Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company focuses on low-temperature fresh milk, with a 54% year-on-year increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items in Q3 [9]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 10.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.80% [9]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.61 billion yuan, 7.09 billion yuan, and 8.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 30.24%, 26.36%, and 20.78% [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is 10,987.29 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.80% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 430.83 million yuan, reflecting a 19.27% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2023 is 26.87%, up 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is 16.85% [5]. Business Performance - The liquid milk and milk powder segments showed steady growth, with revenues of 9,755 million yuan and 790 million yuan respectively, both increasing by over 11% year-on-year [9]. - The company’s distribution channels have expanded, with a 42.74% year-on-year increase in distributor revenue in the second half of 2023 [9]. - The company has launched new products, with new product revenue accounting for 12% of total revenue in 2023 [9]. Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market share in the fresh milk segment, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth in its high-end product line [9]. - The company’s online direct sales revenue increased by 20.51% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in e-commerce channels [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 12.22 billion yuan, 13.48 billion yuan, and 14.73 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15 in 2024 to 10 in 2026, indicating potential for value appreciation [9].

公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------------------| | | | | 张宇光（分析师） | 叶松霖（分析师） | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | yesonglin@kysec.cn | | S0790520030003 | 证书编号： S0790521060001 | 2023 年公司净利率同比增 0.3pct 至 3.9%，净利率如期提升。2024Q1 公司净利率 同比增 1.0pct 至 3.43%，净利率提升主因结构升级下毛利率同比增 2.3pct 至 29.4%。2024Q1 销售费用率同比增 1.6pct、管理费用率同比降 0.5pct。展望 2024 年，预计原奶价格仍会平稳略降，公司结构持续优化、原奶成本下行下预计毛利 率可提升；非经常损益预计会有所改善，净利率仍可持续提升。 股价走势图 相关研究报告 公司信息更新报告 特别声明 幅证券 主业稳步增长，净利率持续提升 投资评级：增持（维持） 坚持鲜战略，维持"增持"评级 2024Q1 净利率提升主因毛利率提升 风险提示：宏观经济 ...

研 公 研 究 告 券 ▌ 盈利预测 ▌ 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|-------------------------|--------|--------| | 预测指标 | | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | 主营收入（百万元） | 10,987 | 12,378 | 13,712 | 15,052 | | 增长率（ %） 9.8% | | 12.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 431 | 663 | 822 | 1,008 | | 增长率（ %） 19.2% | | 53.9% | 24.0% | 22.6% | | 摊薄每股收益（元） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.95 | 1.16 | | ROE（% ） | 16.3% | 22.2% | 24.1% | 25.7% | 证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 3 孙山山：经济学硕士，6 年食品饮料卖方研究经验，全面覆盖食品饮料行业， 聚焦饮料子板块，深度研究白 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being CNY 534 million, CNY 654 million, and CNY 793 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.0%, 22.3%, and 21.3% [9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of CNY 10.987 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 431 million, representing a growth of 19.3% [9]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of CNY 2.614 billion and a net profit of CNY 90 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.66% and 46.93% respectively [9]. - The company is focusing on high-end fresh milk and specialty yogurt, with high-end fresh milk products experiencing a growth rate of 40% [9]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) business is expected to grow over 15% in 2024, with e-commerce sales increasing by over 40% [9]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 26.87%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for liquid milk was 28.76%, up by 2.7 percentage points [9]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 15.28% and 4.28% respectively in 2023, with the sales expense ratio increasing due to heightened brand promotion and media advertising [9]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 3.92%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.31 percentage points [9]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products was CNY 9.755 billion, CNY 790 million, and CNY 1.153 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.15%, 11.28%, and -0.53% [9]. - The company’s revenue by region showed significant growth in North China, with a year-on-year increase of 39.03% [9]. Future Projections - The report forecasts total revenues of CNY 11.514 billion, CNY 12.336 billion, and CNY 13.167 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.80%, 7.13%, and 6.74% [12]. - The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 0.62, CNY 0.75, and CNY 0.92 respectively [12].

[公司评级 Table_Invest] 买入 当前价格 10.05 元 合理价值 12.24 元 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-04-26 盈利预测： [Table_Finance] 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 10006 10987 11951 13428 14942 增长率（%） 11.6% 9.8% 8.8% 12.4% 11.3% EBITDA（百万元） 984 1278 1377 1592 1817 归母净利润（百万元） 361 431 530 641 758 增长率（%） 15.7% 19.3% 23.0% 21.1% 18.2% EPS（元/股） 0.42 0.50 0.61 0.74 0.88 市盈率（P/E） 31.50 22.96 16.42 13.57 11.48 ROE（%） 14.3% 16.8% 15.6% 15.2% 14.9% EV/EBITDA 15.62 10.36 8.44 6.77 5.33 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 年报点评|饮料乳 ...

[Table_Header] 公司点评●饮料乳品 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------------|-------------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_MainFinance] | | 2023A 2024E | | 2025E 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | | | 10987.29 11889.73 13265.46 14644.11 | | | 收入增长率% | | | 9.80 8.21 11.57 10.39 | | | 净利润（百万元） | | | 430.83 606.91 764.44 925.98 | | | 利润增速% | | | 19.27 40.87 25.96 21.13 | | | 毛利率% | | | 26.87 27.00 27.30 27.50 | | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [12][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with a net profit of 431 million yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year [19]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.61 billion yuan, a 3.66% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 46.93% year-on-year [19][21]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 29.4% in Q1 2024, driven by declining raw milk costs [20][21]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 10.99 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.24 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% [21]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 547 million yuan, representing a 26.9% increase compared to 2023 [21]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 27.6% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 28.2% by 2026 [21]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is focusing on expanding its fresh milk business under its "Fresh Strategy," leveraging acquisitions to create a brand matrix and nationwide distribution [12][19]. - The introduction of new products, particularly in the low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt segments, has contributed to revenue growth, with new products accounting for 12% of total sales in 2023 [28]. - The company is enhancing its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, which saw over 15% revenue growth in 2023, with e-commerce sales increasing by more than 40% [28]. Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a growing consumer preference for low-temperature fresh milk, which is expected to drive future sales growth [6][12]. - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with potential risks from market competition and food safety incidents [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of significant outperformance compared to the benchmark index over the next 3-6 months [118]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 10,987 million in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 431 million, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [2][140]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 2,527 million, a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, and a net profit of 0.9 million, representing a substantial increase of 46.9% year-on-year [140]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw milk costs, which will enhance profitability in 2024 [140]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 10,987 million - 2024E: 11,492 million (4.6% growth) - 2025E: 12,230 million (6.4% growth) - 2026E: 12,935 million (5.8% growth) [2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 431 million - 2024E: 528 million (22.7% growth) - 2025E: 651 million (23.2% growth) - 2026E: 789 million (21.1% growth) [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.50 - 2024E: 0.61 - 2025E: 0.75 - 2026E: 0.91 [2] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2024E: 16 - 2025E: 13 - 2026E: 11 [2] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2024E: 2.8 - 2025E: 2.3 - 2026E: 1.9 [2] Operational Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 25.2% in Q4 2023, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant reduction in raw milk costs [140]. - The report notes that the company is actively optimizing its product and channel structure, which is expected to drive revenue growth above industry averages [140].

新希望乳业股份有限公司 2023 年度财务决算及 2024 年度财务预算报告 一、2023 年度财务决算情况 （一）2023 年度财务报表的审计情况 新希望乳业股份有限公司 2023 年度财务报表已经毕马威华振会计师事务所 （特殊普通合伙）审计，并由审计机构出具了毕马威华振审字第 2407992 号标 准无保留意见的审计报告。 （二）主要会计数据和财务指标 1、主要会计数据 | | | | 单位：万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2023 年 | 2022【注】 | 增减（%） | | 营业收入 | 1,098,729.40 | 1,000,649.98 | 9.80 | | 营业利润 | 50,789.73 | 40,316.72 | 25.98 | | 利润总额 | 50,882.67 | 40,590.64 | 25.36 | | 归属于公司股东的净利润 | 43,082.65 | 36,122.90 | 19.27 | | 归属于公司股东的扣除非经常性损益 | 46,482.03 | 29,445.37 | 57.86 | | 的净利润 | | | | | 经 ...

新希望乳业股份有限公司 2023 年度独立董事述职报告 本人作为新希望乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的独立董事，按照《中 华人民共和国公司法》《上市公司独立董事管理办法》《公司章程》以及公司《独立 董事工作制度》等相关法律法规、规章制度的规定和要求，在 2023 年任职期间（2023 年 5 月—12 月），忠实勤勉履行职责，积极出席相关会议，认真审议董事会各项议 案，充分发挥独立董事的作用，维护公司整体利益和全体股东尤其是中小股东的合 法权益。现将本人 2023 年的履职情况汇报如下： 一、基本情况 本人杨志清，中央财政金融学院财政专业毕业，经济学学士，曾任中央财经大 学教学委员会委员，税务学院院长等职，长期从事税收理论与政策、国际税收及税 制改革研究。现任中央财经大学教授，兼任中国国际税收研究会理事、中国法学会 财税法学研究会常务理事、中国注册税务师协会理事、北京市税务学会副会长等职。 报告期内，本人任职符合《上市公司独立董事管理办法》第六条规定的独立性 要求，不存在影响独立性的情况。 二、年度履职概况 本人积极参加公司召开的董事会、股东大会及相关委员会，本着勤勉尽责的态 度，认真审阅会议议案及相关 ...