Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) increased by 0.44% as of December 12, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Luo Niu Shan (000735) up 6.21%, and BioShares (600201) up 2.99% [1] - The Central Reserve Frozen Pork Rotation Storage Auction will take place on December 18, 2025, with 3,100 tons available for bidding, as announced by the China Storage Network [1] - Recent analysis indicates that traditional peak season for pork consumption is leading to a steady recovery in demand, driven by colder weather and increased demand for cured meats in southern regions, although supply remains high due to previous production capacity [1] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.6% of the index, including Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming [1]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods, a leading player in the pig farming industry, is actively engaging in social welfare initiatives, demonstrating its commitment to corporate social responsibility through significant donations to various charitable causes [2][3]. Group 1: Recent Donations - Muyuan Foods announced a donation of 15 million yuan to the Henan Muyuan Agricultural Development Public Welfare Foundation, aimed at supporting rural revitalization, education, and agricultural innovation projects [2]. - This is the second donation made by the company in less than two months, following a previous contribution of 100 million yuan to the Hangzhou West Lake Education Foundation for educational and research development [3]. Group 2: Agricultural Support and Community Development - In its 2024 ESG report, Muyuan Foods highlighted its efforts to enhance farmers' income by providing technical support, which included services for 4.7208 million mu of farmland and training for 282,000 farmers, resulting in an income increase of 314.33 yuan per mu, totaling 1.353 billion yuan in increased income for farmers [4]. - The company has also invested 107 million yuan in rural infrastructure projects, benefiting 1,792 villages and improving living conditions for local residents [4]. Group 3: Educational Initiatives - Since 2003, Muyuan Foods has been involved in various educational support programs, donating a total of 434 million yuan, recognizing 35,400 outstanding educators, and providing support to 659,300 elementary school students [5]. - To ensure the sustainability and effectiveness of its charitable projects, the company established a volunteer team with 9,702 registered employees, contributing 71,900 hours of service across 24 provincial-level administrative regions in 2024 [5]. Group 4: Future Commitment - Muyuan Foods expressed its intention to continue pursuing high-quality and sustainable development, aiming to create more value for society and share a better future [6].

Core Insights - The pig industry is entering its peak season, but the market has not yet emerged from a "cold winter" with significant losses continuing despite increased sales volume [1][4] - Major listed pig companies have reported a general increase in slaughter volume, with some companies achieving their annual targets ahead of schedule, yet the average sales price has dropped nearly 30% year-on-year [1][4] Company Performance - Major listed pig companies have collectively slaughtered over 150 million pigs from January to November 2025, with companies like Wens Foodstuff and Zhengbang Technology completing their annual targets early [1][4] - In November, Muyuan Foods sold 6.602 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, while Wens Foodstuff reached a new high with 4.3535 million pigs sold, marking a 49.71% year-on-year increase [6][3] - Zhengbang Technology and Aonong Biological showed significant growth, with Zhengbang selling 868,300 pigs in November, up 63.04% year-on-year, and Aonong selling 160,000 pigs, up 72.21% year-on-year [3][6] Pricing Trends - Despite increased sales volume, the low pig prices have negatively impacted revenue for listed companies, with Muyuan's average sales price at 11.56 yuan/kg, down 28.73% year-on-year, and Wens' price at 11.71 yuan/kg, down 29.92% [3][6] - The price drop has led to a more significant decline in revenue for companies like Tangrenshen, which saw a 34.16% year-on-year decrease in sales revenue despite a 7.78% drop in sales volume [3][6] Market Dynamics - The long-term low performance of the pig market is attributed to an imbalance in supply and demand, with a high absolute number of breeding sows still present despite adjustments [4][7] - Experts indicate that while the pig market is expected to enter its peak consumption season, the overall price trend is likely to remain weak due to continued supply pressure from a high number of new piglets born earlier in the year [4][7]

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-118 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人所持质押股份情况如下： 单位：股 | 股东名称 | 持股数量 | 持股 | 本次业务办 | 本次业务办 | 占其所 | 占公司 | 已质押股份情况 已质押股份 | 占已质 | 未质押股份情况 未质押股 | 占未质 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 理前质押股 | 理后质押股 | 持股份 | 总股本 | | | | | | | | | 比例 | 份数量 | 份数量 | 比例 | 比例 | 限售和冻结 | 押股份 | 份限售和 | 押股份 | | | | | | | | | | 数量 | 比例 | 冻结数量 | 比例 | | | 秦英林 | 2,086,287,906 | 38.19% | 0 | | 0 - | - | 0 | - | 0 | | - | ...

Economic News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since 2025 [1] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the mineral law to prohibit the export of rare earth ores starting January 1, 2026, emphasizing strict control over exploration and processing [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a seminar in collaboration with the International Labour Organization [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of pilot innovation in manufacturing as a key link connecting innovation, technology, and industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support for the retail industry's innovation and transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will work with local governments to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote market diversification [1] - The China Textile Import and Export Chamber reported that yarn and fabric exports reached $69.18 billion from January to October 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special government bonds due in 2025, with a total face value of CNY 400 billion for the first phase and CNY 350 billion for the second phase [1] - The National Internet Information Office is conducting a special campaign to rectify online chaos in the automotive industry [1] - The Ministry of Education reported an increase in the number of students returning from studying abroad, with 495,000 expected to return in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [1] Company News - Pop Mart announced changes in its board of directors, with new appointments effective December 10, 2025 [4] - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of CNY 23.957 per share, totaling CNY 30 billion, with the ex-dividend date on December 19 [4] - Nanjing Highway plans to invest up to CNY 9.033 billion in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge southern connection project [4] - ZTE Corporation is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding compliance investigations related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [4] - Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue of $8 billion, a 34% increase, but below market expectations [4] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the strong cycle sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [5] - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies [6] - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with rising prices and a reduction in low-price competition [7] - The airline sector has improved performance due to lower oil prices and better management of ticket pricing, with a cautious approach to aircraft procurement expected to continue [8] - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, with a focus on high dividend yield and low debt ratio companies expected to gain more attention [9]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Muyuan Foods indicates that its shareholder, Muyuan Industry, has initiated the process to lift the pledge on a portion of its shares, reflecting a positive development in the company's financial stability [1] Group 1: Share Pledge Details - Muyuan Industry has lifted the pledge on 42.518 million shares, which accounts for 5.01% of its held shares and 0.78% of the total share capital of the company [1] - The pledge was originally secured by Zhongyuan Bank Nanyang Branch, with the pledge starting on November 11, 2022, and set to be lifted on December 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Remaining Pledged Shares - Following the lifting of the pledge, Muyuan Industry and its concerted parties have a remaining pledged share count of 47.5 million shares, representing 1.58% of their held shares and 0.87% of the total share capital [1] - The company asserts that the remaining pledged shares do not pose a substantial risk of capital repayment, indicating that the pledge risk is manageable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current downcycle in the pig industry is prolonged and complicated due to unprecedented situations, including simultaneous production efficiency improvements and a broad price decline [3][4]. Group 1: Production Efficiency and Costs - The African swine fever (ASF) drastically reduced production efficiency, pushing costs above 15 yuan per pig, but efforts have restored efficiency to pre-ASF levels, with leading companies like Muyuan achieving even better results [5][6]. - The decline in the number of breeding sows has been about 15% from the peak in 2021, yet pig prices remain at a decade low, indicating a significant disconnect between production capacity and market prices [6]. - Future improvements in production efficiency will be challenging, with Muyuan's cost reduction target for next year only at 0.5 yuan, suggesting a solid decline in actual production capacity [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The current downcycle is accompanied by a prolonged period of declining prices, with grain prices returning to a decade low and wages stagnating or declining, which discourages exits from the industry [7][8]. - The exit of high-cost producers has been gradual, with those operating at costs above 20 yuan being eliminated in 2021, and those above 14 yuan in 2023, while the current cycle is targeting producers with costs above 12 yuan [8]. - The capital-backed large-scale farming groups face significant challenges in exiting the market, making policy interventions aimed at this group crucial for industry capacity reduction [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current downcycle is nearing its end, with expectations that the capacity reduction will conclude by the end of Q1 or early Q2 next year, marking the end of the downtrend that began in 2021 [10][13]. - Pig prices are at a 12-year low, indicating limited downside potential, and the expectation is for prices to start rising as the capacity reduction concludes [14][16]. - Projections suggest that pig prices could range from 11.5 to 20 yuan throughout 2024, with a conservative average of 13.5 to 14 yuan, potentially leading to record profits for companies like Muyuan [17][19][26].

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods is one step away from achieving its "A+H" stock layout after passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing, despite facing challenges in the pork market and significant debt levels [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Muyuan Foods reported a revenue increase of 34.46% but a staggering net profit growth of 1169.77%, reaching 10.53 billion yuan [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.52%, and a net profit of 14.779 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.01% increase [1]. - The average selling price of pork decreased by 5.6% to 15.2 yuan/kg in the first half of the year, marking the lowest price level during the reporting period [2]. Dividend Distribution - Muyuan Foods distributed over 5 billion yuan in dividends to shareholders, marking it as one of the most generous dividend distributions in the pork industry this year [1][2]. - Over the past year, the company has distributed more than 12.5 billion yuan in dividends, with the largest shareholder, Qin Yinglin, set to receive approximately 4.921 billion yuan from these distributions [3]. Debt Levels - As of June 30, Muyuan Foods had a debt ratio of 56.06%, with total liabilities amounting to 104.52 billion yuan [3]. - By the end of September, the debt ratio decreased to 55.5%, with total liabilities reduced by approximately 9.8 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [3]. Market Conditions - The average price of live pigs in early December fell to 12.21 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 27.8%, while the average price of piglets dropped to 23.71 yuan/kg, down 29.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s slaughter volume reached 11.415 million heads in the first half of the year, representing a 10.8% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. Expansion Plans - Muyuan Foods is exploring overseas markets, having signed a cooperation agreement with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Joint Stock Company to build and operate livestock farming projects in Vietnam [4]. - The management believes that replicating its technology and production systems in overseas markets will yield good profits, with future capital expenditures expected to be lower than domestic levels [4].

Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently facing losses for both fat and piglet sales, indicating conditions for capacity reduction. The industry is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, presenting a left-side layout opportunity for the pig farming sector. A price turning point is anticipated in mid-2026 [16][20][34] - Major pig farming companies recommended include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with attention to Dekang Agriculture and New Hope. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller farming enterprises to watch include Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [16][34] Pig Industry Analysis - In 2025, the pig price fell below the cost line, leading to overall industry losses. By November, the average loss per self-breeding pig was 122 CNY per head, with an estimated annual profit of 30-80 CNY per head [20][23] - The industry is experiencing a significant reduction in breeding sow inventory, with a decrease to 39.9 million heads by October 2025, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [28][36] Dairy Industry Analysis - The raw milk price continued to decline in 2025, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory. As the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices are expected to rise in 2026-2027 [16][18] - The beef supply is also entering a contraction phase, with expectations for beef prices to rise in 2026, enhancing the performance elasticity of livestock companies [16][18] Feed Industry Analysis - The feed sector is expected to see stable water aquaculture production in 2026, while demand for livestock feed is projected to decline due to reduced breeding capacity. Domestic feed leaders are positioned to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [17][18] - The global feed industry is undergoing structural changes, providing opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand internationally [17] Animal Health Industry Analysis - The animal health sector faces intensified competition, with traditional vaccine product margins declining. Companies are shifting towards multi-business models, including pet health products, to open new growth avenues [17][18] Pet Food Industry Analysis - The pet food market is showing signs of consolidation, with leading companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. performing well. The long-term growth logic for the industry remains strong, supported by the rise of domestic brands [17][18] - Companies are also expanding their global production capabilities to mitigate trade friction impacts [17] Crop Industry Analysis - Corn prices are expected to rebound in 2025, with a potential strong performance in 2026. The seed industry is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with opportunities arising from transgenic innovations and industry consolidation [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The sales volume of major pig farming companies in China has generally declined in November, with some companies experiencing significant drops, while the industry is focusing on reducing production capacity and costs to improve supply-demand dynamics [1][2][7]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Major pig farming companies, including Tangrenshen and Zhengbang Technology, reported a decline in November sales, with Tangrenshen's sales volume dropping by 26.28% to 456,500 pigs [2]. - Other companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope also saw sales declines of over 6%, while Wens Foodstuff and Shennong Group maintained stable sales compared to October [1][3]. - The overall sales volume in October was high, and the industry is expected to meet annual targets despite the recent declines [1][4]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - The average price of pork in China as of the end of November was 22.86 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%, but the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous weeks [5]. - Prices remained stable from October to November, with Muyuan Foods reporting prices of 11.55 yuan/kg and 11.56 yuan/kg respectively [4]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Cost Management - The number of breeding sows has decreased to below 40 million, indicating a trend towards reduced production capacity in the industry [7]. - Several companies, including Tangrenshen and Tianbang Foods, have halted new capacity projects to focus on cost reduction and efficiency [8][9]. - The government and market forces are working together to stabilize the supply-demand situation in the pig market, which is expected to lead to more stable prices in the long term [9].