Core Insights - The information technology sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Arm Holdings PLC has an RSI of 27.3, with a recent stock price of $114.03, and has seen a 15% decline over the past month [7] - Crane NXT Co has an RSI of 26.7, with a recent stock price of $47.20, and has experienced a 14% drop in the last month [7] - BlackBerry Ltd has an RSI of 24, with a recent stock price of $3.77, and reported a 13% decline over the past five days [7]

Core Insights - SoftBank Group and its founder Masayoshi Son are aggressively raising funds to fulfill a massive investment commitment to OpenAI, totaling $22.5 billion, with a deadline set for the end of this year [1][5] - The urgency of this funding push highlights SoftBank's ambitions in the AI sector and reflects the significant capital pressures faced by top global dealmakers in the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure race [1][2] Fundraising Strategies - SoftBank is employing multiple strategies to secure the necessary funds, including liquidating assets, utilizing its balance sheet, and leveraging debt instruments [2] - Key asset disposals include the complete sale of its $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia and a $4.8 billion reduction in its holdings of T-Mobile US [1][2] Focus on OpenAI - Investment managers at SoftBank's Vision Fund have been instructed to shift their focus entirely to the OpenAI deal, indicating the strategic importance of this investment [3] - SoftBank plans to take its payment application PayPay public, with an anticipated IPO in the first quarter of next year, potentially raising over $20 billion [3] Leveraging Arm Holdings - A significant source of funding for SoftBank comes from margin loans secured against its holdings in Arm Holdings, with the loan capacity recently expanded by $6.5 billion, bringing the total available financing to $11.5 billion [4] - The tripling of Arm's stock price since its IPO provides SoftBank with substantial additional collateral without needing to sell this core asset [4] OpenAI's Valuation Surge - The urgency to complete the funding is driven by OpenAI's soaring valuation, which has reportedly increased to nearly $900 billion since SoftBank's initial investment agreement in April, which was based on a $300 billion valuation [5] - This new funding is critical for OpenAI as it faces rising costs associated with training and operating AI models, with CEO Sam Altman stating a goal of investing $1.4 trillion to build 30GW of computing capacity [6]

Core Viewpoint - SoftBank Group is working to finalize a $22.5 billion funding commitment to OpenAI by the end of the year through various cash-raising strategies [1] Funding Strategies - The company plans to utilize a combination of selling some investments and potentially accessing undrawn margin loans secured against its ownership in Arm Holdings [1]

Group 1: U.S. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising over 200 points and the Nasdaq increasing by nearly 1% on December 19 [2] - Major tech stocks led the rebound, with Nvidia and Oracle seeing substantial increases of 2.73% and 6.92% respectively, as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's potential for future rate cuts [3][4] - The upcoming "triple witching" event, where stock-related derivatives and index options expire, is expected to create volatility, with an estimated $7.1 trillion in nominal open interest set to expire [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that recent market fluctuations are more technical and mechanical rather than indicative of fundamental changes, emphasizing that long-term investors should not be overly concerned [5] - U.S. consumer confidence showed a lower-than-expected rebound, influenced by affordability issues, while existing home sales saw only a slight increase due to slowing price growth and declining mortgage rates [5] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rates, as indicated by New York Fed President Williams, who noted no urgent need for further adjustments [6] Group 3: Russian Monetary Policy - Russia's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16%, marking the second consecutive reduction, amid concerns over rising inflation due to upcoming tax increases [7][8] - The central bank highlighted that inflation expectations remain high, which could hinder sustainable inflation reduction, with consumer inflation expectations soaring to 13.7% in December [8] - Despite the rate cuts, high interest rates continue to pressure businesses and households, particularly in non-defense sectors like construction and transportation, which are experiencing increased losses [9][10]

Market Overview - The US stock market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 65.88 points (0.14%), the Nasdaq increasing by 313.04 points (1.38%), and the S&P 500 gaining 53.33 points (0.79%) [4] - Micron Technology's stock surged by 10.2% following strong earnings, contributing to the overall market uplift [6][11] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 [6] - Fundstrat noted that the moderate CPI data reinforces the Federal Reserve's focus on protecting the job market, suggesting that a "Fed put" is in place to support the stock market in case of economic downturns [6] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks experienced collective gains, with Tesla rising over 3%, Amazon and Facebook increasing by over 2%, and Google and Nvidia close to 2% [7] - A total of 24 leading AI companies, including OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon Web Services, have agreed to join the US government's "Genesis Mission" initiative aimed at enhancing AI applications in scientific discovery and energy projects [9] Semiconductor Industry - Micron Technology reported strong demand for its memory chips, exceeding market expectations for the first fiscal quarter [11] - The company anticipates that the total addressable market for high-bandwidth memory chips will reach $100 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 40% [13] - Other semiconductor stocks also saw gains, with TSMC rising nearly 3% and ASML increasing by over 2% [14] - Morgan Stanley predicts that semiconductor stocks will continue to be one of the best-performing sectors in the US market next year, highlighting Nvidia, Broadcom, and Astera Labs as top picks [14]

Market Overview - The stock market faced a turbulent day with significant selloff in tech and AI-related stocks, leading to declines in major indices: Nasdaq down 1.8% to 22,693.32, Dow Jones down nearly 0.5% to 47,885.97, and S&P 500 down 1.16% to 6,721.43 [1] Micron Technology Inc. - Micron Technology shares fell 2.93% to close at $225.71, with an intraday high of $237.45 and a low of $221.69; after-hours trading saw a rise of nearly 8% to $243.74 [2] - The company reported first-quarter earnings with revenue of $13.64 billion, exceeding estimates of $12.83 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $4.78, above the expected $3.95; this performance was driven by a 20.5% year-over-year revenue increase [3] Medline Inc. - Medline's stock surged 41.38% to close at $41, with trading between $34.92 and $41.25; the company is the largest supplier of medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions, valued at nearly $37 billion [3][4] - The IPO was notable as it opened at $35 from a $29 price, marking the biggest IPO since Rivian in November 2021 [4] Oracle Corporation - Oracle's stock dropped 5.40% to $178.46, with a high of $186.50 and a low of $177.07; the decline followed reports that Blue Owl Capital withdrew from a $10 billion deal for a new data center, raising concerns over Oracle's debt and AI spending [5] - The company is now seeking a new partner to replace Blue Owl for the planned facility [5] ASML Holding - ASML Holding's shares fell by 5.63% to close at $1,015.43, with an intraday high of $1,065.12 and a low of $1,010.01; after-hours trading saw a slight increase of 1.08% to $1,026.35 [6] - The CEO expressed confidence in the company's focus on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and long-term AI demand, emphasizing the importance of resolution, accuracy, and productivity for chipmakers [7] Arm Holdings Plc - Arm Holdings experienced a 5.38% decline, closing at $114.58, with a high of $121.63 and a low of $112.63; the drop was attributed to reports of China developing a prototype EUV lithography machine, which could challenge Western dominance in AI chip production [8]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower on December 17, with the Dow Jones down 0.47% at 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 down 1.16% at 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.81% at 22,693.32 points [3]. - Major technology stocks collectively declined, with Tesla dropping over 4%, Nvidia nearly 4%, and Google over 3% [2][5]. Sector Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3.78%, with significant declines in major chip stocks such as ASML, ARM, and AMD, each dropping over 5%, and Broadcom down over 4% [5]. - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.73%. Notable declines included Century Internet and NIO, both down over 3%, while Dingdong Maicai surged over 22% [6]. Commodity Market - Precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.9% to $4,371.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce [6]. - Crude oil prices also increased, with light crude oil futures for January delivery rising by $0.67 to $55.94 per barrel (up 1.21%) and Brent crude for February delivery up $0.76 to $59.68 per barrel (up 1.29%) [8]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains restrictive, with room for potential interest rate cuts in the future. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that there is no urgency for rate cuts, suggesting a gradual approach towards neutral policy rates to address slowing inflation while maintaining economic resilience [9].

Core Viewpoint - Arm Holdings plc is recognized as a trending AI stock with long-term growth potential driven by structural tailwinds such as v9 royalties, AI demand, and full-chip solutions [1][2]. Group 1: Growth Catalysts - The company is expected to benefit from rising royalties due to the transition to v9 architecture and CSS [3]. - Arm is gaining market share in the data center sector, particularly against x86 competitors [3]. - The demand for AI is significantly increasing global computing needs, which is favorable for Arm [3]. - There is an expanded licensing opportunity as Arm develops full-chip solutions [3]. - A new product opportunity is anticipated to positively impact earnings per share (EPS) [3]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - Arm shares are currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 68 times the firm's calendar 2026 estimate [2][3]. - The firm continues to view Arm as a long-term winner in the semiconductor space due to its multiple growth drivers [2][3].

Market Overview - The US stock market continued to decline on December 16, with ongoing volatility despite better-than-expected employment data for November [1] - The November non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, contrasting with a decrease of 105,000 in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [1] Employment Data Insights - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not release the October unemployment rate due to data collection issues caused by a government shutdown [1] - Analysts suggest that the weak employment report supports previous rate cuts but does not provide strong backing for significant future easing [1][1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The employment report is expected to intensify debates within the Federal Reserve, as current data is heavily influenced by disruptions [1] - The next inflation data is anticipated to be a key market driver entering the new year [1] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures fell below $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2021, with intraday declines exceeding 3% [3] - The oil market is on track for its worst annual performance in nearly seven years, with WTI down approximately 22% year-to-date [6] Gasoline Prices - Gasoline prices in the US have dropped below $3 per gallon, marking a four-year low [7] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to OPEC+ members increasing production after years of cuts and the potential for reduced geopolitical risks, particularly regarding peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia [7]

Key Takeaways ARM stock has fallen 13% over the past year, underperforming the industry's growth of 36%.ARM's dual-sided network effect ties developers and hardware makers, reinforcing its dominance in mobile CPUs.Earnings and sales are forecast to grow through fiscal 2027, but valuation remains above industry averages.Shares of Arm Holdings plc (ARM) have declined 13% over the past year against the industry’s 36% growth. The decline raises a key question: will the fall continue, or is a rebound imminent? L ...