证 券 研 究 报 告 "制造强国"实干系列周报(11/30期) 证券分析师： 韩强 A0230518060003 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 王珂 A0230521120002 刘正 A0230518100001 马天一 A0230525040004 戴文杰 A0230522100006 黄莎 A0230522010002 武雨桐 A0230520090001 李蕾 A0230519080008 穆少阳 A0230524070009 刘宏达 A0230524020002 刘建伟 A0230521100003 联系人：何佳霖 A0230523080002 2025.12.3 核心观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 商业航天：1）制造及发射端关注份额或价值量在降本趋势下有望维持相对稳定或具备提升潜力的核心标的；2）应用端 关注通信终端基带、射频芯片及相控阵天线配套标的；3）航天科技集团拥有较多体外资产，有较强并购重组预期。重点 关注标的：1）卫星制造：上海瀚迅+臻镭科技+航天电子，2）应用终端：海格通信+国博电子+通宇通讯，3）运营服务： 中国卫通+星图测控+中科星图； ...

消息面上，国家航天局已于近期设立商业航天司，相关业务正在逐步开展，标志着我国商业航天产业迎来专职监管机构，未来将持续推动我国商业航天高质 量发展，产业链有望全线受益。 近年来，我国商业航天在政策牵引、技术突破与市场驱动下，以全产业链协同创新，完成了历史性的跨越。国家航天局相关负责人介绍，当前我国商业航天 企业数量超600家，在确保安全的前提下逐步释放商业航天发展潜力。 截至2025年12月1日 10:58，中证通用航空主题指数(931855)强势上涨2.11%，成分股雷科防务(002413)上涨10.05%，光启技术(002625)上涨10.01%，华力创通 (300045)上涨5.66%，广联航空(300900)，中简科技(300777)等个股跟涨。通用航空ETF基金(561660)上涨2.11%，最新价报1.02元。拉长时间看，截至2025年 11月28日，通用航空ETF基金近1周累计上涨3.76%，涨幅排名可比基金1/3。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 通用航空ETF基金紧密跟踪中证通用航空主题指数，中证通用航空主题指数选取50只业务涉及航空材料及零部件、通航飞行器制造、通航基础设施、通 ...

资金流入比率方面，雷科防务、亚光科技、海格通信等流入比率居前，主力资金净流入率分别为 20.05%、11.53%、10.21%。（数据宝） 太赫兹概念资金流入榜 截至11月28日收盘，太赫兹概念上涨2.69%，位居概念板块涨幅第4，板块内，18股上涨，雷科防务涨 停，亚光科技、天银机电、海特高新等涨幅居前，分别上涨13.48%、6.03%、3.91%。跌幅居前的有中 兴通讯、亨通光电、长飞光纤等，分别下跌0.50%、0.50%、0.25%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钛白粉概念 | 4.31 | 禽流感 | -0.76 | | 海南自贸区 | 3.54 | 流感 | -0.49 | | 乳业 | 2.82 | 维生素 | -0.39 | | 太赫兹 | 2.69 | 肝炎概念 | -0.31 | | 磷化工 | 2.32 | 生物疫苗 | -0.30 | | 商业航天 | 2.25 | 医药电商 | -0.28 | | 福建自贸区 | 2.21 | 仿制药一致性评价 | -0.25 | ...

Core Insights - The military electronics sector experienced a rise of 2.08% on November 28, with Hongda Electronics leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] Funding Flow Analysis - The military electronics sector saw a net inflow of 1.754 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.034 billion yuan [2] - Key stocks in the military electronics sector showed varied funding flows, with Aerospace Development receiving a net inflow of 933 million yuan, representing 18.04% of the main fund's total [2] - Other notable stocks include: - Leike Defense with a net inflow of 334 million yuan (16.50%) - Aiguang Technology with a net inflow of 239 million yuan (11.63%) - Qiyi with a net inflow of 156 million yuan (20.45%) [2]

Core Insights - The Terahertz concept sector has seen a rise of 4.47%, ranking fourth among concept sectors in terms of growth [1] - Key stocks within this sector include LeiKe Defense, Tianhai Defense, Tianhe Defense, and Haige Communication, with LeiKe Defense hitting the daily limit up [1][2] Market Performance - The Terahertz sector had a net inflow of 488 million yuan from main funds, with 8 stocks receiving net inflows and 5 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow [2] - LeiKe Defense led the net inflow with 341 million yuan, followed by ZTE Corporation, Haige Communication, and Tianhe Defense with net inflows of 223 million yuan, 108 million yuan, and 68 million yuan respectively [2][3] Stock Performance - LeiKe Defense recorded a daily increase of 10.02% with a turnover rate of 9.45% and a net inflow ratio of 44.60% [3] - Other notable performers include ZTE Corporation with a 1.52% increase and a net inflow ratio of 7.07%, and Haige Communication with a 5.74% increase and a net inflow ratio of 6.95% [3][4]

Core Insights - The domestic aircraft carrier concept index rose by 3.97%, ranking 8th among concept sectors, with 34 stocks increasing in value, including China Shipbuilding Defense and China Marine Defense reaching their daily limit [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The leading stocks in the domestic aircraft carrier sector included China Shipbuilding Defense, which saw a net inflow of 5.14 billion yuan, followed by China Marine Defense and Haige Communication with net inflows of 4.25 billion yuan and 1.08 billion yuan respectively [1] - The overall net inflow of funds into the domestic aircraft carrier concept was 15.91 billion yuan, with 29 stocks experiencing net inflows [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The top performers in the domestic aircraft carrier sector included China Shipbuilding, which increased by 3.59%, and China Marine Defense, which surged by 9.99% [2] - The net inflow ratios for leading stocks were as follows: China Shipbuilding Defense at 15.57%, Taihao Technology at 13.23%, and China Marine Defense at 11.29% [2] Group 3: Additional Stock Insights - Other notable stocks included Hailanxin with a 4.34% increase and Guorui Technology with a 7.79% increase, both showing significant trading activity [3][4] - The trading volume and turnover rates for these stocks indicate strong investor interest, particularly in the context of the domestic aircraft carrier sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the telecommunications and AI computing chain, including ZTE Corporation, NewEase, Ruijie Networks, Zhongji Xuchuang, China Telecom, Haige Communication, China Mobile, and Shanghai Hantong [9][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI "bubble" and the effectiveness of Scaling Law, while expressing optimism about the performance of Gemini 3 and Banana Pro, which have exceeded initial expectations [2][3]. - The AI computing chain is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on Google's core components such as optical modules and liquid cooling systems [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the generational leap in capabilities of Gemini 3, which has achieved significant benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal tasks, thereby shortening the time from investment to revenue [20][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 2.51% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 3.90% and 5.13%, respectively [2][13]. - Concerns about the overseas AI "bubble" are prevalent, particularly regarding the effectiveness of Scaling Law and the sustainability of ROI [2][3]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies within the AI computing chain, including: - ZTE Corporation (Buy, target price: 64.34) [41] - NewEase (Buy, target price: 476.71) [41] - Ruijie Networks (Buy, target price: 102.51) [41] - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price: 626.68) [41] - China Telecom (Buy, target price: 9.11) [41] - Haige Communication (Buy, target price: 13.70) [41] - China Mobile (Buy, target price: 126.20) [41] - Shanghai Hantong (Buy, target price: 28.28) [41] - China Unicom (Hold, target price: 7.56) [41] AI Computing Chain Insights - The report notes that the performance of Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro has significantly advanced the capabilities in reasoning and multimodal tasks, indicating a strong integration into the AI ecosystem [20][14]. - The demand for AI computing resources is expected to grow, driven by the increasing need for reasoning capabilities and the expansion of cloud token scales [20][14]. Financial Performance - ZTE Corporation reported a revenue of 100.52 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, but a net profit decline of 33% [42]. - NewEase's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222%, with a net profit increase of 284% [44]. - Ruijie Networks reported a revenue of 10.68 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with a net profit increase of 65% [46].

Core Viewpoint - The short message concept sector is experiencing significant strength, with several stocks reaching their daily limit up [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Jiu Zhi Yang and Lei Ke Defense have hit the daily limit up [1] - Other notable stocks with strong performance include Electric Science Chip, Zhenxin Technology, Huali Chuangtong, Haige Communication, China Satellite, and Hezhong Shizhuang, all showing considerable gains [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific situation is increasing, which may accelerate the equipment construction in China, focusing on new combat capabilities [2][12] - China's high-end aviation equipment showcased at the Dubai Airshow is expected to further expand the military trade market [12][15] - The Fujian aircraft carrier has conducted its first live training at sea, indicating a significant advancement in operational capabilities and technology [12][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for new combat capabilities and military trade as key growth areas [19] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights various investment targets across different segments, including: - Engine and fuel chain: Companies like Xi'an Aero Engine (600893), Western Superconducting (688122), and others [19][20] - New quality and domains: Companies such as Aerospace Electronics (600879), Haige Communication (002465), and others [19][20] - Military electronics: Companies like Aerospace Electric (002025), Zhonghang Optical (002179), and others [19][20] - Military trade and main equipment: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760), AVIC Chengfei (302132), and others [19][20] Industry News and Market Performance - The report notes that the defense and military industry index has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only -1.72% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's -3.90% [22][25] - The report provides a detailed analysis of weekly market performance, indicating that the defense and military sector remains resilient amid broader market declines [22][25] Key Events and Developments - The report outlines significant recent events, including: - The U.S. government approved a new round of arms sales to Japan, which may heighten regional tensions and prompt China to expedite its military equipment development [12][9] - The successful live training of the Fujian aircraft carrier, showcasing advanced operational capabilities [12][18] - The participation of Chinese high-end military equipment in international exhibitions, enhancing China's presence in the global military trade market [12][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Haige Communication's stock has increased by 5.04%, reaching a price of 11.89 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 440 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.52%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 29.509 billion yuan [1] - Haige Communication, established on July 20, 2000, and listed on August 31, 2010, is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of military communication and navigation equipment [1] - The company's main business revenue composition is as follows: smart ecology 48.53%, wireless communication 30.93%, Beidou navigation 12.57%, aerospace 6.28%, and others 1.69% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of Haige Communication's top ten circulating shareholders, Guotai Fund's Guotai Zhongzheng Military Industry ETF (512660) reduced its holdings by 3.7288 million shares in the third quarter, now holding 19.3117 million shares, which accounts for 0.78% of the circulating shares [2] - The Guotai Zhongzheng Military Industry ETF (512660) was established on July 26, 2016, with a latest scale of 14.109 billion yuan, achieving a year-to-date return of 9.68% and a one-year return of 4.53% [2] - The fund manager of Guotai Zhongzheng Military Industry ETF is Ai Xiaojun, who has a cumulative tenure of 11 years and 319 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 169.029 billion yuan [3]