Group 1 - The interest of mutual funds in the Hong Kong market slightly decreased in Q4 of last year, with strong capital inflows into the metals and financial sectors [1] - By the end of 2025, the structure of stock holdings in equity and mixed mutual funds diversified, with the top 50 holdings' share of total stock investments dropping from 25.8% to 25.1% [1] - The proportion of Hong Kong stocks in mutual fund heavyweights decreased from a peak of 17.8% to 16.3% [1] Group 2 - Driven by global metal market trends, Chinese mutual funds significantly increased their investments in metal stocks in Q4, with a quarterly rise of 1.7 percentage points [2] - Fund managers showed optimism towards banks and diversified financials, with notable inflows into Industrial Bank and ICBC [2] - For Q1 2026, mutual funds are expected to have a higher risk tolerance post profit-taking, with AI and metals remaining key investment themes [2]

2026年1月28日早盘，小金属板块盘中拉升，截至10:31，中证稀有金属主题指数上涨0.23%，成分股东 方钽业上涨8.41%，株冶集团上涨5.25%，中金岭南上涨4.36%，西部材料上涨4.35%，安宁股份上涨 3.89%。 消息方面，据中钨在线1月26日数据，以人民币吨价计，钨精矿价格逼近55万关口，仲钨酸铵价格站上 80万高位，钨粉价格突破130万大关。此外，2026年1月23日工业级碳酸锂价格冲高至16.80万元/吨，周 涨幅达9.80%；同期磷酸铁锂（动力型）价格较1月4日上涨4.43%，六氟磷酸锂虽小幅回落但仍处高 位。 长城证券测算指出，当前碳酸锂、稀土、锑等品种在下游应用中的静态成本占比已接近历史高位，但考 虑到顺价存在滞后性，且风电等敏感领域2026年仍有10%以上需求增速，顺价大概率落地，有望进一步 打开上游材料及权益端上涨空间。此外，1月21日雅保拍卖Wodgina所产5.49%锂辉石精矿成交价达 16,852元/干吨（镇江港自提），海外锂资源溢价明显；刚果（金）政府亦向美国提交国有矿产资产短 名单，地缘供给扰动持续强化战略金属稀缺属性。 稀有金属ETF（562800）跟踪中证稀有金属 ...

近期，宜春八矿中已有两矿更新进度，处于换证进程中。 自然资源部采矿许可信息查验系统显示，宜春国轩矿业有限责任公司的水南矿开采主矿种已变更为"锂 矿"，说明已经进入换证阶段。同样，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿的开采主矿种也变更为"锂矿"。此前，枧下 窝锂矿已于2025年12月18日进入第一次环评公示阶段，公示期为10个工作日。 关于换证停产问题，国轩高科回应记者称，目前也在了解情况，以公司公开信息为准。 按照有关法规，换证期间矿山应处于停产状态。《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》规定，变更主要开采矿 种的，采矿权人应当在采矿许可证有效期内，向登记管理机关申请变更登记。任何单位和个人未领取采 矿许可证擅自采矿的，由登记管理机关依照有关法律、行政法规的规定予以处罚。 新的采矿许可证下达或仍需等待较长周期。一位业内知情人士告诉记者，矿山企业申请变更开采主矿 种，是矿业权管理中的重大变更登记事项之一，其办理周期长、流程复杂、不确定性高。通常，一个完 整的变更流程至少需要1.5年至3年甚至更长时间，具体周期受项目基础、地区政策、审批层级等因素影 响巨大。其中，如涉及重做或重大变更，环评报告需重新报批，整个过程包括编制、公示、评审、批 复 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical events are accelerating the de-dollarization process, leading to a broad increase in commodity prices [4] - Precious metals are recommended for strong holding due to rising demand driven by political events and net selling pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds, with gold and silver prices increasing by 8.30% and 14.80% respectively [4] - Copper prices have risen by 1.09% due to a temporary easing of European risks, but there are signs of weak demand from downstream sectors [5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as supply continues to grow while demand shows signs of stabilization [5] - Tin prices have rebounded significantly due to macroeconomic factors and uncertainties in supply from conflict regions [6] - Lithium prices are on the rise due to low inventory levels and strong demand expectations, indicating a potential upward trend [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 9972.0, with a weekly high of 9972.0 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price changes: copper up 1.09%, aluminum up 0.25%, zinc up 1.08%, lead down 1.43%, and tin up 13.57% [19] - Precious metals experienced significant increases: gold up 8.30% and silver up 14.80% [19] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 13.25% due to supply constraints [19] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: copper increased by 38,104 tons, aluminum by 21,952 tons, zinc by 2,662 tons, lead by 12,077 tons, tin by 16 tons, and nickel decreased by 1,711 tons [33][35]

机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，中矿资源十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1739.65万股，相比上期增加98.88万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第四大流通股 东，持股1052.36万股，相比上期减少21.70万股。东方新能（维权）源汽车主题混合（400015）位居第 五大流通股东，持股966.44万股，相比上期减少143.91万股。南方中证申万有色金属ETF发起联接A （004432）位居第九大流通股东，持股586.38万股，为新进股东。 1月23日，中矿资源涨5.36%，成交额26.36亿元。两融数据显示，当日中矿资源获融资买入额2.57亿 元，融资偿还2.46亿元，融资净买入1194.26万元。截至1月23日，中矿资源融资融券余额合计25.05亿 元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 融资方面，中矿资源当日融资买入2.57亿元。当前融资余额24.89亿元，占流通市值的3.57%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 截至9月30日，中矿资源股东户数5.86万，较上期减少11.15%；人均流通股12139股，较上期增加 12.55%。2025年1月-9月， ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

有色金属周报 20260125 避险情绪持续升温，金银引领商品价格大涨 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 37.56 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 22.76 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 36 | 26 | 18 | 推荐 | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 32.64 | 1.27 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 26 | 17 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | 78.65 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 4.17 | 31 | 25 | 19 | 推 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a bullish outlook for the metals sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a recovering global economy, particularly in China [3][44] - Key investment themes for 2026 include expanding demand for precious metals like gold and silver, improving fundamentals for aluminum and copper, strategic opportunities in rare earths, and supply-side disruptions due to overcapacity in certain sectors [3][4] Group 1: Precious Metals - The report suggests a long-term bullish view on gold, with expectations of price increases driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][44] - Silver is also highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its high price ratio to gold, indicating potential for significant price appreciation [3] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH), which are expected to benefit from increased production and operational efficiencies [4] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The report notes that aluminum and copper are set to see improved profitability due to lower production costs and increased demand, particularly in the context of infrastructure investments [3][4] - Companies such as Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH) are identified as having strong positions in the copper market, with expected profit growth [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain dynamics, particularly in copper, where inventory levels are shifting significantly [18][58] Group 3: Rare Earths and Strategic Metals - The report identifies rare earth elements as a critical area for investment, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions between the US and China, which may create opportunities for companies involved in rare earth mining and processing [3][4] - Companies like Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) and China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) are highlighted for their potential to benefit from price increases in rare earth materials [4] Group 4: Energy Metals - The report discusses the rebound in lithium and nickel prices, driven by strong demand from the battery sector, with specific mention of companies like Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) [4][27] - The expected growth in energy storage solutions is also noted as a significant driver for demand in these metals [4] Group 5: Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is noted to have outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 96.46% in 2025 compared to a 21.65% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [33][35] - The report indicates that while the sector has seen significant gains, valuations are currently at historical averages, suggesting potential for further growth [35]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and strategic focus of the Bosera New Energy Theme Mixed A Fund, emphasizing its investment in high-growth and low-penetration sectors within the new energy industry, particularly in electric equipment and solid-state batteries [3][4]. Fund Performance - The fund reported a profit of 440,800 yuan in Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per share of 0.0022 yuan [3]. - The net asset value (NAV) growth rate for the fund was 0.39% during the reporting period, with a total fund size of 162 million yuan as of the end of Q4 [3][15]. - As of January 22, the fund's unit NAV was 0.872 yuan [3]. Comparative Performance - Over the past three months, the fund's NAV growth rate was 12.65%, ranking 49 out of 100 among comparable funds [4]. - The fund's NAV growth rate over the past six months was 41.54%, ranking 31 out of 100 [4]. - The one-year NAV growth rate was 52.48%, ranking 36 out of 92 [4]. - The three-year NAV growth rate was 10.94%, ranking 31 out of 68 [4]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.4889, ranking 25 out of 66 among comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 46.79%, with the highest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q2 2022 at 22.22% [11]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated an increased allocation to high-growth and low-penetration sectors within the new energy industry, specifically targeting electric equipment exports and upstream lithium battery materials [3]. - The solid-state battery sector is highlighted as a low-penetration area, with expectations for mass production to begin in 2026 and scale deployment in 2027 [3]. Portfolio Composition - As of December 31, the fund's top ten holdings included companies such as CATL, Sungrow Power Supply, and Tianqi Lithium [18]. - The average stock position over the past three years was 86.14%, with a peak of 89.88% at the end of Q1 2023 [14].