摘要 津巴布韦禁令既是短期供应与价格层面的冲击，更是长期供应链安全的警示 2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口。 2月26日，国内碳酸锂价格应声狂飙，其中期货价格直逼19万元/吨，锂矿概念股同期大幅高开。 "禁令"落地 从卖矿到卖加工品 津巴布韦此番政策调整极具严苛性，禁止范围包括 所有锂原矿、锂精矿 出口，并规定禁令 立即生效 ，即使是在途货物也不能幸免。 | | 津巴布韦禁令核心要点 | | --- | --- | | 维度 | 内容 | | 生效时间 | 立即生效,解除时间待定(覆盖在途货物) | | 禁止范围 | 所有锂原矿、锂精矿出口 | | 出口资质 | 仅持有有效采矿权 + 自有获批选矿 / 冶炼厂的企业可申请豁免 | | 贸易限制 | 全面禁止第三方贸易商、代理出口 | | 长期目标 | 2027 年全面禁止锂精矿出口,仅允许硫酸锂等深加工产品 | 而禁令的根本动因则是津巴布韦 希望摆脱原料出口国的身份桎梏，争夺锂电产业链的附加值话语权 。 简单来说，就是不再卖矿而是卖加工品，减少赚差价的中间商，把更多的利润留给自己。 在全球锂价上涨的浪潮中，不同资源国的收益差距悬殊：津 ...

Group 1 - Huang Yanming, the director of Dongfang Securities Research Institute, stated that the next investment focus in A-shares will be on mid-cap blue chips, moving away from the previous high-growth tech and high-dividend strategies [1] - The investment focus will be on three main areas: globally priced cyclical goods such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and global shipping; manufacturing sectors related to technology and national strength enhancement, including military industry, robotics, and new energy; and technology sectors related to large model performance realization [1] Group 2 - The International Institute of Finance reported that global debt has surged to a record $348 trillion, increasing by nearly $29 trillion, marking the fastest growth since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Government debt in countries like the United States and the Eurozone exceeds $10 trillion [2] Group 3 - Several lithium mining companies expect Zimbabwe's lithium ore exports to resume within one month after a temporary suspension [3] - Companies like Zhongmin Resources and Yahua Group are preparing to submit supplementary materials for export applications, indicating that the ban is expected to be lifted soon [3] Group 4 - Overseas tech companies are increasingly turning to loans backed by chips, particularly GPUs, to fund their substantial AI investments, with Moody's beginning to rate GPU-backed debt [4] - NAND flash memory prices are rising due to ongoing shortages, prompting major manufacturers like Phison to require advance payments from customers [4] Group 5 - The Chinese smartphone industry is set to experience a comprehensive price increase starting in March 2026, with new models expected to rise by at least 1,000 yuan [5] - Major brands such as OPPO, OnePlus, Vivo, iQOO, Xiaomi, and Honor are likely to raise prices for older models as well, marking a historic trend of simultaneous price hikes across all categories and brands [5] Group 6 - CCD cameras, once common, have seen a resurgence in popularity, with prices for certain models skyrocketing in the second-hand market [6] - Young consumers are driving this trend, primarily for the aesthetic quality of the images produced by these cameras [6] Group 7 - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 32.7 billion yuan for Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [7] - The net profit attributable to Baidu was 1.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 5% [7] Group 8 - ByteDance's valuation is reportedly around $550 billion, as investment firm General Atlantic is selling part of its stake [8] - This valuation places ByteDance between Tencent and Alibaba in terms of market capitalization [8] Group 9 - New Hope Liuhe announced a cash investment of 74.87 million yuan to acquire a 70% stake in Luochuan Lingxian Company [9] - The investment will be used for both purchasing shares and increasing capital for the company [9] Group 10 - Aokema plans to acquire a 45% stake in its subsidiary Qingdao Aokema Smart Industry Co., Ltd. for 253 million yuan, aiming for full ownership [10] - The transaction is part of a strategy to consolidate control over its subsidiary [10]

图片来 源：图虫创意 津巴布韦暂停锂精矿和原矿出口。 2月25日，新华财经披露了上述消息，此次暂停令还包括了目前所有在途的矿产。 受该消息影响，2月26日，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度大涨12%，触及18.7万元/吨。截至当日收盘，上涨 3.47%，报17.37万元/吨。 现货方面，上海钢联最新数据显示，2月26日，电池级碳酸锂早盘均价报17.31万元/吨，较前一工作日 上涨8650元。 根据修订后的其他矿产出口要求，只有持有有效采矿权和已获批选矿厂的矿业公司才被授权出口。代理 商和第三方贸易商无权代表采矿权持有人出口矿产。 出口许可证申请必须包括相关省级矿业办公室出具的建议书，详细说明选矿能力和合规状况，以及每批 货物的矿物成分申报。 津巴布韦政府表示，此举旨在加强矿产问责制，促进选矿增值，并最大限度地提高津巴布韦境内的价值 留存。 津巴布韦在2月17日就曾宣布，为遏制矿物出口中的不当行为和矿物流失，决定调整所有矿物及选矿产 成品的出口流程和框架，并建立有效框架。 在此期间，由于相关政府部门调整其流程，采矿业在出口许可证的处理和签发方面可能遇到暂时性延 误。为此，所有申请新出口许可证和续签现有出口许可证者，应至少 ...

华友钴业相关负责人表示，此次津巴布韦的"出口禁令"主要是对违规出口的监管，公司的采矿证是当地 矿业部颁发的，目前尚不确定具体影响程度。 雅化集团相关负责人表示："公司已提前把津巴布韦生产的锂精矿全部发运出来。最近一段时间，当 地'暂停出口'对公司的生产端不会造成影响。" 该负责人进一步表示："根据文件看，未在当地取得采矿证及选矿资质的贸易商与代理商，已不具备出 口资质。但雅化集团可以继续申请出口，只需要在出口许可流程上补充相关资料，公司已着手推进相关 工作。" 2月26日，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度涨超11%。同时，A股锂矿板块高开。消息面上，当地时间2月25 日，津巴布韦矿业部发文称，已暂停所有锂原矿和锂精矿的出口，即刻生效。此次暂停出口包括所有目 前正在运输途中的矿产，暂无明确恢复出口的时间表。 中国证券报记者梳理获悉，上市公司盛新锂能、华友钴业、中矿资源、天华新能、雅化集团均在津巴布 韦有锂矿等布局。 作为新兴的锂资源大国，津巴布韦"出口禁令"对于中国锂的供应及价格走势有何影响？中国证券报记者 进行了多方采访。 上市公司回应 此次津巴布韦的新政策对于在当地布局的A股上市公司有哪些影响？ 2月26日，中矿资源 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情走势 01 2月26日， 碳酸锂期货主力合约高开低走，开盘一度逼近涨停，涨超11%，截至午后收盘，碳酸锂涨幅收窄至3.47%，报收173660元/吨。 消息面上 ， 2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口（含在途货物），旨在加强矿产监管与问责。未来仅持有效采矿 权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商出口。 申请时需提交省级矿业办关于选矿能力及合规的建议信，并申报矿物 成分。违规者（如续用过期待办）将吊销出口许可乃至采矿权。 此前，2月24日市场传出津巴布韦全部锂矿企业出口再次被MMCZ（津巴布韦矿产营销公司，Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe）叫停，并有落款日期为2026年2月18日的相关文件流出。经与在津巴布韦有产能的中资企业核实，确实存在部分无出口许可的 矿山因锂价上涨而伪造出口许可的情况，矿业部遂要求MMCZ进行整改。原本合法的出口仍可使用原有额度，且已陆续恢复。 然而， 2月25日津巴布韦矿业部直接宣布的禁运涵盖在途货物，且无缓冲期，事发突然。 ...

专题：A股节后迎高胜率窗口 新一轮上行可期 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2．电网设备 北京科锐、神马股份、杭电股份等多股涨停。 截至收盘，沪指报4146.63点，跌0.01%；深证成指报14503.79点，涨0.19%；创指报3344.98点，跌 0.29%。 盘面上，元件、CPO、铜缆高速连接板块涨幅居前；影视院线、保险、房地产板块跌幅居前。 热点板块： 1．算力芯片 寒武纪涨近10%，聚飞光电、杰普特20cm涨停，中天科技、烽火通信等多股涨停。 消息面上，国产算力芯片龙头海光信息公告，预计一季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润6.2亿元— 7.2亿元，同比增长22.56%—42.32%。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2月26日消息，市场全天探底回升，三大股指涨跌不一。板块方面，算力芯片股午后拉升，明阳电路、 聚飞光电、杰普特20cm涨停；电网设备板块震荡走强，北京科锐、神马股份、杭电股份等多股涨停； 商业航天概念持续走高，抚顺特钢涨停；下跌方面，影视院线板块持续调整，博纳影业领跌；房地产板 块表现低迷，华联控股领跌；创新药板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the global lithium demand is expected to reach approximately 2 million tons of LCE by 2026, driven by both power batteries and energy storage batteries. The recent reduction in export tax for domestic lithium batteries may lead to a surge in exports, tightening the supply-demand dynamics in the lithium industry [1][3]. Supply - Lithium price rebound is stimulating supply, but short-term increments are limited. In Australia, stable production from existing lithium projects is expected, but the recovery of suspended projects will take at least a quarter. In South America, new projects are progressing slower than anticipated, and there are discussions among Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile to form a "Lithium OPEC" to enhance their influence on global lithium pricing and supply chains. Zimbabwe has tightened its lithium export policies, which may impact supply in the short term [1][2]. Domestic Supply - Domestic lithium spodumene production has not yet reached large-scale output. The supply disruptions from domestic lithium mica mines remain unresolved. By mid-2025, mining licenses for "ceramic clay" will need to be changed to "lithium mine" licenses due to new regulations. The timing for resuming production at various projects remains uncertain, and there may be temporary shutdowns during this transition [2]. Demand - Domestic demand for power batteries is expected to surge, with energy storage becoming a significant marginal variable for lithium salt demand. Global lithium demand is projected to reach around 2 million tons of LCE by 2026, with energy storage battery shipments expected to reach approximately 900 GWh, a year-on-year growth of nearly 50%. Power battery demand is anticipated to recover rapidly starting in March, with an expected annual growth of around 20%. The reduction in export tax for lithium batteries may lead to preemptive demand, tightening the supply-demand balance in the lithium industry [3]. Balance Sheet - The global lithium supply and demand are expected to be balanced at around 2 million tons of LCE by 2026. If demand exceeds expectations, there could be a significant shortfall in the lithium industry. The supply of global lithium resources is expected to be low initially and high later, while lithium demand exhibits clear seasonal variations, which may lead to rapid price increases. Following several months of destocking, domestic lithium salt inventory cycles are currently less than one month, highlighting the intensifying inventory issues [4]. Related Companies - Key companies in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Salt Lake Industry, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, Huayou Cobalt, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Yahua Group, Dazhong Mining, and Guocheng Mining [4].

据中证金牛座，当地时间2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部发文称，已暂停所有原矿和锂精矿的出口，即刻生 效。记者梳理获悉，上市公司盛新锂能、中矿资源、天华新能、雅化集团等均在津巴布韦有锂矿等布 局。 华友钴业相关负责人对记者表示，此次津巴布韦的"禁令"主要是对违规出口的监管，公司的采矿证是当 地矿业部颁发的，目前还不确定具体影响有多大。 雅化集团相关负责人对记者表示："公司已经提前把津巴布韦生产的锂精矿全部发出来。最近一段时 间，当地'暂停出口'对公司的生产端不会造成影响。"该负责人进一步表示："根据文件看，未在当地取 得采矿证以及选矿资格的贸易商与代理商，已不具备出口资质。但雅化集团可以继续申请出口，需要在 出口许可流程上补充相关资料，公司已经着手推进。" 对此，中矿资源相关负责人回应称："所有中方在津巴布韦锂精矿出口全部停了，等待后续政策细则。 目前，中方企业在当地锂的深加工产品基本没有，量很小。公司有相关的产业链延伸计划考虑，但现在 不便公开。" ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求超预期，开启26-27年向上新周期 ——碳酸锂专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年2月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要 注：全文的"预计"若无特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所预测 ◆ 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2。中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨， 新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年 303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐湖新增8.4万吨（麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措）、国 内矿山6.6万吨（枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、湘源矿）、海外盐湖6.9万吨（3Q、Mariana和 CO）、澳矿的7.8万吨（泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达产）、非矿11.5万吨（中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Zimbabwean government has announced an immediate suspension of all raw material and lithium concentrate exports, which will significantly impact the global lithium supply chain and potentially drive lithium prices higher [1] Group 1: Export Regulations - Zimbabwe's export ban includes all shipments in transit and restricts exports to companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants [1] - Companies must submit a recommendation from provincial mining offices regarding processing capacity and compliance when applying for export permits [1] - Violators of the new regulations may face revocation of export licenses and mining rights [1] Group 2: Impact on Lithium Supply - According to CITIC Securities, 19% of China's lithium concentrate imports are sourced from Zimbabwe, and the country is expected to account for 12% of global lithium resource output by 2026 [1] - The export ban is anticipated to exacerbate the short-term supply shortage of lithium carbonate in China, likely leading to a significant increase in lithium prices [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (515030) is currently the largest themed ETF in the market, tracking the CSI New Energy Vehicle Index [1] - The ETF includes stocks from companies involved in lithium batteries, charging stations, and new energy vehicles, with a high weight of 79.98% in lithium battery concepts [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include industry leaders such as CATL (300750), Huayou Cobalt (603799), EVE Energy (300014), Ganfeng Lithium (002460), and Zhongmin Resources (002738) [1]