Core Viewpoint - Citigroup strategists recommend betting on poor long-term U.S. Treasury performance due to what they describe as "expensive" U.S. fiscal risks [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Predictions - Strategists suggest preparing for an expansion in the yield spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries, raising the interest rate target from the current 40 basis points to 90 basis points [1] - They anticipate a significant steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The report highlights a shift from tariffs to fiscal narratives, emphasizing concerns over the large budget deficit resulting from aggressive tax cuts proposed by the Trump administration [1] - The expectation is that the average budget deficit will reach 6% to 7% of GDP by 2034, with public debt as a percentage of GDP increasing by 20% to 118% [1] Group 3: Debt Supply Impact - Strategists predict that for every 1% increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise by up to 20 basis points [2] - They caution that these calculations are "highly unstable" [2]

欧洲股市周五集体收涨，德国DAX指数涨0.63%，报23499.32点；法国CAC40指数涨0.64%，报7743.75 点；英国富时100指数涨0.27%，报8554.80点。本周，欧股涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨1.79%，法国 CAC40指数跌0.34%，英国富时100指数跌0.48%。 美股大型科技股多数收涨，特斯拉涨4.73%，苹果涨0.53%，亚马逊涨0.51%，微软涨0.13%，英伟达跌 0.61%，脸书跌0.92%，谷歌跌0.99%。 美股银行股涨跌不一，摩根大通跌0.16%，高盛涨0.21%，花旗跌0.31%，摩根士丹利跌0.15%，美国银 行涨0.47%，富国银行跌0.64%。 （原标题：美股三大股指涨跌不一！国际油价走强） 随着美国和英国达成贸易协议，投资者希望更多贸易协议达成。 在此背景下，美国三大股指多数收跌，道琼斯工业指数跌0.29%，标普500指数跌0.07%，纳斯达克指数 微涨。本周以来，标普500指数累计下跌约0.5%，纳斯达克指数跌幅约为0.3%，道琼斯工业指数则下跌 近0.2%。 欧洲股市方面，当地时间，5月9日，德国DAX指数涨0.63%，法国CAC40指数涨0.64%， ...

Financial Performance - Citigroup reported net income of $4.1 billion, or $1.96 per share, representing a 21% increase compared to $3.4 billion, or $1.58 per share in the prior-year period[28]. - Revenues for the first quarter of 2025 were $21.6 billion, a 3% increase from the prior-year period, with no divestiture-related impacts in the current quarter[30]. - Operating expenses decreased by 5% to $13.4 billion, including divestiture-related impacts of $34 million and an FDIC special assessment of $20 million[32]. - Citigroup returned $2.8 billion to common shareholders through dividends of $1.1 billion and share repurchases of $1.75 billion[36]. - Income from continuing operations before income taxes grew by 20% to $5,448 million, leading to a net income of $4,064 million, up 21% from $3,371 million[76]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $1.6 billion, a 7% increase from $1.49 billion in Q1 2024, driven by higher revenues and lower expenses[96]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $543 million, a 4% increase from $524 million in Q1 2024, driven by higher revenues and lower expenses[130]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $284 million, a 62% increase from $175 million in Q1 2024, driven by higher revenues and offset by increased credit costs[141]. Revenue Growth - Average loans increased by 2% to $691 billion, driven by growth in Retail Banking and Branded Cards in U.S. Personal Banking (USPB)[30]. - Services net income reached $1.6 billion, a 7% increase from the prior year, with revenues of $4.9 billion up 3% driven by Treasury and Trade Solutions[41]. - Markets net income increased by 27% to $1.8 billion, with revenues of $6.0 billion up 12%, driven by an 8% increase in Fixed Income Markets and a 23% increase in Equity Markets[45][46]. - Banking revenues increased by 12% to $2.0 billion, with Investment Banking revenues up 12% and Advisory fees soaring by 84%[49]. - Wealth revenues surged by 24% to $2.1 billion, with net interest income increasing by 30% to $1.3 billion[53]. - U.S. Personal Banking (USPB) net income rose by 115% to $745 million, with revenues of $5.2 billion up 2%[56][57]. - Total revenues increased by 3% to $4.889 billion, with net interest income rising 5% to $3.498 billion, while non-interest revenue decreased by 4% to $1.391 billion[97][98]. - Total revenues increased by 12% to $1.952 billion, compared to $1.736 billion in the prior year, reflecting higher Investment Banking revenues and a gain on loan hedges[131]. - Total revenues increased by 24% to $2,096 million in Q1 2025, compared to $1,687 million in Q1 2024, with net interest income rising 30%[142]. Credit and Provisions - Total provisions for credit losses were $2.7 billion, an increase from $2.4 billion in the prior-year period, driven by higher net credit losses in card portfolios[33]. - Net credit losses increased by 7% to $2.5 billion, with consumer net credit losses rising by 6% to $2.3 billion[34]. - Provisions for credit losses were $51 million, down from $64 million in the prior-year period, reflecting a lower net ACL build on loans[103]. - Provisions for credit losses were $214 million, compared to a benefit of $129 million in the prior year, driven by a net ACL build of $180 million[134]. - Provisions for credit losses increased to $359 million from $186 million in the prior-year period, reflecting a net ACL build due to macroeconomic uncertainties[179]. Capital and Ratios - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital ratio was 13.4% as of March 31, 2025, approximately 130 basis points above the required regulatory minimum[36]. - Citi's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital ratio was 13.4% as of March 31, 2025, down from 13.6% as of December 31, 2024, exceeding the regulatory requirement of 12.1%[185]. - The CET1 Capital under the Advanced Approaches was 11.9% as of March 31, 2025, compared to 12.1% as of December 31, 2024, with a required regulatory ratio of 10.5%[188]. - Citi's CET1 Capital amounted to $155.8 billion as of March 31, 2025, compared to $155.4 billion as of December 31, 2024[193]. - The Total Capital under the Standardized Approach was $209.9 billion as of March 31, 2025, up from $205.8 billion as of December 31, 2024[193]. - The Tier 1 Capital ratio under the Standardized Approach was 13.4% as of March 31, 2025, compared to 13.6% as of December 31, 2024[190]. - Citi's leverage ratio was 7.08% as of March 31, 2025, slightly down from 7.17% as of December 31, 2024[190]. - Citi remains "well capitalized" under current federal bank regulatory definitions as of March 31, 2025[192]. Transformation and Strategy - Citigroup continued to advance its transformation strategy, including investments to modernize infrastructure and prepare for an IPO of its consumer banking operations in Mexico[36]. - Citigroup's transformation efforts include retiring or replacing 130 applications and expanding Generative AI tool adoption, with 385,000 utilizations logged[74]. - The company is focusing on enhancing data quality and regulatory compliance through its multiyear transformation initiatives[71]. Deposits and Loans - Average deposits were approximately $1.3 trillion, down 2% from the prior-year period, primarily due to lower deposits in All Other, USPB, Markets, and Wealth[31]. - Citigroup's total deposits increased by 1% to $1,316,410 million, while long-term debt rose by 4% to $295,684 million[79]. - Average deposits decreased by 2% to $89 billion, influenced by a shift to higher-yielding investments and client transfers to Citigold[144]. - Mexico Consumer/SBMM (Banamex) had end-of-period loans of $24.1 billion and deposits of $35.3 billion, reflecting a 7% and 14% decrease, respectively[174]. - Asia Consumer end-of-period loans were $4.5 billion, down 31% from the previous year, with deposits decreasing by 18% to $7.4 billion[174].

Group 1 - Citigroup's stake in China Pacific Insurance has decreased from 8.07% to 7.98% as of April 30 [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the next three months from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel [1] - The potential for a US-Iran agreement and the easing of sanctions could lead to Brent crude oil prices dropping to $50 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Investment Officer of Citigroup's Wealth Management division, Kate Moore, stated that the company is unable to immediately adapt to policy changes, indicating a pre-existing economic slowdown prior to the implementation of tariffs [1] Group 1 - Citigroup's Wealth Management division is facing challenges in adapting to new policy changes [1] - Economic slowdown was already evident before the introduction of tariffs [1]

据媒体最新透露的消息，其他随行的美国华尔街投资机构高管还包括来自黑石集团的共同创始人兼首席 执行官苏世民(SteveSchwarzman)、来自富兰克林邓普顿的珍妮·约翰逊，以及来自谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.的首席财务官露丝·珀拉特(RuthPorat)。 智通财经APP获悉，据媒体报道，全球最大规模资管巨头贝莱德公司(BlackRock )的首席执行官拉里·芬 克、华尔街金融巨头花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)首席执行官简·弗雷泽以及多位来自硅谷的美国科技巨头高 管们，将在下周随美国总统唐纳德·特朗普一起访问中东经济大国——沙特阿拉伯。 据媒体报道，这些来自华尔街和硅谷的高管们计划将于5月13日在利雅得的"沙美投资论坛"上发表重要 演讲。在论坛举办当日，特朗普将抵达沙特并预计会晤沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。 重返白宫的美国总统特朗普也将前往卡塔尔和阿联酋，这是其重新掌权以来的首次出访。他希望这些富 含油气资源的海湾国家加大对美国的投资并购买更多的美国制造与生产的各项重要产品。 据了解，来自美国老牌科技巨头IBM的首席执行官阿文德·克里希纳以及来自美国智能手机与汽车芯片 领军者高通公司(Q ...

与此同时，4月2日关税政策宣布后，软数据呈现明显走弱趋势，美国4月制造业PMI略高于50，本周公布的ISM制造业指数跌幅小于预期，为48.7，新订单 和就业分项指标较3月有所增加，但仍处于收缩状态。 报告预测，在关税至少未来几个月内保持在当前水平的情况下，美国经济将经历三个阶段的影响："抢购潮"暂时提振经济数据、不确定性导致投资雇佣放 缓、供应受限引发裁员潮和涨价潮。这一过程可能迫使美联储今年降息125个基点，远超市场预期。 美国经济表现尚强劲的背后，关税冲击才刚刚开始？ 据追风交易台消息，花旗银行分析师Veronica Clark等的最新研报显示，尽管近期市场乐观情绪因关税减缓预期而升温，美股已完全收复4月2日关税宣布 后的跌幅，但美债收益率（尤其是2年期）显著下行，市场仍在消化美联储今年将降息超过80个基点的预期。 根据花旗分析，招聘率在3月JOLTS数据中横向移动在3.4%(私营部门为3.7%)。但职位空缺在3月下降，并可能进一步下降，高频数据显示，职位发布在4 月下旬开始快速下降。另据招聘网站Indeed的数据，自4月2日关税宣布以来，工作岗位发布已经出现明显下滑。 第一阶段："抢购潮"暂时提振经济数 ...

Core Insights - President Donald Trump is set to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, marking his first pre-arranged overseas trip since taking office [1] - The visit aims to encourage Gulf nations to increase investments in the U.S. and purchase more American goods, with a target of $1 trillion in investments from Saudi Arabia [1] - High-profile executives from major companies, including BlackRock, Citigroup, and various tech firms, will accompany Trump and participate in the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum [1] Group 1 - The visit includes key executives such as Larry Fink from BlackRock and Jane Fraser from Citigroup, indicating strong corporate interest in the Gulf region [1] - The Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum will cover topics such as energy, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and finance, highlighting the focus on innovation and investment opportunities [1] - Notable attendees will include Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser and Saudi ministers of energy, investment, and finance, emphasizing the importance of government and corporate collaboration [1]

参与会议的美国大型银行和美国信投公司的高层解释了许多企业对关税的担忧。美国花旗集 团首席执行官Jane Fraser表示，客户企业"把部分支出提前，并推迟投资决策。仍在观望中"。 Jane Fraser还表示："大部分客户认为，如果关税率为10%是可以承受的，如果是25%则不可承 受"。美国已对许多国家和地区实施了统一的10%的对等关税，在此基础上的附加部分除了中 国之外已暂时停止。 美国大型投资公司KKR的联合创始人Henry Kravis表示，最近对话的企业经营者都将"关税视 为首要课题，正在考虑如何应对"。与他一起发言的KKR联合创始人George Roberts表示，由 于美国政府在某些领域表现出让步的姿态，在单独进行的双边贸易谈判中"将达成协议"，持乐 观态度。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）竹内弘文 洛杉矶 出席米尔肯研究所全球会议的国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃（5月5日，洛杉矶，REUTERS） IMF总裁指出，特朗普关税将改变传统的国际贸易体系，转向新体系伴随着不确定 性，"影响深远"。花旗集团CEO表示："大部分客户认为，如果关税率为10%是可以承受的，如 果是25%则不可 ...