消息面上，刚果金钴出口政策于9月21日正式落地，包括延长钴出口禁令至2025年10月15日，随后将实 施出口配额，2026至2027年配额将为正常产量的40%。此外，Freeport公司表示，由于发生致命泥流事 故，印度尼西亚格拉斯伯格铜矿的采矿作业自9月8日起已暂时停止，该矿山可能要到2027年才能恢复到 事故前的运营水平。 值得注意的是，9月23日晚，洛阳钼业发布一项重磅股权激励计划，拟建立H股受限制股票计划，在计 划有效期之内向激励对象授予不超过3.93亿股H股股份用于股权激励，上限约占已发行港股总数的 10%。以当日收盘价每股12.760港元计算，此次激励的总计划金额达50亿港元，约占公司港股总市值的 1.8%。据悉，这是港股近几年规模最大的股权激励计划之一。 洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)AH股早盘均创历史新高，截至发稿，A股涨停，H股涨14.53%，报14.35港 元，成交额13.62亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The niobium concept sector has seen a significant increase, with Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reaching its daily limit up [1]

Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing favorable policies and supply-demand dynamics, with tight copper supply supporting prices and "anti-involution" policies expected to improve the smelting and processing landscape [1] - Domestic growth stabilization policies and the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle are anticipated to enhance demand, leading to a potentially strong copper price trend [1] - China holds a leading advantage in rare earth resources, smelting, and downstream magnetic materials, with developments in humanoid robots and new energy sectors providing new demand momentum [1] Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. reported impressive performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.07%, marking a historical high for the period [2] - The company produced 353,600 tons of copper, a 12.68% year-on-year increase, also a historical high for the same period, supported by the TFM and KFM projects [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum completed the acquisition of the Ecuadorian Cangrejos gold mine, further diversifying its product matrix [2] Market Dynamics - The silicon carbide price increased by 5.7% this week, reaching a three-month high, while high-purity gallium prices rose by 1.1%, indicating a recovery in demand for high-end electronic materials [2] - The lithium concentrate price at China's ports rose by 3.71%, and the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide remains at a 19-month high, suggesting that some rare metal raw materials are still in a favorable market condition [2] ETF Performance - As of September 25, 2025, the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index rose by 1.44%, with the Rare Metals ETF (159608) increasing by 1.53%, peaking over 2% during trading [3] - The top ten weighted stocks account for 57.58% of the index, with Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 7.29% and hitting the daily limit [3] - The Rare Metals ETF has seen a significant growth of 17.1 million yuan in the past month, with net inflows on 10 out of the last 18 trading days, totaling 14.5 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous sector experienced a strong rally on the 25th, with significant gains in copper and cobalt stocks, including a limit-up for Jingyi Co., Northern Copper, and over 7% increase for Luoyang Molybdenum [1] - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia faced a fatal landslide, leading to a substantial rise in global copper prices and supply chain concerns, with production expected to be halted until at least 2027 [1] - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of its expected production before 2029, indicating a long-term impact on global copper supply [1] Group 2 - The cobalt export quota system implemented by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reflects the government's commitment to controlling global cobalt prices, with expected supply shortages from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The DRC's export quota policy is projected to result in a significant reduction in global cobalt supply, with shortages of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively for those years, likely leading to a strong increase in cobalt prices [2] - Companies involved in cobalt smelting in Indonesia and those with mines in the DRC are expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated rise in cobalt prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector has experienced a significant rise, with notable stock price increases for several companies, indicating a positive market sentiment towards lithium-related investments [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reached its daily limit up in stock price [2] - Western Mining Co., Ltd. saw its stock price increase by over 7% [2] - Other companies such as Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, Zhezhong Co., Ganfeng Lithium, and Tibet Mining also reported substantial stock price gains [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) experiencing a significant jump, reflecting strong performance since its low point in April 2023, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 2.7% and is currently up 1.8% [1] - Since the low on April 8, 2023, the ETF has risen by 55.21%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite (24.45%) and CSI 300 (27.21%) [1] - The top six constituents of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index are all copper industry leaders, with notable gains from Northern Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A landslide at the Grasberg copper mine, the world's second-largest, has halted production, with Freeport estimating a 35% drop in copper and gold output for 2026 and a return to pre-accident production levels not expected until 2027 [3] - Short-term factors such as tariff suspensions and supply disruptions are expected to support copper prices, while long-term demand from home appliance subsidies and increased investment in power grids may further elevate price levels [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Huabao Fund suggests increasing allocation to the non-ferrous sector, as the economic recovery's impact on cyclical goods has yet to be fully realized [3] - CITIC Construction anticipates that domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors will enhance profitability across the supply chain, benefiting metal prices [3] Group 4: Sector Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide diversified exposure to various metals, with copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium comprising 25.3%, 14.2%, 13.8%, 13.6%, and 7.6% of the index, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, driven by supply concerns following Freeport McMoran's announcement of force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is critical to global copper supply [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Daye Nonferrous Metals rose over 12.5%, with a year-to-date increase of 31.25% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum increased by 11.01%, marking a staggering year-to-date rise of 179.76% [2] - Jiangxi Copper Co. saw an increase of 7.98%, with a year-to-date growth of 128.95% [2] - Jinchuan Group's share price rose by 5.71%, with a year-to-date increase of 189.09% [2] - Zijin Mining's stock increased by 4.59%, with a year-to-date rise of 128.01% [2] - Ganfeng Lithium's shares rose by 3.35%, with a year-to-date increase of 94.93% [2] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Freeport McMoran's Grasberg mine accounts for 3.2% of global copper supply and over 70% of the company's total copper production [1] - The unexpected supply disruption is expected to impact global copper production by more than 6% [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals up over 12%, Luoyang Molybdenum up over 11% reaching a historical high, Jiangxi Copper up nearly 8%, Jinchuan Group up over 5%, Zijin Mining up over 4%, and Ganfeng Lithium up over 3% [1] - Freeport McMoran announced a force majeure on its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has reignited market concerns over supply, pushing LME copper futures to a one-year high [1] - The Grasberg mine accounts for 3.2% of global copper supply and over 70% of Freeport's total copper production, with unexpected supply disruptions expected to impact over 6% of global copper output [1] Group 2 - The stock performance of key companies in the non-ferrous metal sector includes: - China Daye Nonferrous Metals: up 12.50%, latest price at 0.063, market cap at 1.127 billion, year-to-date increase of 31.25% [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum: up 11.01%, latest price at 13.910, market cap at 29.7595 billion, year-to-date increase of 179.76% [2] - Jiangxi Copper: up 7.98%, latest price at 26.780, market cap at 9.2732 billion, year-to-date increase of 128.95% [2] - Jinchuan Group: up 5.71%, latest price at 22.200, market cap at 303.8 million, year-to-date increase of 189.09% [2] - Zijin Mining: up 4.59%, latest price at 31.000, market cap at 82.3905 billion, year-to-date increase of 128.01% [2] - Ganfeng Lithium: up 3.35%, latest price at 38.860, market cap at 799.43 million, year-to-date increase of 94.93% [2]

Core Insights - The copper sector experienced a significant surge on September 25, with the "copper-weighted" Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising nearly 3% shortly after market open, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Freeport-McMoRan announced a force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, leading to a reduction in copper and gold sales guidance for Q3 2025 by 4% and 6% respectively, and a projected 35% drop in production for 2026 [2][3] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs labeled the Grasberg incident as a "black swan," predicting a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12-15 months, which is expected to drive copper prices higher [3] Market Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 300,000 units, amounting to approximately 4 million yuan, reflecting strong market demand [1] - Key stocks in the copper sector, such as Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum, reached their daily limit up, while Jiangxi Copper and Western Mining also saw significant gains [4] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued upward pressure on copper prices due to supply disruptions [6] Supply Chain Impact - The Grasberg mine accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply, and its continued shutdown is expected to exacerbate supply tightness in the market [3] - Other mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula project, are also facing delays, further contributing to supply chain disruptions and potential price increases [3][6] - Current copper inventories have shown a slight increase, but the overall supply remains constrained, with ongoing concerns about production in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo [6] Investment Outlook - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle due to its high copper content and exposure to precious metals, making it attractive for investors looking for opportunities in the industrial metals sector [7] - The overall investment environment for nonferrous metals is bolstered by favorable macroeconomic conditions, including supply-side policies and demand recovery [7]

Core Viewpoint - The niobium concept sector is experiencing a strong performance, with Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reaching its daily limit up [1] Group 1 - The niobium concept sector is showing strength in the market [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has hit the daily trading limit, indicating significant investor interest [1]