Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) - Alphabet's capital expenditure guidance ranges between $91 billion and $93 billion, aligning with Microsoft and Amazon's spending levels in the cloud sector [1] - Alphabet has capital expenditure commitments of around $100 billion [2] Revenue Performance - Search and other revenue reached $56.57 billion, exceeding estimates of $55.1 billion [3] - YouTube revenue for Q3 beat estimates at $10.26 billion versus the expected $10.01 billion [4] - Cloud revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $15.16 billion [4] - Other bets revenue, including Waymo, missed estimates at $344 million versus $433.1 million [3] Key Metrics & Competition - Alphabet's Gemini app has 600 to 650 million monthly active users, compared to OpenAI's ChatGPT with 800 million [2] - Alphabet's backlog number, a future revenue indicator, is coming in at $155 billion [2]

Market Overview - Major stock indexes showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by nearly 0.2% to 47,632, the S&P 500 remaining steady at 6,890.59, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.55% to 23,958.47 [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the cessation of its securities holdings runoff starting December 1, marking the end of its quantitative tightening program. This decision was made amid slowing job growth, moderate economic expansion, and persistent inflation pressures, with two dissenting votes [2] Meta Platforms Inc. - Meta's stock saw a slight increase of 0.03%, closing at $751.67, but dropped over 7% in after-hours trading to $696.30. The stock's intraday high was $759.16 and low was $742.51, with a 52-week range of $796.25 to $479.80 [3][4] - The company reported third-quarter revenue of $51.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, and adjusted earnings per share of $7.25. A one-time, non-cash income tax charge of $15.93 billion was included in the earnings report. CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasized strong performance in AI and wearable technology, with significant investments planned [4] Alphabet Inc. - Alphabet Class C shares increased by 2.51% to close at $275.17, with after-hours trading rising 6.73% to $293.69. Class A shares gained 2.65% to $274.57, also rising 6.72% in after-hours trading to $293.01 [5] - The company reported third-quarter revenue of $102.35 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, with earnings of $2.87 per share. Growth was driven by Search, YouTube, and Cloud services, while CEO Sundar Pichai noted rapid AI adoption and 650 million users for Gemini. However, the company anticipates higher capital spending in 2025 [6] Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. - Chipotle's stock decreased by 1.24% to close at $39.76, falling 16.5% in after-hours trading to $33.19. The stock's intraday high was $40.65 and low was $39.59, with a 52-week range of $66.74 to $38.30 [7][8] - The company reported third-quarter earnings of $0.29 per share, matching estimates, but revenue of $3 billion slightly missed expectations of $3.02 billion. Comparable restaurant sales and margins saw a modest decline, and the company opened 84 new locations [8] Microsoft Corporation - Microsoft's stock experienced a slight decrease of 0.10%, closing at $541.55, and fell nearly 4% in after-hours trading to $519.99. The stock's intraday high was $546.27 and low was $536.73, with a 52-week range of $555.45 to $344.79 [9][10] - The company reported first-quarter revenue of $77.7 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, with earnings of $4.13 per share, surpassing the Street's estimate of $3.67. Growth was attributed to strong cloud and AI performance, including a 40% increase in Azure revenue [10] Starbucks Corporation - Starbucks' stock decreased by 1.47%, closing at $84.17, with after-hours trading showing a 1.8% increase. The stock's intraday high was $84.89 and low was $83.28, with a 52-week range of $117.46 to $75.50 [11] - The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $9.57 billion, exceeding estimates, while adjusted earnings of $0.52 per share fell short of the $0.56 estimates. Global comparable store sales rose by 1%, with international growth offsetting flat North American sales [11]

Core Insights - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures to support AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to the future of AI [1][4] - Despite varied stock market reactions, the common theme across earnings reports is the surge in capital expenditures, reflecting intense competition in AI and cloud computing [1][4] Group 1: Google and Meta - Alphabet has raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to between $91 billion and $93 billion, up from a previous estimate of $85 billion, with a significant increase expected in 2026 [2] - Meta has also increased its 2025 capital expenditure guidance from $66 billion-$72 billion to $70 billion-$72 billion, with a notable increase in 2026 spending anticipated [2] - Both companies are responding to strong demand in their cloud businesses, with Google's backlog growing by 46% to $155 billion [2] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft reported a record capital expenditure of $34.9 billion for the recently ended fiscal quarter, exceeding market expectations of $30 billion [3] - The significant spending reflects Microsoft's commitment to meet accelerating demand, although it has not positively impacted its stock price [3] - Concerns have arisen regarding whether the demand for AI and cloud computing has outstripped Microsoft's supply capabilities [3] Group 3: Opportunities and Risks - The substantial investments by tech giants illustrate a growing customer demand for AI, evidenced by Google's 32% year-over-year revenue growth in its cloud segment [4] - However, there are rising concerns about the sensitivity of the market to costs, as seen in the stock reactions of Meta and Microsoft [4] - Investors are closely monitoring how long it will take for these large-scale AI investments to translate into significant profits, highlighting a balance between long-term growth and immediate cost pressures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current AI trend is not a bubble but a genuine and long-term productivity revolution, as stated by Coatue in their latest secondary market report [1][2]. Market Analysis - The AI sector has been a core driver of growth in the U.S. stock market since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, with AI-related companies in the S&P 500 achieving a return of 165% over nearly three years, significantly outperforming the overall index return of 68% and the 24% return of non-AI companies [3]. - The growth of AI has expanded beyond the "Mag 7" companies, with AI-related returns in 2025 exceeding those of the Mag 7 for the first time, indicating a broader market penetration [6][8]. Sector Performance - AI sectors such as energy, semiconductors, and software have shown returns significantly higher than the Mag 7, with AI energy achieving a 53% return in 2025 YTD, three times that of the Mag 7 [8][12]. - The AI industry's growth is transitioning from being driven solely by algorithmic breakthroughs to include innovations in energy supply, semiconductor manufacturing, and data infrastructure [12]. Consumer Resilience - Strong consumer fundamentals have alleviated concerns about economic recession, providing crucial support for corporate earnings and financial assets [13]. Historical Context - Historical analysis indicates a 48% probability of continued market growth in 2026, based on past performance of the S&P 500 after three consecutive years of growth [15]. - Long-term holding strategies are emphasized, as premature selling during periods of high growth can lead to significant opportunity costs [18][20]. AI Bubble Characteristics - Coatue defines a bubble as a state where asset prices significantly exceed intrinsic value, driven by speculation and investor behavior. The current AI investment trend resembles characteristics of both stock market and infrastructure bubbles [21][25]. AI Adoption Concerns - Market skepticism regarding AI includes concerns about inflation, high valuations, concentration of AI winners, and capital expenditures. However, Coatue counters these concerns with data showing a decline in inflation expectations and a sustainable growth trajectory for AI companies [31][35][41][52]. AI Profitability Framework - Coatue outlines a profitability framework for AI, highlighting both direct and indirect benefits, such as revenue increases from AI products and cost savings from operational efficiencies [89]. - The potential for AI revenues to grow tenfold in the next 5-10 years, reaching $1 trillion in profits, is projected, with AI expected to account for 4% of global corporate profits [98]. Market Signals - Current IPO activity and leverage levels indicate that the equity market is not exhibiting bubble-like characteristics, although high retail investor leverage poses potential risks [102][106]. AI Infrastructure Focus - The AI infrastructure sector has outperformed software sectors since the launch of ChatGPT, with significant returns in semiconductor indices compared to cloud software indices [107][109]. - The rise of AI applications is also noted, with several private AI application companies achieving valuations exceeding $5 billion, indicating a shift towards scalable AI solutions [111]. Investment Principles - Coatue emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies in AI, advising against premature selling and highlighting the need to monitor private market dynamics for early signs of industry changes [124][125].

29 October 2025 | 4:35PM EDT Equity Research Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Q3'25 Earnings First Take We expect the market to have a positive reaction to Alphabet's Q3'25 earnings report based upon our first read/analysis of the results. Some highlights – both Search and Other and YouTube revenues exceeded our forecasts by ~2% and Google Cloud revenue exceeded our above Street estimate and grew +34% YoY. Continuing with the AI themes, Alphabet raised its 2025 capex forecasts from ~$85bn to $91-93bn and announced a ...

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ________________________________________________________________________________________ FORM 10-Q _______________________________________________________________________________________ (Mark One) ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the ...

In earlier trading, stocks rose and then added to gains after the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected, and said it will restart limited purchases of Treasury securities. Fed policymakers also noted the limits in their decision-making process due to the U.S. federal government shutdown. The Fed lowered the overnight benchmark rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the second time the U.S. central bank eased this year. After Powell spoke, traders pared bets on a December ...

Group 1 - Amazon announced a sudden layoff of 14,000 employees in its corporate division to streamline management and increase investment in AI strategies, marking its second-largest layoff since 2022 [4][5] - The layoffs were communicated via an internal email that was sent out abruptly, with employees receiving notifications shortly after, indicating a shift in Amazon's approach to workforce management [4][5] - Compensation rumors for the laid-off employees include various unverified models, such as "N+3/4+2 months buffer" or "N+6+ an additional week of salary for every six weeks worked" [5] Group 2 - Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, ranked fifth on the 2025 Hurun Rich List with a wealth increase of 196 billion yuan, a 151% rise from the previous year, attributed to the explosive growth of Xiaomi's automotive business and high-end smartphone sales [7][8] - The significant increase in wealth positions Lei Jun as the highest wealth gainer among entrepreneurs in the list, highlighting Xiaomi's successful global smartphone sales and IoT device performance [8] Group 3 - Tencent Music dismissed two executives due to corruption allegations, with one being accused of accepting bribes from gaming partners, leading to their transfer to law enforcement [12] - The internal investigation revealed that the dismissed executives had engaged in improper financial dealings during their tenure, raising concerns about corporate governance within Tencent Music [12] Group 4 - Douyin's internal response to rumors regarding JD's alleged "choose one of two" policy during the Double Eleven shopping festival indicates that JD's pricing strategies may limit merchants' operational freedom on other platforms [10][11] - JD's insistence that it is not engaging in "choose one of two" practices contrasts with Douyin's claims, suggesting ongoing tensions in the competitive e-commerce landscape [10][11] Group 5 - Nvidia became the first publicly traded company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, achieving this milestone in just 113 days, significantly faster than previous milestones [33] - The company's stock has rebounded over 135% since its low in April, with expectations of generating $500 billion in revenue in upcoming quarters, exceeding market forecasts [33] Group 6 - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella revealed that the initial $1 billion investment in OpenAI was viewed as a high-risk decision, with concerns from Bill Gates about potential losses [30] - The total investment in OpenAI has since exceeded $13 billion, reflecting Microsoft's commitment to AI despite initial skepticism [30]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent earnings reports of major tech companies, highlighting that Microsoft’s stock decline was unexpected due to high expectations for Azure [1] - Google exceeded expectations with a 34% increase in gross margin and a remarkable 14% growth in search revenue [2] Group 1: Google’s Competitive Advantage - Google has achieved significant advantages through integration of large models, cloud services, and ASIC technology, particularly during a surge in demand for inference since Q4 of last year [3] - The integration strategy aims to lower costs and increase market share, which has been a consistent theme in the development of mining chips [4] Group 2: Future Revenue Projections - Google’s API revenue is projected to double to $3 billion, with expectations to reach $6 billion next year, indicating strong growth in enterprise-level AI revenue [6] - The company’s path is being closely studied by competitors, with Alibaba and Microsoft also looking to develop similar integrated models and ASIC technologies [5]

Financial Performance - Alphabet 第三季度营收首次突破 1000 亿美元大关 [1] - Alphabet 第三季度业绩超过华尔街预期 [1]