Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The overall industrial metal prices have experienced a decline, particularly in the overseas market, primarily due to liquidity issues in the US banking system. The government shutdown has led to a tightening of cash balances, impacting global risk assets. Concerns over power shortages in North America due to data center developments have raised fears of production halts in high-energy-consuming sectors like aluminum and zinc, resulting in relatively strong prices for these commodities. The lithium industry has seen a turnaround, with improving supply-demand fundamentals. The uncertainty in overseas resource development and weak profitability due to low lithium prices have peaked capital expenditures in the industry by 2024-2025, with a confirmed trend of declining supply growth from 2026 to 2028. By 2026, equity values are expected to outperform commodity prices, potentially leading the market out of a downturn [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The ongoing US government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, which is expected to drive gold prices higher in the short term. The report emphasizes that gold prices are currently stabilizing rather than indicating a trend reversal. Historically, gold prices tend to peak early in a rate-cutting cycle, and the current macroeconomic environment suggests that gold may not have reached its peak yet. The report maintains a positive outlook for gold, suggesting that the market is entering a phase of systematic re-evaluation [4]. Industrial Metals - The report highlights a long-term positive outlook for copper and aluminum. Recent price adjustments in these metals are attributed to liquidity issues in the US. The report notes that copper inventories have increased by 4.68% week-on-week and 25.01% year-on-year, while aluminum inventories have decreased by 0.49% week-on-week and 13.31% year-on-year. The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term economic outlook and supply-demand structure will favor a strong cycle for copper and aluminum [4][5]. Energy and Minor Metals - The lithium sector is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The report indicates that the darkest period for the lithium industry has passed, with a clear trend of improving supply-demand fundamentals. The demand for lithium is projected to grow significantly due to stable domestic power needs and the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization. The report also highlights the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with expectations of a new upward trend in prices due to supply constraints and increased demand [5][24]. Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the high concentration of supply in cobalt and nickel, with specific attention to the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt quotas and Indonesia's tightening supply policies for nickel. These factors are expected to support long-term price increases for both cobalt and nickel, benefiting resource-oriented companies [5][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing overseas electricity shortages with Chinese solutions, particularly in the context of rising industrial electricity costs due to increasing energy prices in major countries [9][14]. - It highlights the potential for significant growth in the electrolytic aluminum sector driven by export demand, as overseas power supply issues lead to production cuts [14]. - The report also points out investment opportunities in the special steel sector, particularly related to advancements in nuclear fusion technology [15]. - The lithium carbonate sector is expected to benefit from a surge in overseas energy storage demand, with prices across the supply chain showing signs of recovery [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report suggests that electrolytic aluminum, special steel, and lithium carbonate are primarily driven by domestic demand, but it presents a contrasting view that focuses on overseas electricity shortages as a growth opportunity [9][13]. - The electrolytic aluminum sector is poised for a revaluation due to strong production cut expectations stemming from overseas electricity shortages [14]. - The special steel sector is highlighted for its potential growth linked to nuclear fusion advancements, with significant demand expected for materials that can withstand extreme conditions [15]. - The lithium carbonate sector is experiencing a price rebound, with recent contracts indicating a positive outlook for the entire supply chain [16]. 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing short-term profitability pressures, with slight declines in iron and steel production noted [17][19]. - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks are decreasing, indicating a tightening supply [24]. - The report notes a general decline in steel prices, with various product categories experiencing price drops [34]. - Cost pressures are evident, with mixed trends in raw material prices impacting profitability across different steel production processes [27][30]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report indicates a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, reflecting a robust supply response to market demand [39]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures showing substantial growth [43]. - Price trends for lithium and nickel are mixed, with lithium prices experiencing a notable decline while cobalt prices have seen increases [48][50].

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-078 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东 2024 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公 司债券（第二期）赎回业务第一次提示性公告 控股股东石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内 容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一 致。 重要提示： 1．债券代码：117226.SZ 2．债券简称：24 锦隆 EB02 3．赎回登记日: 2025 年 11 月 17 日 7．摘牌日：2025 年 11 月 18 日 天山铝业集团股份有限公司接到控股股东石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公 司（以下简称"锦隆能源/公司"）的通知，获悉锦隆能源全部赎回"2024 年面 向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券（第二期）"（债券简称"24 锦隆 EB02"， 债券代码"117226.SZ"，以下简称"本期债券"）。现就赎回本期债券信息披 露如下： 一、本期债券赎回的程序和时间安排 1．本期债券赎回的程序 根据《石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公司 2024 年面向专业投资者非公开发 ...

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-077 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东 2024 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公 司债券（第一期）赎回业务第一次提示性公告 控股股东石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内 容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一 致。 重要提示： 3．赎回登记日：2025 年 11 月 17 日 7．摘牌日：2025 年 11 月 18 日 天山铝业集团股份有限公司接到控股股东石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公 司（以下简称"锦隆能源/公司"）的通知，获悉锦隆能源拟全部赎回"2024 年 面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券（第一期）"（债券简称"24 锦隆 EB01"，债券代码"117225.SZ"，以下简称"本期债券"）。现就赎回本期债 券情况披露如下： 一、本期债券赎回的程序和时间安排 1．本期债券赎回的程序 根据《石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公司 2024 年面向专业投资者非公开发 行可交换公司债券（第一期）募集说明书》有关条款约定，公司可于换股期间满 ...

Group 1: Base Metals Sector Performance - The A-share market's basic metals sector showed strong performance, with companies like China Aluminum, Minfa Aluminum, and Haomei New Materials hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other notable performers included Yun Aluminum and Jiaozuo Wanfang, which rose over 8%, while Shenhuo Co. increased by over 7% [1] - The overall trend indicates a robust interest in the aluminum sector, driven by various market dynamics [1] Group 2: Copper Market Insights - CITIC Securities reported a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in production from major global copper mining companies in Q3, with expectations for continued contraction in Q4 [1] - A shortage of raw materials and potential "anti-involution" factors are likely to contribute to a reduction in domestic refined copper supply, alongside stable demand [1] - The anticipated low supply and steady demand could widen the global refined copper supply gap by 50% next year, with LME copper prices expected to exceed $10,000 per ton [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Outlook - CITIC Jiantou forecasts a 2.5% growth in domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption by 2025, supported by strong performance in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors [1] - The consumption state of electrolytic aluminum is better than expected, leading to an expanded supply-demand gap [1] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to continue rising, enhancing the dividend capacity of aluminum companies [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Analysis - Dongwu Securities noted that despite hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a pullback in precious metal prices due to improved geopolitical trade relations, the macro framework remains favorable for bullish positions [2] - There is a significant probability of interest rate cuts in December, suggesting a continued positive outlook for precious metals in the medium term [2]

比例变动超过 1%的公告 控股股东石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内 容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一 致。 证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 公告编号：2025-076 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东非公开发行可交换公司债券换股进展暨持股 1 / 5 计换股 47,172,054 股，占公司总股本比例为 1.01%。权益变动后，锦隆能源持有 公司股份被动减少 47,172,054 股，锦隆能源及其一致行动人持有公司股份比例被 动减少至 40.99%。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 10 月 22 日在巨潮资讯网上披露 的《关于控股股东非公开发行可交换公司债券换股进展暨持股比例变动超过 1% 的公告》（公告编号：2025-063）。 2025 年 10 月 21 日至 2025 年 10 月 30 日，"24 锦隆 EB01"换股 40,489,206 股、"24 锦隆 EB02"换股 11,212,745 股，合计换股 51,701,951 股，占公司总股 本比例为 1.11%。权 ...

Core Points - Tianshan Aluminum announced that from October 31 to November 4, 2025, its controlling shareholder, Jinlong Energy, will issue "24 Jinlong EB01" and "24 Jinlong EB02" exchangeable bonds, resulting in the exchange of a total of 41.71663 million shares, which accounts for 0.90% of the company's total share capital [1] - Following this equity change, Jinlong Energy's shareholding in the company will be passively reduced by 41.71663 million shares, bringing its and its concerted parties' shareholding ratio down to 38.98% [1] - This equity change is a result of the bondholders exchanging their bonds for shares, which does not trigger a mandatory tender offer and will not lead to a change in the company's controlling shareholder [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum Industry has strategically positioned itself in the bauxite mining sector across China, Guinea, and Indonesia, with significant progress in its mining projects [1] Group 1: Project Developments - The company has obtained mining rights for its bauxite project in Guangxi, which is set to enter the substantial mining phase [1] - The bauxite project in Guinea has commenced production, with mined ore continuously being shipped back to China [1] - In Indonesia, the bauxite project is in the preliminary exploration stage, with mining activities gradually unfolding, and the scale of extraction will be planned according to project progress [1] Group 2: Supply Assurance - The ongoing developments in these regions are aimed at ensuring a sufficient supply of raw materials for the company's alumina projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum Industry has made significant progress in its bauxite mining projects in Guangxi, Guinea, and Indonesia, indicating a strategic expansion in raw material supply for alumina production [1] Group 1: Project Developments - The bauxite mining project in Guangxi has obtained mining rights and is about to enter the substantial mining phase [1] - The bauxite mining project in Guinea has entered the production phase, with ore continuously being shipped back to China [1] - The bauxite mining project in Indonesia is in the preliminary exploration stage, with plans for gradual expansion of mining activities based on project progress [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The mining activities in these regions are aimed at ensuring a sufficient supply of raw materials for the company's alumina projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 中证500成长ETF (159606) experienced a decline of 1.30% as of the midday close on November 4, with a trading volume of 3.783 million yuan [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The 中证500成长ETF (159606) closed at 1.135 yuan, with a year-to-date return of 14.93% since its inception on December 17, 2021 [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the 中证500质量成长指数收益率, managed by 易方达基金管理有限公司, with a recent one-month return of -1.01% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Major stocks in the 中证500成长ETF include: - 华工科技, down 1.33% - 恺英网络, down 3.59% - 东吴证券, down 1.36% - 科达利, down 2.91% - 恒玄科技, down 1.21% - 水晶光电, down 2.74% - 天山铝业, down 0.95% - 春风动力, down 1.26% - 杰瑞股份, up 4.44% - 金诚信, down 1.87% [1]