智通财经7月30日电，德意志银行将Stellantis目标价从8欧元下调至7.5欧元。 ...

克拉默指出，美欧达成贸易协定后，美国对欧盟商品的平均进口关税达15%，这意味着德国对美出口或 锐减三分之一。他认为，美国关税政策标志着一场"历史性转折"，未来数年乃至数十年，全球化将让位 于"去全球化"。这将给德国工业，尤其是化工行业带来严峻挑战。 对于美国经济，尽管关税不确定性也会拖累美国经济增长，但克拉默认为美国不会陷入衰退。克拉默指 出，特朗普总统接手的是"一个非常稳健的经济体"。自疫情以来，美国经济累计增长12%，这一增量相 当于德国全年GDP总量，彰显了美国经济的"内在活力与韧性"。 中化新网讯 近日，德国商业银行首席经济学家约尔格·克拉默在德国化工协会(VCI)举办的网络研讨会上 表示，受美国关税政策影响，德国化工、制药及其他行业对美出口将大幅下滑。 而对于德国，克拉默预测，德国经济明年将迎来复苏，主要驱动力是降息及政府计划通过举债加大基建 与国防支出。2026年德国GDP预计增长1.4%，尽管这种复苏可能转瞬即逝，但总好过陷入长期衰退。 然而，克拉默对德国能否借关税挑战推动经济"重启"表示怀疑，德国政府难以解决官僚主义、高税收、 高劳动力成本、高能源成本及复杂昂贵的审批流程等增长障碍。 对于德国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing bubble risk in the U.S. stock market due to rising speculative activities and leverage levels, as warned by major investment banks [1][4][12] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs strategists noted that speculative trading activities have reached historical highs, second only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [2][6] - Deutsche Bank pointed out that margin debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, indicating a "heated" level of borrowing to invest in stocks [3][10] - Bank of America reiterated the bubble risk, attributing it to loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations, suggesting that increased retail participation leads to greater liquidity and volatility [4][14][16] Group 3 - The speculative trading indicator from Goldman Sachs shows that the proportion of trading in unprofitable stocks and overvalued stocks has increased, with significant activity in major tech companies and firms involved in digital assets [8][7] - Deutsche Bank reported an 18.5% increase in margin debt over two months, marking the fastest pace of leverage since late 1999 or mid-2007 [10][11] - Bank of America forecasts that the global policy interest rate will decrease further, potentially leading to larger market bubbles [14][18]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) has ended its easing cycle and will next move towards raising interest rates, expected to occur by the end of 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Current Monetary Policy Stance** - Deutsche Bank previously anticipated that the ECB would lower interest rates again in September, with a terminal rate forecast of 1.50% compared to the current rate of 2% [1] - The risk of the ECB's easing cycle stopping at 1.75% or even 2.00% was acknowledged by Deutsche Bank [1] - **Future Outlook** - The next action from the ECB is expected to be an interest rate hike, projected to take place by the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank no longer expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates and anticipates the next policy action will be an interest rate hike at the end of 2026 [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's revised outlook indicates a shift in monetary policy expectations for the European Central Bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank is losing its competitive edge in leveraged financing transactions, struggling to maintain market share and facing challenges in recent debt underwriting efforts [1][4] Group 1: Market Position and Performance - Deutsche Bank's market share in leveraged financing has dropped to eighth place, controlling only 3.6% of global transactions, down from a peak of 9% in 2014 [1] - The bank's revenue trajectory is declining, with projected income for the first half of 2025 in Europe expected to plummet by 35% to €74 million ($86 million), and a 27% decline in the U.S. market to $145 million [5] Group 2: Strategic Challenges - The decline in Deutsche Bank's leveraged financing business is attributed to multiple factors, including strategic retrenchment under CEO Christian Sewing, regulatory pressures, and a changing market landscape [6] - The scarcity of merger and acquisition transactions has led to a reduction in high-fee projects, while the current focus on debt restructuring is not aligned with management's interests [6] Group 3: Talent and Leadership Issues - The bank has experienced significant talent loss, with key executives leaving for competitors, which has further weakened its position in the leveraged financing market [6][7] - Deutsche Bank is actively working to fill vacancies, having recruited talent from other financial institutions to bolster its capabilities [7] Group 4: Recent Transaction Challenges - The recent underwriting of a $4.3 billion debt for Apollo Global Management's acquisition of International Game Technology faced investor reluctance, forcing the bank to improve terms to close the deal [1] - Other challenging transactions include a $1.2 billion high-yield bond for Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority and difficulties in placing loans for 1440 Foods and Oyo Hotels [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite recent challenges, Deutsche Bank's CFO emphasized the strategic importance of the leveraged debt capital markets (LDCM) business, indicating ongoing investment in this area [8]

Once known as a stalwart in that business — placing among the top five in league tables — Deutsche Bank has lost its luster over the past several years https://t.co/sQGmzTpAvt ...

金十数据7月28日讯，德意志银行分析师Mark Wall表示，美欧贸易协议降低了欧洲央行进一步降息的必 要性。因为协议达成后，欧元区贸易政策的不确定性下降，欧洲央行进一步降息的压力将会减小。欧元 区货币市场预计欧洲央行今年12月降息的可能性不到60%，欧洲央行9月或10月降息的可能性很小。 德银：美欧贸易协定降低了欧洲央行降息的必要性 ...

Group 1 - The core of the U.S. AI action plan is to redefine global power dynamics, positioning AI as a key strategic direction for industrial and informational transformation [1] - Data center electricity consumption in the U.S. is projected to rise from 4.4% of total electricity usage in 2023 to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028, indicating a potential doubling of power demand within five years [1] - The current U.S. power infrastructure may become a critical constraint on AI advancements due to unprecedented pressure from exponential growth in computing power [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is pursuing a three-pronged strategy to address energy challenges: delaying the retirement of key power plants, modernizing the existing transmission network, and investing in advanced technologies like small modular nuclear reactors [3] - The deep connection between the U.S. economy and AI industry is expected to create new growth opportunities while also increasing vulnerability to technological cycles [3] - The capital market is reflecting the pain of energy transition, with significant valuation increases for traditional energy giants and emerging nuclear technology firms, indicating a projected investment of over $100 billion in U.S. power infrastructure over the next five years [5]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has set a target for a post-tax average return on tangible equity (ROTE) of no less than 10% as part of its 2022-2025 "Global Universal Bank" strategy, reflecting significant improvement in its credit status through business restructuring [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank has improved its credit status, leading to upgrades from multiple rating agencies [1] - The actual ROTE for the first half of the year reached 11%, demonstrating the feasibility of the set target [1] - Although still lagging behind other major European peers, the target represents a significant enhancement in performance [1]