Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve, but later declined as markets deemed Powell's stance insufficiently hawkish [1] - Spot gold prices rose for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-month high of over $4,330 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and increased risk aversion [1] - Silver prices doubled since January, with the World Silver Association predicting a supply deficit of approximately 117 million ounces in 2025, leading analysts to forecast silver prices could exceed $100 next year [1] - Non-USD currencies strengthened against the dollar, with expectations that several central banks are nearing the end of their easing cycles and may soon raise rates [1] - International oil prices showed a weak trend, influenced by India's oil purchases from Russia, Iraq's production recovery, and concerns over US actions against Venezuelan oil shipments [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market showed overall strength but with significant internal structural divergence, particularly influenced by the performance of bank stocks and cyclical sectors [2] Investment Bank Insights - Predictions from various investment banks suggest that the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be the last under Powell's leadership, with future easing dependent on labor market conditions [5] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast a decline in the dollar index by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 due to ongoing rate cuts and policy divergence among central banks [5] Major Events - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% and initiated a short-term Treasury bond purchase plan, with a significant focus on maintaining adequate reserve supplies [6] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point increase, marking the highest borrowing cost since 1995 [9] - Other central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia, are also anticipated to raise rates in the coming years, contrasting with the Fed's potential continued easing [11] Geopolitical Developments - The US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, marking a significant escalation in its sanctions against Venezuela, which the Venezuelan government condemned as "piracy" [14][15] - Ongoing negotiations regarding a peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict have revealed significant disagreements, particularly concerning territorial and security arrangements [12][13] Corporate Developments - SpaceX plans to go public in 2026, with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, potentially raising around $40 billion [17][18] - Meta Platforms is shifting its strategy from open-source to closed-source AI models, with significant investments planned for AI development [21] - A bidding war has erupted between Netflix and Paramount over Warner Bros. Discovery, with Paramount making a cash offer significantly higher than Netflix's proposal [22][23] - OpenAI launched its latest AI model, GPT-5.2, and plans to end its "red code" alert in January, indicating a surge in enterprise AI applications [24]

Group 1: Lululemon and Costco - Lululemon announced the departure of CEO Calvin McDonald, effective end of January, with interim leadership in place while searching for a permanent successor [1] - Lululemon reported better-than-expected earnings for Q3, but has been underperforming for over a year, with shares up more than 9% following the earnings report [2] - Costco exceeded Wall Street forecasts for its first quarter, driven by e-commerce growth, with Black Friday marking a record-breaking day for its digital business [2] Group 2: Disney and OpenAI - Disney made a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI, allowing users on OpenAI's Sora platform to create content featuring Disney's copyrighted material, including over 200 characters [3][4] - Disney CEO Bob Iger stated that the deal provides a pathway into AI and helps reach younger consumers, while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman mentioned there will be restrictions on the use of Disney characters in Sora videos [4] Group 3: Fiber Market Trends - There is a growing consumer focus on fiber, with 22% of shoppers listing high fiber content as a top-three factor when shopping, up from 17% four years ago [9] - Companies like Coca-Cola and Nestlé are launching fiber-focused products, and PepsiCo plans to introduce high-fiber versions of Smartfood and SunChips next year [9]

Group 1 - U.S. stock futures showed mixed results, with Dow futures gaining approximately 100 points on Friday [1] - Broadcom Inc reported a significant 74% increase in AI sales, achieving record revenue in this segment, but shares fell sharply by 5% to $386.28 in pre-market trading due to disappointing guidance on gross margins and a higher tax rate for fiscal 2026 [1][2] - Other companies experiencing declines in pre-market trading include Beasley Broadcast Group Inc, which dropped 12.2% to $7.76, and CapsoVision, Inc., which fell 9% to $13.13 after a previous gain [3] Group 2 - Fermi Inc. saw a decrease of 6.6% to $14.25, while LightPath Technologies Inc dipped 6.1% to $8.57 following a proposed public offering of common stock [3] - Netskope, Inc. reported a 5.7% decline to $22.17 after announcing third-quarter results and projecting an adjusted loss for FY25 [3] - Vale SA's shares fell 3.6% to $12.81, despite an upgrade from RBC Capital analyst Marina Calero, who raised the price target from $11 to $14.2 [3]

Group 1: Broadcom and AI Trade - Broadcom is facing margin concerns after a strong Q4 performance, with expectations of a 100 basis points sequential decline in Q1 gross margin due to increased AI revenue share [4] - The company has a significant backlog of $73 billion in AI product orders scheduled over the next six quarters, but this includes lower-margin system sales [5] - Broadcom's market capitalization has surpassed that of Meta and Tesla, highlighting its importance in the AI sector following a 78% year-to-date rally [3] Group 2: Cannabis Industry - Cannabis producer stocks are rising on reports that President Trump may advocate for reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, which would recognize its medical applications [6][7] - A call was held involving Trump and several cannabis industry executives to discuss the reclassification proposal, although no final decision has been made [7] Group 3: Anheuser-Busch InBev - Anheuser-Busch InBev plans to close its Merrimack, N.H. brewery by early 2026 as part of a modernization effort, aligning with closures at other sites [8][9] - The company holds a leading position in the U.S. beer market with approximately 33% market share, with Michelob Ultra being the top-selling beer by volume [10]

Group 1: Broadcom and AI Trade - Broadcom is facing margin concerns after a strong Q4 performance, with expectations of a 100 basis points sequential decline in Q1 gross margin due to increased AI revenue share [4] - The company has a significant backlog of $73 billion in AI product orders scheduled over the next six quarters, but this includes lower-margin system sales [5] - Broadcom's market capitalization has surpassed that of Meta and Tesla, highlighting its importance in the AI sector [3] Group 2: Cannabis Industry - Cannabis producer stocks are rising on reports that President Trump may advocate for reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, which would recognize its medical applications [6][7] - A call was held involving Trump and several cannabis industry executives to discuss the reclassification proposal, although no final decision has been made [7] Group 3: Anheuser-Busch InBev - Anheuser-Busch InBev plans to close its Merrimack, N.H. brewery by early 2026 as part of a modernization effort, aligning with closures at other sites [8][9] - The company holds a leading position in the U.S. beer market with approximately 33% market share, with Michelob Ultra being the top-selling beer by volume [10]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures up by 0.14%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures down by 0.61% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.25%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.35% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.24% to $57.46 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.29% to $61.10 per barrel [3][4] AI Regulation and Economic Policy - President Trump signed an executive order aimed at limiting state-level regulations on artificial intelligence (AI), promoting a federal framework to maintain US leadership in the AI sector [5] - The executive order directs the establishment of an "AI litigation task force" to challenge state laws that conflict with the administration's vision for light regulation [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Internal dissent within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts has become pronounced, with Chairman Powell downplaying opposition to a recent 25 basis point cut [6][7] - Concerns about employment data being systematically overestimated may lead to continued dovish monetary policy into 2026, as the Fed prioritizes labor market stability [7] Corporate Earnings and Market Reactions - Broadcom (AVGO) reported Q4 sales of $18 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, but saw its stock drop in after-hours trading due to slightly disappointing AI order backlog [10] - Costco (COST) exceeded Q1 revenue expectations with $67.31 billion, a 6.4% increase, but faced concerns over slowing membership renewal rates and high valuations [11] - Coinbase (COIN) plans to launch tokenized stocks and prediction markets, indicating a move into trending financial products [12] - Netflix (NFLX) experienced a significant market cap drop of $40 billion, prompting a buying surge among retail investors [12] - Apple (AAPL) faced a setback in its legal battle with Epic Games, but gained a chance to defend its commission structure on developer transactions [13] Technological Partnerships - CoreWeave announced a partnership with Runway to enhance its video AI engine using NVIDIA's GB300 chip, indicating a focus on advanced AI capabilities [14] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled, which may influence market sentiment and monetary policy outlook [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The order backlog of $73 billion is seen as bullish for the company, with potential for further upside despite some investor skepticism [1][3]. Order Backlog and Future Projections - The annualized backlog suggests nearly $50 billion for the next year, exceeding the sell-side consensus of $38 billion [2][3]. - The backlog is considered a minimum, indicating potential for further increases in the coming months [3]. AI Networking and Customer Orders - AI networking is highlighted as a significant growth theme, with expectations of around $13 billion from this segment next year, surpassing most analysts' estimates [3][4]. - The company has secured additional orders from its fourth customer, Anthropic, and a potential fifth unnamed customer, speculated to be Microsoft, which could represent a substantial order [5][6]. Supply Chain and Production Capacity - Positive supply chain developments from TSMC have contributed to bullish sentiment, with significant upward revisions in TSMC's order capacity noted [7]. Competitive Landscape and Market Position - Concerns exist regarding customer tooling, where clients may develop their own chips, potentially impacting Broadcom [7]. - Despite competition from MediaTek's TPU project with Google, Broadcom is expected to ship over 3 million units next year, significantly outpacing MediaTek's projected couple hundred thousand units [9]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Broadcom's valuation is approximately 45-46 times forward earnings, which is a premium compared to Nvidia, leading to discussions about investor reactions to valuation post-earnings report [11][12]. - The earnings outlook suggests that valuations may appear less expensive in the future as earnings are expected to rise, and Broadcom's customer profile may justify a higher multiple compared to Nvidia [12][13][14].

Some questions about that order backlog at 73 billion. Also, Hawk Tan not giving a lot of clarity about the guidance moving forward in the near term, but you actually think that that according to your most recent note, you think that backlog number is very bullish for the company and you see more upside. Explain the thesis that you're seeing when a lot of other investors seem to be selling the stock.>> Sure. I I think if you look at the backlog that was through uh if you annualize it, that's basically almos ...

Broadcom posted better-than-expected earnings on AI demand, and said it sees that momentum continuing in the current quarter. https://t.co/Hv2qGRSpfj ...

It's 5AM in New York City. Good morning. I'm Vonnie Quinn with your Bloomberg Brief.Here's what you need to know. Stocks hitting records even as tech caution continues. That rotation trade ongoing with cyclicals getting a boost from the fed's dovish course.Meantime, Broadcom disappoints. Investors look for a bigger payoff. Plus, President Trump signals U.S. help with Ukraine security as President Zelensky floats a referendum on handing over territory to Russia.So let's take a look at those markets then. Fut ...