证券研究报告 | 2025年11月28日 核心观点 金融工程周报 金融工程·数量化投资 证券分析师：张欣慰 证券分析师：胡志超 021-60933159 021-60375486 zhangxinwei1@guosen.com.cn huzhichao@guosen.com.cn S0980520060001 S0980524070001 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 221 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 3.50%、5.40%、4.66%、6.85%、4.10%、 2.78%、8.17%、13.77%。中信一级行业指数中家电、纺织服装、轻工制 造、基础化工、通信行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、综合金 融、非银行金融、医药、房地产行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指 数中，家居用品、卫星导航、锂矿、林木、卫星互联网、万得微盘股日 频等权、操作系统等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月28日 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 221 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 3.50%、5.40%、4.66%、6.85%、4.10%、 2.78%、8.17%、13.77%。中信一级行业指数中家电、纺织服装、轻工制 造、基础化工、通信行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、综合金 融、非银行金融、医药、房地产行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指 数中，家居用品、卫星导航、锂矿、林木、卫星互联网、万得微盘股日 频等权、操作系统等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，共 1043 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是基础化工、电力设备及新能源、机械行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是 纺织服装、电力设备及新能源、煤炭行业。按照板块分布来看，本周周期、 制造板块创新 ...

11月28日，有色大放异彩。截至13时50分，矿业ETF(159690)涨1.46%，一度涨1.99%，成分股盛新锂 能、中矿资源、厦门钨业、兴业银锡涨幅居前。 银河证券发布研报表示：2024年行业触底企稳后，2025年中美达成日内瓦协议宏观预期的修复，美国加 征关税、中国反制措施及其他资源国矿产资源管制等政策下的供应链扰动、美联储降息周期中的流动性 宽松，使有色金属价格与行业业绩增速持续提升，确立了有色金属行业进入新一轮上行周期。2026年上 述逻辑有望继续推动有色金属商品价格上涨与提升有色金属企业的盈利能力，延续有色金属行业的景气 上行行情。 贵金属：黄金牛市有望延续。美联储继续降息与可能开启扩表，流动性边际宽松将带动全球黄金ETF基 金持续购金，推升金价。美国债务的加速增长与美联储"独立性"或将动摇使美国信用问题加剧，全 球"去美元"开始实质化启动，全球央行与全球私人投资机构或将增加黄金购买量以提升资产组合中黄金 的配置比例，将成为黄金中期上涨逻辑。 工业金属：铜矿供给叙事延续，长周期景气向上不改。铜矿生产扰动常态化对有效供给形成约束，且未 来全球铜矿新投建项目有限，而冶炼产能集中释放，矿端紧缺难以改变 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant rise in rare metal stocks driven by the dual forces of new energy transition and high-end manufacturing upgrades, with the rare metal theme index showing a strong performance [1][2] - As of November 27, 2025, the rare metal ETF fund has accumulated a 15.14% increase over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest and market momentum [1] - The liquidity of the rare metal ETF fund is notable, with a turnover rate of 5.29% and a total transaction volume of 975.95 million yuan, reflecting active trading [1] Group 2 - The strategic value of rare metals is emphasized, with traditional demand remaining stable while emerging fields like humanoid robots and low-altitude economy are becoming significant growth drivers [2] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration due to tighter domestic supply controls and enhanced export regulations, which are expected to support rising rare metal prices and improve corporate profitability [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the rare metal theme index account for 60% of the index, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum leading the way [2][4]

Group 1 - The A-share market for lithium mining stocks is experiencing a strong upward trend, with several companies nearing their daily price limits [1] - Major gainers include Dazhong Mining approaching the limit, Shengxin Lithium Energy rising over 8%, and Guocheng Mining, Yahua Group, and others increasing by over 5% [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive, indicated by the MACD golden cross signal formation, suggesting a favorable outlook for these stocks [2] Group 2 - Dazhong Mining has a market capitalization of 47.4 billion and has increased by 270.25% year-to-date [2] - Shengxin Lithium Energy has a market capitalization of 32.6 billion with a year-to-date increase of 158.49% [2] - Other notable companies include Guocheng Mining with a market cap of 29.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 114.30%, and Yahua Group with a market cap of 25.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 91.27% [2]

11月27日，中矿资源跌0.31%，成交额15.21亿元。两融数据显示，当日中矿资源获融资买入额2.14亿 元，融资偿还1.73亿元，融资净买入4049.17万元。截至11月27日，中矿资源融资融券余额合计20.62亿 元。 融资方面，中矿资源当日融资买入2.14亿元。当前融资余额20.33亿元，占流通市值的4.42%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，中矿资源11月27日融券偿还3.05万股，融券卖出8.95万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 570.38万元；融券余量46.07万股，融券余额2936.03万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 截至9月30日，中矿资源股东户数5.86万，较上期减少11.15%；人均流通股12139股，较上期增加 12.55%。2025年1月-9月，中矿资源实现营业收入48.18亿元，同比增长34.99%；归母净利润2.04亿元， 同比减少62.58%。 分红方面，中矿资源A股上市后累计派现17.28亿元。近三年，累计派现15.92亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，中矿资源十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing a rebound, driven by increased demand from downstream industries such as energy storage and power batteries, alongside supply-side uncertainties [1] Industry Summary - As of November 27, 2025, the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index rose by 0.54%, with notable increases in stocks such as Yunnan Zhenye (+5.63%) and Tin Industry Co. (+4.90%) [1] - The price of lithium carbonate futures previously exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton due to significant growth in demand and supply constraints [1] - The scarcity of strategic minor metals, coupled with rapid growth in demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries, is intensifying supply-demand conflicts [1] - Future price trends for rare metals are expected to continue upward due to ongoing resource scarcity, demand structure upgrades, and policy adjustments [1] Company Summary - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Research, the small metals sector is anticipated to see positive changes in 2026, with energy storage demand driving an earlier reversal in the lithium carbonate industry cycle [1] - The value of strategic minor metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is expected to be continuously reassessed in the context of de-globalization [1] - The restructuring of the global credit landscape and the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will support the favorable trends for precious and minor metals [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 60% of the index, including companies like Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

第2笔成交价格为63.93元，成交4.60万股，成交金额294.08万元，溢价率为0.00%，买方营业部为机构专 用，卖方营业部为机构专用。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生4笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为2526.42万元。该股近5个交易日累 计下跌8.50%，主力资金合计净流入1.5亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月26日，中矿资源收涨3.82%，收盘价为63.93元，发生2笔大宗交易，合计成交量9.2万股，成交金额 588.16万元。 第1笔成交价格为63.93元，成交4.60万股，成交金额294.08万元，溢价率为0.00%，买方营业部为机构专 用，卖方营业部为机构专用。 ...

消息面上，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周二表示，由于美联储过高的利率目标，导致就业市场恶化。他建 议加大降息力度以支持经济。芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场预计美联储12月会议上降息25个基点 的概率为84.9%。 今日（11月26日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格一度摸高0.8%，现涨 0.46%，盘中收复5日均线，冲击日线2连涨。 值得一提的是，该ETF近10日累计吸金2.06亿元，反映资金看好有色后市表现，积极进场抢筹！数据显 示，截至11月25日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模6.86亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产 品中，是规模最大的ETF。 成份股方面，云铝股份、中矿资源领涨超3%，北方铜业、铜陵有色、兴业银锡、华峰铝业、楚江新材 涨逾2%，涨幅居前。权重股方面，山东黄金、华友钴业涨超1%，洛阳钼业、赣锋锂业飘红。 预示指数未来表现。本文中指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议，也不代表管理 人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R3-中风险，适宜平衡型 （C3）及以上的投资者，适当性匹配意见请以销售机构为准。 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to monitor market trends and identify potential market leaders. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market trends and highlights stocks or indices that are leading the market, aligning with the principles of momentum and trend-following strategies[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories are associated with stronger momentum effects[24][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following criteria: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day price change in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Ratio of price displacement to the total price path - **Sustainability of New Highs**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24][27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative distance of a stock's price from its 250-day high, serving as an indicator of momentum and trend strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, making it a reliable indicator for identifying market leaders[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period - Rank stocks based on this ratio and select the top performers[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33]