来源：文轩观察 证券违法行为的成本已大幅提高，任何试图以行政处罚作为"终点"的侥幸心理都将破灭。 一纸《移送起诉告知书》的送达，让锂矿龙头赣锋锂业四年前的内幕交易旧案波澜再起。 2025年12月29日，赣锋锂业公告称，因涉嫌单位内幕交易罪，该案已由宜春市公安局移送检察机关审查 起诉。 源于2020年的行政处罚如今升级为刑案，不仅使公司面临严峻的法律风险，更将其自身发展拖入了资本 运作受阻与战略转型承压的多重困境之中。 从行政处罚到刑事追责 一纸《移送起诉告知书》让赣锋锂业内幕交易案性质发生了根本性转变。 2025年12月29日，赣锋锂业公告收到宜春市公安局告知书，因涉嫌单位内幕交易罪，案件已被移送检察 机关审查起诉。 案件由2024年7月江西证监局行政处罚进入了刑事司法程序，涉嫌触犯《刑法》，可能面临更严厉的法 律后果。 2024年7月，江西证监局已对该案作出定性。经查明，在2020年江特电机筹划控股权变更的内幕信息敏 感期内，由董事长李良彬决策安排、时任董事会秘书欧阳明具体操作，赣锋锂业公司证券账户买卖 了"*ST江特"股票，最终获利110.53万元。 监管部门认定该行为构成内幕交易，并依法作出处罚：没收赣 ...

证券代码：002460 证券简称：赣锋锂业 编号：临2026-001 江西赣锋锂业集团股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司及其董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，无 虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 1、江西赣锋锂业集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司"或"赣锋 锂业") 于 2025 年 3 月 28 日召开的第五届董事会第九十一次会议、 于 2025 年 6 月 25 日召开 2024 年年度股东会审议通过了《关于 2025 年度公司及子公司对外担保额度预计的议案》，为满足公司及子公司 的发展和生产经营需要，同意公司向子公司提供连带责任保证担保额 度合计人民币 2,521,000 万元，同意子公司向子公司提供连带责任保 证担保额度人民币 1,114,000 万元，两项合计担保总额人民币 3,635,000 万元（包括新增担保和原有担保的展期或续保）。其中公 司及子公司向资产负债率 70%以上的子公司提供总额不超过人民币 1,501,000 万元，向资产负债率 70%以下的子公司（含新设立暂无财 务数据的子公司）提供总额不超过人民币 2,134,000 万元。本次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery narrative is moving closer to industrialization, with multiple companies making significant moves in technology collaboration, equity binding, and mergers to enhance the supply chain and production capacity [2][7]. Group 1: Company Developments - Xinjie Energy has launched its first batch of products from a 10GWh solid-state lithium metal battery project, emphasizing the importance of solid electrolyte film formation and interface integration for applications in eVTOL, robotics, and consumer electronics [2]. - Tiantian Technology has deepened its collaboration with Xinjie Energy by investing 300 million yuan for a 5.7692% stake, transitioning from a simple order relationship to a more integrated equity partnership [3]. - Haimeixing's investment fund has also increased its stake in Xinjie Energy, now holding 0.7634% equity, while the company claims to have streamlined the entire production process for lithium metal solid-state batteries [4]. - Jiyuan Technology has strategically invested 5 million yuan in Shenzhen Lithium Silicon New Materials, which focuses on ultra-thin lithium metal anode materials, positioning itself within the supply chain of Xinjie Energy [5]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy has established a new solid-state battery materials technology company with a registered capital of 20 million yuan, expanding its operations into new materials research and battery manufacturing [6]. - Ganfeng Lithium's solid-state battery platform is targeting high-value applications and overseas markets, collaborating with Zhejiang Fengli New Energy to develop technologies for drones and robotics [7]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The recent activities of these companies indicate a shift from conceptual discussions about solid-state batteries to tangible actions involving capacity, equipment, materials, and capital allocation [7][8]. - The supply chain is increasingly focusing on new nodes such as lithium metal anodes, solid electrolyte film formation, and ultra-thin lithium metal materials, marking a transition from laboratory research to industrial production [7].

Group 1: Corporate Leadership Changes - Zong Fuli has resumed her role as the legal representative and manager of Hongsheng Group as of December 26, 2025, replacing Zheng Qundi [2][13] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - On the first trading day of 2026, Chinese assets, including popular Chinese concept stocks and major Hong Kong indices, experienced significant gains, with the Chinese yuan also strengthening [3][14] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 4.38% on January 3, 2026, with notable individual stock performances including Baidu up 15.03% and Alibaba up 6.24% [19] - The Hong Kong stock market opened strongly in 2026, with the Hang Seng Index and Technology Index increasing by 2.76% and 4%, respectively, driven by gains in technology stocks and a focus on artificial intelligence and chips [20] Group 3: Industry Developments - China Satellite, a leader in the commercial aerospace sector, saw its stock price rise continuously since December 2025, with a significant revenue increase of approximately 85% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a turnaround to profitability [5][16] - The successful IPO of Wallen Technology, a leading domestic GPU company, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marked it as the first domestic GPU stock, with its share price soaring over 100% on the first day of trading [22] Group 4: Regulatory and Compliance Issues - Ganfeng Lithium, a global lithium industry giant, is under criminal investigation for insider trading related to its acquisition of Jiangte Motor, which has impacted its IPO process for its subsidiary Ganfeng Lithium Battery [6][17]

Group 1 - BlackRock, Inc. increased its stake in Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. by 198,400 shares at a price of HKD 55.4049 per share, totaling approximately HKD 10.9923 million [1] - After the increase, BlackRock's total shareholding in Ganfeng Lithium is approximately 28,904,500 shares, representing a holding percentage of 6.01% [1]

Group 1 - BlackRock, Inc. increased its stake in Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. by 198,400 shares at a price of HKD 55.4049 per share, totaling approximately HKD 10.9923 million [1] - After the increase, BlackRock's total shareholding in Ganfeng Lithium is approximately 28.9045 million shares, representing a stake of 6.01% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is currently experiencing a downturn due to oversupply, leading to a significant drop in lithium prices, but a potential recovery is anticipated by 2025 driven by strong demand in energy storage and electric vehicles [1][6][12] Industry Status: Low Point with Signs of Recovery - The lithium industry is in a "winter period" from 2023 to mid-2025, with an overall operating rate around 50% and many high-cost projects either ceasing operations or enduring losses [1] - Lithium prices have dropped over 89% during this downturn, with some projects facing existential threats [1] - As of November 20, 2025, lithium carbonate weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a 3% month-on-month increase, indicating a recovery in supply and demand [3] - Inventory levels for lithium carbonate are at historical lows, with a total of 118,000 tons, down 2,052 tons from the previous period [3] 2025 Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is expected to show a volatile pattern in 2025, with prices initially declining from 73,900 yuan/ton to 59,000 yuan/ton, a drop of 20.11%, before rebounding to a peak of 126,800 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 1.45 million tons in 2025, driven by a 65% year-on-year increase in domestic lithium iron phosphate production [6][8] 2026 Supply and Demand Outlook - The lithium industry is expected to transition from oversupply to a balanced state due to unexpected growth in energy storage demand and the continued rollout of new electric vehicle applications [6] - Energy storage demand is projected to reach 345,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, with expectations of exceeding 500,000 tons in 2026, marking a tenfold increase from 2021 [6] - The global lithium supply is estimated at 1.57 million tons LCE in 2025, with further increases expected in 2026, leading to a narrowing of the oversupply to approximately 30,000 tons [8][10] Price Support Factors - Key factors supporting lithium prices include historically low inventory levels, strong growth in demand from energy storage and electric vehicles, and a willingness among mining companies to maintain price levels [11] - The lowest lithium price in 2025 was 58,000 yuan/ton, which has already impacted high-cost projects, but with improved processing profits, production enthusiasm is expected to rise [11] - Predictions indicate that lithium prices in 2026 will range between 70,000 and 130,000 yuan/ton, with a gradual upward shift in price levels as the industry moves towards a tighter balance [11] Industry Cycle and Valuation - The lithium industry is entering a recovery phase after a prolonged downturn, with historical comparisons suggesting that recovery to profitability may take time [12] - Current valuations for lithium-related companies are at historical lows, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery as profit expectations improve [12] - Leading companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are expected to benefit the most from any price rebounds, with current price-to-book ratios significantly below historical averages [12]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has been implicated in insider trading and has been sent for prosecution after receiving a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau, following an administrative penalty from the Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau for violating securities laws [1][2] Group 1: Insider Trading Allegations - Ganfeng Lithium received a notice of prosecution on December 29, 2025, for suspected insider trading, which has been forwarded to the procuratorate for review and prosecution [1] - The company was previously penalized by the Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau in July 2024, which included the confiscation of illegal gains amounting to 1.1053 million yuan and a fine of 3.3159 million yuan [2] - The insider trading incident involved Ganfeng Lithium profiting over 1.1 million yuan while trading shares of Jiangte Motor during a sensitive period of cooperation discussions in 2020 [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Corporate Actions - The insider trading allegations have affected Ganfeng Lithium's plans for the spin-off listing of its subsidiary, Ganfeng Lithium Electric [2] - In March 2024, the company announced a buyback plan to repurchase 499 million shares for a total price of 1.6 billion yuan, which may be related to the stalled IPO of Ganfeng Lithium Electric [2] - The buyback agreement stipulates that if the actual controller of Ganfeng Lithium is involved in criminal activities unrelated to the company's business, it may trigger mandatory buyback conditions [2]

（於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） （股份代號：1772） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條 刊 發。 根據中華人民共和國的有關法例規定，江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司（「本 公 司」）在 深 圳 證 券 交 易 所 網 站（http://www.szse.cn/）刊 發 了 以 下 公 告。茲 載 列 如 下，僅 供 參 閱。 承董事會命 江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司 董事長 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 李良彬 中 國‧江 西 二 零 二 五年十 二 月 三 十 一 日 於本公告日 期，董事會成員包括本公司執行董事李良彬先 生、王曉申先 生、沈海博先 生、黃婷女士及李承霖先 生；本公司非執行董事羅榮女 士； 本公司獨立非執行董事王金本先 生、黃浩鈞先 生、徐一新女士及徐光華 先 生；以及本公司職工董事廖萃女 士。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supply and demand of lithium carbonate will both grow at a high - speed. The growth in energy storage will support the price of lithium carbonate to fluctuate in a relatively strong range. The demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate, and the oversupply volume will slightly decrease compared to 2025. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain volatile between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][3]. - The risk points are the accelerated production of upstream mines and the demand growth rate falling short of expectations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review (1) Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Trend - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a trend of first declining and then rising. From January to May, due to the panic of the tariff war and the oversupply, the price dropped below 60,000 yuan. From June to July, influenced by the "anti - involution" policy and the price approaching the cost line, the price rose to 70,000 - 80,000 yuan. On August 8, concerns about supply contraction caused the price to hit the daily limit, and then it gradually fell back. From October to November, due to increased energy storage demand and decreased mica ore supply, the price returned to 100,000 yuan. In December, the price continued to rise and finally closed at around 120,000 yuan. The annual increase of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 55%, and the price fluctuation range was 99%. The trading volume and open interest reached record highs [7][8][9]. (2) Lithium Carbonate Spot and Basis - Spot prices: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose from 75,000 yuan at the beginning of 2025 to 112,000 yuan at the end, with a 49% increase. The price of lithium hydroxide rose from 70,000 yuan/ton to 102,000 yuan, with a 46% increase. The price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide widened from about 5,000 yuan at the beginning to 11,000 yuan at the end, indicating stronger downstream demand for lithium carbonate. - Basis: The main basis once expanded to - 10,000 yuan/ton or lower, setting a record since listing. The correlation between futures and spot prices was strong, but when futures prices rose rapidly, the increase in the SMM spot average price was relatively small [14][19]. (3) Price Trends in the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In 2025, prices in the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally increased. Cobalt - lithium oxide had a growth rate of over 170% due to the sharp rise in cobalt prices. Lithium hexafluorophosphate had a growth rate of over 160% due to limited supply in the phosphochemical industry and unexpected demand. The price of upstream lithium ore increased by 82%. The growth rates of intermediate raw materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were over 55%. The growth rates of downstream battery cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials were about 35% [20]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis (1) Domestic Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis - Salt lake lithium extraction: It is expected that the output in 2026 will reach 276,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons compared to 2025, with a nearly 55% increase. The largest output increments come from the Chaerhan Salt Lake of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., the Laguo Co Salt Lake of Zijin Mining, and the Mami Cuo Salt Lake of Zangge Mining. In the future, the output growth will mainly come from Tibetan salt lakes, with an increment of 41,000 tons in 2026, accounting for over 40% of the total increment [23]. - Mica ore lithium extraction: The output in 2026 is expected to be 232,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to 2025, a 63% year - on - year increase. The increments mainly come from the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mine, the increased production at the Qiankeng Lithium Mine, and the commissioning of mica mines in Inner Mongolia and Hunan [27]. - Spodumene lithium extraction: The output in 2026 is expected to be 86,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons, a 62% year - on - year increase. The main increments come from the Dahongliutan Lithium Mine of Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals, the Jiada Lithium Mine of Dazhong Mining, and the Lijiagou Spodumene Mine [34]. - Overall, in 2025, although the output of mica - produced lithium carbonate decreased, the increase in salt lake and spodumene output led to a 20% increase in domestic lithium carbonate output. In 2026, due to the significant increase in capacity at the salt lake and mica ends, the domestic lithium carbonate output is expected to reach 594,000 tons, a 59% increase [37]. (2) Overseas Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis - South American salt lakes: The lithium carbonate output in 2026 is expected to be 517,000 tons, an increase of 64,000 tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. The increments mainly come from the Atacama Salt Lake of SQM, the Centenario - Ratones Salt Lake of Eramet, and the 3Q Salt Lake of Zijin Mining [39]. - Australian spodumene mines: The output of Australian mines is expected to increase slightly by 17,000 tons in 2026, reaching 492,000 tons. The increase mainly comes from the Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, and Holland mines, while the Wodgina and Marion mines will reduce production [45]. - African spodumene mines: The output in 2025 was estimated to be 211,000 tons, an 82% year - on - year increase compared to 2024. It is expected to reach 349,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 138,000 tons, a nearly 40% year - on - year increase. The main increments in 2026 come from the Goulamina Mine of Ganfeng Lithium, the Bikita Mine of Zhongke Resources, the Arcadia Mine of Huayou Cobalt, and the Manono Mine of Zijin Mining [49]. - American spodumene mines: The output in 2026 is expected to be 75,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. The Grota do Cirilo Mine in Brazil is expected to fully increase its capacity in Q1 2026, and the NAL Mine of North American Lithium is expected to maintain its output [56]. - Overall overseas supply: From 2025 to 2026, the overseas supply growth rates were 25% and 18% respectively. In 2026, the overseas new lithium carbonate output was 222,000 tons, with a total output of 1.434 million tons [61]. (3) Global Lithium Carbonate Supply and Cost Analysis - Global supply: In 2025, the global lithium carbonate output was estimated to be 1.67 million tons, a 24% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 2.13 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. The domestic supply will increase by 220,000 tons, and the overseas supply will increase by 220,000 tons [62]. - Global cost: The global lithium carbonate cash cost is estimated to be 55,000 yuan/ton at the 80% cash cost line. Considering a depreciation cost of 5,000 yuan/ton, the production cost is expected to be 60,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Demand Analysis (1) Power Battery Demand Analysis - In 2025, from January to November, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% respectively. It is expected that the sales volume in 2025 will be 16.6 million, a 29% year - on - year increase. In 2026, due to the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax incentives in China and the expiration of tax credits in the US, the sales growth rates in these two countries will decline. However, Europe and other regions are expected to maintain high demand. It is estimated that the global new - energy vehicle sales growth rate in 2026 will be 22%, and the global power battery installation growth rate may reach 28% [71][73]. (2) Energy Storage Battery Demand Analysis - In 2025, the new - energy power generation installed capacity in China increased significantly. After the end of the mandatory energy storage allocation policy, the domestic new - energy storage market first declined and then rose. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of new - energy storage in China reached 101.3 GW, a 110% year - on - year increase. Overseas energy storage demand also increased significantly. It is estimated that the global energy storage battery shipment in 2026 will maintain a high growth rate of about 60%, reaching 1040 GWh [81][84][87]. (3) Global Lithium Carbonate Demand Analysis - In 2025, the power battery demand drove the lithium carbonate demand to increase by 210,000 tons, a 31% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 1.08 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year increase. The energy storage demand drove the lithium carbonate demand to increase by 190,000 tons in 2025, an 83% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 680,000 tons, an increase of 250,000 tons, a 60% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the total global lithium carbonate demand was estimated to be 1.55 million tons, a 36% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it is expected to reach 2.02 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase [92]. 4. Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Analysis - In 2025, due to multiple factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, domestic mica ore production reduction, and the explosion of global energy storage demand, the oversupply contradiction of lithium carbonate was gradually alleviated, and the market was in a state of tight supply - demand balance. - In 2026, on the supply side, domestic supply will increase by nearly 59% year - on - year, and overseas supply will increase by 18%. The global lithium carbonate output will reach 2.13 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. On the demand side, the energy storage battery demand will maintain a high growth rate, and the power battery demand growth rate will slightly decline. The global lithium carbonate demand will reach 2.02 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. Overall, the demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][3][94].