交易员从未如此害怕周五，因特朗普酷爱在周末搞政策突袭，华尔街新潜规则：周五不调仓，周一泪两 行！ 对于Impax资产管理公司的投资组合经理Tony Trzcinka来说，周五曾经是清闲的一天，但现在却是一周 中最忙碌的时候。 这一天本该是思考长期趋势的时候，现在却变成了为投资组合做好准备的关键时刻，皆因特朗普习惯性 地在周末发布影响市场的消息。 根据巴克莱银行（Barclays Plc）的分析，对周五投资组合调整的需求足以使周五交易高等级公司债券 的成本比其他时间高出31%。 Impax公司的Trzcinka说："我们确实注意到周五的市场活动更多，你不知道周末会发生什么。"他监管着 约30亿美元的资产。 密尔沃基Allspring Global Investments公司的高级固定收益交易员Mark Clegg说，贝森特的举动只是最新 的一课，说明在周末之前降低投资组合风险的重要性。 他说："没有人愿意在市场发生巨大变化后，在周一上午进场试图纠正错误。"他利用周五来"摆脱任何 多余的风险"。 对于Trzcinka来说，准备工作包括卖出信贷和买入国债，或者转向更高质量的债券以管理风险。 在公司债券市场，电子交易 ...

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citigroup, have delayed their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to December, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment regarding monetary policy adjustments [3][8] - The latest interest rate swap contracts indicate that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates by approximately 55 basis points this year, down from previous expectations of 75 basis points, showcasing a cautious market outlook on economic conditions [4][8] Group 2 - The easing of trade tensions is expected to boost economic growth by enhancing business confidence and promoting investment and consumption, which has reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts [5][8] - Concerns remain regarding inflationary pressures due to tariff policies, as indicated by Federal Reserve Governor Kugler, suggesting that even with improved trade relations, inflation could rise and impact the Fed's decision-making on rate cuts [6][7][8]

Economic Outlook - Recent economic dynamics in the US, including milder inflation data and easing US-China trade tensions, are alleviating concerns about severe impacts on households and businesses [1][3] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Barclays have adjusted their economic forecasts following a recent US-China trade agreement, which includes a reduction in punitive tariffs [3] Inflation Data - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, marking the smallest increase in over four years, which supports market expectations for gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.8%, with prices of goods like clothing and vehicles remaining stable or declining, contrary to market expectations [6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained its short-term borrowing costs between 4.25% and 4.50%, with no immediate signs of economic collapse observed [5][6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with traders now anticipating only two rate cuts within the year, potentially starting in September rather than July [3][6] Trade Policy Impact - The recent US-China trade agreement has significantly influenced market confidence, leading to a reassessment of recession risks and economic forecasts [3] - Despite the easing of some tariffs, the overall tariff levels remain historically high, and the final shape of trade policies is still uncertain, which complicates economic predictions [6]

Market Overview - Stocks surged on Monday, with the Nasdaq entering a new bull market following the U.S. and China agreeing to de-escalate the tariff war [1] - The S&P 500 turned positive for the year due to continued buying on Tuesday [1] - The recent market rebound emphasizes the importance of maintaining exposure to the stock market [1] Economic Factors - Lower inflation and easing trade war tensions have increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in June [2] - Strong corporate earnings, particularly from big tech and other key industries, are contributing to the positive market sentiment [2] Stock Screening Strategy - A stock screening method has been developed to identify stocks with strong upward earnings revisions, specifically those with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [3][4] - The screening process focuses on stocks trading within 20% of their 52-week highs and incorporates metrics like the PEG ratio and Price to Sales ratio to ensure value [5][8] Barclays Financial Performance - Barclays (BCS) stock has increased by 120% over the past two years, significantly outperforming the Financial Sector and the S&P 500 [6] - The stock has experienced a 28% year-to-date surge, reaching 10-year highs, yet it still trades 18% below its average Zacks price target [7] - Barclays reported 8% revenue growth last year, with expectations of 11% higher sales in 2025 and 5% stronger revenue next year [10] - The company achieved 30% GAAP earnings growth last year, with projected adjusted earnings growth of 22% in 2025 and 2026 [11]

金十整理：中美会谈后，美国CPI前，投行最新美联储降息预测 1. 高盛：推后美联储降息预期至12月（此前预期为7月）， 下调美国衰退可能性至35%。 2. 摩根大通：预计美联储将在12月降息，此前预期为9月。美国经济衰退的风险现已降至50%以下。 3. 花旗：将下一次美联储降息的预测时间从六月推迟至七月，美联储现在可以更舒适地保持耐心。 4. 巴克莱：预计美联储将在12月降息，此前预期为7月。预计美联储将在2026年3月、6月及9月均降息25 个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan is seen as a positive signal for the markets of both countries, potentially leading to a rebound in risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The report from Barclays indicates that if both parties adhere to the ceasefire, a relief rebound in risk assets for India and Pakistan is expected [1] - Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign exchange and emerging markets strategy, noted that the ceasefire could alleviate the depreciation pressure on the Indian Rupee and reduce market volatility [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - A technical analysis suggests that if the USD/INR exchange rate breaks below the 200-day moving average support level of approximately 85.03, it would be a positive signal [1] - The resistance level for the USD/INR is anticipated to be around 86.06 [1]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index experienced significant volatility, starting the year strong before dropping nearly 20% due to tariff concerns, but has since recovered most losses after a 90-day tariff pause was announced [1][2] Barclays - Barclays shares have risen nearly 23% this year and 54% over the past year, despite European banks facing challenges such as low interest rates and weak GDP growth [3][5] - The bank generated a 14% return on tangible equity (ROTE) in Q1 2025, up from 12.3% a year prior, attributed to strong performance in investment banking and wealth management [5][6] - Management anticipates an 11% ROTE in 2025, with capital levels elevated for potential share repurchases and a current dividend yield of approximately 2.7% [7] Deutsche Bank - Deutsche Bank shares have increased by 56% this year, overcoming economic challenges and regulatory issues related to anti-money-laundering infractions [9][10] - The bank has made financial progress, achieving an 11.9% ROTE in Q1 2025, up from 7.4% in Q1 2024, with a compound annual revenue growth rate of 6.1% since 2021 [11] - Management plans to spend €750 million ($842 million) on share repurchases, contributing to a total distribution of €2.1 billion in the quarter, with expectations to exceed an annual €8 billion distribution target [13]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays indicates that the Japanese government bond market is likely to trade within a range for the time being, with expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan taking time to materialize [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market's anticipation of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may require more certainty regarding US-Japan trade negotiations and US policies before it can recover [1] - The attractiveness of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield from a risk-adjusted spread perspective is expected to support range trading [1] Group 2: Bond Yield Dynamics - Short-term bond yields may have upward potential if the Bank of Japan raises rates before January 2026 [1] - Short- and medium-term bonds are likely to remain in a range for some time, depending on the outcomes of trade policies [1]

但巴克莱银行发布的另一项衡量整体消费者支出的数据则呈现出较为悲观的态势。数据显示，3月份英 国消费者支出较去年同期增长0.5%，低于2月份1.0%的增幅，且低于通胀率。然而，该数据并未考虑 2024年和2025年复活节假期在不同的月份出现。 温暖的天气有助于园艺中心和特色食品饮料商店的销售，但超市销售额下降了2.6%。巴克莱银行首席 英国经济学家杰克·梅宁（Jack Meaning）表示，消费者信心下降凸显了未来几个月英国消费者支出回落 的风险。"我们预计，英国消费者支出将在2025年中期保持疲软，可能要到2026年，随着利率下降开始 产生影响且不确定性开始回归正常，支出才会回升。" （原标题：面临美国关税冲击，英国消费者3月份支出仍然增加） 英路透社 4 月 15 日消息，周二公布的数据显示，尽管美国总统特朗普宣布加征关税的消息让全球经济 陷入担忧，但英国消费者三月份的支出仍有所增加。 英国零售商协会（BRC）表示，其会员商店（主要是大型零售连锁店）3月份销售额同比增长1.1%，与 2月份的增幅持平，如果不是今年的复活节假期落在4月，3月的消费增幅可能会更大。BRC首席执行官 海伦·迪金森（Helen Di ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the outlook for Emerging Markets (EM) economies and assets, highlighting uncertainties primarily related to US tariffs and their impact on investor appetite for risk [1][6][50]. Core Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: The appetite for beta risk among investors remains subdued due to ongoing uncertainties, particularly from US trade policies [1][6]. - **EM Credit Performance**: April saw significant volatility in EM credit spreads, but the Bloomberg EM USD sovereign index delivered small positive total returns of approximately 0.2% [9][11]. - **Mexico's Economic Situation**: Mexico's Q1 GDP growth was 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, narrowly avoiding a technical recession, with mixed sector performance [27][51]. The economic momentum is negatively impacted by tariff uncertainties [27][32]. - **Inflation Trends**: Headline inflation in Mexico is expected to decline below 3% by mid-year, driven by base effects, while core goods inflation shows signs of rebound [32][33]. - **Central Bank Policies**: Banxico is expected to cut rates to around 7.25%, with markets likely pricing terminals closer to 6.50% as growth risks intensify [42][78]. Investment Recommendations - **Colombia Credit Trade**: A recommendation to switch from Colombia 2031s to Colombia 2036s due to an abnormally steep 5/10s spread curve caused by recent supply issues [70][73]. - **Bolivia Bonds**: A recommendation to sell Bolivia 2028s due to deepening economic crises, including inflation and political instability [71][73]. - **EM Rates**: Continued recommendation to receive 3y TIIE-F, anticipating potential spread compression versus the US [77][78]. Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as those between India and Pakistan, could impact market sentiment and capital flows [67][68]. - **Global Economic Outlook**: The overall global economic outlook is deteriorating, with EM economies facing challenges from US trade policy uncertainties [50][52][54]. - **Rating Agency Actions**: The trajectory of EM ratings has become balanced, with both upgrades and downgrades occurring, indicating a cautious outlook from rating agencies [17][24]. Conclusion - The document emphasizes the need for differentiation in investment strategies within EM markets, focusing on idiosyncratic opportunities while navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment [22][50].