Core Viewpoint - General Mills, Inc. is positioned as a stable investment opportunity with strong cash flow generation, consistent profit growth, and a reliable dividend yield, making it a potential safe haven in a volatile market [3][4][15]. Financial Performance - General Mills has achieved a 1% annual revenue growth and a 3% annual growth in net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) since fiscal 2014 [6]. - The NOPAT margin improved from 12% in fiscal 2014 to 15% in the trailing twelve months (TTM), despite a decrease in invested capital turns from 0.8 to 0.6 [7]. - Core Earnings have also grown at a compounded annual rate of 3% from fiscal 2014 through TTM [8]. Market Position - General Mills holds a leading position in several consumer food markets, with significant brands such as Cheerios and Pillsbury, which are expected to benefit from market growth [10]. - The company has maintained high NOPAT margins, averaging 15.1% in the TTM, ranking third among its main competitors [12]. Shareholder Returns - Since fiscal 2019, General Mills has returned $8.5 billion in dividends and $5.5 billion in share repurchases, representing 27% and 17% of its market cap, respectively [15][16]. - The current dividend yield stands at 4.2%, with the potential for combined dividend and share repurchase yield to reach 8.3% [18]. Cash Flow Generation - From fiscal 2019 through TTM, General Mills generated $18.3 billion in free cash flow (FCF), which is 38% of the company's enterprise value, sufficient to cover its dividend and share repurchase commitments [19][20]. Competitive Threats - The ongoing threat from private label brands is manageable, as General Mills has built sustainable brands that continue to gain market share [22]. - Walmart accounts for 22% of General Mills' consolidated net sales, indicating a concentration risk in its sales strategy [23]. Valuation Insights - The current stock price of $58 implies a market expectation of a permanent 10% decline in profits, despite historical growth rates of 3% annually over the last decade [24]. - If NOPAT grows in line with historical rates, the stock could see a potential upside of over 21%, with a target price of $70 [26][27].

Group 1 - General Mills Inc. is a market leader in packaged food, particularly in cereals, flour, dough, snacks, and pet food [1] - The company offers a dividend yield of over 4%, making it an attractive option for dividend growth investors [1] - The focus on long-term investment strategies highlights the potential for sustainable dividend growth and capital appreciation [1] Group 2 - The company is recognized for its strong performance in the dividend growth investing space, appealing to investors seeking compounding returns [1] - General Mills is categorized as a large-cap stock, which is often sought after for its stability and growth potential [1]

Group 1 - General Mills (NYSE: GIS) has a rich history of 150 years, evolving from a mill to a major player with well-known brands such as Cheerios, Häagen-Dazs, and Blue Buffalo [1] - The company has established a strong presence in the market, catering to the needs of American consumers through its diverse product offerings [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of well-researched commentary and insights into various industries and asset classes, aiming to assist readers in navigating complex global markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses potential investment opportunities in companies that are likely to perform well amid the uncertainty created by recent U.S. tariffs, particularly focusing on companies with limited international exposure and those providing consumer staples. Group 1: T-Mobile - T-Mobile is a major U.S. wireless carrier that has been gaining market share and is insulated from tariff impacts due to its focused business model [4][5] - The company reported free cash flow of $17 billion in 2024, up from $13.6 billion in 2023, with management forecasting $17.3 billion to $18 billion for the current year [5] - T-Mobile's strategy includes returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases and a modest dividend growth plan, providing it with flexibility compared to competitors like AT&T and Verizon [7][8] Group 2: CarMax - CarMax, the largest used-vehicle dealer in the U.S., is expected to benefit from increased demand for used cars due to a 25% tariff on auto imports, which could raise new car prices by $3,500 to $16,000 [9][10] - The company maintains a gross profit of around $2,300 per vehicle, allowing it to grow earnings if demand shifts to used vehicles [11] - CarMax's stock is currently priced at less than 20 times forward earnings, presenting a potential bargain if tariffs drive higher unit sales [13] Group 3: General Mills - General Mills is positioned to benefit from price increases on grocery items due to tariffs, as it has strong brands that are less affected by inflationary pressures [14][15] - The company has maintained a gross margin of around 35%, significantly higher than competitors, and is focused on cost savings and new product investments [16][17] - Despite a projected 2% drop in earnings per share for fiscal 2026, General Mills is seen as a stable investment option, trading at less than 15 times expected earnings [17]

Core Insights - The U.S. consumer is becoming more cautious due to inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty, impacting the broader staples sector [1] - Premium pet food offerings from companies like Colgate-Palmolive and General Mills are expected to remain resilient despite short-term pressures in the consumer packaged goods sector [2] Company Analysis - Colgate-Palmolive is expected to achieve sustained mid-single-digit organic sales growth driven by its Hill's Pet Nutrition division, with a price forecast of $106.00 and a Buy rating reiterated by analysts [3][5] - General Mills is projected to return to 2% – 3% organic sales growth by fiscal 2027, with its pet food business being a key catalyst, and a price forecast of $68.00 has been reiterated [6] Market Trends - The global premium pet food market is projected to grow at around 5% through 2030, with contributions from both volume and pricing [4] - The increasing humanization of pets is expected to drive mid-single-digit category growth, benefiting premium pet food [7] Competitive Landscape - General Mills has historically expanded market share through acquisitions, with its recent purchase of Whitebridge expected to enhance its position in the pet food market [7] - Despite competition from private labels, General Mills's premium positioning has supported sales acceleration and market share stability [8]

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) reported mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, wherein the bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate while the top line missed the same. Both earnings and net sales declined year over year, reflecting weaker performance. Organic net sales were below the company's expectations, primarily due to more-than-anticipated retailer inventory headwinds and a slowdown in snacking categories during the quarter. As a result, management lowered its guidance for fiscal 2025.Find the ...

General Mills Stock Forecast Today12-Month Stock Price Forecast:$67.5314.01% Upside HoldBased on 18 Analyst RatingsCurrent Price$59.23High Forecast$82.00Average Forecast$67.53Low Forecast$58.00General Mills Stock Forecast DetailsGeneral Mills NYSE: GIS isn’t an exciting stock, and its business faces headwinds, but it is fundamentally sound, investing in a turnaround and trading at historically low valuations. The stock is valued at only 14x earnings in early 2025, well below the 18x 10-year average while of ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on accelerating organic growth with a target of at least 5% HMM savings and an additional $100 million in cost savings planned for fiscal 2026 [5][16] - Consumer confidence indices indicate that consumer confidence is currently below levels seen three months ago and is comparable to 2008 [8][9] - The company expects to improve competitiveness starting in the fourth quarter with actions taken [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is stepping up investment in pricing and marketing, particularly in the fruit snacks area, where consumers are seeking value [13][14] - New product innovations are being emphasized, with a focus on fewer but bigger innovations planned for the first half of next year [32][33] - The fruit snacks category is currently down, and the company is working on improving its market share through better pricing and marketing strategies [60][61] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The snacks business is experiencing a negative gap in performance compared to previous years, attributed to decreased consumer confidence and increased value-seeking behavior [49][55] - The company notes that food-at-home consumption has increased to 87% of occasions, which is higher than pre-pandemic levels [52] - The pet food segment is facing a 5-point drag from retail inventory, particularly in dry pet food [98][99] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reinvest savings from HMM and the 53rd week to drive growth and improve competitiveness [16][82] - There is a commitment to enhancing marketing efforts and new product innovation to align with consumer preferences [85][86] - The strategy includes a holistic approach to value, focusing on marketing, innovation, and pricing [84] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that the consumer environment has not improved as expected, with consumers increasingly seeking value [7][8] - The company is optimistic about returning to growth, particularly in the cereal and soup categories, due to increased marketing and improved product offerings [93][94] - Management emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer needs and adapting to changing market conditions [45][72] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing challenges in the cereal category, with a mid-single-digit decline in U.S. retail sales [89] - There is a focus on improving the marketing and innovation of core products to regain market share [80][81] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the incremental investment needed for fiscal 2026? - Management indicated that the consumer environment has not improved as expected, and they are focusing on value and marketing to drive growth [7][8] Question: What are the tailwinds and headwinds for next year? - Management identified tailwinds such as better marketing and innovation, while headwinds include increased trade and competitive pressures [19][20] Question: How is the company addressing innovation in the food space? - Management noted that new product innovation is increasing but still lags behind pre-pandemic levels, with plans to support successful innovations more robustly [30][31] Question: What is the strategy for the snacks business? - The company is focusing on value adjustments and marketing improvements to enhance the performance of its snacks portfolio [60][61] Question: How does the company assess consumer willingness to pay for healthier ingredients? - Management believes that consumers are still willing to pay for quality, but value perception is critical in the current environment [70][71]

Financial Performance - In Q3 fiscal 2025, net sales decreased by 5% to $4,842.2 million, with organic net sales also down by 5% compared to the same period last year[92][96][93]. - Operating profit decreased by 2% to $891 million, with an operating profit margin of 18.4%, which is an increase of 50 basis points[92][93]. - Diluted earnings per share fell by 4% to $1.12, while adjusted diluted earnings per share decreased by 15% on a constant-currency basis to $1.00[92][93]. - For the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, net sales were $14,930.4 million, a decrease of 1% compared to the same period last year[110][111]. - Operating profit for the nine-month period increased by 6% to $2,800.8 million, with an operating profit margin of 18.8%, up 130 basis points[109][110]. - Segment operating profit decreased 20 percent to $102 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, compared to $128 million in Q3 fiscal 2024, primarily due to higher SG&A expenses and input costs[149]. - Adjusted operating profit for the quarter ended February 23, 2025, was $800.8 million, representing a margin of 16.5%[194]. - For the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, adjusted operating profit was $2,730.1 million, with a margin of 18.3%[194]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - North America Retail net sales decreased 7% to $3,009.1 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 compared to $3,242.1 million in the same period last year[125]. - International net sales decreased 4% to $651.3 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 compared to $680.1 million in the same period last year[135]. - North America Pet net sales were flat at $623.7 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 compared to $624.5 million in the same period last year[143]. - North America Foodservice net sales increased 1 percent to $555.3 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, driven by favorable net price realization, partially offset by a decrease in volume growth contributions[151]. - North America Foodservice net sales increased 3 percent to $1,721.5 million in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, compared to $1,669.7 million in the same period in fiscal 2024, driven by volume growth and favorable net price realization[153]. Expenses and Costs - SG&A expenses increased by $91 million to $2,552 million in the nine-month period, with SG&A as a percentage of net sales rising by 90 basis points[116]. - Cost of sales decreased by $228 million to $9,671 million in the nine-month period, primarily due to lower volume and product rate and mix[115]. - The company recorded $56 million in unallocated corporate expenses in Q3 fiscal 2025, down from $64 million in the same period in fiscal 2024, reflecting a decrease in certain compensation and benefit-related expenses[160]. Tax and Earnings - The effective tax rate for Q3 fiscal 2025 was 19.8%, up from 18.5% in the same period last year[104][105]. - After-tax earnings from joint ventures decreased to $14 million in Q3 fiscal 2025, down from $18 million in the same period last year[106]. - After-tax earnings from joint ventures decreased to $64 million in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, down from $66 million in the same period last year[121]. - The effective tax rate increased to 20.5% in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, compared to 19.5% in the same period last year[120]. - Adjusted effective income tax rate for the quarter ended February 23, 2025, was reported at 21.0%[212]. Divestitures and Gains - A divestiture gain of $96 million was recorded in Q3 fiscal 2025 related to the sale of the Canada yogurt business[101]. - Divestiture gain of $96 million related to the sale of the Canada yogurt business in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025[117]. - The company reported a divestiture gain related to the sale of its Canada yogurt business in fiscal 2025[182]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash provided by operations was $2,307 million in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, compared to $2,439 million in the same period last year, reflecting a $132 million decrease[162]. - Cash used by investing activities was $1,579 million in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, compared to $508 million in the same period in fiscal 2024, including the acquisition of Whitebridge Pet Brands for $1,410 million[163]. - Cash used by financing activities was $610 million in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, compared to $1,928 million in the same period in fiscal 2024, with $902 million spent on common stock purchases[164]. Debt and Financial Position - The company had $1,941 million of long-term debt maturing in the next 12 months, including $800 million of fixed-rate notes due April 17, 2025[168]. - As of February 23, 2025, the company had $404 million of cash and cash equivalents in foreign jurisdictions, with plans to repatriate funds without incurring further U.S. income tax liability[165]. Regulatory Changes - The FASB issued ASU 2023-09 requiring enhanced income tax disclosures effective for fiscal 2026, with early adoption permitted[176]. - ASU 2023-07 mandates enhanced segment disclosures effective for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026, with retrospective application required[177]. Segment Performance - International segment operating profit decreased 39% to $63 million in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, compared to $103 million in the same period last year[142]. - North America Retail organic net sales decreased 2% in the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025, compared to the same period in fiscal 2024[130]. - North America Retail segment's operating profit declined by 14% for the quarter ended February 23, 2025, with no impact from foreign currency exchange[210]. - North America Pet segment's operating profit dropped by 20% for the quarter ended February 23, 2025, with no foreign currency impact[210]. - North America Foodservice segment's operating profit increased by 1% for the quarter ended February 23, 2025, with no foreign currency impact[210]. - The North America Pet segment showed a 6% increase in operating profit for the nine-month period ended February 23, 2025[210].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on accelerating organic growth with a target of at least 5% HMM savings and an additional $100 million in cost savings for fiscal 2026 [5][6] - Consumer confidence indices indicate that consumer confidence is currently below levels seen three months ago and is comparable to 2008 [8][9] - The company expects to reinvest savings and efficiencies to return to growth, with a focus on improving competitiveness starting in the fourth quarter [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is stepping up investments in pricing and marketing, particularly in the fruit snacks category, where consumers are seeking value [13][14] - New product innovations are being emphasized, with successful launches like Cheerios Protein and Nature Valley Granola Protein [31][32] - The company is experiencing challenges in the fruit snacks category due to increased competition and the introduction of private labels by major retailers [60][61] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The snacks category is facing a negative gap compared to previous performance, attributed to decreased consumer confidence and increased value-seeking behavior [49][50] - The company notes that food-at-home consumption has increased from 83% to 87% of occasions, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards staples over discretionary items [52][55] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on fewer but larger innovations in the upcoming fiscal year, aiming to support successful new products more robustly [32][33] - There is a commitment to improving marketing effectiveness across core brands and new product innovations [85][86] - The company is also addressing the need for better pricing strategies to align with consumer expectations and market conditions [41][42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that the consumer environment has not improved as expected, with consumers increasingly seeking value [7][8] - The company is optimistic about returning to growth, particularly in the cereal and soup categories, due to increased marketing and improved product offerings [93][94] - Management emphasizes the importance of understanding brand-specific needs and being agile in response to changing market conditions [45][46] Other Important Information - The company is facing a significant headwind from Yoplait, which is expected to impact profits by about 5 points [23][24] - There is a focus on building flexibility for additional investments in the upcoming fiscal year to drive growth [25][82] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the incremental investment needed for fiscal 2026? - Management indicated that the consumer environment has not improved as anticipated, leading to a focus on value and effective marketing strategies [7][8] Question: Can you outline the tailwinds and headwinds for next year? - Management acknowledged both tailwinds such as improved marketing and innovation, and headwinds including increased trade and competitive pressures [19][20] Question: How does the company plan to address innovation in the food space? - Management noted that while innovation in the packaged food category has not fully recovered to pre-COVID levels, the company is ramping up its innovation efforts [27][28] Question: What is the outlook for the cereal category? - Management expressed confidence in improving cereal performance in the fourth quarter due to increased media support and effective promotions [93][94] Question: What drove the unexpected retailer inventory headwinds? - Management explained that the inventory issues were primarily seen in the pet category and were influenced by the volatility of retailer inventory levels [98][99]