Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [45][46]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 0.74% from July 4 to July 17, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.93 percentage points [11][14]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with animal health, agricultural product processing, breeding, and planting sectors increasing by 8.71%, 2.56%, 1.42%, and 0.46% respectively, while the fishery and feed sectors saw declines of 1.8% and 4.2% [14][15]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.66 times, indicating a slight recovery, but still remains at a historical low, around 59.2% of the valuation center since 2006 [21][22]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 15.31 CNY/kg to 14.37 CNY/kg between July 4 and July 17, 2025 [24]. - As of June 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.43 million heads, slightly up by 0.02% from the previous month, which is 103.7% of the normal holding capacity of 39 million heads [24]. - The profit from self-breeding pigs is 90.89 CNY/head, while the profit from purchased piglets is -18.66 CNY/head, both showing a decline compared to the previous week [29]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks in major production areas was 1.37 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of layer chicks was 3.88 CNY/chick, which slightly decreased [31]. - The average price of white feather broilers was 6.4 CNY/kg, which has also decreased, with a profit of -2.93 CNY/chick, showing a slight recovery compared to the previous week [34]. - **Feed Costs**: - The spot price of corn was 2409.12 CNY/ton, showing a decline, while soybean meal prices were 2952 CNY/ton, which fluctuated in the last two weeks [26]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates an overall increase in pig production capacity this year, which may suppress pig prices. The breeding sow inventory has some room for reduction [45]. - The poultry sector continues to face pressure on profitability, with opportunities for marginal improvement [45]. - In the feed sector, there are opportunities arising from increased concentration among leading companies, cost reduction, and overseas expansion [45]. - The domestic pet market is expected to maintain rapid growth, with leading domestic brands likely to see significant growth [45]. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to focus on include: - Muyuan Foods (002714) - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) - Shennong Development (002299) - Haida Group (002311) - Bio-Stock (600201) - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) - Yiyi Co., Ltd. (001206) [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][9]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is currently experiencing weak market demand and low prices for livestock and poultry, particularly in the pig farming sector, which has seen a significant price drop [9][12]. - The report highlights that the industry is currently undervalued, with price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios below historical averages, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [9][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In June 2025, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.50%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.37 percentage points [9][12]. - The planting sector showed the highest gains, while the animal health processing sector experienced the largest declines [12]. Livestock Farming Data Tracking - **Pig Farming**: The average trading price for pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 2.16% month-on-month and 21.81% year-on-year. The market shifted to a surplus situation, leading to price declines [9][17]. - **Broiler Chickens**: The average price for broiler chicks in June 2025 was 2.15 yuan/chick, reflecting a slight decrease. The cautious replenishment of chicks due to declining prices further pressured the market [9][27]. Pet Food Sector - In May 2025, pet food exports totaled 28,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.52%. The cumulative export value for the first five months was $581 million, up 4.59% year-on-year [9][34]. Major Agricultural Product Price Tracking - The report includes tracking of key agricultural product prices, indicating fluctuations in corn, wheat, and soybean meal prices during June 2025 [9][39]. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The report outlines significant events in the industry, including a decrease in grain imports and ongoing developments in the seed industry aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity [9][46]. - Key announcements from listed companies in the sector include various asset restructuring and financing activities [9][48].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed strong performance in sectors such as banking, insurance, and liquor, while the consumer electronics sector underperformed [1][6]. Banking Sector - Everbright Bank had a market capitalization of 254.068 billion with a trading volume of 609 million, closing at 4.30, up by 0.03 (+0.70%) [3]. Insurance Sector - China Ping An and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 1,039.258 billion and 356.818 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 24.93 billion and 6.12 billion. Their stock prices increased by 0.42 (+1.15%) and 0.03 (+0.36%) [3]. Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,805.156 billion, 220.936 billion, and 480.465 billion respectively. Their trading volumes were 59.85 billion, 25.98 billion, and 30.62 billion, with stock price increases of 5.03 (+2.86%), 20.65 (+1.46%), and 1.13 (+0.92%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon had market capitalizations of 234.658 billion, 243.739 billion, and 318.365 billion respectively. Their trading volumes were 26.40 billion, 29.85 billion, and 16.55 billion, with stock price changes of +6.59 (+2.07%), -1.03 (-0.75%), and +0.22 (+0.04%) [3]. Oil Industry - Sinopec and PetroChina had market capitalizations of 271.538 billion and 705.647 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 8.53 billion and 6.48 billion. Their stock prices increased by 0.09 (+1.57%) and remained unchanged [3]. Coal Industry - China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 743.083 billion and 185.562 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 7.78 billion and 9.61 billion, with stock price increases of 0.27 (+0.73%) and 0.17 (+0.90%) [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 1,808.349 billion with a trading volume of 44.82 billion, closing at 329.11, up by 1.09 (+0.33%) [3]. Shipping and Port Sector - No specific data provided for this sector in the document [4]. Power Industry - No specific data provided for this sector in the document [4]. Securities Sector - CITIC Securities had a market capitalization of 420.014 billion with a trading volume of 18.87 billion, closing at 28.34, up by 0.09 (+0.32%) [4]. Battery Sector - CATL had a market capitalization of 1,236.485 billion with a trading volume of 59.82 billion, closing at 271.20, up by 5.70 (+2.15%) [4]. Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision had market capitalizations of 538.390 billion and 280.871 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 35.27 billion and 53.15 billion, with stock price decreases of -0.39 (-1.42%) and -0.67 (-1.70%) [4]. Home Appliances - Haidilao and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 268.195 billion and 241.985 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 10.06 billion and 8.44 billion, with stock price changes of +0.32 (+0.67%) and -0.02 (-0.08%) [4]. Chemical and Pharmaceutical Sector - Hengrui Medicine had a market capitalization of 251.506 billion with a trading volume of 38.81 billion, closing at 47.71, up by 1.35 (+2.91%) [4]. Logistics Sector - SF Holding had a market capitalization of 241.541 billion with a trading volume of 11.63 billion, closing at 46.04, up by 0.76 (+1.68%) [4]. Non-ferrous Metals - Mindray Medical had a market capitalization of 273.187 billion with a trading volume of 25.08 billion, closing at 225.32, up by 8.14 (+3.75%) [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with most sectors in the green, while the consumer electronics and internet services sectors experienced declines [1][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The banking sector, represented by Everbright Bank, had a market capitalization of 255.25 billion with a trading volume of 392 million, showing a slight increase of 1.17% [3]. - In the liquor industry, Kweichow Moutai led with a market cap of 1,797.53 billion and a trading volume of 3.923 billion, increasing by 1.37% [3]. - The semiconductor sector saw Northern Huachuang with a market cap of 233.94 billion and a trading volume of 1.908 billion, rising by 1.76% [3]. - In the oil sector, Sinopec had a market cap of 703.22 billion with a trading volume of 552 million, increasing by 1.22% [3]. - The coal industry was represented by China Shenhua with a market cap of 743.88 billion and a trading volume of 709 million, rising by 0.83% [3]. - In the automotive sector, BYD had a market cap of 1,793.90 billion with a trading volume of 516 million, but saw a decrease of 0.47% [3]. - The battery sector was led by CATL with a market cap of 4,189.77 billion and a trading volume of 1.153 billion, increasing by 0.88% [4]. - The consumer electronics sector, represented by Hon Hai Precision, had a market cap of 540.97 billion with a trading volume of 2.376 billion, decreasing by 0.74% [4]. - In the home appliance sector, Gree Electric had a market cap of 267.47 billion with a trading volume of 446 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.31% [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector was led by Hengrui Medicine with a market cap of 387.15 billion and a trading volume of 2.654 billion, increasing by 2.36% [4]. - The logistics sector, represented by SF Holding, had a market cap of 240.58 billion with a trading volume of 737 million, increasing by 1.04% [4].

Group 1: Financial Instruments and Market Trends - The first batch of Sci-tech Bond ETFs has been launched, increasing the total number of credit bond ETFs to 21, which will help attract more medium to long-term funds into the market [1] - Insurance companies have raised over 74 billion yuan in capital this year, indicating a sustained high demand for capital supplementation [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - The penetration rate of L2-level assisted driving in China has exceeded 50%, the highest globally, with emerging technologies like parking assistance also gaining traction [2] - The automotive industry's competitiveness is shifting from mechanical hardware to intelligence and AI, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to this new landscape [2] Group 3: Solar Industry Performance - The solar industry is facing significant challenges, with most companies in the supply chain reporting losses, highlighting a clear divergence in performance among firms [2] - Only 8 out of 30 solar companies that released half-year performance forecasts expect positive net profits, with only 2 showing year-on-year growth [2] Group 4: Swine Industry Insights - Despite a decline in pig prices, many pig farming companies are expected to report profits, driven by effective cost control measures [3] - The industry is focusing on regulating sow production capacity to stabilize prices, which may lead to increased market concentration [3] Group 5: Film Industry Performance - The summer film season has seen box office revenues surpass 3.5 billion yuan, with diverse genres and innovative themes contributing to its success [4] Group 6: AI and Robotics Innovations - A new AI framework for malaria diagnosis has achieved an accuracy rate of 96.47%, showcasing advancements in AI applications for disease control [4] - A new type of robot capable of self-growth and repair by absorbing surrounding materials has been developed, marking a significant step towards sustainable robotic systems [4] Group 7: Corporate Changes and Market Reactions - JD.com has criticized the recent "0 yuan purchase" promotions in the food delivery sector as a form of unhealthy competition [5] - Wahaha's sales have reportedly dropped significantly following legal issues faced by its chairman, raising concerns among distributors [5] - Good Products announced a significant change in its controlling shareholder, with the Wuhan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission set to become the actual controller [9] - Han's announcement of a fundraising adjustment indicates a focus on projects related to large model chip platforms and software [11] - Zongheng's actual controller's divorce has led to a significant change in shareholding structure, but control remains unchanged [11] - Gujia Home's CFO and board secretary have resigned, with new appointments made to fill these roles [10]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the continuous decline in pig prices, many listed pig farming companies are expected to report profits in the first half of 2025, primarily due to effective cost control measures [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - 14 pig farming companies have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 8 companies expected to turn losses into profits, including New Hope, Juxing Agriculture, and others [2][3]. - Muyuan Foods anticipates a net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26%, driven by a 32.5% increase in pig sales [2][3]. - New Hope expects a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses, with improved production metrics and reduced costs [2][3]. - Shennong Group forecasts a net profit of 341 million to 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175.12% to 238.85%, attributed to a 40.93% increase in pig sales and lower raw material costs [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The pig farming industry is undergoing a "reverse involution" aimed at regulating sow capacity and boosting pig prices, with a focus on reducing the number of breeding sows by approximately 1 million [4][5]. - The top three companies, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope, account for over 78% of total pig sales, indicating a trend towards increased industry concentration [4]. - The average selling prices of pigs have declined significantly, with Muyuan Foods reporting an average price of 14.08 yuan/kg in June, down 21% year-on-year [4][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Experts express cautious optimism for the pig market in the second half of the year, predicting a seasonal price increase but not a significant rise due to ample supply [6]. - The reduction in breeding sow capacity and overall weight of pigs is expected to positively impact pig prices in the medium to long term [6]. - The focus of competition in the pig farming industry is shifting from mere scale expansion to cost control and quality improvement, emphasizing the importance of detailed management practices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange shows a robust development trend, with significant profit growth expected for major companies in the sector in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - A total of 35 companies in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector have disclosed their performance forecasts, expecting a combined net profit of between 15.4 billion to 16.8 billion yuan [1]. - The leading companies, including Muyuan Foods, New Hope Liuhe, and Fujian Shengnong Development, are key contributors to the industry's growth [1]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Muyuan Foods is projected to achieve a net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [2]. - New Hope Liuhe expects a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 155.85% to 164.07% [2]. - Fujian Shengnong Development anticipates a net profit of 850 million to 950 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [2]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - Muyuan Foods attributes its profit increase to a rise in pig sales and a decrease in breeding costs, with the cost per kilogram dropping from 13.1 yuan to below 12.1 yuan [2]. - New Hope Liuhe's recovery is linked to successful biosecurity upgrades and improved production management, leading to reduced breeding costs despite lower average pig prices [3]. - Shengnong Development's growth is driven by a multi-channel strategy, cost advantages, and significant investment income from acquisitions [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the livestock industry's recovery, citing improved profitability and cost control among leading companies [5]. - The outlook for the domestic beef cycle is expected to turn positive in 2025, with a slight increase in pig output and stable prices anticipated [6]. - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to align with industry trends and support sustained growth [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the livestock industry, leading to a focus on market-driven capacity reduction and price expectations [1][3] - The livestock theme ETF, the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670), has attracted significant capital inflow, with nearly 62 million yuan net inflow on July 16, ranking first among its peers [1] - The reduction in breeding sows is evident, with the number of breeding sows recorded at 40.42 million as of the end of May, showing a downward trend [1][3] Group 2 - Companies are actively implementing measures to control the number of breeding sows, with leading firms like Muyuan Foods reducing their breeding sow inventory by 54,000 heads to 3.43 million, marking two consecutive quarters of reduction [1][3] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has decreased, with June's average weight at 90.3 kg, down 0.58% month-on-month and 2.11% year-on-year, influenced by policy guidance and high temperatures [3][6] - The livestock sector is expected to maintain a reasonable price stability in the short to medium term due to the policy-driven reduction of breeding sows, control of secondary fattening, and weight reduction [3][6] Group 3 - The overall valuation level of the pig sector remains attractive, with the latest valuation of the China Securities Livestock Index at 2.59 times PB, which is less than 9% of its historical percentile [6] - Long-term stable conditions in the pig farming industry are anticipated to sustain a certain level of profitability, with companies that excel in management and cost efficiency expected to maintain good profitability [6] - The demand side is expected to support pork consumption, with the domestic economy's stability and resilience enhancing the outlook for pig prices and the overall performance of the pig sector [6] Group 4 - The Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) closely tracks the China Securities Livestock Index, covering over 60% of the weight of stocks related to pig farming, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [6] - The ETF also includes upstream and downstream concepts related to pig farming, such as vaccines and feed, accounting for nearly 40% of its composition [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig feed industry is experiencing a decline in production, with a projected output of 14,391.3 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% [2]. Group 1: Production and Market Share - The share of pig feed in the overall industrial feed production has remained significant, with an expected share of 45.68% in 2024, maintaining above 40% since 2014 [3]. - The top ten provinces in pig feed production account for 66.3% of the national output, with Guangxi leading at 1,548.2 million tons, followed by Guangdong and Anhui [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The pig feed industry in China is highly competitive and fragmented, with an ongoing trend of consolidation among smaller producers. Larger companies with technological advantages are expected to dominate the market [7]. - The push for environmentally friendly and antibiotic-free feed is becoming mainstream, driven by government policies such as green agriculture and antibiotic-free farming [7][9]. - By 2025, it is anticipated that antibiotic-free feed will constitute around 40% of the pig feed market, presenting new investment opportunities [9]. - The concentration of the pig feed market is expected to increase, with the top ten companies projected to hold over 50% market share by 2030 [9].

Group 1 - As of July 15, 2025, 775 companies in the Shenzhen market disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 453 companies expecting a year-on-year net profit growth, accounting for approximately 58.45% [1] - Among the top 100 companies by market capitalization in Shenzhen, 21 disclosed performance forecasts, with 20 expecting year-on-year growth, collectively projecting a net profit of 51.2 billion to 56.9 billion yuan [1] - Leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Newyeason, and TCL Technology reported net profit growth exceeding 100% [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [2] - The increase in Muyuan Foods' profit is attributed to a rise in pig sales and a decrease in breeding costs compared to the same period last year, with sales of 38.394 million pigs [2] - Luxshare Precision, a leader in the consumer electronics sector, anticipates a net profit of approximately 6.475 billion to 6.745 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 25% [2] Group 3 - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has 34 companies forecasting a total net profit of 15.5 billion to 16.9 billion yuan, with New Hope expecting a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 164% [3] - The electronics sector has 59 companies forecasting a total net profit of 12.5 billion to 14.4 billion yuan, with notable companies like Huadian expecting a net profit of 1.65 billion to 1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 53.4% [3] - TCL Technology is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 101% [3]