Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supply and demand of lithium carbonate will both grow at a high - speed. The growth in energy storage will support the price of lithium carbonate to fluctuate in a relatively strong range. The demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate, and the oversupply volume will slightly decrease compared to 2025. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain volatile between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][3]. - The risk points are the accelerated production of upstream mines and the demand growth rate falling short of expectations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review (1) Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Trend - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a trend of first declining and then rising. From January to May, due to the panic of the tariff war and the oversupply, the price dropped below 60,000 yuan. From June to July, influenced by the "anti - involution" policy and the price approaching the cost line, the price rose to 70,000 - 80,000 yuan. On August 8, concerns about supply contraction caused the price to hit the daily limit, and then it gradually fell back. From October to November, due to increased energy storage demand and decreased mica ore supply, the price returned to 100,000 yuan. In December, the price continued to rise and finally closed at around 120,000 yuan. The annual increase of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 55%, and the price fluctuation range was 99%. The trading volume and open interest reached record highs [7][8][9]. (2) Lithium Carbonate Spot and Basis - Spot prices: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose from 75,000 yuan at the beginning of 2025 to 112,000 yuan at the end, with a 49% increase. The price of lithium hydroxide rose from 70,000 yuan/ton to 102,000 yuan, with a 46% increase. The price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide widened from about 5,000 yuan at the beginning to 11,000 yuan at the end, indicating stronger downstream demand for lithium carbonate. - Basis: The main basis once expanded to - 10,000 yuan/ton or lower, setting a record since listing. The correlation between futures and spot prices was strong, but when futures prices rose rapidly, the increase in the SMM spot average price was relatively small [14][19]. (3) Price Trends in the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In 2025, prices in the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally increased. Cobalt - lithium oxide had a growth rate of over 170% due to the sharp rise in cobalt prices. Lithium hexafluorophosphate had a growth rate of over 160% due to limited supply in the phosphochemical industry and unexpected demand. The price of upstream lithium ore increased by 82%. The growth rates of intermediate raw materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were over 55%. The growth rates of downstream battery cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials were about 35% [20]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis (1) Domestic Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis - Salt lake lithium extraction: It is expected that the output in 2026 will reach 276,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons compared to 2025, with a nearly 55% increase. The largest output increments come from the Chaerhan Salt Lake of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., the Laguo Co Salt Lake of Zijin Mining, and the Mami Cuo Salt Lake of Zangge Mining. In the future, the output growth will mainly come from Tibetan salt lakes, with an increment of 41,000 tons in 2026, accounting for over 40% of the total increment [23]. - Mica ore lithium extraction: The output in 2026 is expected to be 232,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to 2025, a 63% year - on - year increase. The increments mainly come from the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mine, the increased production at the Qiankeng Lithium Mine, and the commissioning of mica mines in Inner Mongolia and Hunan [27]. - Spodumene lithium extraction: The output in 2026 is expected to be 86,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons, a 62% year - on - year increase. The main increments come from the Dahongliutan Lithium Mine of Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals, the Jiada Lithium Mine of Dazhong Mining, and the Lijiagou Spodumene Mine [34]. - Overall, in 2025, although the output of mica - produced lithium carbonate decreased, the increase in salt lake and spodumene output led to a 20% increase in domestic lithium carbonate output. In 2026, due to the significant increase in capacity at the salt lake and mica ends, the domestic lithium carbonate output is expected to reach 594,000 tons, a 59% increase [37]. (2) Overseas Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis - South American salt lakes: The lithium carbonate output in 2026 is expected to be 517,000 tons, an increase of 64,000 tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. The increments mainly come from the Atacama Salt Lake of SQM, the Centenario - Ratones Salt Lake of Eramet, and the 3Q Salt Lake of Zijin Mining [39]. - Australian spodumene mines: The output of Australian mines is expected to increase slightly by 17,000 tons in 2026, reaching 492,000 tons. The increase mainly comes from the Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, and Holland mines, while the Wodgina and Marion mines will reduce production [45]. - African spodumene mines: The output in 2025 was estimated to be 211,000 tons, an 82% year - on - year increase compared to 2024. It is expected to reach 349,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 138,000 tons, a nearly 40% year - on - year increase. The main increments in 2026 come from the Goulamina Mine of Ganfeng Lithium, the Bikita Mine of Zhongke Resources, the Arcadia Mine of Huayou Cobalt, and the Manono Mine of Zijin Mining [49]. - American spodumene mines: The output in 2026 is expected to be 75,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. The Grota do Cirilo Mine in Brazil is expected to fully increase its capacity in Q1 2026, and the NAL Mine of North American Lithium is expected to maintain its output [56]. - Overall overseas supply: From 2025 to 2026, the overseas supply growth rates were 25% and 18% respectively. In 2026, the overseas new lithium carbonate output was 222,000 tons, with a total output of 1.434 million tons [61]. (3) Global Lithium Carbonate Supply and Cost Analysis - Global supply: In 2025, the global lithium carbonate output was estimated to be 1.67 million tons, a 24% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 2.13 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. The domestic supply will increase by 220,000 tons, and the overseas supply will increase by 220,000 tons [62]. - Global cost: The global lithium carbonate cash cost is estimated to be 55,000 yuan/ton at the 80% cash cost line. Considering a depreciation cost of 5,000 yuan/ton, the production cost is expected to be 60,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Demand Analysis (1) Power Battery Demand Analysis - In 2025, from January to November, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% respectively. It is expected that the sales volume in 2025 will be 16.6 million, a 29% year - on - year increase. In 2026, due to the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax incentives in China and the expiration of tax credits in the US, the sales growth rates in these two countries will decline. However, Europe and other regions are expected to maintain high demand. It is estimated that the global new - energy vehicle sales growth rate in 2026 will be 22%, and the global power battery installation growth rate may reach 28% [71][73]. (2) Energy Storage Battery Demand Analysis - In 2025, the new - energy power generation installed capacity in China increased significantly. After the end of the mandatory energy storage allocation policy, the domestic new - energy storage market first declined and then rose. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of new - energy storage in China reached 101.3 GW, a 110% year - on - year increase. Overseas energy storage demand also increased significantly. It is estimated that the global energy storage battery shipment in 2026 will maintain a high growth rate of about 60%, reaching 1040 GWh [81][84][87]. (3) Global Lithium Carbonate Demand Analysis - In 2025, the power battery demand drove the lithium carbonate demand to increase by 210,000 tons, a 31% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 1.08 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year increase. The energy storage demand drove the lithium carbonate demand to increase by 190,000 tons in 2025, an 83% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 680,000 tons, an increase of 250,000 tons, a 60% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the total global lithium carbonate demand was estimated to be 1.55 million tons, a 36% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it is expected to reach 2.02 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase [92]. 4. Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Analysis - In 2025, due to multiple factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, domestic mica ore production reduction, and the explosion of global energy storage demand, the oversupply contradiction of lithium carbonate was gradually alleviated, and the market was in a state of tight supply - demand balance. - In 2026, on the supply side, domestic supply will increase by nearly 59% year - on - year, and overseas supply will increase by 18%. The global lithium carbonate output will reach 2.13 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. On the demand side, the energy storage battery demand will maintain a high growth rate, and the power battery demand growth rate will slightly decline. The global lithium carbonate demand will reach 2.02 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. Overall, the demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][3][94].

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业深度 2025 年 12 月 31 日 行业及产业 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外云厂商 资本开支高增长，电力设备需求高企》 2025-12-30 《光储行业跟踪：11 月国内光伏装机同比增 长，双玻组件价格小幅上涨》2025-12-30 《锂电行业跟踪：动力和储能电池需求旺盛， 储能电芯和系统均价上涨》2025-12-30 《2026 年电新行业策略报告：新能源基本业务 向上+国家战略安全资产赋能有望成为最强主 线》2025-12-30 盛，锂电材料价格回升》2025-12-23 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 联系人 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com ——固态电池行业深度报告 材料和工艺设备体系革新，固态电池产 业化加速 强于大市 投资要点： 固态电池电解质固态化是核心，具有能量密度和安全性优势，体型的硫化物全固态电池是趋 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has been accused of insider trading related to stock transactions of Jiangte Motor, with the case now transferred to the prosecution for review and indictment [3] Group 1: Company Operations - Ganfeng Lithium announced that all production and operational activities remain normal and orderly despite the legal issues [3] - The insider trading allegations are linked to a previously disclosed historical event, indicating that the company had communicated this issue earlier [3] Group 2: Legal Proceedings - The company received a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau regarding the transfer of the case for prosecution due to alleged insider trading by the company [3] - The case involves accusations of unit crime related to insider trading, specifically concerning transactions with Jiangte Motor, another company in the lithium battery supply chain [3]

Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) experienced a decline of nearly 4%, with a current drop of 3.85%, trading at 52.5 HKD [2] - The trading volume reached 360 million HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) experienced a nearly 4% decline in stock price, attributed to allegations of insider trading involving another lithium industry company, Jiangte Motor (002176) [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of the report, Ganfeng Lithium's stock price fell by 3.85% to 52.5 HKD, with a trading volume of 360 million HKD [1] - The company stated that all production and operational activities remain normal and orderly [1] Group 2: Legal Issues - Ganfeng Lithium received a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau regarding the transfer of prosecution due to alleged insider trading [1] - The case has been forwarded to the procuratorial authority for review and prosecution [1] - The insider trading allegations are related to historical events previously disclosed by the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) experienced a nearly 4% decline in stock price, attributed to allegations of insider trading involving the company, which has been referred to the prosecution for further examination [1] Group 1: Company Operations - Ganfeng Lithium reported that all production and operational activities remain normal and orderly despite the ongoing legal issues [1] - The company indicated that the current allegations are related to previously disclosed historical events and are not expected to impact normal business operations [1] Group 2: Legal Issues - The company received a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau regarding the prosecution for suspected insider trading, specifically related to stock transactions involving Jiangte Motor, another company in the lithium battery industry [1]

Company Overview - Ganfeng Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, and was established on March 2, 2000. The company was listed on August 10, 2010. Its main business involves research, development, production, and sales of various deep-processed lithium products [1] - The revenue composition of Ganfeng Lithium includes lithium series products (56.78%), lithium battery series products (35.52%), and others (7.70%) [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ganfeng Lithium achieved an operating income of 14.625 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.02%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 25.52 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 103.99% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Ganfeng Lithium has distributed a total of 6.162 billion yuan in dividends, with 3.933 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Market Activity - On December 31, Ganfeng Lithium's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 62.85 yuan per share, with a total transaction volume of 1.653 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.15%. The company's total market capitalization is 131.777 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, Ganfeng Lithium's stock price has increased by 80.29%, but it has seen a decline of 5.90% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" four times this year, with the most recent appearance on October 13, where it recorded a net buy of -165 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Ganfeng Lithium had 372,500 shareholders, an increase of 31.18% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person is 3,243, a decrease of 23.77% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest shareholder with 6.9199 million shares, a decrease of 993,700 shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal industry, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 0.72% and specific stocks like Guocheng Mining (000688) and Huayou Cobalt (603799) showing significant gains [1] - The COMEX gold futures increased by 0.2% to $4,352.3 per ounce, while spot gold rose by 0.17% to $4,338.83 per ounce, indicating a strong momentum in precious metals [1] - The article mentions a policy from the National Development and Reform Commission encouraging mergers and reorganizations in resource-constrained industries like alumina, which has led to a significant rise in alumina prices [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159880) closely tracks the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals, which includes 50 securities that reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals account for 52.34% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) being prominent [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has received a notice from the Yichun Public Security Bureau regarding prosecution for alleged insider trading, with the case now transferred to the procuratorate for review and prosecution. The company asserts that its production and operational activities remain normal and orderly, and the matter is related to previously disclosed historical events, expected not to impact normal operations [1] Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium was notified of a prosecution for alleged insider trading, which has been transferred to the procuratorate [1] - The company maintains that all production and operational activities are functioning normally [1] - The insider trading allegations are linked to a previously disclosed historical event, indicating that the company does not anticipate any operational disruptions [1] Group 2 - In July 2024, Ganfeng Lithium received an administrative penalty decision from the Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau for insider trading related to a certain A-share listed company [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission initiated a case against the company on January 24, 2022, resulting in the confiscation of illegal gains amounting to 1.1053 million yuan and a fine of 3.3159 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The case of Ganfeng Lithium's insider trading, which has now led to criminal prosecution five years after administrative penalties, serves as a significant indicator of stricter regulatory enforcement in the capital market, highlighting that even leading companies can be held accountable for misconduct [1][20][31] Summary by Sections Administrative and Criminal Proceedings - Ganfeng Lithium has been informed of its transfer to the prosecution for suspected insider trading, following prior administrative penalties issued by the Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau, which included fines and confiscation of illegal gains totaling approximately 1.1 million yuan [3][21][22] - The penalties included a fine of 3.3 million yuan and individual fines for the chairman and secretary, indicating a dual penalty system where both the company and responsible individuals face consequences [4][21] Insider Trading Details - The insider trading involved transactions related to Jiangte Electric, where Ganfeng Lithium's executives engaged in stock trading during a sensitive information period, resulting in a profit of approximately 1.1 million yuan [5][7][27] - The trading occurred between June 23 and July 2, 2020, with Ganfeng Lithium purchasing over 15 million shares and later selling them for a profit, despite the company being aware of the sensitive information [6][25][27] Regulatory Implications - The case signals a potential normalization of retrospective investigations in the capital market, where past administrative violations can lead to criminal charges, reflecting a shift in regulatory attitudes towards insider trading [14][31] - The enforcement actions against Ganfeng Lithium are part of a broader trend where the regulatory body is intensifying scrutiny on insider trading, emphasizing that no matter the size or contribution of a company, violations will be met with serious consequences [15][31][32] Market Impact - The case serves as a warning to other companies and market participants, reinforcing the message that insider trading will not be tolerated, and even minor infractions can lead to severe penalties [16][32] - The regulatory environment is evolving, with a focus on maintaining market integrity and protecting investors, particularly in sectors experiencing rapid growth and speculation, such as renewable energy [16][32]