Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales growth of consumer goods has shown a marginal decline, primarily due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the diminishing effects of the "old-for-new" policy. However, with the release of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, leading to a gradual recovery in consumer demand for the food and beverage sector. The white liquor industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with a low likelihood of further demand decline. The report suggests appropriate positioning in the white liquor sector due to its relatively low valuation and stable chip structure. In the mass consumer goods sector, new consumption targets are expected to maintain high growth rates throughout the year, with a focus on new channels, new products, and new markets [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods in September 2025 increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points from August. The food and beverage sector is anticipated to gradually improve as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [4][5]. Subsector Performance - In September 2025, the retail sales growth for grain and oil products, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol was 6.3%, -0.8%, and 1.6% year-on-year, respectively. The beverage sector showed relatively weak consumption, while the tobacco and alcohol sector saw improved growth due to pre-holiday stocking and a slight relaxation of alcohol bans [4][10][12]. Quarterly Insights - In Q3 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to Q2. The food and beverage sectors experienced varying growth rates, with grain and oil products at 6.7%, beverages at 1.4%, and tobacco and alcohol at 0.8%, indicating a general softening in consumer demand [5][6]. Specific Company Insights - The white liquor sector is nearing a demand bottom, with recent policy relaxations leading to a recovery in consumption. Meanwhile, companies like Ximai Foods are accelerating the launch of new products and channels, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity and certainty in 2026 due to sustained raw material cost advantages [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the performance and valuation of the industry are approaching a double bottom, recommending to strengthen positions during the bottom cycle [3][11] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.9% from October 13 to October 17, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.1 percentage points [11][12] - Short-term demand for liquor is nearing a bottom, with business demand under pressure and slight improvements in terminal consumption [3][11] - The report emphasizes the need to observe macroeconomic trends for long-term industry outlook, with expectations of a more gradual recovery slope [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report indicates a double bottom in performance and valuation, suggesting to strengthen positions during the bottom cycle [3][11] - The food and beverage index outperformed the market, ranking third among primary sub-industries [11][12] 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 0.9%, with other liquor categories, health products, and liquor showing relative strength [12][13] - Notable individual stock performances included Kuaijishan, Miaokelando, and Guifaxiang leading in gains [12][13] 3. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with full-fat milk auction prices showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [17] - Domestic fresh milk prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year [17] 4. Liquor Industry News - Moutai 1935 saw significant year-on-year sales growth in September, indicating market resilience [40] - The report highlights the importance of observing the pricing changes of Moutai as a key internal factor [3][11] 5. Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares, with each having specific growth potential and market strategies [4]

公司股东贺州铜麦、公司实际控制人 XIE LILING、JI LI 及其一致行动 人谢世谊和谢玉菱保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整、没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一 致。 桂林西麦食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 6 月 26 日披露 了《关于公司实际控制人及其一致行动人减持计划的预披露公告》（公告编号： 2025-027）。公司股东贺州铜麦企业管理咨询中心（有限合伙）（以下简称"贺 州铜麦"）、实际控制人 XIE LILING 和 JI LI、一致行动人谢世谊和谢玉菱拟在 该公告披露日起十五个交易日后的三个月内，通过集中竞价的方式，预计分别减 持公司无限售条件流通股 351,065 股、381,000 股、500,000 股、500,000 股、500,000 股，合计减持的股份总数不超过公司股份总数的 1%。 截至本公告披露日，上述股东本次减持计划期限已届满。公司近日收到上述 股东出具的《关于股份减持计划期限届满的告知函》，现将有关情况公告如下： （一）股东减持情况 证券代码：002956 证券简称：西麦食品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates a decline in participation and investor interest in the 2025 Autumn Sugar Exhibition, reflecting a decrease in industry enthusiasm, while the liquor sector's performance during the holiday season aligns with expectations [1][2]. Liquor Industry - The number of participating liquor companies at the Autumn Sugar Exhibition has decreased, with a shift in investment focus towards the consumer end, leading to a cautious attitude among liquor distributors [2]. - The performance of high-end liquor brands remains resilient, with Moutai's price stabilizing around 1800 yuan, which has positively impacted sales during the holiday season [3]. - The overall sales during the holiday season for liquor have declined, but leading brands have shown better performance compared to the industry average, indicating a trend towards increased industry concentration [3]. Food Industry - The beverage sector has shown significant inventory reduction during the holiday period, with leading brands like Nongfu Spring expected to achieve double-digit growth [4]. - The snack sector continues to expand, particularly in discount store formats, although same-store sales have seen a slight decline [4]. - The dairy sector remains under pressure, particularly for ambient liquid milk, with a need for structural improvements [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye, as well as emerging brands like Zhenjiu Lidu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to contribute positively [5][6]. - In the food sector, recommendations include leading snack brands like Ximai Foods and beverage leaders like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, while also highlighting opportunities in the dairy sector with companies like Yili [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Views - The overall sales of liquor during the recent double festival are weak, with a year-on-year decline of 20%-30%, aligning with previous expectations. High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye performed relatively well, while lower-tier brands faced significant pressure [5] - The price stability of liquor during the double festival is noted, with slight increases observed post-festival. The report suggests monitoring price trends as e-commerce promotions begin [5] - The upcoming Sugar and Wine Conference is expected to provide marginal feedback, with the industry showing signs of bottoming out. The report emphasizes the importance of this event for potential recovery opportunities [6][7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 0.61% increase compared to the index's 1.80% rise over the past two weeks [14] - The soft drink segment saw the highest increase of 9.98%, while several companies like Zhuangyuan Pasture and Yangyuan Beverage led the gains [14] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights several key companies with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, recommending stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao for investment [25] - The report provides a detailed table of key companies, their stock prices, and projected earnings for 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for several firms [25] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that recent policy changes may improve macroeconomic expectations, potentially enhancing both valuation and performance in the food and beverage sector. The overall valuation remains low, justifying the "Recommended" rating [8][23] - Specific recommendations include high-end liquor brands and popular consumer goods, indicating a diversified investment strategy across different segments of the food and beverage industry [8][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Recommended" [2][27]. Core Views - The performance of the liquor sector during the recent Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was in line with market expectations, with an overall sales decline of 20%-30% [24][28]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sub-industries with high growth potential and lower valuations after recent corrections [27][29]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index falling by 0.29%, ranking 27th among Shenwan's primary industries [5][27]. - Sub-industries such as dairy (+1.13%), condiments (+0.74%), and meat products (+0.60%) showed positive growth, while other liquor categories saw declines [14][27]. Liquor Industry Insights - The report indicates that high-end liquor brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performed relatively well despite the overall market downturn [24][28]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on the overall financial performance of the liquor sector as it enters the third-quarter reporting period [28]. Consumer Goods Sector - The soft drink and snack sectors maintain a high level of market vitality, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Yanjinpuzi showing growth potential [29]. - The report highlights that the soft drink category is a necessity for daily outings, suggesting resilience in growth during holiday periods [29]. Key Company Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye for their stable performance in the high-end liquor market [28]. - It also recommends attention to regional leaders like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu for their resilience [28]. Price Fluctuations - Recent price movements for key liquor products include an increase in the price of Feitian Moutai, with the price per bottle rising from 1760 RMB to 1765 RMB for loose bottles and from 1780 RMB to 1795 RMB for packaged bottles [19][21]. - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.04 RMB per kilogram, while other commodity prices such as sugar and soybeans showed slight fluctuations [21][21]. Company Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage is in the process of issuing H-shares and has updated its listing application with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [24][29]. - Guangzhou Restaurant reported a 1.75% increase in mooncake sales compared to the previous year, with total sales reaching 13.98 million boxes [26]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Guizhou Moutai projected to have an EPS of 74.38 RMB in 2025, while Dongpeng Beverage is expected to reach 8.51 RMB [30][31]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook, with Moutai at 19.2 and Dongpeng at 36.6 [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decline in liquor sales during the recent double festival period, while new consumer categories maintain growth [3][11] - The food and beverage index experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, ranking 15th among 28 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points [11][13] - The liquor market is estimated to have seen an overall sales decline of 20% during the double festival, aligning with previous market expectations [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report notes that the liquor market is facing two types of differentiation: scene differentiation, where banquet scenarios are supported by demand for gatherings, and price differentiation, where high-end and cost-effective products perform well [11][12] - The beverage sector shows resilience due to its essential consumption nature, with functional drinks aligning with health trends and outdoor activities [12] Market Performance - The beverage sector outperformed the liquor sector, with soft drinks (+4.9%), dairy products (+1.8%), and health products (+1.3%) leading the performance [11][13] - Individual stocks such as Zhuangyuan Pasture, Yangyuan Beverage, and Guangming Meat Industry showed significant gains, while brands like Huanlejia and Gujing Gongjiu faced declines [11][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of whole milk powder showing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [17][21] - The price of fresh milk has decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a downward trend in domestic milk prices [17][21] Liquor Industry News - The report mentions the global launch of a new 25-degree product by Shanxi Fenjiu, highlighting the brand's commitment to quality and innovation [42] - The report also notes a significant increase in sales for the "Maopu" brand, which saw a 115% year-on-year growth in September [42] Recommended Portfolio - The report recommends stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares, emphasizing their growth potential and market positioning [4][46]

Market Overview - The leisure food sector experienced a decline of 0.39% on October 9, with Ximai Food leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the leisure food sector included: - Laiyifen (603777) with a closing price of 12.98, up 1.56% [1] - Liangpinpuzi (603719) at 12.85, up 1.18% [1] - Youyou Food (603697) at 11.51, up 1.14% [1] - Ximai Food (002956) saw a significant decline of 2.43%, closing at 19.27 [2] - Other notable decliners included: - Haoxiangni (002582) down 1.83% at 9.13 [2] - Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) down 1.55% at 15.88 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The leisure food sector experienced a net outflow of 64.63 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 32.88 million yuan [2] - The main funds' net inflow and outflow for selected stocks included: - Wanchen Group (300972) with a net inflow of 23.72 million yuan [3] - Ximai Food (002956) with a net inflow of 5.14 million yuan [3] - Laiyifen (603777) with a net inflow of 3.99 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The prepared food and food processing sectors experienced a decline at the beginning of trading on September 29, with companies like Longda Food and Weizhi Xiang dropping over 4% [1] - Other companies such as Anji Food, Huangshanghuang, and Ximai Food also saw significant declines [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on three companies in the consumer goods sector. The food and beverage index declined by 2.5%, ranking 23rd among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector (+0.9%), other food products (+0.0%), and meat products (-0.0%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor market is showing bottoming characteristics, with the consumer goods sector focusing on three companies. The liquor market's sales have improved slightly in Q3, but year-on-year declines persist due to the ongoing impact of alcohol bans on business consumption and overall consumer pressure [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 2.5%, ranking 23rd out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector, other food products, and meat products showed relatively better performance [12][13]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder in GDT auctions was $3,790 per ton, down 0.5% month-on-month but up 9.9% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, stable month-on-month but down 3.5% year-on-year [16][17]. Liquor Industry News - Moutai's terminal sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The company is deepening its reform process and emphasizing sustainable development, with an increased dividend rate [40][44]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business, with a downward trend in raw material costs expected to continue until 2027 [11]. 2. Weilong Delicious: New product launches are expected to stabilize the noodle product line, with significant growth in the konjac category [11]. 3. Bairun Co.: The cocktail business is expected to see slight growth, with a focus on new products and whiskey brand development [11][44].