%% research.95579.com %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨天齐锂业（ ） 002466.SZ [资Ta源b型le_锂T龙itle头] ，周期底部再出发 ——天齐锂业 年年报点评 2023 报告要点 [公Ta司bl发e_布Su2m0m23ar年y]年报，实现营业收入405.03亿元，同比+0.13%；实现归母净利72.97亿元， 同比-69.75%，实现扣非归母净利71.77亿元，同比-68.88%。2023Q4公司实现营业收入71.04 亿元，环比-17%；实现归母净利-8.01亿元，扣非归母净利-8.06亿元，环比均转亏。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. (002466.SZ) [2][3] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 was negatively impacted by falling lithium prices and increased minority shareholder losses, with a significant decline in net profit [1][2] - Despite the challenges, there are long-term expansion plans in the resource sector, with projected increases in lithium chemical production capacity [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 40.503 billion, a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 7.297 billion, down 69.75% year-on-year [1][3] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a net loss of CNY 800 million [1] - The company plans to increase its lithium compound production capacity to 143,800 tons per year through new projects [2][3] Market Conditions - The report highlights a downward adjustment in lithium production guidance from Greenbushes, indicating potential industry consolidation [1][2] - Global demand for lithium carbonate is projected at 1.259 million tons, with supply at 1.401 million tons, suggesting a potential price floor around CNY 75,600 per ton [1] Earnings Forecast - Due to recent declines in lithium prices, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced to CNY 1.84 and CNY 2.64, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at CNY 3.44 [2][3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 26X, 18X, and 14X [2][3] Production Capacity - As of the 2023 report, the company's lithium chemical production capacity reached 88,800 tons, with plans for further expansion [2][3] - The resource end, specifically the Talison lithium concentrate, is expected to reach a production capacity of 2.14 million tons per year after the commissioning of a new processing plant [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2][15] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.50 billion yuan in 2023, a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year, but the net profit dropped significantly by 69.75% to 7.30 billion yuan [3][6] - The company is focusing on increasing production capacity and solidifying its upstream lithium resource layout, with strategic partnerships to enhance its market position [10][11] - The company has adjusted its lithium pricing mechanism to a monthly basis from a quarterly basis, which is expected to improve pricing stability [10][11] Financial Performance - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024E revenue is projected at 11.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.0% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [3][15] - Net profit for 2024E is forecasted at 4.53 billion yuan, down 38.0% year-on-year [3][15] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is expected to be 2.76 yuan in 2024E, with a PE ratio of 17.4 [3][15] Production and Inventory - The company achieved a total lithium concentrate production of 1.52 million tons in 2023, with a significant increase attributed to higher ore grades and improved recovery rates [3][8] - As of the end of 2023, lithium concentrate inventory stood at approximately 409,400 tons, while lithium compound inventory was about 13,200 tons [3][8] Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding its lithium production capacity, with plans to increase its mid-term capacity to over 140,000 tons per year [10][12] - The company holds a 22.16% stake in SQM, which is expected to contribute positively to its investment returns as SQM plans to increase its lithium production in 2024 [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Tianqi Lithium [4][8] - The target price is set at 56.16, down from the previous forecast of 62.85 [4][8] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 40.503 billion, a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 7.297 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 69.75% year-on-year [8] - Due to the anticipated decline in lithium prices, the EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 2.16 and 2.60 respectively, from previous estimates of 4.19 and 4.36 [8] - The report highlights the company's ongoing expansion in resource capabilities both domestically and internationally, with a focus on increasing lithium production [8] Financial Summary - The company reported a gross profit margin of 85.0% in 2023, with a projected decline to 65.0% in 2024 [9] - The net profit margin for 2023 is expected to be 18.0%, with a forecasted increase to 34.6% by 2026 [9] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 73.228 billion in 2023 to 93.245 billion by 2026 [12] Production and Resource Expansion - Lithium concentrate production is expected to reach 152.23 thousand tons, with sales of 84.47 thousand tons, marking increases of 12.9% and 11.3% year-on-year respectively [8] - The company has updated its lithium resource estimates for the Greenbushes lithium mine in Australia, increasing the resource amount from 12.86 million tons to 16 million tons [8] - The report notes that the company is making progress on the Zuo La lithium project, enhancing its capacity for lithium compound production [8] Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of 41.89 to 83.52 [12] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 78.729 billion [12] - The average daily trading volume is reported at 31.26 million shares [5]

天齐锂业（002466.SZ）2023年年报点评 矿价调整滞后拖累业绩，SQM 投资收益大幅下滑 2024年03月31日 ➢ 事件：2024年3月27日，公司发布2023年年报。1）2023年实现营收 推荐 维持评级 405.0亿，同比+0.1%，归母净利73.0亿元，同比-69.8%，扣非归母净利71.8 亿元，同比-68.9%。单季度看，2023Q4实现营收71.0亿元，同环比-55.0%、 当前价格： 47.97元 -17.2%，归母净利-8.0亿元，同环比-109.8%、-148.7%，扣非归母净利-8.1亿 元，同环比-109.9%、-151.3%。2）拟派发现金红利22.2亿元。 [Table_Author] ➢ 锂盐价格快速下跌，矿价高位拖累冶炼端利润。1）价：由于产业链去库存 及供需格局的转变，2023年锂价快速下跌，电碳均价25.6万元/吨，同比-47.3%， 电氢均价 27.2 万元/吨，同比-41.9%；2）锂精矿产销及库存：2023 年 Greenbushes锂精矿产量152.2万吨（技术级7.5万吨），同比+12.9%，公司 穿透持有Greenbushes26%股权，2023年权益产 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2][6] Core Views - The report highlights that lithium prices have significantly declined, impacting the company's performance, yet the targets for mining and metallurgy remain strong [2][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 40.503 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 0.13%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 69.75% to 7.297 billion yuan [6][8] - The report emphasizes the resilience of lithium prices and the high growth in revenue and gross profit from lithium concentrate business, which reached 27.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.2% [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 40.503 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.297 billion yuan, down 69.75% year-on-year [6][8] - The gross profit margin for the year was 84.99%, indicating strong profitability despite the decline in net profit [6][8] Business Segments - The lithium concentrate business generated revenue of 27.204 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 90.44%, up from 83.95% in 2022 [6][8] - The lithium chemical business saw a revenue decline to 13.29 billion yuan, down 46.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 73.85% [6][8] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase its lithium chemical production capacity from 88,800 tons per year to a total of 143,800 tons in the long term, with several projects expected to ramp up production from 2024 to 2026 [6][8] - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 4.477 billion yuan in 2024, 5.439 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.512 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability as new projects come online [6][8] Market Position - Tianqi Lithium holds a significant position in the lithium market, with its Greenbushes lithium mine being the largest operating lithium mine globally, ensuring a stable supply of raw materials [6][8] - The report notes that the company has a strong resource endowment and is well-positioned to benefit from the expected stabilization of lithium prices [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in lithium prices and the lag in mineral price adjustments have impacted performance, but the positioning of high-quality resources supports future profitability [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 7.297 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 69.75%, with revenue of 40.503 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% [2][9] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability due to adjustments in mineral pricing mechanisms in 2024 [3][17] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the total revenue was 40,503 million yuan, with a net profit of 7,297 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 7,177 million yuan [2][9] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 84.99%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.02%, down 13.55 percentage points [9][23] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a net profit of -800 million yuan, a significant decline of 148.67% quarter-on-quarter, influenced by asset impairment and adjustments in investment income from SQM [10][19] Sales and Production Insights - The sales volume of spodumene concentrate from the Greenbushes mine reached 1.43 million tons in 2023, an increase of 35%, with a total production of 1.522 million tons [3][15] - The report projects that the production capacity of the Greenbushes mine will reach approximately 1.3 million tons in 2024, with a sales guidance of 420,000 to 500,000 tons [3][17] Investment and Future Projections - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2025 and introduces a forecast for 2026, expecting net profits of 3.57 billion, 4.26 billion, and 4.87 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][23] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 22x, 18x, and 16x, respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][23] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 47.66 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 78.22 billion yuan [6]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was ¥40,503,462,071.46, a slight increase of 0.13% compared to ¥40,448,883,981.77 in 2022[14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was ¥7,297,314,973.99, representing a significant decrease of 69.75% from ¥24,124,588,724.44 in 2022[14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥7,176,527,920.24, down 68.88% from ¥23,059,437,893.49 in the previous year[14]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 11.78% to ¥22,688,073,725.98 from ¥20,297,583,221.14 in 2022[14]. - The basic and diluted earnings per share for 2023 were both ¥4.45, a decrease of 71.33% from ¥15.52 in 2022[14]. - The weighted average return on equity dropped to 14.61%, down 66.04 percentage points from 80.65% in 2022[14]. - The company reported a net profit of ¥4,875,226,485.40 in Q1 2023, but a loss of ¥801,198,782.31 in Q4 2023[19]. - The company achieved total operating revenue of CNY 40.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%[93]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 7.30 billion, with a net profit of CNY 7.18 billion after deducting non-recurring gains and losses[93]. - The lithium mining and refining sector contributed CNY 27.20 billion, accounting for 67.16% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 76.20%[95]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving a total of 10 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 25%[188]. - The company reported a net profit of CNY 2.5 billion, which is a 30% increase compared to the previous year[186]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company reported significant growth in lithium production, with a year-on-year increase of 45% in output[4]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 25% in the next fiscal year, driven by increased sales and market expansion[4]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly, aiming for a total lithium production capacity of 100,000 tons by 2025[33]. - The company's lithium compound production capacity is currently 88,800 tons per year, with plans to expand to 143,800 tons upon completion of new projects[27]. - The company aims to increase its production capacity by 20% in the next fiscal year to meet rising global demand[182]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity by 25% in the next fiscal year to meet rising market demand[199]. Market Expansion and Strategic Partnerships - Future outlook includes expansion into new markets, particularly in Europe and North America, to meet rising demand for lithium[4]. - Tianqi Lithium is exploring potential acquisitions to enhance its supply chain and increase market share in the lithium sector[4]. - The company is actively pursuing new product development and technological advancements in lithium extraction and processing[12]. - The company is exploring opportunities for market expansion through potential mergers and acquisitions in the lithium sector[12]. - The company is expected to strengthen the recycling system for power batteries and improve the integration of the "vehicle-energy-road-cloud" ecosystem to enhance the green development level of the entire industry chain[6]. - The company is actively exploring opportunities in international markets to diversify its revenue streams[182]. - The company plans to expand its market presence in Europe and North America, targeting a 10% market share in these regions by 2025[188]. - The company is exploring potential mergers and acquisitions to enhance its supply chain and market position[186]. Research and Development - The company is investing in R&D for new lithium extraction technologies, aiming to improve efficiency by 20% over the next two years[4]. - The company is actively pursuing research and development in new battery technologies, including lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries, to enhance its product offerings[33]. - The company has established a strong R&D team focused on innovative technologies and products, with multiple research centers in China and Australia, enhancing its competitive edge in the lithium industry[70]. - The company has initiated feasibility studies for a 1,000-ton lithium metal project in Chongqing, further expanding its production capabilities[77]. - The company is committed to continuous technological innovation and optimizing existing battery recycling processes to enhance product value[144]. - The company is focusing on strategic mineral recycling projects to enhance sustainability and extend the lithium industry chain lifecycle[112]. - The company is investing CNY 1 billion in new product development, focusing on high-purity lithium compounds for battery applications[186]. - Research and development efforts are being intensified, with a goal of launching two new lithium products by the end of 2024[186]. Sustainability and Environmental Initiatives - The company is focused on sustainability initiatives, aiming for a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2025[4]. - The financial report indicates a commitment to sustainable practices in lithium production, aligning with global environmental standards[12]. - The company emphasizes sustainability initiatives, aiming for a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2025[188]. - The company is committed to fully automating new projects with high safety and environmental standards[149]. - The company has established an EHS department to address safety and environmental risks, with a focus on high-quality project management and automation to reduce risks[149]. - The company has linked executive compensation performance to 22 ESG indicators, achieving 100% coverage of ESG performance linkage for executives in 2023[91]. Governance and Management - The board has approved a share buyback program to enhance shareholder value, with a budget of 1 billion CNY allocated for this purpose[4]. - The company has established a performance evaluation mechanism for senior management, optimizing performance indicators for 2023 to enhance operational efficiency[171]. - The company has implemented a performance-based remuneration structure for senior management, with basic salaries paid monthly and performance bonuses distributed annually based on assessment results[193]. - The company has a clear ownership structure, with no unauthorized occupation or control of its assets by the controlling shareholders[177]. - The company has established an independent financial department with a sound financial accounting system, ensuring no interference from controlling shareholders in financial activities[177]. - The company has a robust human resources management system that operates independently from the controlling shareholders[176]. - The company has improved its ESG rating from BB to BBB according to MSCI's latest report in August 2023, and has been included in the S&P China A300 ESG index[91]. Market Demand and Trends - User data indicates a 30% increase in demand for lithium products from electric vehicle manufacturers[4]. - The battery industry demand for lithium increased to 87%, up from 31% in 2015, driven by the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle market[24]. - The global demand for lithium is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of electric vehicles and energy storage applications[38]. - User data indicates a growing demand for lithium products, driven by the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors[182]. - User data indicates a 15% increase in lithium product sales volume, driven by rising demand in the electric vehicle sector[186]. Challenges and Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected growth in downstream demand, which could impact the overall lithium industry[80]. - The company faces risks from lithium price volatility, which could significantly impact its business and financial performance, as highlighted by Wood Mackenzie[145]. - Geopolitical factors and rising protectionism in lithium resource-rich countries pose risks to the company's long-term strategic layout and adaptability[148]. - The company faces foreign exchange risks primarily related to USD and AUD, which may impact overseas business costs and revenues[152]. Investor Relations and Communication - The company has scheduled investor communication activities throughout 2023 to engage with stakeholders[153]. - The company actively engages with investors, hosting 9 investor relations activities and receiving thousands of participants, indicating increased attention compared to 2022[172]. - The company has implemented a dual-channel communication strategy to enhance investor relations management, focusing on compliance, systematization, and digitalization[174]. - The company has established a dual-language investor relations section on its website, adding a Spanish version to broaden information accessibility[172].

天齐锂业股份有限公司全体股东： 内部控制审计报告 毕马威华振审字第 2403986 号 第 1 页，共 2 页 内部控制审计报告（续） 毕马威华振审字第 2403986 号 按照《企业内部控制审计指引》及中国注册会计师执业准则的相关要求，我们审 计了天齐锂业股份有限公司（以下简称"贵公司"）2023 年 12 月 31 日的财务报告内部 控制的有效性。 一、 企业对内部控制的责任 按照《企业内部控制基本规范》、《企业内部控制应用指引》、《企业内部控制 评价指引》的规定，建立健全和有效实施内部控制，并评价其有效性是贵公司董事会 的责任。 二、 注册会计师的责任 我们的责任是在实施审计工作的基础上，对财务报告内部控制的有效性发表审计 意见，并对注意到的非财务报告内部控制的重大缺陷进行披露。 三、 内部控制的固有局限性 内部控制具有固有局限性，存在不能防止和发现错报的可能性。此外，由于情况 的变化可能导致内部控制变得不恰当，或对控制政策和程序遵循的程度降低，根据内 部控制审计结果推测未来内部控制的有效性具有一定风险。 方海杰 陈超 四、 财务报告内部控制审计意见 我们认为，贵公司于 2023 年 12 月 31 日 ...

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 "（一）关于甘孜州天齐硅业有限公司（以下简称"天齐硅业"） 近日，天齐锂业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到公司股东成都天齐实业（集 团）有限公司（以下简称"天齐集团"）发来的《成都天齐实业（集团）有限公司关于申 请延长避免同业竞争承诺期限的函》。天齐集团申请延长避免同业竞争承诺期限，将承诺 到期日由 2024 年 6 月 24 日调整为公司股东大会审议通过相关事项之日起 36 个月。 公司于 2024 年 3 月 27 日召开第六届董事会第十二次会议以及第六届监事会第六次会 议，审议通过了《关于天齐集团延长避免同业竞争承诺期限的议案》。关联董事蒋卫平先 生现担任天齐集团的董事长、总经理，关联董事蒋安琪女士现担任天齐集团的董事，均回 避了本议案的表决。本议案经独立董事专门会议审议通过后，提交董事会审议。 根据《上市公司监管指引第 4 号——上市公司及其相关方承诺》的相关规定，《关于 天齐集团延长避免同业竞争承诺期限的议案》尚需提交至股东大会审议，承诺人及其关联 方应回避表决。 一、2019 年的原承诺情况 为避 ...