Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has achieved comprehensive profitability for the first time, driven by the growth in e-commerce returns, automation technologies, and improved management practices [2][6][8] Business Growth - In 2024, the average daily business volume in the express delivery industry reached nearly 500 million packages, with major players like YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu exceeding the industry average growth rate of 21% [3][4] - The market share of Zhongtong remains the highest, but the gap with YTO is narrowing, while only Shentong saw an increase in market share compared to 2023 [3] - Reverse logistics and scattered orders have become significant growth sources for express companies, with Jitu reporting an 80% year-on-year increase in reverse and scattered orders [3][4] - Shentong's large customer business grew by 260% in 2024, driven by customized solutions for over 20 industries [4][5] Profit Growth - All eight major listed express companies achieved profitability in 2024, with SF Express reporting a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, the highest since its A-share listing [6][7] - JD Logistics and Shentong experienced significant profit growth, with JD Logistics' net profit increasing by 507.2% year-on-year to 7.088 billion yuan [6][7] - Jitu achieved a net profit of 1.1 million USD, marking its first overall profitability, attributed to refined management and technology applications [7] Industry Transformation - The express delivery sector is undergoing a transformation from labor-intensive to technology-driven operations, with companies like Shentong and Debang reducing employee numbers while increasing efficiency through automation [8][9][10] - SF Express reduced its workforce from 153,125 to 147,189, while increasing average annual salary by 7.4% to 217,000 yuan [8] - Yunda and Debang also reported reductions in employee numbers, with Yunda's workforce decreasing to below 10,000 for the first time [9][10]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed remarkable performance in 2024, with eight major listed companies achieving a total revenue of approximately 791.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%, and a net profit of 35.58 billion yuan, a significant increase of 93.67% [1][2] - The industry is benefiting from digital transformation and the introduction of intelligent systems, which enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs [1][4] Financial Performance - Shentong Express reported the highest net profit growth rate, achieving a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan, up 15.26%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.24% [2] - JD Logistics followed with an adjusted net profit growth of 186.8% to 7.9 billion yuan, driven by revenue expansion and refined management [2] - SF Holding's net profit reached 10.17 billion yuan, marking a new high since its listing, supported by supply chain and international business growth [2] - Jitu Express turned around with a net profit of 1.1 billion USD (approximately 7.99 billion yuan) in 2024, recovering from a loss of 11.6 billion USD in 2023 [2] Industry Drivers - The "Express into Villages" initiative has significantly improved logistics networks, with 346,000 village-level logistics service stations established [3] - The rise of live e-commerce contributed to the express delivery sector, with retail sales reaching 4.3 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, accounting for 80% of e-commerce growth [3] Technological Advancements - The express delivery industry is undergoing a technological transformation, with over 90% of large-scale processing centers achieving automation [4] - SF Holding invested 4 billion yuan in automation and logistics infrastructure, increasing its automated sorting rate to 92% and reducing transit costs by 23% compared to three years ago [5] - Yunda Express is enhancing its management efficiency and service quality through continuous digital and intelligent transformation [5] International Expansion - SF Holding has deepened its global presence, winning over 100 overseas supply chain projects, with international revenue growing by 24.81% to 32.16 billion yuan [6] - Yunda Express has expanded its international network, covering over 150 countries, with overseas revenue increasing by 43.13% to 1.03 billion yuan [6] - Other companies like Yunda, Jitu, Zhongtong, and Debang are also accelerating their international strategies through various means [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly with the recommendation of companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and Xingtong Co. [3][20] Core Viewpoints - OPEC has agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day, which is expected to enhance the certainty of improvement in the shipping market in Q2 [3][20] - The report highlights the resilience of major ports and anticipates improvements in Southeast Asia's shipping and oil tanker sectors [3][20] - The report suggests that the "off-season" for shipping may not be as weak as expected, with a higher probability of strong performance from May to August [3][20] Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - OPEC's production increase will lead to a cumulative increase of 960,000 barrels per day over April, May, and June, which is 44% of the total expected increase of 2.2 million barrels per day [3][20] - The report notes that April shipping rates have risen against seasonal trends, indicating a potential for stronger performance in the second half of the year [3][20] - VLCC rates have decreased by 9% to $46,903 per day, but the overall market remains relatively strong with expectations for a rebound post-holiday [3][20][21] Air Transportation - The report indicates that oil prices, influenced by tariffs and OPEC's production increase, are relieving cost pressures on airlines [40] - The domestic air travel market is expected to recover, with passenger volumes projected to reach 10.75 million during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 8% [41][40] - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [42] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing high growth, with March volumes reaching 16.66 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [44] - The report emphasizes the potential for market share concentration among leading companies due to favorable policy changes [44] - Recommended companies include SF Holding, JD Logistics, and YTO Express [46] Railway and Highway - The report highlights the resilience of railway freight and highway truck traffic, with railway cargo volume increasing by 3% and highway truck traffic by 2.25% [48] - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines for the highway sector throughout 2025 [48]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has shown significant growth in 2024, with major companies achieving profitability for the first time, driven by e-commerce returns and automation technologies [2][6][4]. Industry Overview - The total express delivery volume and revenue in 2024 reached 1.745 billion packages and 1.4 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year growth of 21% and 13% respectively [2]. - The market structure is becoming more balanced, with the share of express delivery volume and revenue in eastern regions declining while central and western regions are increasing [2]. Company Performance - Major express companies reported daily package volumes increasing from 40-70 million in 2022 to 60-90 million in 2024 [2]. - SF Express achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan with a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, marking a 23.51% increase in net profit [3][6]. - JD Logistics reported a remarkable net profit growth of 507.2% to 7.088 billion yuan [3][6]. - Yunda and YTO Express experienced a decline in net profit due to intense price competition [2]. Growth Drivers - The rise in e-commerce return rates has significantly contributed to the growth of reverse logistics, with companies like Jitu Express reporting an 80% year-on-year increase in reverse and scattered orders [4][5]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing their reverse logistics capabilities and optimizing revenue structures through scattered order business [4][5]. Automation and Workforce Changes - The industry is increasingly adopting automation technologies such as drones and smart sorting systems, leading to improved operational efficiency [2][9]. - Several companies, including SF Express and Yunda, have reduced their workforce while increasing employee salaries, indicating a shift towards technology-driven operations [9][10]. Market Competition - Despite the overall growth, competition remains fierce, particularly in pricing, which has affected profit margins for some companies [7][6]. - The market share of leading companies is shifting, with Zhongtong maintaining the top position but with narrowing gaps to YTO Express [4][6].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the "Rural Express" initiative and e-commerce business have become significant drivers for the growth of express delivery companies in 2024 [2][4]. Financial Performance - YTO Express reported a revenue of 69.033 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.67%, with a net profit of 4.012 billion yuan, up 7.78% [3]. - Yunda Express achieved a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, a 7.92% increase, and a net profit of 1.914 billion yuan, up 17.77% [3]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 47.169 billion yuan, a 15.26% increase, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, a significant rise of 205.24% [3]. - The overall express delivery business volume in China reached 1.758 billion pieces, a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [3]. Market Trends - The "Rural Express" initiative has led to the establishment of 346,000 village-level logistics service stations across the country in 2024 [4]. - The live e-commerce sector contributed significantly to the express delivery industry, with retail sales reaching 4.3 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, accounting for 80% of the e-commerce sector's growth [4]. Operational Efficiency - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with Yunda reporting a 21.91% decrease in core operating costs per ticket in 2024 [8]. - YTO Express has implemented demand-based delivery and improved delivery performance, resulting in a nearly 28% reduction in false signing rates [5]. Pricing Pressure - YTO Express experienced a decline in revenue per ticket to 2.3 yuan, a decrease of 4.86%, while the cost per ticket fell to 2.09 yuan, down 4.04% [7]. - The average price for express delivery in the industry was reported at 8.02 yuan per ticket, indicating a continuous downward trend [7]. Technological Advancements - Companies are increasingly adopting unmanned delivery technologies, with Shentong testing smart-assisted driving vehicles on express routes [9]. - YTO Express is exploring the application of autonomous driving technology to enhance transportation efficiency and reduce costs [8].

韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨申通快递（002468.SZ） [Table_Title] 量本利正循环加速，业绩弹性持续兑现 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024Q4，公司营业收入为 136.8 亿元，同比增长 18.0%；归母净利润为 3.9 亿元，同比增长 223.8%。2025Q1，公司营业收入为 120.0 亿元，同比增长 18.4%；归母净利润为 2.4 亿元， 同比增长 24.0%。四季度公司件量增速领跑，规模效应释放下单票归母净利同比增长 0.035 元 至 0.059 元。2025Q1，行业竞争逐步加剧，公司发力精益化管理叠加件量增长强劲推动降本， 有效对冲价格竞争压力，单票归母净利达到 0.041 元，同比持平。展望后市，申通进入管理变 革的收获期，以体验和利润为先，寻求量利齐升的健康发展，单票利润提升值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 申通快递（00246 ...

公司通过降本降费对冲降价，2024 年单票利润提升，2025Q1 稳定 事件: 2025 年4 月24 日，申通快递发布2024 年年报和2025 年一季报： 2024 年，公司实现营业收入471.69 亿元，同比增长15.26%；归母净利润为10.40 亿元，同比增长 205.24%。扣非归母净利润为10.17 亿元，同比增长199.55%。 2025Q1，公司实现营业收入119.99 亿元，同比增长18.43%；归母净利润为2.36 亿元，同比增长 24.04%。扣非归母净利润为2.31 亿元，同比增长23.78%。 业务方面，2024 年，申通快递完成快递业务量227.3 亿票，同比增长29.8%，市占率13.0%，同比提升 0.83pct，单票快递收入2.05 元，同比降低8.1%。公司2025Q1 业务量完成快递业务量58.1 亿票，同比增 长26.6%，市占率12.9%，同比提升0.5pct，单票快递收入2.04 元，同比降低6.2%。 投资要点: 公司件量保持高速增长，市占率同比持续提升 公司2024 年快递件量增长29.8%，较同期行业快递件量增速21.5%高8.3pct，市占率同比提升0.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - In March, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year volume growth of 20.3%, with a total of 16.656 billion packages delivered, slightly down from a cumulative growth of 22.4% in January and February [2][10]. - SF Express saw a significant volume growth of 25.4%, outperforming other companies in the Tongda system, and its market share increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][17]. - The price competition remains intense within the industry, with year-on-year declines in average revenue per package for Tongda companies, including a 7.6% drop for YTO Express and an 11.7% drop for SF Express [3][27][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The express delivery sector's volume growth remains robust, with March figures showing a 20.3% increase year-on-year, despite a slight slowdown from earlier months [2][12]. - The growth in same-city deliveries was 4.3%, while intercity deliveries grew by 21.9% [12][14]. 2. Business Volume - SF Express's business volume growth reached 25.4%, significantly higher than its competitors, with a market share increase of 0.3 percentage points [2][17]. - YTO Express, Shentong, and Yunda's growth rates were close to the industry average, with YTO showing a slight edge [2][17]. 3. Revenue per Package - The average revenue per package for Tongda companies saw declines, with Shentong, Yunda, and YTO experiencing year-on-year decreases of 4.3%, 5.8%, and 7.6% respectively [3][27]. - SF Express's average revenue per package fell by 11.7% year-on-year, attributed to an increased proportion of e-commerce packages [3][29]. 4. Structural Changes - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) was 86.9 in March, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.8 but a slight decrease of 0.2 from the previous month [33][35]. - The market share of the four publicly listed companies in the A-share market was 49.8%, a slight increase from 49.6% year-on-year, driven by YTO's market share ambitions and SF's strong growth [33][36]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders with superior service quality, particularly Zhongtong and YTO, as the industry shifts towards prioritizing service over cost advantages [4][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Views - The company continues to enhance its competitiveness, achieving simultaneous growth in volume and profit [1]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 15.26% year-on-year increase in 2024 and an 18.43% increase in Q1 2025 [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased daily transactions with Alibaba Group, projecting a significant rise in related transactions for 2025 [11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 471.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion, up 205.24% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 119.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 2.36 billion, up 24.04% [6]. - The company completed 227.3 billion express deliveries in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, and maintained a market share of 13.0% [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively managed costs through various strategies, resulting in improved single-package profitability in 2024 and stable performance in Q1 2025 [8][10]. - The single-package express revenue decreased to 2.05 yuan in 2024, while the single-package cost was reduced to 1.94 yuan, leading to a gross profit of 0.11 yuan [9][10]. - In Q1 2025, the single-package express revenue was 2.04 yuan, with costs at 1.95 yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 0.12 yuan [10]. Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 537.86 billion, 605.17 billion, and 666.53 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.79 billion, 17.35 billion, and 19.94 billion [12][13]. - The projected growth rates for revenue are 14%, 13%, and 10% for the years 2025 to 2027, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 33%, 26%, and 15% [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.2% [4][10]. - The company has successfully completed a three-year capacity enhancement plan, significantly increasing its processing capabilities and maintaining a leading growth rate in package volume [5][7]. - Despite a decline in revenue per package due to market competition, the company achieved substantial revenue growth driven by high package volume [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, with a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 24.0% [4][10]. - The company’s package volume reached 22.73 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, with a market share of 12.98% [5][10]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.4 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan, and 1.9 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 34.4%, 20.5%, and 13.1% [7][10]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its cost per package by 9.7% to 1.94 yuan in 2024, with significant reductions in delivery, transfer, and transportation costs [6][10]. - The report highlights effective cost control measures, with a decrease in various expense ratios, indicating a positive trend in expense management [6][10].