荷兰国际：欧元涨势可能仍然有限 金十数据5月14日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中称，受周二公布的低于预期的 美国通胀数据影响，欧元兑美元有所上涨，但进一步升值的空间可能有限。在市场预期美国经济数据将 继续疲软的背景下，投资者可能会继续押注美元走弱。然而，由于欧洲央行仍在持续降息，欧元"并未 处于一个特别有利的位置"以从这一趋势中受益。此外，在市场风险偏好改善的情况下，投资者更倾向 于转向高风险货币，而不是欧元。 ...

Core Insights - If the core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky in April, the dollar may receive some support [1] - This situation would bolster the narrative that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates [1] - The market has reduced bets on rate cuts, pushing expectations for the next cut to September [1] Inflation Data - Economists expect the core inflation rate in April to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, which is higher than the 0.1% increase in March [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, citing a robust economic expansion and a stable labor market, while acknowledging increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and rising risks of unemployment and inflation [2][3] - ING suggests that the Fed's "wait-and-see" approach may continue for several policy meetings, as officials assess the impact of government trade policies on inflation amidst a strong labor market [3][4] - Consumer and business confidence has plummeted to levels consistent with historical recessions, raising concerns for the Fed, which may lead to a delayed but potentially larger rate cut later in the year [4][5] Group 2 - The market reacted to the Fed's announcement with a slight decline in interest rates and a steepening yield curve, indicating readiness to address rising unemployment while tolerating inflation risks [5][6] - There were no substantial comments regarding the balance sheet reduction process, with the Fed maintaining a net buying position in government bonds, while the monthly cap for mortgage-backed securities remains at $35 billion [5][6] - The foreign exchange market showed limited reaction to the Fed's statements, with the dollar weakening slightly, influenced more by concerns over rising unemployment and inflation rather than a clear hawkish or dovish stance from the Fed [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The need for significant progress in tariff negotiations is essential to improve the outlook for crude oil demand [1] Group 1: Oil Market Sentiment - Analysts from ING indicate that news regarding tariff trade negotiations has driven Brent crude oil prices higher, continuing the rebound from the previous day [1] - The sentiment in the oil market is expected to improve with the ongoing negotiations, but tangible progress in reducing tariffs is necessary for a more favorable demand outlook [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of conflict between India and Pakistan, with India launching military strikes and Pakistan claiming to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, has also contributed to supporting oil prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar has potential for recovery due to a shift in the Trump administration's focus from threats and large-scale tariffs to trade agreement negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the Norwegian krone is expected to be limited despite potential interest rate cuts by the Norwegian central bank, as indicated by analysts from ING [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Economic Outlook** - The Norwegian central bank may signal an imminent interest rate cut in its upcoming meeting, which could lead to temporary negative impacts on the krone [1] - Increasing economic growth risks suggest that the central bank is likely preparing for a rate cut in June, potentially hindering the recovery of the krone [1] - **Currency Forecast** - The EUR/NOK exchange rate is anticipated to remain within the range of 11.70 to 11.80 for some time [1] - Given the significant exchange rate advantage of the krone and the overbought status of the euro, the EUR/NOK is expected to trend downward [1] - The target set by ING is for the EUR/NOK to decline to 11.50 by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's journey into investing, starting in high school in 2011, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, indicating a long-standing interest in markets and the economy [1] - The author has recently adopted a strategy that combines long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts, emphasizing a fundamental long-term investment approach [1] - The author primarily covers REITs and financials on Seeking Alpha, with occasional articles on ETFs and other stocks influenced by macro trade ideas [1]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: ING Groep - ING Groep currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong potential for momentum investing [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which historically outperforms the market when combined with a Style Score of A or B [4] Price Performance - Over the past week, ING shares increased by 2.84%, while the Zacks Banks - Foreign industry rose by 3.61% [6] - In the last month, ING's price change was 1.53%, compared to the industry's 5.15% [6] - Over the past quarter, ING shares have risen by 17.12%, and by 13.14% over the last year, while the S&P 500 has moved -6.91% and 13.12%, respectively [7] Trading Volume - ING's average 20-day trading volume is 3,177,483 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, two earnings estimates for ING have increased, raising the consensus estimate from $2.12 to $2.30 [10] - For the next fiscal year, one estimate has moved upwards with no downward revisions [10] Conclusion - Given the strong performance metrics and positive earnings outlook, ING Groep is positioned as a strong momentum pick for investors [12]

Group 1: Market Performance - Dow futures rose by 0.41%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures gained 0.14% [1] - Popular Chinese stocks mostly saw gains, with XPeng up over 6%, Alibaba rising more than 4%, and NIO, Li Auto, and JD.com all increasing over 3% [1] Group 2: Company Earnings and Forecasts - Apple reported Q2 revenue of $95.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $94.66 billion, but faced a projected $900 million increase in costs due to tariffs, leading to a 2.78% drop in stock price [1] - Amazon's Q1 earnings surpassed expectations, but the company provided a weak outlook for Q2, estimating revenue between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, below the consensus of $17.64 billion, resulting in a 2.25% decline in stock price [1] - Shell's Q1 adjusted profit was $5.58 billion, exceeding the expected $5.09 billion, and announced a $3.5 billion stock buyback, leading to a 3.33% increase in stock price [2] - McDonald's reported a 3.6% decline in U.S. same-store sales, the largest drop since Q2 2020, which was worse than the anticipated 1.7% decline [2] - General Motors updated its financial guidance, citing potential tariff impacts of up to $5 billion, lowering its adjusted EBIT forecast to a range of $8.2 billion to $10 billion, down from $11 billion to $12 billion [2] Group 3: Banking Sector - ING reported a strong Q1 performance with a net profit of €1.46 billion, surpassing the market expectation of €1.4 billion, and announced a €2 billion stock buyback, resulting in a 4.67% increase in stock price [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the U.S. dollar has recovered some of its recent losses due to news of potential reductions in auto tariffs by the Trump administration [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Impact of Tariff Reductions** - Analysts suggest that the Trump administration plans to ease tariffs on foreign auto parts and prevent additional tariffs on foreign-made cars from compounding existing tariffs [1] - **Economic Implications** - Evidence is emerging that tariffs have already caused damage to the U.S. economy, which may influence the dollar's performance moving forward [1] - **Market Outlook** - Overall, the risk for the dollar this week is tilted towards the downside, reflecting ongoing concerns about tariff impacts [1]