Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum demonstrates a rare growth attribute within the industry, highlighting its investment value [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 15.328 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.084 billion yuan, up 0.51% year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates that the company's net profit for 2025 to 2027 will be 4.709 billion, 5.602 billion, and 6.429 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.7%, 19.0%, and 14.8% [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company produced 585,400 tons of electrolytic aluminum, remaining stable year-on-year, while alumina production increased by 9.76% to 1.1999 million tons [5] - The average selling price for electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan per ton, up 2.8% year-on-year, and for alumina, it was about 3,700 yuan per ton, up 6% year-on-year [5] - The comprehensive electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum production decreased by approximately 17% year-on-year due to lower coal procurement prices and new power supply agreements [5] Growth Potential - The company has initiated a green low-carbon efficiency improvement project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, which is expected to enhance annual production capacity significantly [6] - The report emphasizes the company's unique growth potential within the industry, supported by its integrated layout and regional advantages [4][6] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.01, 1.20, and 1.38 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.3, 6.1, and 5.3 times [4][8] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 28.975 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.566 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has seen a significant increase in performance, with an overall rise of 8.37% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.41 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 industries [2][11]. - The small metals and new materials sectors have shown particularly strong performance, with increases of 21.87% and 13.84% respectively in the same period [2][16]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies on the rare earth sector, leading to a rapid price recovery for rare earth products [4][72]. Industry Analysis Market Performance - As of August 28, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 16.08% this month and 44.99% year-to-date, ranking 5th and 2nd respectively among 31 industries [11][12]. - The small metals sector has surged by 77.45% year-to-date, while the new materials sector has risen by 55.77% [16]. Price Trends - As of August 28, 2025, key prices include: - LME copper at $9,839.50 per ton - LME aluminum at $2,607 per ton - LME lead at $1,988 per ton - LME zinc at $2,787 per ton - LME nickel at $15,300 per ton - LME tin at $34,825 per ton [22]. - The rare earth price index reached 226.27, up 21.16 from early August, with specific prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 604 yuan per kilogram [41][72]. Company Performance - Notable companies in the sector include: - China Rare Earth (000831) and Kingstone Permanent Magnet (300748), which are recommended for attention due to their strong market positions [73]. - In the last two weeks, the top-performing stocks include Zhangyuan Tungsten (57.70%), Kingstone Permanent Magnet (54.48%), and Northern Rare Earth (46.39%) [18][20]. - Year-to-date, the top gainers are Copper Crown Copper Foil (217.60%), Zhongzhou Special Materials (211.00%), and Northern Rare Earth (165.00%) [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianshan Aluminum with a target price of 11.3 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company's integrated layout continues to improve, leading to a significant decrease in financial expenses. The company achieved an operating income of 15.328 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.51% [1][7]. - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan/ton, up about 2.8% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 3,700 yuan/ton, up about 6% year-on-year. The increase in metal prices contributed to the revenue growth, but rising procurement costs for bauxite led to a 2% increase in electrolytic aluminum production costs and an 18% increase in alumina production costs [1][7]. - The company has seen a steady decline in interest-bearing liabilities, resulting in a 33% decrease in financial expenses. The asset-liability ratio has decreased to 49.53% [1][7]. - The production and sales of electrolytic aluminum and alumina have remained stable, with a new project to increase electrolytic aluminum production by 240,000 tons progressing smoothly [1][7]. - The company is advancing its upstream and downstream projects, enhancing its integrated advantages. The bauxite mining operations in Guinea have commenced, and the company is also progressing with its mining rights in Guangxi and exploration in Indonesia [1][7]. - The report forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 4.79 billion yuan, 5.93 billion yuan, and 6.702 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.4%, 23.8%, and 13.1% [1][7]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28.089 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.1%. For 2025, the revenue is expected to reach 29.974 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 6.7% [1][8]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 4.455 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 102.0%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 4.786 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.4% [1][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.96 yuan, increasing to 1.03 yuan in 2025 [1][8].

Core Viewpoint - The social security fund has made significant adjustments to its stock holdings, with a focus on long-term investment strategies, reflecting its presence in the top ten shareholders of 425 companies as of August 28 [1] Group 1: Stock Adjustments - In the second quarter, the social security fund entered 108 new stocks, increased holdings in 108 stocks, reduced holdings in 111 stocks, and maintained its position in 98 stocks [1] - Among the stocks with increased holdings, eight stocks saw an increase of over 10 million shares, with Tongwei Co., Ltd. having the largest increase of 32.85 million shares, raising its holding percentage from 0.68% to 1.41% [1][2] Group 2: Performance of Increased Holdings - The companies with significant increases in holdings include Wanda Film, Changshu Bank, and Tianshan Aluminum, all of which reported year-on-year growth in their performance for the first half of the year [1] - Wanda Film reported the highest net profit growth, with total operating revenue of 6.689 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.57%, and a net profit of 536 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 372.55% [1][2] Group 3: Detailed Stock Data - The following stocks were notably increased by the social security fund: - Tongwei Co., Ltd.: 32.85 million shares, holding percentage 1.41%, net profit -495.5 million yuan, year-on-year change -58.35% [2] - Changshu Bank: 23.80 million shares, holding percentage 8.38%, net profit 1.969 billion yuan, year-on-year change 13.51% [2] - Wanda Film: 14.01 million shares, holding percentage 12.17%, net profit 536 million yuan, year-on-year change 372.55% [2] - Tianshan Aluminum: 12.88 million shares, holding percentage 2.51%, net profit 2.084 billion yuan, year-on-year change 0.51% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved stable performance with a revenue of 15.328 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 11.19% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.084 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year [4] - The company has a strong integrated supply chain advantage, which helps maintain stable production and performance amid high volatility in aluminum prices and costs. In the first half of 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 585,400 tons, remaining stable year-on-year, while sales increased by approximately 2% [4] - The company is expanding its upstream resource capabilities and electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity, with a green low-carbon transformation project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to be completed in about 10 months, increasing its capacity from 1.2 million tons to 1.4 million tons [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.20% [4] - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 3,700 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 6% year-on-year [4] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 4.569 billion yuan, 5.857 billion yuan, and 6.495 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.26, and 1.40 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has reported its half-year results, highlighting significant developments in its operations, including share buybacks and resource acquisition, which are expected to enhance its market competitiveness and operational efficiency [1][11][17]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company did not distribute cash dividends or issue bonus shares during the reporting period [3]. - The company’s controlling shareholder and actual controller did not change during the reporting period [5]. Group 2: Share Buyback - The company approved a share buyback plan on April 9, 2025, using both special loans and its own funds to repurchase part of its A-share stock [6]. - As of July 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 17.56 million shares, accounting for 0.38% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 139.96 million yuan [6]. Group 3: Resource Acquisition - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Jingxi Tiangui, obtained a mining license on April 7, 2025, which is expected to enhance the company’s bauxite resource security and strengthen its competitive position [7]. Group 4: Environmental Initiatives - The company’s subsidiary, Tian Aluminum, is undertaking a green low-carbon energy efficiency upgrade for its 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, utilizing advanced energy-saving technologies [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the aluminum industry, specifically focusing on the outlook for electrolytic aluminum and alumina prices in 2025 [1][5][20]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Forecasts**: The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2025 is expected to be 20,400 CNY/ton, an increase from 19,900 CNY/ton in 2024. Conversely, the average price of alumina in Henan is projected to be 3,300 CNY/ton, down from 4,070 CNY/ton in 2024 [1][5]. - **Profitability**: The rise in electrolytic aluminum prices combined with the decline in alumina prices is anticipated to enhance the profitability of electrolytic aluminum companies [1]. - **Bauxite Supply**: China has only 2.3% of global bauxite reserves but produces 16% of the world's bauxite and 58% of alumina. To achieve supply-demand balance in 2025, an additional import of approximately 15.83 million tons of bauxite is required [1][9]. - **Political Risks**: There are political risks associated with bauxite supply from countries like Guinea, which could impact supply stability [10]. - **Alumina Price Fluctuations**: The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate between 2,800 and 3,300 CNY/ton in the second half of the year, with potential spikes if supply disruptions occur [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Demand Distribution**: The demand for aluminum is becoming more diversified, with traditional real estate demand declining. Emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and data centers are expected to support aluminum prices [4][16]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum are recommended for investment due to their strong performance and strategic advantages. China Hongqiao reported a 35% year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, while Tianshan Aluminum benefits from complete self-sufficiency in raw materials [4][19][21]. - **Export Trends**: China's aluminum product exports showed positive growth in the first half of the year, although some segments faced declines due to increased tariffs and changes in export tax policies [17]. - **Future Consumption Drivers**: The consumption of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be driven by new sectors like electric vehicles and data centers, despite a projected slowdown in overall domestic consumption growth [18]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry is poised for a favorable outlook in 2025, with specific companies standing out as strong investment opportunities due to their operational efficiencies and market positioning. The interplay between supply, demand, and pricing dynamics will be crucial in shaping the industry's performance in the coming years [20][23].

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum's performance in the first half of 2025 shows stable growth in revenue and profit, driven by effective cost control and expansion strategies [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.084 billion yuan, up 0.51% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.961 billion yuan, showing a minimal increase of 0.01% [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 0.45 yuan [1] - Operating cash flow significantly improved to 3.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.09% [1] Operational Efficiency - The sales volume of primary products, electrolytic aluminum and alumina, increased by 2% and 7% respectively [1] - The comprehensive electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum production decreased by approximately 17% due to favorable coal market conditions and new electricity purchase agreements [2] Growth Initiatives - Tianshan Aluminum is advancing a green low-carbon transformation project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, expected to enhance total production by around 20% [2] - The project will utilize advanced technologies, including fully graphitized cathodes, aligning with national carbon reduction policies [2] Debt Management - The company is focused on reducing debt, with financial expenses in 2024 amounting to 707 million yuan, a decrease of 10.24% year-on-year, and a further reduction of 32.63% in H1 2025 [3] - The debt-to-asset ratio decreased by nearly 5 percentage points to 52.74% [3] Shareholder Value - Tianshan Aluminum has repurchased a total of 55.8623 million shares, utilizing 390 million yuan, to enhance shareholder value and confidence in future growth [3] - The company plans to integrate share buybacks and dividends with strategic development to create a positive cycle of internal growth and shareholder returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum's performance in the first half of 2025 shows revenue growth driven by increased sales volume and higher aluminum prices, indicating resilience in its operations [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 15.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.084 billion yuan, up 0.51% [1]. - The company's basic earnings per share were 0.45 yuan, with a profit growth of approximately 6% after excluding non-operating factors [1]. - Operating cash flow significantly improved to 3.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.09% [1]. Production and Cost Management - Tianshan Aluminum's production remained stable, with electrolytic aluminum output at 585,400 tons, essentially flat year-on-year, while alumina production increased by 9.76% to 1,199,900 tons [1]. - The comprehensive electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum production decreased by about 17% due to lower coal prices and new power purchase agreements [2]. - The company is advancing its global strategy for bauxite resources, with significant progress in its mining projects in Guangxi, Guinea, and Indonesia [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Tianshan Aluminum is actively pursuing a green low-carbon transformation project for its electrolytic aluminum capacity, aiming for a 20% increase in total output through technological upgrades [3]. - The company is focused on reducing its debt levels, with financial expenses decreasing by 32.63% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3]. Capital Management - Tianshan Aluminum has been implementing a share repurchase plan, having repurchased 17.559 million shares, representing 0.38% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 390 million yuan [4]. - The repurchased shares are intended for employee stock ownership plans or potential cancellation to optimize the capital structure [4]. - The company aims to integrate growth strategies with shareholder returns, creating a positive cycle of internal growth and shareholder value [4].

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