Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE Conference 2025 June 10, 2025 7:30 AM ET Company Participants Vis Raghavan - Corporate Participant Conference Call Participants Betsy Lynn Graseck - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Betsy Lynn Graseck All right. So thank you so much for joining us this morning. I have to read the disclosure first for important disclosures. Please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. Taking a photogra ...

Summary of Citigroup (C) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Citigroup (C) - **Date**: June 10, 2025 - **Speaker**: Viz Raghavan, Head of Banking Key Points Industry Insights - **Investment Banking Landscape**: The investment banking sector is experiencing a renaissance at Citigroup, with notable share gains in M&A and high-grade bond issuance [6][10][11] - **Market Share Growth**: Citigroup's market share in investment banking increased from approximately 4% to 4.5% in 2024, reaching 5.3% in the most recent quarter [10][11] - **High-Grade Bond Issuance**: The surge in high-grade bond issuance was attributed to pre-election corporate funding and acquisition financing [11][12] Strategic Focus - **Talent Investment**: Citigroup is in the early stages of significant talent investment to enhance its banking capabilities [10] - **Private Credit Market**: The private credit market is now mainstream, with a significant amount of capital waiting to be deployed. Citigroup's partnership with Apollo aims to address supply issues in this market [18][22][23] - **Sector Focus**: Key sectors for growth include technology, healthcare, and industrials, which together account for 50-60% of the fee pool [27][62] Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Citigroup expects mid-single-digit growth in banking year-on-year, with mid to high single-digit growth in market activities [43][44] - **Expense Management**: Anticipated expenses for the quarter are expected to increase by $200 million, but overall expenses for the year are expected to align with guidance [45][48] - **Credit Quality**: Over 80% of corporate exposures are high-grade, providing comfort regarding the quality of the credit book [46][47] Market Dynamics - **Client Sentiment**: There is significant anxiety among clients regarding tariffs and supply chain issues, impacting their decision-making processes [32][34] - **M&A Activity**: M&A remains active, driven by both corporate and sponsor engagements, with Citigroup involved in high-profile deals [37][39] - **IPO Market**: The IPO market is currently stagnant, particularly for companies with supply chain concerns, which may lead to increased M&A activity [40][41] Future Outlook - **Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE)**: Citigroup aims to increase ROTCE from around 7% in 2024 to 10-11% in the medium term, driven by revenue growth and improved capital efficiency [58][67] - **Geographical Expansion**: Key markets for growth include the UK, Germany, Middle East, China, and Japan, with a focus on enhancing the commercial banking segment [29][30][62] Additional Considerations - **Cultural Shift**: There is a cultural shift within Citigroup towards a focus on return on capital and overall opportunity costs, rather than just revenue generation [56][58] - **Transformation Dividend**: Citigroup is expected to benefit from a transformation dividend as it optimizes expenses and capital allocation [70][72] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the Citigroup conference call, highlighting the company's focus on growth, market dynamics, and financial performance.

Core Insights - Citigroup plans to recruit talent in the capital markets and leveraged finance sectors [1] Group 1 - The company aims to enhance its capabilities in capital markets [1] - The recruitment initiative is part of a broader strategy to strengthen its position in leveraged finance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Emerging Markets (EM), indicating a favorable investment environment due to the depreciation of the USD and supportive local currency bond flows [1][19]. Core Insights - The depreciation of the USD is expected to continue benefiting EM local debt returns, with significant inflows into EM local currency funds observed recently [1][19]. - The report highlights the importance of upcoming US Treasury auctions as potential indicators for EM performance, particularly in the context of equity and fixed income returns [14][19]. - Structural international positions are not shifting significantly, which is likely to sustain inflows into EM credit and local currency bonds [19][20]. Summary by Sections Emerging Markets Overview - The report discusses the ongoing depreciation of the USD and its implications for EM, suggesting that tariffs-related issues may continue to limit USD strength [1][14]. - Local currency bond flows are expected to be supported by both external and internal factors, with recent performance tracking positively [19]. Asia Focus - In China, the USDCNY is below fixing levels, and upcoming fixings will be crucial for assessing policy bias, with expectations for lower rates from the PBoC [2][32]. - Indonesia is highlighted as a bullish opportunity, with expectations for the IDR to appreciate due to returning portfolio inflows and a favorable economic backdrop [37][38]. - The Philippines is expected to see a gradual decline in yields, with current underperformance likely to be short-lived as supply dynamics improve [42][44]. CEEMEA and LatAm Insights - In Israel, economic fundamentals are becoming more relevant as the conflict nears resolution, with inflation and growth trajectories under scrutiny [3][48]. - Colombia's fiscal rule suspension and labor reform efforts are noted, with macroeconomic data showing resilience despite a cautious outlook on cash positions [3]. - The report maintains a neutral stance on rates in CEEMEA while expressing a positive outlook on duration in Mexico and Brazil [29][30].

Group 1 - Despite signs of a cooling labor market and slowing economic activity, Wall Street strategists remain optimistic about summer stock market performance, maintaining S&P 500 year-end target prices in the range of 6300-6500 points, believing the worst impact of tariffs may have passed [1][4] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6010 points, approximately 2% below its historical high, following a nearly 30% correction earlier this year [1][4] - Recent economic data shows weakness, with May ADP private sector employment adding only 37,000 jobs, the lowest in over two years, and initial jobless claims rising to the highest level since October 2024 [4][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, noted that the slowdown in economic data was anticipated, and historical analysis shows that soft economic data often bottoms out before hard economic data [5][8] - Kostin's research indicates that the correlation between the S&P 500 index returns and soft data is currently higher than that with hard data, predicting the S&P 500 could reach 6500 points in the next 12 months if the recovery in soft data continues [5][8] - Citigroup's U.S. equity strategy head, Scott Chronert, raised the S&P 500 target from 5800 to 6300 points, citing a significant reduction in trade uncertainty following the pause in tariff increases between the U.S. and China [5][8] Group 3 - Despite acknowledging potential risks from rising interest rates and high valuations, strategists believe that as long as the economic slowdown does not exceed expectations, growth sectors, particularly large tech stocks, still hold investment value [8] - The dual support from easing trade tensions and improving soft data is becoming a key basis for strategists' optimistic outlook [8]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 李明会 北京报道 近日，花旗集团宣布推进全球简化工作，作为其中一部分，将精简全球技术解决中心——花旗金融信息服务（中 国）有限公司（下称"花旗金融"）在上海和大连的技术人员，包含第三方人员（约500人）在内，约减少4000名技 术人员。 在此次裁员中受到影响的宋女士在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，"虽然'一锅端'来得非常突然，但'N+6+3个 月带薪假'的大礼包还是让我'意满离'（网络流行语，意为满意离开）。" 此次人员调整是否影响花旗在华战略？ 对此，花旗相关工作人员在6月9日接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，此次调整不影响花旗银行（中国）有限公 司（下称"花旗中国"）。花旗坚定在中国长期发展，持续服务企业和机构客户的跨境银行需求。 突然的裁员 国家企业信用信息公示系统显示，花旗在中国内地有三家金融信息服务公司，分别在上海、大连和广州。根据公 示，位于上海和大连的两家处于存续（在营、开业、在册）状态，位于广州的公司为在营（开业）企业，而此次 裁员仅涉及上海和大连两地技术人员，包含500名外包员工在内，裁员约涉及4000人。 "仅仅保留了非常少的员工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global investment market in Q3 is characterized by uncertainty, influenced by geopolitical factors and trade policies, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors [1] Group 1: HSBC Insights - HSBC emphasizes the importance of structural growth in Asia, particularly in China, India, and Singapore, which are expected to mitigate some impacts of the US-China trade war [2] - The bank maintains a diversified investment strategy, adjusting its outlook for US stocks to positive, anticipating a slowdown in economic growth to 1.6% by 2025, while still facing uncertainties [2][3] - HSBC suggests a focus on quality bonds and low-correlation assets, such as gold, to enhance portfolio diversification amid ongoing geopolitical risks [3] Group 2: Standard Chartered Insights - Standard Chartered upgrades its global stock outlook to overweight, citing improved market technical indicators and resilience in economic activity and corporate earnings as key factors [4] - The bank also increases its allocation to US stocks slightly, while emphasizing the importance of diversification across major regions, particularly favoring Chinese stocks due to stimulus measures [4] - Standard Chartered lowers its stance on gold to a core holding, anticipating a period of consolidation, while still finding high-quality bonds attractive in the current yield environment [4] Group 3: OCBC Insights - OCBC highlights that the current weakness of the US dollar is influenced by trade policies, geopolitical factors, and global capital flows, rather than solely by interest rate cuts [5] - The bank advocates for a dynamic asset allocation strategy that increases exposure to safe-haven assets like gold and yen, while also focusing on currencies and equities driven by internal demand in Asia [5] - OCBC notes that some companies are shifting production to ASEAN countries, indicating a transition from simple exports to building local supply and industrial chains [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a tightening trade balance with a significant drop in imports, suggesting a potential positive impact on GDP in the second quarter [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The trade balance in April tightened to -$61.6 billion, a substantial improvement from -$138.3 billion in March, driven by a nearly 20% month-over-month decline in imports [3][5]. - The decline in imports is attributed to the implementation of substantial tariffs, front-loading of goods, and uncertainty regarding future tariff policies [1][5][7]. - Imports from China are expected to decrease further due to high tariffs of 145% that were not delayed until mid-May, impacting trade dynamics significantly [8][9]. Summary by Sections Trade Balance and Imports - The trade balance with Canada improved from -$4.9 billion to -$2.6 billion, while the balance with Mexico tightened to -$13.5 billion, reflecting declines in imports of 17.2% and 10.3% respectively [4]. - Imports from the EU fell by 35.7%, contributing to a tighter trade balance of -$17.9 billion [4]. - Overall, imports from China decreased by 18.9%, leading to a trade balance of -$19.7 billion [4]. Economic Implications - The significant drop in imports is expected to provide a mechanical boost to GDP in the second quarter, although some of this effect may be offset by weaker inventories and consumption [10]. - The effective tariff rate on goods imported to the US was around 7% as of April, indicating a substantial increase in trade costs [11][13]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential rebound in imports in May as tariff clarity improves, although ongoing uncertainty and policy changes are likely to create volatility in trade data throughout the year [5][7][9].

Investment Rating - The report forecasts exports to grow approximately 4% YoY in May despite tariff shocks [1][3]. Core Insights - China's shipping activities have shown resilience, with a narrowing contraction in containership departures for the US, from -32.9% YoY to -14.8% YoY in the 15 days ending June 4 [2][13]. - Overall cargo throughput in China remained steady, with a reported 4.8% YoY increase in cargo throughput volume for the week ending June 1, slightly down from 5.4% YoY the previous week [3][14]. - Container exports volume continued to exhibit double-digit growth, recorded at 12.3% YoY for the week ending May 30, although this was a decrease from 15.5% YoY a week prior [3][9]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - Exports to the US are experiencing a shallow rebound ahead of summer, but still face tariff impacts and increased volatility [2]. - US import bills from China for seaborne routes have declined significantly, down 38.8% YoY in the week ending May 31 [2][8]. Cargo Throughput - The Ministry of Transport (MoT) reported a 4.8% YoY increase in overall cargo throughput volume, indicating continued expansion in shipping activities [3][14]. - The growth in container exports volume per PortWatch/IMF was noted at 12.3% YoY, reflecting ongoing strength in the sector [3][9]. Container Departures - The contraction in container departures from China to the US has narrowed, indicating a potential recovery in shipping activities [2][13].

Group 1 - Citigroup announced a significant reduction of approximately 3,500 technology personnel at its global technology solution centers in Shanghai and Dalian as part of a global workforce simplification initiative [2][4] - Including around 500 affected third-party personnel, nearly 4,000 individuals lost their jobs overnight [3][4] - The layoffs are part of Citigroup's plan to cut about 20,000 jobs by the end of 2026, which will reduce its total workforce by approximately 10% [3][4] Group 2 - Employees affected by the layoffs have the option for severance packages, with the highest compensation being "N+6+3," which includes a three-month buffer period where salaries and benefits continue [5][6] - The company has been undergoing strategic adjustments, including the sale of its personal retail wealth management business in mainland China to HSBC, affecting over 300 employees [6][7] - Citigroup's financial performance showed a revenue increase of 3% year-over-year to $81.1 billion and a net profit increase of 37% to $12.7 billion for the year 2024 [6][8] Group 3 - Citigroup has a long history in China, being the first American bank to operate there since 1902, and has been adjusting its business focus towards corporate and institutional clients [6][8] - Recent leadership changes include the appointment of Zhang Wenjie as the new president of Citigroup China, following the resignation of the previous president [8][9] - Zhang brings 30 years of experience in corporate and institutional banking, having previously held senior positions at major financial institutions [9]