2025年7月25日晚，申通快递一纸公告震动资本市场——拟以现金3.62亿元收购浙江菜鸟供应链、阿里 创投及阿里网络持有的丹鸟物流100%股权。 次日开盘，申通股价应声涨停。这家曾长期徘徊于行业第四位的快递企业，凭借此役实现了十年未有的 市场地位跃升：业务量市占率从12.98%升至13.5%，超越韵达重返行业前三。 这种设计直接针对丹鸟物流的现实状况。财务数据显示，丹鸟2024年尚盈利2011万元，但2025年前四月 亏损高达2.34亿元。 亏损源于业务爬坡期的阵痛。尽管丹鸟已建成覆盖300个城市、拥有59个分拨中心和2600余个网点的全 国性网络，日均业务量超400万单，但规模效应尚未显现。"起网时间短，前期投入成本未能摊薄。"申 通在公告中如此解释。 对阿里而言，出售丹鸟是战略聚焦的必然选择。接近菜鸟的人士透露，丹鸟在菜鸟业务中占比不大，未 来菜鸟将更专注国际物流和科技领域，包括全球供应链、跨境物流和物流园区等核心板块。自阿里巴巴 撤回菜鸟IPO申请后，菜鸟的战略定位日益清晰——做重全球物流网络，而非在国内红海市场与快递企 业贴身肉搏。 "阿里正陆续剥离非核心资产，自营物流作为重资产业务并非其核心优势。" ...

快递行业"反内卷"正在重塑行业生态。 多家A股上市快递公司的数据显示，今年上半年，快递单票月度平均价格持续下滑。韵达股份（002120.SZ）、申通快递（002468.SZ）等加盟制快递企业的 票均价格已跌破2元大关。 7月30日早盘，A股快递板块应声上涨，申通快递盘中一度涨停，截至当日收盘上涨8.47%。圆通速递、韵达股份盘中一度涨超7%，但截至收盘有所回落。 增量不增收现象显著 我国自2014年启动实施"快递下乡"工程以来，农村寄递物流体系历经了从无到有，从初步建立到日渐完善的过程。 2024年快递进村情况普查数据显示，截至目前，全国累计建设33.78万个"一点多能、一站多用"的村级寄递物流综合服务站，农村寄递"最后一公里"服务实 现有效拓展。 不过，农村地区快递服务网络亟待完善、服务能力待提升、运行质效有不足等问题，也成为当前制约农村寄递物流行业发展的短板。因此，要坚持综合施 策，加强设施、运力、信息、资本、技术等资源融合，构建便捷高效的农村快递服务新模式。 随着快递服务网络加速向村级下沉，基层配送矛盾正逐渐显现。21世纪经济报道记者调查发现，在部分农村地区，快递末端违规收费问题依然突出。记者查 阅黑猫 ...

证券之星消息，7月30日物流板块较上一交易日上涨0.81%，申通快递领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3615.72，上涨0.17%。深证成指报收于11203.03，下跌0.77%。物流板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002010 | 传化智联 | 6.17 | -2.06% | 53.31万 | 3.32亿 | | 603813 | *ST原尚 | 15.96 | -2.03% | 7124.0 | 1144.80万 | | 000626 | 远大控股 | 7.06 | -1.40% | 9.40万 | 6652.86万 | | 002930 | 宏川智慧 | 11.34 | -0.96% | 7.14万 | 8141.68万 | | 300873 | 海晨股份 | 21.16 | -0.89% | 6.08万 | 1.29 乙 | | 600794 | 保税科技 | 4.52 | -0.88% | 23.67万 | 1.08亿 | | 600180 | 瑞戊通 ...

Group 1: Shentong Express Acquisition - Shentong Express announced plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhejiang Dan Niao Logistics for a transaction price of 362 million yuan [1] - Dan Niao Logistics specializes in domestic quality express and reverse logistics services, offering high-certainty delivery options such as same-day and next-morning delivery [1] - The acquisition is expected to enhance synergies between the two companies, promoting Shentong's growth and the upgrade of its quality express network [1] Group 2: JD.com's New Initiatives - JD.com launched a "Dish Partner" recruitment program with a budget of 1 billion yuan to find partners for 1,000 signature dishes [1] - Partners are required to provide dish recipes and collaborate on development, while JD.com's Seven Fresh Kitchen will handle cooking and quality control [1] - Each dish will guarantee a minimum revenue share of 1 million yuan, with no cap on sales revenue sharing, and both brand restaurants and individual chefs can apply [1] - JD.com plans to invest 10 billion yuan to build a new supply chain and aims to establish 10,000 Seven Fresh Kitchens nationwide within three years [1]

Group 1 - The express logistics sector experienced significant gains on July 30, with Shentong Express rising by 7%, YTO Express by 5%, and other companies like Yunda and Huapengfei also seeing increases [1] - Shentong Express, a leading private express company in China, reported a market capitalization of 23.4 billion and a trading volume increase of 5.21% [1] - YTO Express, a comprehensive logistics operator, has a market capitalization of 53.94 billion and focuses on expanding its international express and supply chain services [1] Group 2 - The State Post Bureau emphasized the need for improved industry regulation and the establishment of market rules to combat "involution" competition in the express delivery sector [2] - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting highlighted the importance of promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition among enterprises [2] - The Yiwu Postal Administration announced an increase in the minimum express delivery price by 0.1 RMB to 1.2 RMB, effective July 18 [2] Group 3 - Current price adjustments in the Yiwu region have led to a 0.05 RMB increase per ticket, with expectations for similar measures in the southern grain-producing areas [4] - The express delivery industry is anticipated to see improved pricing and profitability in the fourth quarter, driven by regulatory guidance and a shift towards high-quality development [4] - If regulatory policies continue to be implemented, the industry may transition from price wars to value wars, leading to long-term improvements in express companies' performance [4]

A股早盘快递概念走高，申通快递走出4天2板，圆通速递、韵达股份、东航物流、东杰智能等跟涨。消 息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村地 区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争， 强化农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治。会议指出，党的十八大以来，我国快递行业持续快速 发展。各企业负责人要进一步增强大局意识，认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院工作部署，紧跟时代步伐， 引领业态发展，积极推动解决"内卷式"竞争和农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题，维护好行业良好 发展业态。快递企业总部要履行好主体责任，创新经营模式，努力提升农村地区快递服务的适应性和可 持续性。 北京国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会强调 本文编选自"国家邮政局"微信公众号，智通财经编辑：刘家殷。 维护行业良好发展业态 促进快递业高质量发展 会议强调，要积极推进行业党建"两个覆盖"工作，进一步完善快递业党建工作体制机制，强化党建对行 业治理和企业管理的政治引领和规范促进作用。 市场监管司通报了上半年行业市场监管有关情况。中通、圆通、韵达、申通、极兔等快递企业相关负责 人围绕会议主题进行交流并提出意见和建议。 原文如下： 国家邮政局市场监管司有关负责人，中通、圆通、韵达、申通、极兔等快递企业相关负责人参加会议。 7月29日，国家邮政局召开快 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience a "de-involution" phase, with significant policy catalysts anticipated in the upcoming months. The transition from the off-peak to peak season is expected to enhance the pricing power of express companies [2][11]. - The pricing increase duration is projected to be between 2 to 4 months, with a price increase of 0.06 to 0.30 yuan per ticket expected during the peak season. The profit per ticket is anticipated to improve by 0.01 to 0.10 yuan in Q4 [2][11]. - The average profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery is expected to reach double digits, with second-tier express companies showing even more significant profit elasticity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the recent meeting of the State Post Bureau, which emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the express delivery sector. It addresses three main questions: the timing and sustainability of the current "de-involution," the profit elasticity for core enterprises, and the tools available for this process [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The report analyzes historical pricing trends, indicating that the current "de-involution" phase may be catalyzed by policy changes, with pricing increases expected to last longer than in 2024 but shorter than in 2021. The report references past data to illustrate potential outcomes [11][20]. Profit Elasticity - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit elasticity for major express companies, projecting that if the industry begins to raise prices in August and continues until December, the net profit for companies like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong could reach 95.8 billion, 40.6 billion, and 17.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding profit elasticities of 6.5%, 12.7%, and 27.9% [20][21]. Tools for "De-involution" - The report identifies two main strategies for achieving "de-involution": regulatory measures to curb price wars and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among leading companies to optimize competition. The acquisition of Danbird Logistics by Shentong Express is highlighted as a significant step towards improving market dynamics [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities presented by the "de-involution" phase, recommending companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [21].

Group 1 - The domestic express delivery industry is accelerating consolidation, with Shentong Express announcing the acquisition of 100% equity in Zhejiang Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan [1] - After the transaction, Daniao Logistics will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shentong Express and will be included in the company's consolidated financial statements [1] - Daniao Logistics, established by Cainiao in 2019, provides services such as collection, transit delivery, and reverse returns across approximately 300 cities in China, with an average daily business volume exceeding 4 million orders for 2024 and the first four months of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Despite its extensive network of 59 distribution centers and over 2,600 outlets, Daniao Logistics has struggled with profitability, reporting a net loss of 230 million yuan from January to April this year due to seasonal business volume declines and industry price reductions [1][2] - Shentong Express aims to enhance service quality and optimize product structure through this acquisition, targeting high-end delivery markets and emerging scenarios such as regional delivery and instant retail [2] - The State Post Bureau has been encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the express delivery sector, leading to increased consolidation activities within the industry, including significant acquisitions by competitors like JD Logistics and SF Express [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [4][6][7]. Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy in the express delivery sector is expected to ease competition, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Dan Niao Logistics [3][54]. - The shipping industry is anticipated to see a bottoming out of oil transportation rates during the summer, with potential upward pressure on rates due to supply constraints and demand changes [1][22][23]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a decline in flight volumes, but the domestic passenger market is expected to continue optimizing supply and demand dynamics through 2025 [2][37][46]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - In July, crude oil entered the off-season, leading to a softening of oil freight rates, with expectations for a bottoming out during the summer [1]. - The current supply situation is relatively tight, and marginal changes in demand could significantly impact freight rates [1][22]. - Recommendations include China Merchants Energy and China Merchants Shipping, with a focus on China Merchants South Oil [1]. Aviation Sector - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively compared to the previous week, but remain above 2019 levels [2][37]. - The average ticket price for domestic routes has dropped by 8.0% year-on-year, while passenger load factors have improved slightly [2][37]. - Investment recommendations include closely monitoring ticket price performance during the peak summer season, with a focus on China National Aviation, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][46]. Express Delivery Sector - The "anti-involution" policy has been implemented to combat excessive competition, with price increases already observed in regions like Yiwu [3][53]. - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to reduce costs significantly for leading companies like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [3][61]. - Investment suggestions include SF Express, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, with a focus on the impact of the "anti-involution" policy [3][63]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - China Merchants Energy, China Merchants Shipping, SF Express, Zhongtong Express, and YTO Express are all rated as "Outperform" [7]. - SF Express is expected to maintain a growth rate of 15-20% over the next two years, with a PE ratio of approximately 20 times in 2025 [3][63]. - China Merchants Shipping reported a 20.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, indicating strong performance [27].