Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.5 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 49.2% to 73 million [15] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 9.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of 80 million, up 54.0% [15] - The company is expected to maintain good growth across various channels in 2024, with a focus on improving cost efficiency [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the company generated revenue from various segments: frozen baking (2.21 billion), cream (650 million), fruit products (190 million), sauces (230 million), other baking materials (190 million), and warehousing and transportation services (20 million) [3] - The revenue growth rates for these segments were +23.9%, +27.7%, -8.5%, +18.1%, -8.8%, and +1145.3% respectively, with frozen baking and cream showing strong performance [3] Channel Performance - The company's revenue distribution by channel in 2023 was approximately 55% from circulation, 30% from supermarkets, and 15% from catering, tea drinks, and new retail, with growth rates of roughly flat, 50%, and close to doubling respectively [3] - In Q1 2024, circulation and catering channels grew by about 25% and over 50% respectively, while the supermarket channel experienced a decline due to high base effects from the previous year [3] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2023 was 31.4%, with a slight increase to 32.6% in Q1 2024 [4] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 2.1%, which improved to 8.4% in Q1 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.1 billion in 2024, 4.7 billion in 2025, and 5.3 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 14.7%, and 13.6% respectively [6] - The net profit is expected to rebound significantly in 2024, reaching 272 million, with a projected EPS of 1.61 [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|---------------------|--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|-------------------------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------| | [Table_MainInfo] 立高食品 \n | [Table_Title] (300973) | | | | [Table_industry ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][30]. Core Insights - The company faced pressure on profit margins in 2023 but is expected to improve efficiency and profitability in 2024. The net profit margin decreased by 2.85 percentage points to 2.09% in 2023, while the gross profit margin fell by 0.38 percentage points to 31.39% [8]. - In Q4 2023, the net profit margin dropped significantly to -9.32%, and the gross profit margin decreased to 28.19%. However, in Q1 2024, the net profit margin rebounded to 8.38%, and the gross profit margin improved to 32.59% [8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing production capacity utilization and optimizing procurement, which is expected to lead to improved gross margins in the future [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 34.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.22%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 73.03 million yuan, down 49.21% [20][27]. - For Q1 2024, total revenue was 9.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.31% increase, with a net profit of 76.77 million yuan, up 53.96% [20][27]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.61, 2.36, and 3.03 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 14, and 11 times [9]. Product and Channel Performance - In 2023, frozen baked goods accounted for 63% of revenue, growing by 24%, primarily driven by supermarket and restaurant clients. Baking ingredients contributed 36% of revenue, with a 13% increase, mainly from new cream products [28]. - In Q1 2024, the revenue from frozen baked goods remained stable at 61%, while baking ingredients increased to 39%, showing a 56% growth, particularly driven by UHT cream [28]. - The company is actively expanding new channels, with the food service and new retail channels seeing a revenue increase of over 50% [28]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a multi-channel and multi-product development strategy, focusing on large products, key clients, and major distributors [29]. - Cost control measures include strict budget management, optimizing procurement, and improving logistics and warehousing [29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [2]. Core Insights - The company aims to become a global integrated service provider in the baking industry, with a clear long-term strategy focusing on both channels and products [2]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 3.499 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 73 million yuan, a decline of 49.21% [1][11]. - The revenue growth was driven by the increase in cream sales, with significant growth in the catering channel, which nearly doubled [1]. - The company expects revenue for 2024 to reach 4.091 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.9%, and net profit attributable to shareholders to rise to 280 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 285% [2][11]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the revenue breakdown by product was as follows: frozen baked goods (2.211 billion yuan, +23.93%), cream (654 million yuan, +27.65%), fruit products (187 million yuan, -8.45%), sauces (233 million yuan, +18.12%), and other baking materials (187 million yuan, -8.75%) [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 was 305 million yuan, with expectations to increase to 563 million yuan in 2024 [21]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.66 yuan, 2.10 yuan, and 2.53 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22X, 17X, and 14X [2][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10][13]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 40.19 billion, 46.55 billion, and 52.13 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.86%, 15.83%, and 11.97% [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.03 billion, 3.66 billion, and 4.66 billion for the same years, reflecting significant growth rates of 315.31%, 20.72%, and 27.27% [10]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 20, 17, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 34.99 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.22%, while the net profit was 0.73 billion, down 49.21% year-on-year [22]. - For Q4 2023, the revenue was 9.17 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.67%, but the net profit was negative at -0.85 billion, a decline of 297.22% year-on-year [22]. - In Q1 2024, the revenue reached 9.16 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and the net profit was 0.77 billion, up 53.96% year-on-year [22]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for 2023 was 31.4%, with a slight decrease from 2022 [4]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 2.0%, down from -9.4% in Q4 2023, but improved to 8.3% in Q1 2024 [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.79, with a PE ratio of 20 [16].

证 公 研 究 报 告 券 研 ▌ 风险提示 司 2024 年 05 月 02 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

▌ 盈利预测 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 司 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [13][20]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 20.22% year-on-year in 2023, with total revenue reaching 3.499 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 49.21% year-on-year [4][7]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 916 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and a significant improvement in net profit attributable to shareholders, which increased by 53.96% [4][6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability due to cost control measures and the gradual release of the effects of organizational reforms, with expectations for stable growth in the KA supermarket channel [14][15]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3.499 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.953 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 73 million yuan in 2023 to 407 million yuan in 2026, indicating a significant recovery from the previous year's decline [7]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 31.4% in 2023 to 33.1% in 2024 and remain stable thereafter [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.43 yuan in 2023 to 2.40 yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong recovery in profitability [7]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 35.82 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6.066 billion yuan [8]. - The stock has experienced a high of 96.45 yuan and a low of 27.14 yuan over the past year, indicating significant volatility [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][23]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 earnings have significantly improved, with expectations for resilience in 2024. The high-end cream series shows strong growth, driven by a trend towards premiumization in baking cream and the potential for domestic cream to replace imported products. The coffee and tea beverage sectors are also contributing to new usage scenarios for cream [6][19]. - The company has made substantial progress in expanding its channels, particularly in the catering, tea beverage, and new retail sectors, which are expected to contribute more incrementally in 2024. Marketing reforms are ongoing, with a focus on optimizing operations across various aspects, including R&D, procurement, and logistics [6][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 3.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.22%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 73 million yuan, a decline of 49.21%. In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 916 million yuan, up 15.31%, and a net profit of 77 million yuan, an increase of 53.96% [19][24]. - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 31.4%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 13.5%, 9.6%, and 4.2%, respectively, showing increases year-on-year [20][22]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 16%. The net profit is forecasted to reach 273 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 274% [24][23]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the baking supply chain, with strong R&D capabilities and a diverse product matrix. The ongoing reforms are expected to enhance operational efficiency further [23][24]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to benefit from the growth in the high-end cream market and the expansion of its distribution channels, particularly in catering and new retail [6][19].

证券研究报告|食品饮料 投资要点: | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_ForecastSample] | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元 ) | 3499.10 | 4083.46 | 4732.66 | 5492.27 | | 增长比率 ( % ) | 20.22 | 16.70 | 15.90 | 16.05 | | 归母净利润(百万元 ) | 73.03 | 251.79 | 291.32 | 337.96 | | 增长比率 ( % ) | -49.21 | 244.79 | 15.70 | 16.01 | | 每股收益(元 ) | 0.43 | 1.49 | 1.72 | 2.00 | | 市盈率(倍 ) | 84.52 | 24.51 | 21.19 | 18.26 | | 市净率（倍） | 2.50 | 2.39 | 2.22 | 2.04 | | --- | -- ...