Investment Rating - Maintains "Overweight" rating [3][4] - Target price raised to 97.16 RMB (previously 80.00 RMB) [3][4] Core Views - Revenue for 2024Q1-Q3 was 4.14 billion RMB (-35.1% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million RMB (-67.86% YoY) [3] - Q3 revenue was 1.443 billion RMB (-18.09% YoY), with net profit of 211 million RMB (-59.68% YoY), meeting expectations [3] - Adjusted 2024-2026 EPS forecasts to 2.73/3.47/4.25 RMB (previously 2.94/3.59/4.50 RMB) [3] - Q3 gross margin improved to 46.32%, up 5.64 percentage points from Q2, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements in small molecule business [3] - Emerging business revenue was 745 million RMB, down 8.37% YoY, with gross margin at 19.97%, down 12.99 percentage points [3] - New orders grew over 20% YoY in 2024H1, with orders from European and American markets growing faster than overall order growth [3] - Overseas expansion: Europe's first R&D and pilot base, Sandwich Site, began operations in 2024Q3 [3] - Peptide capacity exceeds 20,000L, securing multiple late-stage clinical projects and GLP-1 peptide commercialization orders [3] Financial Performance - 2024Q1-Q3 gross margin was 43.60%, down 1.09 percentage points YoY excluding large orders [3] - 2024H1 order backlog was 970 million USD, ensuring steady growth [3] - 2024E revenue forecast at 5.958 billion RMB (-23.9% YoY), with net profit of 1.003 billion RMB (-55.8% YoY) [8] - 2025E revenue forecast at 7.059 billion RMB (+18.5% YoY), with net profit of 1.275 billion RMB (+27.1% YoY) [8] - 2026E revenue forecast at 8.412 billion RMB (+19.2% YoY), with net profit of 1.564 billion RMB (+22.7% YoY) [8] Valuation and Market Data - Current price: 82.91 RMB [4] - 52-week price range: 60.13-157.09 RMB [5] - Market capitalization: 30.488 billion RMB [5] - P/E ratio (2024E): 30.39x [8] - P/B ratio (current): 1.8x [6] - ROE (2024E): 5.6% [8] Industry and Peer Comparison - Peer comparison: Kanglong Chemical (300759.SZ) with 2024E P/E of 29.85x, Yaoming Helian (2268.HK) with 2024E P/E of 33.83x, Haoyuan Pharmaceutical (688133.SH) with 2024E P/E of 47.44x [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 20% within the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company's core business is experiencing rapid growth, with the small molecule chemical CDMO segment achieving revenue of 1.192 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting an 18.89% increase when excluding the impact of large orders [5][6]. - Emerging businesses are expected to return to growth in Q4 2024, driven by the advancement of certain macromolecule projects into late-stage clinical or commercial supply phases [5]. - The overall revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.443 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.09%, but a 12.23% increase when excluding large orders [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 211 million yuan for Q3 2024, down 59.68%, with a non-recurring net profit of 215 million yuan, down 54.02% [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 46.32%, an increase of 5.64 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to improvements in the small molecule business [6]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 908 million, 1.16 billion, and 1.494 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the impact of last year's high base from large orders [6][8]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The projected revenue for 2024 is 6 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.3% year-over-year, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [7]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at 44.2% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 46.5% by 2026 [12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 5.0% in 2024 but is expected to recover to 7.2% by 2026 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.14 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 35.14%, but a 4.48% increase when excluding large orders. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 710 million yuan, down 67.86% year-on-year [2]. - The small molecule CDMO business showed continuous improvement in gross margin, with a revenue of 3.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a 7.71% increase when excluding large orders. The gross margin was 48.89%, up 1.19 percentage points when excluding large orders [2]. - Emerging businesses faced challenges, with a revenue of 745 million yuan for the first three quarters, down 8.37% year-on-year. However, the company expects a recovery in growth in Q4 due to increased project deliveries [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 23.98%. The net profit is expected to be 1.02 billion yuan, down 54.68% [5]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 14.0% in 2025 and 2026, with net profit expected to reach 1.18 billion yuan and 1.40 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 42.98% in 2024 to 44.49% in 2026 [5]. Business Outlook - The small molecule CDMO and emerging businesses are expected to drive growth, with a focus on expanding overseas production capacity [2]. - The company has established its first R&D and pilot base in Europe, which is now operational and beginning to take orders [2]. - The peptide industry remains robust, with multiple projects entering the delivery phase, and the company has secured several clinical projects from multinational pharmaceutical companies [2].

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call was held by **Kailin**, focusing on their third-quarter performance and business outlook. The call was co-hosted by Haitong Securities and Minsheng Securities. Key Points Financial Performance - **Third Quarter Revenue**: Kailin achieved revenue of **14.13 billion** CNY, representing an **11% increase** from the second quarter and a **12.2% year-over-year increase** after excluding large orders [2][3]. - **Gross Margin**: The overall gross margin for the third quarter was **49.3%**, comparable to levels seen between 2018 and 2020. The gross margin for the first three quarters was **43.6%** [2][4]. - **Small Molecule Business**: Revenue from the small molecule segment reached **11.92 billion** CNY in Q3, with a **19% year-over-year increase** and a **23% quarter-over-quarter increase** after excluding large orders [3][4]. - **Profitability**: The company reported a profit of **7.1 billion** CNY for the first three quarters, with an overall scale economy rate of **17.2%** [2][4]. Business Segments - **Small Molecule Business**: The gross margin for small molecules improved to **40%** for the first three quarters, reaching **48.9%** after excluding large orders. The company implemented cost control measures to enhance profitability [4][5]. - **Emerging Business**: Revenue from emerging businesses was **2.45 billion** CNY, down **13.3%** year-over-year. The decline was attributed to a focus on domestic operations amid a challenging financing environment [5][6]. - **Market Expansion**: Kailin is actively expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, particularly with multinational corporations (MNCs) [2][3]. Market Dynamics - **Client Revenue**: Revenue from MNC clients grew by **11.1%** year-over-year, while revenue from small biotech companies saw a slight decline [3][4]. - **Order Trends**: The company noted a positive trend in order inquiries for Q4, indicating a robust demand environment [10][11]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: Despite concerns regarding geopolitical tensions, Kailin has not observed significant impacts on client orders or behavior [15][29]. Future Outlook - **Q4 Expectations**: The company anticipates a strong Q4 with multiple project deliveries and a focus on maintaining high capacity utilization rates [12][31]. - **Investment Plans**: Kailin plans to maintain capital expenditures between **1 to 1.1 billion** CNY for the year, with a focus on expanding production capacity for new business lines [8][30]. - **Operational Efficiency**: The company emphasized the importance of cost control and efficiency improvements to enhance profitability moving forward [9][24]. Industry Context - **Competitive Landscape**: Kailin remains confident in its competitive position within the small molecule sector, despite challenges in the domestic market. The company believes that geopolitical concerns have not significantly affected its operations [15][18]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Recent regulatory changes in China regarding large molecule production are viewed positively, potentially boosting business opportunities [33]. Additional Insights - **Capacity Utilization**: The company reported that its production facilities are operating at high capacity, with ongoing projects expected to further enhance output [12][22]. - **Emerging Market Trends**: There is a notable increase in demand for GLP-1 related projects, contributing to the growth of the emerging business segment [31][32]. This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, business segment performance, market dynamics, and future outlook for Kailin as discussed during the conference call.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.14 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 35.14% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 710 million RMB, down 67.86% [1]. - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.44 billion RMB, representing an 18.09% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of 210 million RMB, down 59.68% [1]. - Excluding large orders, the company showed signs of improvement with a 12.23% year-on-year growth in revenue for the third quarter, and a 11.21% quarter-on-quarter growth [2]. - The small molecule business generated 1.192 billion RMB in revenue in the third quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 18.89% after excluding large orders [2]. - The company has secured multiple clinical mid-to-late stage project orders for peptides from multinational corporations (MNCs) and signed commercialization orders for GLP-1 peptides with significant domestic clients [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a total revenue of 41.4 billion RMB, with a net profit of 7.1 billion RMB [1]. - The third quarter revenue was 14.4 billion RMB, with a net profit of 2.1 billion RMB [1]. - The company’s revenue growth rate for the first three quarters, excluding large orders, was 4.48% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Expenses - The decline in revenue has led to increased expense ratios, with the sales expense ratio at 4.04%, up 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, and the management expense ratio at 12.92%, up 4.13 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Development - The peptide business is progressing well, with production capacity exceeding 20,000 liters by the end of the reporting period [2]. - The emerging business segment reported a revenue of 7.45 billion RMB for the first three quarters, down 8.37% year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.033 billion RMB, 1.195 billion RMB, and 1.397 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.81, 3.25, and 3.80 RMB [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 30, 26, and 22 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2].

2024第三季度 特定机构调研演示资料 凯莱英医药集团（天津）股份有限公司 2024年10月 16.94 28.79 28.37 21.51 21.27 2021 2022 2023 2023 Q1-Q3 2024 Q1-Q3 中小制药公司收入 人民币亿元 33.43 人民币亿元 17.14 14.66 25.68 18.12 20.13 2021 2022 2023 2023 Q1-Q3 2024 Q1-Q3 +11.1% 跨国大制药公司收入 （剔除大订单） 1 凯莱英（股票代码：002821.SZ/6821.HK） 来自中小制药公司收入21.27亿元，同比下降1.1%， 免责声明 其中来自境外中小制药公司收入10.78亿元，同比下降0.03%，与去年同期基本持平 -2- 本文件不得用于公开传播，其中所包含的信息仅供与凯莱英医药集团（天津）股份有限公司（"本公司"，连同其子公司，以下合称"本集团"）有关的人士及其顾问使用。 本公司仅向有限数量的收件人提供本文件。本文件的内容未经任何司法辖区的监管机构审阅。在某些司法辖区派发本文件可能会受到法律限制，持有本文件的任何人都应了 解并且遵守该等限制。任何不遵守该等 ...

证券代码：002821 证券简称：凯莱英 凯莱英医药集团（天津）股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-006 投资者关系活动 类别 √ 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 通讯参会：海通证券、民生证券、中信证券、国盛证券、浙商 证券、平安证券、中信建投证券、兴业证券、中欧基金、汇添 富基金、鹏华基金、嘉实基金、华宝基金、招商基金、富国基 金、上海高毅资产、贝莱德基金、Goldman Sachs、Willing Capital、3W Fund、Fidelity、Morgan Stanley、Springhill Fund、RBC Global、JP Morgan、HSBC 等 100 余家机构，共计 240 余人。 时间 2024 年 10 月 30 日 8：00-9：00 地点 通讯参会 上市公司接待人 员姓名 执行董事、首席运营官 张达先生 高级副总裁兼董事会秘书 徐向科先生 投资者关系执行总监 夏璐女士 一、 公司 2024 第三季度经营情况介绍 详情请查阅附件《2024 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 94.80 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown a good trend in new orders, indicating potential marginal improvement in operations despite a decline in revenue and net profit due to high base effects from previous large orders [2][4]. - Excluding the impact of large orders, the company's revenue has shown a year-on-year growth of 4.48% in the first three quarters of 2024, with a significant increase of 12.23% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [3][4]. - The peptide business is expanding rapidly, with multiple clinical projects secured from multinational pharmaceutical companies and commercial orders signed for GLP-1 peptides [4]. Summary by Sections Trading Data - Total market capitalization is approximately 30,983.93 million CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of 27,692.31 million CNY [1]. - The stock price as of October 29, 2024, is 84.26 CNY, with a 12-month price range of 60.13 to 164.0 CNY [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.14 billion CNY and a net profit of 710 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 35.14% and 67.86%, respectively [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for the small molecule business improved to approximately 48.83%, while the emerging business's gross margin decreased to about 19.97% due to capacity ramp-up and a sluggish domestic market [6]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are 988.9 million CNY, 1.16 billion CNY, and 1.33 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -56.4%, 17.4%, and 14.8%, respectively [7][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.16 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times, leading to the target price of 94.80 CNY per share [7].

CASYMCHEM 凯莱英医药集团 Asymchem Labs. 2024年第三季度报告 ▶ www.asymchem.com.cn 股票代码 Stock Code: 002821.SZ / 6821.HK 凯莱英医药集团（天津）股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 证券代码：002821 证券简称：凯莱英 公告编号：2024-090 凯莱英医药集团（天津）股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1.董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大 遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 2.公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)声明：保证季度报告中财务信息的真实、准确、完 整。 3.第三季度报告是否经过审计 □是 否 2 凯莱英医药集团（天津）股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 一、主要财务数据 （一） 主要会计数据和财务指标 公司是否需追溯调整或重述以前年度会计数据 □是 否 | --- | --- | --- | ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 医药生物 2024 年 10 月 09 日 凯莱英 (002821) ——公司持续回购彰显信心，未来有望逐渐恢复增长 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 09 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 82.40 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 165.27/59.55 | | 市净率 | 1.8 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 2.18 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 27,081 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,258.86/10,557.81 | 投资要点： | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 44.47 | | | | | 资产负债率 % | 12.76 | | 总股本 ...