丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨中矿资源（002738.SZ） [Table_Title] 锂价下滑盈利承压，静待铜及小金属资源放量 ——中矿资源 2024 年报暨 2025 一季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 全年实现归母净利 7.57 亿元，同比-66%；扣非归母净利 6.03 亿元，同比-72%。 2025Q1，公司实现归母净利 1.35 亿元，同比-47%，环比-36%；扣非归母净利 0.43 亿元，同 比-81%，环比-77%。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490520080021 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 王鹤涛 王筱茜 许红远 肖百桓 周相君 中矿资源（002738.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 锂价下滑盈利承压，静待铜及小金属资源放量 2] ——中矿资源 2024 年报暨 2025 一季报点评 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 757 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 66% year-on-year; the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 603 million yuan, down 72% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135 million yuan, a decline of 47% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter; the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 43 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year and 77% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The lithium segment's revenue for the year was 3.129 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year, accounting for 58% of total revenue; gross profit was 583 million yuan, representing 33% of total gross profit, with a gross margin of 18.62%, down 39.15 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The cesium and rubidium segment achieved revenue of 1.395 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, accounting for 26% of total revenue; gross profit was 1.092 billion yuan, representing 62% of total gross profit, with a gross margin of 78.29%, up 13.91 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company’s lithium salt production reached 43,700 tons, an increase of 138% year-on-year, while sales volume was 42,600 tons, up 145% year-on-year [10]. Business Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its lithium, copper, and cesium/rubidium business segments while exploring opportunities in gallium and germanium [10]. - The company is advancing capacity expansion in the lithium segment and actively pursuing a 30,000-ton lithium salt production line in Africa [10]. - In the copper segment, the Kitumba project has potential for continuous resource increase, with plans for 3.5 million tons of raw ore production and 60,000 tons of copper smelting capacity [10].

2025 年 05 月 26 日 特朗普再次宣布将对欧盟征收关税，避险情绪升 温推升金价 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申万) | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | | 沪深 300 | 2.5 | -2.0 | 7.8 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：下游开工 向好以及库存去化，铜铝价格维持 较强走势》2025-04-28 2、《有色金属行业周报：关税影响 美国经济滞涨风险增大，金价支撑 仍然强劲》2025-04-21 3、《有色金属行业周报：美国通胀 持续走弱，降息预期提升支撑金 价》2025-04-14 ▌黄金：特朗普再次宣布将对欧盟征收关税，避险 情绪升温推升金价 数据方面，美国 5 月 Markit 制 ...

行业相对表现 2025 年 05 月 26 日 特朗普再次宣布将对欧盟征收关税，避险情绪升 温推升金价 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申万) | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | | 沪深 300 | 2.5 | -2.0 | 7.8 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：下游开工 向好以及库存去化，铜铝价格维持 较强走势》2025-04-28 2、《有色金属行业周报：关税影响 美国经济滞涨风险增大，金价支撑 仍然强劲》2025-04-21 3、《有色金属行业周报：美国通胀 持续走弱，降息预期提升支撑金 价》2025-04-14 ▌黄金：特朗普再次宣布将对欧盟征收关税，避险 情绪升温推升金价 数据方面，美国 5 月 Markit 制 ...

证券研究报告 金属大典（2025年版） 行业评级：看好 2025年5月26日 n 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.c 证书编号 S1230523080011 证书编号 S1230523100001 邮箱 wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn 分析师 沈皓俊 分析师 王南清 研究助理 何玉静 沈家悦 张轩 01 铜业弹性表 | 添加标题 | | --- | 资料来源：公司年报，公司公告，公司公众号，浙商证券研究所。注： 2 2025-2027年产量数据为预测值，存在预测偏差风险。江西铜业 统计公司自有矿数据；云南铜业统计并表产量口径；金诚信2024-2026年产量中未统计Lubambe铜矿（因公告矿山处于技改阶段）。 电解铝股弹性表（2025年5月） 02 我们梳理了电解铝企业2025年产量弹性以及利润弹性： （1）从吨铝市值来看：目前云铝/宏桥最低，约为21000元/吨，中铝次之，电解铝资产较纯粹，资产价值亟待重估。 （2）从PE来看：由于产能基本固定，盈利能力成为电解铝公司比拼的核心要点，目前宏桥港股/神火/中铝港股PE 偏低。2025年氧化铝价格波动性走低，带动云铝/神火/ ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 25 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 关税威胁再起，美铜大涨 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/19-2025/5/23） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页 / 共 16页 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜 ： 关 税 威 胁 再 起 ， 美 铜 大 涨 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +0.55%/-0.45 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The lithium mining industry is experiencing significant changes, with companies refusing to cut production despite declining lithium prices. The report highlights that the overall production capacity remains stable, with companies opting for maintenance and upgrades instead of large-scale shutdowns [8][27] - The report indicates that the lithium price has dropped from 97,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 72,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year, leading to a substantial decrease in profit margins for companies [8][27] - The report suggests that the current downturn in lithium prices may require some companies to exit the market for supply-side adjustments to occur [8] Summary by Sections Production - In 2024, the lithium salt production of the sample companies reached 447,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47% [11] - The total lithium salt production in China was 1,029,000 tons, with a 39% year-on-year growth [11] Inventory - Social inventory of lithium salt increased significantly, reaching 143,300 tons by August 2024, before slightly decreasing to 128,400 tons due to seasonal demand [16] - The inventory of listed companies decreased from 48,100 tons to 30,200 tons, a 37% year-on-year decline [16] Cost - The production cost of lithium salt decreased by 41%, from 112,200 yuan/ton in 2023 to 66,700 yuan/ton in 2024 [18] - The cost reduction is attributed to lower raw material prices and improved production efficiency [18] Revenue - The total revenue from lithium salt for the 12 listed companies was 36.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 40.2% decrease year-on-year [30] - The average selling price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 65% to 90,500 yuan/ton in 2024 [30] Net Profit - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the 12 listed companies dropped by 81% to 5.785 billion yuan in 2024 [37] - The decline was primarily due to reduced revenue and increased asset impairment losses [37] Profitability - The gross margin for the companies was 25.38%, down 14.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.52%, down 11.6 percentage points [46] Expenses - The total expenses for the 12 companies reached 12.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.6% increase year-on-year [55] - Financial expenses increased significantly, particularly for companies like Tianqi Lithium and Huayou Cobalt [55] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the 12 listed companies totaled 18.6 billion yuan in 2024, a 43% year-on-year decline [64] - The report indicates that companies are entering a period of reduced capital spending due to cash flow pressures [64] Debt Servicing Ability - The average cash ratio for the companies was 0.64, a 22 percentage point decrease year-on-year, while the debt-to-asset ratio increased to 33% [71] - The report notes that while short-term debt servicing ability is under pressure, it remains within a reasonable range [71]

Group 1 - The China Securities Subdivision Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) has seen a strong increase of 2.15%, with constituent stocks such as Zijin Mining (601899) rising by 5.44% and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) by 5.16% [1] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) has also increased by 2.08%, with a latest price of 0.93 yuan, and has accumulated a rise of 2.35% over the past month [1] - The trading volume for the Nonferrous 50 ETF was 5.77% with a transaction value of 15.1285 million yuan, and the average daily transaction value over the past year was 20.6154 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The London spot gold price has risen, breaking through $3,310 per ounce, currently reported at $3,314 per ounce, influenced by a weak US dollar and escalating international geopolitical tensions [4] - Moody's has downgraded the US government's credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, ending a 106-year streak of maintaining the highest rating, which has led to a significant increase in US Treasury yields [4] - Long-term factors such as high US debt and deficit rates, potential re-inflation risks, complex global geopolitical situations, and gold purchases by multiple central banks are expected to support gold prices [4] Group 3 - There is a recommendation to focus on leading scale companies and the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) for those optimistic about the recovery of precious metals and industrial metal cycles [5] - The suggestion includes investing in off-market connections (Class A: 019164; Class C: 019165) to capture the economic recovery and interest rate easing expectations [5]

证券研究报告 锂业弹性表2025年5月 行业评级：看好 2025年5月21日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 分析师 | 王南清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | 证书编号 | S1230523100001 | 01 锂业弹性表 预计2025年自有矿权益产量最多的为：天齐锂业，赣锋锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的为：赣锋锂业，天齐锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 2024至2026年产量增速较快的为：雅化集团，川能动力，西藏矿业，赣锋锂业，紫金矿业。 增量分析： 2 3 03 风险提示 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）中矿资源：未来几年主要增量为Bikita项目增产。 4）永兴材料：未来几年增量为化山瓷石 ...

锂业弹性表2025年5月 行业评级：看好 2025年5月21日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 分析师 | 王南清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | 证书编号 | S1230523100001 | 01 锂业弹性表 预计2025年自有矿权益产量最多的为：天齐锂业，赣锋锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的为：赣锋锂业，天齐锂业，中矿资源，华友钴业。 2024至2026年产量增速较快的为：雅化集团，川能动力，西藏矿业，赣锋锂业，紫金矿业。 增量分析： 2 证券研究报告 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）中矿资源：未来几年主要增量为Bikita项目增产。 4）永兴材料：未来几年增量为化山瓷石矿项目扩产建成增产。 ...