又一家知名车企在上海拿地。 近日，上海吉利翟然汽车设计有限公司（下称"翟然汽车设计公司"）以4.49亿元的价格竞得徐汇区康健 街道N06-36地块（下称"康健地块"），该地块土地用途为科研设计用地。 天眼查显示，该公司为吉利汽车控股（上海）有限公司全资子公司。 本次成交康健地块位于漕河泾开发区域内，西至虹漕南路，北至漕宝路，地块1km范围内聚集了中核、 中电科等科研设计机构和上海师范大学等高等院校，集科研、教育、设计、商务于一体，距离最近的虹 漕路地铁站仅约200米，区位较好。 出让文件显示，康健地块出让面积8561.1平方米，容积率3.5，规划为科研设计用地，准入产业类型为智 能网联汽车。 这一要求便已将范围缩到极小。 最终，10月10日，翟然汽车设计公司一轮底价摘地。 这宗不足5亿元的土地竞拍获得市场较大关注很大程度上与小米有关。 此前，市场消息多传该地块的买家或为小米。 传闻并非空穴来风。 一方面，小米"退地"一事今年闹得沸沸扬扬。 2021年，小米旗下的谧空间（上海）信息科技有限公司以总价15.5亿元竞得徐汇区斜土街道xh128D-07 地块，当时该地块规划为商办用地，有报道称小米规划建设上海总部。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company continues to launch new models, steadily enhancing its international competitiveness [1] - In September, the company reported sales of 202,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 21% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. New energy vehicle sales reached 91,000 units, up 76% year-on-year and 20% month-on-month [3] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with exports in September reaching 39,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51% [3] - The company is steadily introducing new models and continuously improving its technological capabilities, with recent launches including the Lynk & Co Z10 and Z9, and the Zeekr 7X [3] Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 15.463 billion, 10.720 billion, and 14.232 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 7.72, 11.13, and 8.38 times for the same years [4] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 179.204 billion RMB in 2023 to 354.944 billion RMB in 2026, with a revenue growth rate of 26.21% in 2024 [5][6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 6.59% in 2023 to 11.75% in 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][3] Core Views - In September 2024, the company achieved a record high in new energy vehicle sales, with a total of 202,000 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 21% [3] - The new energy vehicle sales reached 91,000 units in September 2024, accounting for over 45% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of about 76% [3] - The company is expected to see continued revenue and net profit growth due to the implementation of the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, with projected net profits of 15.95 billion, 13.22 billion, and 17.25 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [3][4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 179.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 388.2 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% [4][6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 15.95 billion yuan, a significant increase from 5.17 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 209% [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.58 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.71 yuan by 2026 [4][6] Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8-10 times for 2024, corresponding to a fair value range of 13.79 to 17.24 HKD [3][5] - Compared to peers, the average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 22.0 for 2024, indicating that the company may be undervalued [5] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from 22.34 billion yuan in 2023 to 26.49 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6] - The net cash increase is projected to be 10.003 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting positive cash flow management [6] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are expected to grow from 192.6 billion yuan in 2023 to 294.7 billion yuan in 2026, indicating robust asset growth [7] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 80.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 126.9 billion yuan in 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Geely Automobile reported a total vehicle sales of 202,000 units in September 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.0% and a month-on-month increase of 11.4% [11] - The cumulative sales for the first nine months of 2024 reached 1.49 million units, up 32.1% year-on-year [11] - The launch of the Galaxy E5 has significantly boosted sales, with the new energy vehicle sales reaching a historical high [11] - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory due to the launch of new products and increased subsidies for trade-in policies [11] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2024, Geely brand sales were 155,000 units, up 16.4% year-on-year and 10.0% month-on-month [11] - The Galaxy series sold 29,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 122.1% [11] - Cumulative sales for the Geely brand in the first nine months of 2024 were 1.151 million units, up 26.6% year-on-year [11] New Energy Vehicles - In September 2024, new energy vehicle sales totaled 91,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.8% [11] - The penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 45.1%, up 14.1 percentage points year-on-year [11] Export Strategy - In September 2024, the company exported 39,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 51.2% [11] - Cumulative exports for the first nine months of 2024 reached 314,000 units, up 68.4% year-on-year [11] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 229.8 billion, 272.9 billion, and 318.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.2%, 18.8%, and 16.7% respectively [12] - Net profit projections for the same period are 7.64 billion, 11.61 billion, and 14.08 billion yuan, with growth rates of 44.0%, 51.9%, and 21.3% respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [2][3] Core Views - Geely's wholesale sales in September reached 202,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 11.4%. Cumulatively, from January to September, total sales reached 1.49 million units, up 29.4% year-on-year [2] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in September were 91,134 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.7% and a month-on-month increase of 20.7%, with a penetration rate of 45.1% [2] - Geely's brands performed well, with the Galaxy brand selling 29,047 units in September and a cumulative total of 115,100 units from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 249.8% [2] - The launch of the Zeekr 7X SUV and the pre-sale of the new Geely model Star Wish are expected to strengthen the product cycle and drive sales growth [2] - Export sales reached a new high in September, with 39,183 units exported, accounting for 19.4% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [2] - The report forecasts revenues of 224.78 billion, 268.69 billion, and 298.83 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with net profits of 15.4 billion, 12.2 billion, and 15.8 billion yuan respectively [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - September wholesale sales: 202,000 units, +18.5% YoY, +11.4% MoM - NEV sales in September: 91,134 units, +69.7% YoY, +20.7% MoM, 45.1% penetration rate - Cumulative sales from January to September: 1.49 million units, +29.4% YoY [2] Brand Performance - Galaxy brand: September sales of 29,047 units, cumulative sales of 115,100 units, +249.8% YoY - Zeekr brand: September sales of 21,333 units, cumulative sales of 142,873 units, +81.0% YoY - Lynk brand: September sales of 25,803 units, cumulative sales of 195,603 units, +39.9% YoY [2] Product Launches - Zeekr 7X launched on September 20, with over 20,000 orders in the first week - Star Wish pre-sale started on September 14, expected to launch on October 9 [2] Export Growth - September export sales: 39,183 units, +42.1% YoY - Cumulative exports from January to September: 314,000 units, +61.9% YoY [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026: 224.78 billion, 268.69 billion, 298.83 billion yuan - Net profit projections for 2024-2026: 15.4 billion, 12.2 billion, 15.8 billion yuan - EPS projections: 1.53, 1.21, 1.57 yuan [2][3]

Summary of Geely Auto Conference Call Company Overview - Geely Holding Group is a privately held company almost entirely owned by the Li Shufu family, with two core automotive groups: Geely Auto Group and Volvo Cars. The group also owns several brands including Polestar, Lotus, smart, and Zeekr, and holds stakes in Daimler, Volvo Trucks, and Aston Martin [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Geely Holding Group achieved total revenue of 260 billion RMB, with 40% (approximately 104 billion RMB) from Geely Auto and 50% (approximately 130 billion RMB) from Volvo Cars. The group reported a profit of about 13 billion RMB [3] - Geely Auto's total sales reached 960,000 units in the first half of 2024, representing a 40% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by export markets and fuel vehicle sales. Revenue grew by 47% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.1% [7][8] - Geely Auto's profit for the first half of 2024 was close to 10 billion RMB, including a one-time gain of approximately 7 billion RMB from a joint venture with Renault. Excluding this, the net profit from core operations was about 3 billion RMB, up from 1.3 billion RMB in the same period last year [9] Strategic Developments - Geely has undergone internal strategic integration, notably merging its cockpit and autonomous driving departments. All models will now use Meizu's cockpit solution, while autonomous driving technology will focus on Nvidia's solution and a lower-end, volume-driven autonomous solution [10] - The company has set a sales target of 2 million units for the year, with expectations to exceed this target, potentially reaching around 2.05 million units. Projected net profit for the year, excluding one-time gains, is estimated to be between 7 to 8 billion RMB [11] Technological Advantages - Geely's primary technological advantage lies in platformization, which supports multi-model development through economies of scale. The company currently utilizes four main platforms: CMA, SPA, Haohan Electric, and GGA, enhancing R&D efficiency and market competitiveness [6] Brand Relationships - The relationship between Geely's brands and listed companies is complex. Volvo is fully owned by the Swedish listed company Volvo Cars AB, while Polestar is held by Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC, and Lotus is owned by Lotus Technology Inc. Zeekr is consolidated into Geely's Hong Kong-listed entity while also being independently listed in the US [5] Future Outlook - Zeekr, listed on the NYSE, reported revenue of 34.8 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, with 62% from vehicle sales and a gross margin of 14.9%. The company aims for a sales target of 230,000 units for the year, with projected total revenue of 82.6 billion RMB [12][13] - Despite intense market competition, Geely and its subsidiaries are viewed positively due to strong technological capabilities and platform advantages. The company has a solid base of over 1 million fuel vehicles, and its new energy models are gradually becoming profitable, enhancing overall profitability [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The overall sales performance of Geely Auto in August was impressive, with total sales reaching 181,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% and a month-on-month increase of 20.2%. New energy vehicle sales were 75,500 units, up 64.9% year-on-year and 27.8% month-on-month. Exports reached 45,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 97.5% and a month-on-month increase of 39.1% [1] - The Zeekr brand showed steady growth in sales and improved intelligent driving capabilities, with August sales of 18,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.4% and a month-on-month increase of 15.1% [1] - The Lynk & Co brand also saw continued growth, with August sales of 22,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.9% [1] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is 1.48, 0.94, and 1.18 CNY respectively, with a target price of 10.50 CNY and 11.53 HKD, maintaining a PE ratio of 14 times for comparable companies in 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [1][4] Core Views - In August, Geely's wholesale sales reached 181,229 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 18.74% and a year-on-year increase of 20.19% [3] - The company continues to enhance its product matrix, with new models and advancements in intelligent driving technology [3] - Geely's revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are set at 213.5 billion, 258.1 billion, and 300.1 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 16% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million CNY) for 2022A was 148,565, 2023A was 179,846, and projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 213,465, 258,106, and 300,070 respectively, indicating a growth trend [2][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million CNY) for 2022A was 5,260, 2023A was 5,308, with projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E at 15,142, 11,518, and 13,833 respectively [2][4] - The latest diluted EPS for 2024E is projected at 1.50 CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 5.43, 7.14, and 5.95 for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [2][4] Sales and Market Expansion - In August, Geely's total sales of new energy vehicles reached 75,484 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 59.59% and a year-on-year increase of 27.83% [3] - The export volume in August was 45,045 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 82.27% [3] - The penetration rate of new energy products reached 42%, with a month-on-month increase of 10.66% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - In August 2024, Geely Automobile reported a significant increase in sales, achieving 181,000 vehicles sold, which represents a year-on-year growth of 21.5% and a month-on-month growth of 20.2% [4][11] - The cumulative sales from January to August 2024 reached 1.288 million vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [4][11] - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory in sales for the second half of the year, driven by a series of new product launches and enhanced subsidies for trade-in policies [4][11] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2024, Geely's brand sales reached 141,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 19.0% and a month-on-month increase of 23.6% [11] - The Galaxy series sold 27,000 units in August, showing a year-on-year growth of 138.5% and a month-on-month growth of 58.7% [11] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 41.7% in August, up 11.0 percentage points year-on-year [11] Export Growth - In August 2024, Geely's exports totaled 45,000 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97.5% and a month-on-month increase of 39.1% [11] - The company is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, with plans to launch the Zeekr X in Singapore and enter markets such as Cambodia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Vietnam by the end of the year [11] New Product Launches - August saw the launch of several new models, including the Lynk & Co 03 Champion Edition and the 2025 Lynk & Co 08 EM-P [11] - The Galaxy E5 has already seen over 12,000 deliveries as of August 26 [11] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Geely from 2024 to 2026 are projected at 229.8 billion, 272.9 billion, and 318.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.2%, 18.8%, and 16.7% respectively [11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 7.64 billion, 11.61 billion, and 14.08 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 44.0%, 51.9%, and 21.3% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [2] Core Views - Geely's wholesale sales in August reached 181,000 units, up 18.7% year-on-year and 20.2% month-on-month, with cumulative sales from January to August at 1.288 million units, a 31.3% increase year-on-year [2] - The company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in August were 75,484 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.6% and a month-on-month increase of 27.8%, with a penetration rate of 41.7% [2] - Geely's product cycle is strong with the upcoming launches of the Zeekr 7X and Lynk & Co Z10, expected to accelerate the transition to NEVs and enhance profitability [2] - Export sales reached a record high in August, with 45,045 units exported, a year-on-year increase of 82.3% [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 224.78 billion, 268.69 billion, and 298.83 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 15.4 billion, 12.2 billion, and 15.8 billion RMB [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - August wholesale sales were 181,000 units, with NEV sales at 75,484 units, achieving a penetration rate of 41.7% [2] - Cumulative sales for the first eight months reached 1.288 million units, completing 64.4% of the annual target of 2 million units [2] Product Launches - The Zeekr 7X SUV is set to launch on September 20, with a starting price of 239,900 RMB, featuring advanced comfort and smart technology [2] - The Lynk & Co Z10, the first pure electric model from Lynk & Co, is available for pre-order with a starting price of 215,800 RMB, launching on September 5 [2] Export Strategy - Export sales in August were 45,045 units, with a cumulative total of 275,000 units for the year, focusing on markets in Southeast Asia, Korea, Europe, and the Middle East [2] - Zeekr is targeting the high-end European market, with plans to expand into Western Europe by 2026 [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 224.78 billion, 268.69 billion, and 298.83 billion RMB, with net profits of 15.4 billion, 12.2 billion, and 15.8 billion RMB respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 1.53, 1.21, and 1.57 RMB for the same period [2]