Core Viewpoint - Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) is expected to report strong first-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share estimated at 32 cents, reflecting a 23.1% increase year-over-year, and revenues projected at approximately $259.1 million, indicating a 27.4% growth from the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ATAT's first-quarter earnings per share is 32 cents, up from 26 cents in the same quarter last year [1]. - Revenue expectations are set at nearly $259.1 million, which represents a 27.4% increase compared to the prior-year quarter [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The company's performance is likely to benefit from robust hotel network expansion, strong brand momentum, and growth in its retail business, supported by high franchisee engagement and strategic hotel rollouts [3]. - Disciplined hotel development, strong occupancy trends, and effective revenue management strategies are expected to contribute positively to performance [4]. - The retail segment, particularly the Atour PLANET brand, is anticipated to drive revenue growth, with management projecting at least a 35% year-over-year increase in retail revenues for 2025 [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions may lead to volatility in RevPAR performance, with a projected year-over-year decline in the mid- to high-single-digit range [6]. - Macroeconomic challenges such as inflation and increased marketing expenditures could negatively impact margins in the first quarter [6]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for ATAT, as the Earnings ESP stands at 0.00% and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7][8].

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, Atour Group, Luckin Coffee, and Proya, all rated as "Buy" with target price increases ranging from 12% to 37%[5] - The average market capitalization of the recommended stocks is approximately $25 billion for Geely Automobile and $19.7 billion for Xpeng Motors[5] - The average daily trading volume for these stocks varies, with Geely Automobile at $200.2 million and Xpeng Motors at $248.2 million[5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for FY24A shows Geely Automobile at 10.90, while Xpeng Motors is not available (N/A)[5] - Return on equity (ROE) for FY24A is highest for Atour Group at 47.5%, while Xpeng Motors is N/A[5] - Dividend yield for FY24A is 1.7% for Geely Automobile and 5.4% for Xpeng Motors[5] Group 3: Performance Review - The basket of 22 stocks listed in the previous report had an average return of 6.0%, compared to the MSCI China Index return of 8.1%[9] - Out of the 22 stocks, 6 outperformed the benchmark index[9]

Core Insights - 3G Capital's total market value for Q1 2025 is $348 million, a decrease of 2.48% from the previous quarter's $349 million [1][2] - The firm added 5 new stocks, increased holdings in 6 stocks, reduced holdings in 4 stocks, and completely sold out of 5 stocks during the quarter [1][2] - The top ten holdings account for 91.96% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Summary - The largest holding is Meta (META.US) with 85,000 shares valued at approximately $48.99 million, representing 14.07% of the portfolio [3][4] - Analog Devices (ADI.US) is the second largest holding with 200,000 shares valued at $40.33 million, making up 11.58% of the portfolio [3][4] - Pinduoduo (PDD.US) ranks third with 300,000 shares valued at $35.51 million, accounting for 10.20% of the portfolio [3][4] - MercadoLibre (MELI.US) is fourth with 16,000 shares valued at approximately $31.21 million, representing 8.96% of the portfolio [3][4] - At the fifth position is Atour (ATAT.US) with 1,050,000 shares valued at about $29.77 million, making up 8.55% of the portfolio [3][4] Trading Activity - The firm initiated positions in BBB Foods (TBBB.US), Intuit (INTU.US), Monday (MNDY.US), Workday (WDAY.US), and Klaviyo (KVYO.US) [5][6] - The firm completely exited positions in BILL Holdings (BILL.US), Uber (UBER.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), Sprout Social (SPT.US), and Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US) [5][6] - The top buys by percentage change in the portfolio include Carvana (CVNA), Analog Devices (ADI), Amazon (AMZN), BBB Foods (TBBB), and Intuit (INTU) [7] - The top sells by percentage change include BILL Holdings (BILL), Uber (UBER), Broadcom (AVGO), and Pinduoduo (PDD) [6][7]

Core Insights - The Chinese hotel industry is undergoing a significant efficiency revolution driven by AI technology, transforming service models and competitive logic [1][8] - AI is expected to replace a portion of hotel labor, potentially saving up to 30% in labor costs while shifting roles from repetitive tasks to high-value services [1][6] AI Implementation in Hotels - AI technologies such as smart front desk robots and AI digital managers are being integrated into hotel operations, enhancing efficiency and customer service [3][4] - Companies like Huazhu and Shoulv Rujia are leveraging AI for self-service check-ins and backend management, improving operational decision-making [3][4] Cost Reduction and Efficiency Gains - AI applications are reported to reduce labor costs by 30% and improve operational efficiency by 50% in processes like order inquiries and room assignments [6][4] - The use of AI digital managers has allowed hotel groups to automate 60% of repetitive tasks, freeing up human resources for more strategic roles [4][6] Market Trends and Challenges - The hotel industry is facing declining average daily rates (ADR) and occupancy rates (OCC), prompting a focus on cost reduction through AI [7][6] - Despite the benefits, challenges remain in AI adoption, including technology maturity and employee skill gaps [8][9] Future Outlook - The trend towards increased digital training and skill enhancement in the hotel workforce is expected to continue, with a shift towards a more technology-driven operational model [10][9] - The integration of AI is anticipated to evolve the hotel industry from a labor-intensive model to a human-machine collaborative approach [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is undergoing a new retail revolution as major hotel groups like Huazhu and Shoulv Rujia expand into new retail, selling "hotel-style" products, which is becoming a new growth driver for the industry [1][3] Group 1: New Retail Trends - Almost all hotel groups surveyed by Deep Blue Think Tank have ventured into new retail, selling hotel-branded bedding and toiletries, making new retail a standard in the hotel industry [3] - With changing consumer habits, hotel groups are targeting new retail to enhance revenue, with Huazhu Group selling products like pillows and toiletries [3] - The retail business is becoming a second growth curve for companies like Atour Group, which reported a GMV of 2.592 billion yuan in 2024, a 127.7% increase from 2023 [4] Group 2: Market Challenges - Over 80% of hotel groups mentioned "providing incremental value to consumers" and "increasing revenue" as reasons for entering new retail [6] - The hotel market is returning to rational growth after explosive growth in 2023, with many hotel groups experiencing declines in key operational metrics [6] - The competitive landscape is becoming crowded, prompting hotels to diversify into retail to boost revenue [7] Group 3: Future Directions - The future of the hotel industry will involve integrating various business models, moving beyond traditional services to create multi-functional spaces [10][11] - Hotels need to focus on differentiation and unique experiences to avoid low-level competition, as product homogeneity is a significant challenge [9] - The integration of cross-border e-commerce with new retail is being explored by hotel groups like Shoulv Rujia to enhance consumer engagement [9]

Core Insights - Traditional investment logic is being reshaped, with more investors focusing on "lightweight" brands that are small in scale, quick to open, and appealing to younger aesthetics, leading to better operational efficiency and brand potential conversion [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly attracted to lightweight hotel brands like Atour's Light Stay, which emphasizes a lower investment threshold and clear construction timelines [6] - The case of investor Ji Hao, who transformed a long-standing single hotel into a Light Stay property, exemplifies the shift towards smaller, more efficient hotel models [3] Group 2: Brand Positioning - Light Stay targets a youthful demographic with a strong emphasis on design and service quality, which allows for higher pricing power [5] - The brand's differentiation through IP collaborations and unique service offerings enhances its premium positioning and attracts repeat customers [5][6] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Light Stay's model reduces single-room construction costs and operational expenses by focusing on design, space layout, and product standards, contrasting with traditional hotel chains that prioritize large-scale and heavy assets [5] - The brand's operational strategy balances brand tone, scene content, and user perception, achieving brand premium through meticulous operations and precise positioning [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The industry fundamentals are expected to remain under pressure in 2024, with most sectors and companies still significantly affected by macroeconomic factors. However, a number of companies are emerging that are successfully navigating the challenges of consumer downgrade by upgrading from categories to quality and then to brand [1][2]. - The report highlights that companies with strong brand attributes are likely to continue outperforming as the market transitions from price-performance to quality-price comparisons [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sales in Hainan are gradually stabilizing, with the implementation of the Hainan closure policy expected to benefit the duty-free sector. The market is seeing improvements in channel and supply chain capabilities, leading to a stable outlook for profitability [2][49]. - Key companies to watch include China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [2]. 2. Tourism and Gaming - The tourism sector shows strong resilience in demand, becoming a crucial driver for domestic consumption. The recovery in inbound and outbound travel is significant, with a focus on new consumption scenarios and the silver-haired tourism market [2][3]. - Recommended companies include Jiuhua Tourism, Lingnan Holdings, and Sands China [2]. 3. Hotel Industry - The hotel sector is experiencing weak business travel demand, leading to pressure on RevPAR. However, leisure demand remains resilient, and leading companies are enhancing profitability through brand matrix validation and supply chain optimization [3][72]. - Companies to focus on include Huazhu Group, Atour, and Jinjiang Hotels [3]. 4. Restaurant Sector - Leading restaurant companies are demonstrating strong supply chain negotiation and profitability advantages. The overall supply in the restaurant industry is optimizing, with a competitive trend in price-performance [3][7]. - Notable companies include Mixue Ice City, KFC, and Haidilao [3][7]. 5. Cosmetics and Medical Aesthetics - The cosmetics sector is seeing a shift in focus towards profitability, with companies restructuring their product and channel strategies. High-growth companies are expected to achieve both revenue and profit increases [7][23]. - Key players include Juzhibio, Shumei, and Marubi [7][23]. 6. General Retail - The retail sector is undergoing digital upgrades and operational adjustments, with a focus on essential demand and cash flow stability. Companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Multi-Point Intelligence are recommended [8][30]. - The report also highlights the ongoing challenges in the jewelry sector due to rising gold prices [8][30]. 7. Overall Market Performance - The consumer services sector is expected to face challenges, with a projected performance of -8.70% in 2024. However, the beauty and personal care sector is anticipated to recover with a growth of +8.15% in 2025 [11][19].

Core Viewpoint - Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited will report its unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2025 on May 22, 2025, before U.S. markets open [1]. Group 1: Financial Reporting - The financial results announcement is scheduled for May 22, 2025, before U.S. markets open [1]. - A conference call will be held at 7:00 AM U.S. Eastern time on the same day [1]. Group 2: Conference Call Details - A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the Company's investor relations website [2]. - Participants can pre-register for the conference call via a provided link to receive dial-in numbers and a personal PIN [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited is a leading hospitality and lifestyle company in China, recognized for its distinct portfolio of lifestyle hotel brands [3]. - The company is the leading upper midscale hotel chain in China and the first Chinese hotel chain to develop scenario-based retail business [3]. - Atour is focused on innovation within China's hospitality industry and aims to build new lifestyle brands around hotel offerings [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The tourism volume is increasing while prices remain stable, with an extended travel radius. The focus is on policy support and advancements in AI applications [3] Summary by Sections Market Review - In April, the social service sector outperformed the benchmark by 1.42 percentage points, with strong performance from tourism and education stocks. The A-share scenic spots and leading education stocks led the gains, while Hong Kong stocks in the supply chain and tea beverage sectors also performed well [3][4][6] May Day Holiday Summary - Domestic spending during the holiday increased by 8.0%, with travel willingness remaining high and an extended travel radius. A total of 314 million domestic trips were made, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The average spending per person increased by 1.5%, recovering to 90% of the 2019 level [3][9] Sub-Industries - **Inbound and Outbound Travel**: Inbound travel increased by 28.7% during the holiday, with significant growth in travelers from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and foreign visitors. The number of inbound foreign visitors under visa-free policies grew by 72.7% [3][21] - **Hotel Industry**: The hotel industry saw a REVPAR of 192 yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year, with occupancy rates and average daily rates also increasing. High-star hotels in county areas outperformed the overall industry [24][22] - **Scenic Spots**: Many scenic spots experienced significant visitor growth, aided by favorable weather and local government promotional activities. For example, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism received 51.79% more visitors compared to last year [25][28] - **Dining**: Key monitored dining enterprises saw sales increase by 8.7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [29][30] - **Duty-Free Sales**: Duty-free shopping during the holiday saw a decline of 7% in sales, but the average spending per person remained stable [41][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from policy support and marginal improvements, including Tongcheng Travel, Xueda Education, Jiuhua Tourism, and others. Mid-term recommendations include China Duty Free, Meituan, Huazhu Group, and others [3][42]

Core Insights - The report highlights that tourism volume is increasing while prices remain stable, with a focus on policy support and advancements in AI applications within the sector [3][9] - The domestic travel market saw 314 million trips during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% [9][21] - The report suggests that the tourism trend will continue to improve due to consumer experience demands and favorable industry policies, recommending investments in leading companies benefiting from these trends [3][42] Market Review - In April, the consumer services sector outperformed the benchmark by 1.42 percentage points, with strong performances from tourism and education stocks [4][6] - The May Day holiday saw significant gains in the education sector and travel-related stocks, with notable performances from companies involved in AI-enhanced education [4][6] Sub-industry Analysis - **Inbound and Outbound Travel**: Inbound travel saw a 28.7% increase in visitor numbers during the May Day holiday, with significant growth in travelers from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [16][21] - **Hotel Industry**: The hotel sector experienced a 11.5% increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) during the holiday, with occupancy rates and average daily rates also rising [24][22] - **Scenic Areas**: Major scenic spots reported strong visitor numbers, with some locations seeing over 50% growth compared to the previous year, aided by favorable weather and local government initiatives [25][28] - **Dining Sector**: Key monitored dining enterprises reported an 8.7% increase in sales during the holiday, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [29][30] - **Duty-Free Sales**: Duty-free shopping during the holiday saw a decline of 7% in sales, although the average transaction value remained stable [35][41] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies that are expected to benefit from policy support and improving consumer sentiment, including Tongcheng Travel, Xueda Education, Jiuhua Tourism, and others [3][42]