瑞银预计2025年和2026年全球铜需求将分别增长2.8%。推动增长的因素包括电动汽车的普及、对可再 生能源的投资、电网扩建以及数据中心的蓬勃发展。电动汽车、高压输电线路、风能和太阳能发电厂以 及数据基础设施都需要大量铜，因此铜被视为脱碳的关键工业材料。 嘉能可首席执行官曾指出，到2050年，全球铜供应每年需要增加100万吨才能满足预期需求，因此嘉能 可的增产有助于填补这一巨大缺口。 嘉能可的大部分新增产量要到2026年后才开始逐步释放，特别是像Alumbrera这样的重启项目，预计 2026年底才能首次生产。这意味着在未来一到两年内，市场仍将主要面对当前的供应紧张局面。 嘉能可公司表示，未来十年，该公司计划到2035年将铜年产量提高至约160万吨，以扭转其铜产量下滑 的局面。嘉能可此举正值全球矿商纷纷加紧生产铜材之际，但该公司自身的铜产量却将连续第四年下 滑。该公司今年的铜产量预计将比2018年减少约40%。嘉能可还再次明确了一项计划，即到2028年将铜 产量提高至100万吨，并表示将重启Alumbrera矿作为这一计划的一部分。 目前，嘉能可预计2025年的铜产量指引范围在85万至87.5万吨之间。虽然近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to restart the Alumbrera copper mine in Q4 2026, with production expected to begin in H1 2028 [1] Company Summary - The Alumbrera copper mine is set to resume operations, indicating a strategic move to enhance copper production capabilities [1] Industry Summary - The restart of the Alumbrera copper mine aligns with the growing demand for copper in various industries, potentially impacting market dynamics positively [1]

格隆汇12月3日｜嘉能可伦敦股价迅速上涨，现涨4.7%。 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - International copper prices have reached new highs, with London copper futures reported at $11,197.5 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 27.5% [1] - The initial driver for the price increase is a tightening supply due to operational disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is one of the largest copper-gold mines globally, producing 1.7 billion pounds of copper annually [1] - The expected recovery of the Grasberg mine is projected for the first half of 2026, indicating a significant short-term capacity gap in the international copper market [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - The construction boom of data centers and the growing demand from the renewable energy sector and grid upgrades are further increasing the demand for copper [1] - Several analysis firms have raised their projections for refined copper shortages by 2026 to between 300,000 to 400,000 tons [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and a weaker dollar, is exerting upward pressure on copper prices [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The inclusion of copper in the U.S. critical minerals list has led to increased arbitrage activities, concentrating inventories in the U.S. and tightening non-U.S. markets [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that copper prices are forming a self-reinforcing upward mechanism characterized by "inventory drawdown—spread widening—accelerated stockpiling," which is expected to keep prices high next year [2] Group 5: Price Forecasts - Major Wall Street institutions have raised their copper price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices between $10,000 to $11,000 per ton next year, while JPMorgan and Citigroup are more optimistic, forecasting prices to exceed $12,000 per ton [3] - UBS estimates that copper prices could rise to $13,000 per ton by the end of 2026, and Bank of America anticipates prices to surpass $13,500 per ton by 2027 [3] Group 6: Industry Developments - Glencore and Teck Resources are involved in a significant copper deal, proposing a merger between the Quebrada Blanca mine and the larger Collahuasi mine in northern Chile, which would create one of the world's major copper mining operations [4]

Group 1: Availability Paradox and Market Dynamics - Deutsche Bank warns that Pop Mart is facing an "Availability Paradox" as its production capacity aggressively expands to 50 million units per month by year-end, leading to Labubu transitioning from a scarce trendy IP to a mass consumer product, which may signal a decline in popularity for trend-driven toys [1] - If Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026 without new hit products, valuation pressure on Pop Mart will increase significantly [1] Group 2: Copper Market Supply and Price Forecast - Deutsche Bank indicates that the global copper market is experiencing a supply squeeze, with severe supply disruptions pushing copper prices close to historical highs [3] - The report predicts a decline in mine supply by 2025, with only a 1% rebound expected the following year, resulting in a "clear deficit" in the market [3] - As a result, Deutsche Bank raises its copper price forecast for 2026 to $10,600 per ton, with potential peaks exceeding $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 [3][6] Group 3: Key Company Updates and Investment Focus - Glencore is set to hold its first Capital Markets Day (CMD) in two years, aiming to restore market confidence in its operational capabilities, while Rio Tinto focuses on business simplification and capital discipline [4][9] - Deutsche Bank lists Anglo Teck, Glencore, and Freeport as preferred stocks, adjusting ratings for Boliden to "Buy" and First Quantum to "Hold" [7] - Glencore's CMD on December 3 is highly anticipated, with expectations that it will provide guidance on copper production and capital expenditures, while also addressing potential M&A discussions [8] Group 4: Rio Tinto's Strategic Focus - Rio Tinto's CMD on December 4 is expected to emphasize capital discipline, business simplification, and divestment of non-core assets, with a projected annual capital expenditure guidance of $10-11 billion [10] - The market will closely monitor production guidance for the Simandou project, amid concerns of potential oversupply [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented a new quota management system for cobalt exports, setting annual export limits for 2026 and 2027 at 96,600 tons each, primarily allocated to companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Glencore, while local smelters receive no direct quotas [1][2]. Group 1: Cobalt Quota and Supply - The new quota system replaces the previous cobalt export ban, with 87,000 tons designated as basic quotas and 9,600 tons as ARECOMS strategic quotas [2]. - The global cobalt raw material supply is expected to decrease significantly, with projections indicating a supply of only 200,000 tons by 2025, while global cobalt consumption is anticipated to reach 221,000 tons and 231,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a rigid shortage [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Price Dynamics - The inventory of cobalt products is continuously depleting, with China's cobalt chloride inventory days dropping from 46 days in April to 39 days currently, and the inventory of intermediate products at downstream smelters decreasing from 45,000 tons to 17,000 tons over five months [4]. - Cobalt product prices are currently inverted, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, a 306% increase, indicating potential for further price adjustments as raw material inventories are consumed [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement tender, marking the first large-scale cobalt purchase by the U.S. since the Cold War, with awards expected in early February 2026 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Glencore PLC (GLNCY) shares have recently declined by 7.9% over the past week, but the formation of a hammer chart pattern suggests potential support and a possible trend reversal in the future [1] Technical Analysis - The hammer pattern indicates a potential bottoming out, with selling pressure likely subsiding, which supports a bullish outlook for the stock [2] - A hammer chart pattern is characterized by a small candle body and a long lower wick, indicating that despite a downtrend, buying interest has emerged to push the stock price up towards the opening price [4][5] - The effectiveness of the hammer pattern is contingent on its placement on the chart and should be used alongside other bullish indicators for confirmation [6] Fundamental Analysis - There has been a recent upward trend in earnings estimate revisions for GLNCY, which is a bullish indicator as it typically leads to price appreciation [7] - The consensus EPS estimate for GLNCY has increased by 5.2% over the last 30 days, reflecting strong agreement among Wall Street analysts regarding the company's improved earnings potential [8] - GLNCY holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, indicating a favorable outlook for performance compared to the market [9] - The Zacks Rank serves as a timing indicator, suggesting that the company's prospects are beginning to improve, further supporting the potential for a turnaround [10]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has reduced its stake in Century Aluminum by 10% to 33%, benefiting from increased profits in local aluminum smelting due to U.S. import tariffs on aluminum, resulting in several million dollars in gains [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is the largest shareholder of Century Aluminum and supplies alumina to the company while purchasing nearly all of its North American aluminum products for U.S. customers [1] - The reduction in Glencore's stake comes after the U.S. government raised aluminum import tariffs to 50% on June 4, aimed at encouraging domestic aluminum production [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Century Aluminum is the largest primary aluminum producer in the U.S., with a production of 690,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [1] - According to Trade Data Monitor, U.S. aluminum imports are projected to be 3.94 million tons in 2024, indicating a significant market size [1] - Producers must ensure that their product prices cover the tariffs to continue shipping aluminum to the U.S. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation International Industrial Group Limited, the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, has launched its Hong Kong IPO, attracting significant backing from top global investors, signaling a positive trend for the recovering Hong Kong IPO market [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - The company aims to raise up to HKD 5.5 billion (approximately USD 707 million) through the IPO, which has garnered commitments from cornerstone investors including Glencore, Hillhouse Capital, and Millennium Management, who have agreed to subscribe to about USD 336 million worth of shares, nearly half of the maximum fundraising amount [1][2]. - The IPO price range is set between HKD 10.18 and HKD 10.99 per share, with the listing expected on November 24 [2]. Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately half of the net proceeds from the IPO will be allocated for overseas expansion, while the remaining funds will be used for green energy projects, working capital, and general corporate purposes [2]. Group 3: Business Model and Performance - Innovation International focuses on the upstream aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting, with a significant cost advantage due to its strategic locations in Inner Mongolia and Shandong [3]. - The company achieved an alumina self-sufficiency rate of 84% and an electricity self-sufficiency rate of 88% in 2024, well above industry averages [3]. - From 2022 to 2024, the company's net profit increased from RMB 913 million to RMB 2.63 billion, although it faced a 14.4% decline in net profit to RMB 856 million in the first five months of 2025 due to rising coal prices [3]. Group 4: Customer Dependency - Innovation International has a significant reliance on a single major customer, Innovation New Materials, which accounted for 78.8% and 76.6% of its total revenue in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4]. - The revenue from the top five customers represented 86.6% of total revenue in 2024, significantly higher than peers like Tianshan Aluminum and Yun Aluminum [4]. Group 5: Corporate Structure - Prior to the IPO, the company underwent internal restructuring, with its chairman, Cui Lixin, holding 100% of the shares through Bloomsbury Holding before the IPO, and is expected to retain about 75% post-listing [5].