各类资产行情与基本面分析 受此不确定性驱动，现货黄金在周二上演了绝地反击，日内狂飙超6%，创下自2008年金融危机以来的 最大单日涨幅。亚市早盘金价企稳于4974美元附近，坚挺的基本面与"沃什冲击"引发的空头回补形成了 强大的共振。 1. 美股市场 指数表现 个股焦点 英特尔 (INTC)： 报 49.25 美元，上涨 0.90%。存储板块与复苏逻辑支撑其日内逆市走强。 2. 外汇市场 3. 贵金属与大宗商品 2026年2月4日，全球金融市场在特朗普政府的一则重磅提名下再度陷入剧烈波动。随着提名偏向"鹰 派"的凯文·沃什接替即将卸任的鲍威尔，市场对于美联储未来政策路径的确定性发生动摇。尽管美国1 月制造业PMI回升至52.6，创下近三年半以来新高，彰显出内需的强韧与扩张，但美元指数却诡异地在 周二下跌0.12%至97.42，终结了此前1.5%的强劲涨势。这种异动，反映出投资者在联储人事更迭之际， 对长期货币政策透明度的担忧已压倒了短期经济数据的支撑。 贵金属 大宗商品 WTI 原油 (XTIUSD)： 报 63.88 美元/桶，下跌 0.09%。地缘政治风险溢价快速回吐，油价回撤至 64 美元下方寻底。 4. ...

英特尔宣布将开始制造图形处理器(GPU)，正式进军这一由英伟达主导的芯片市场。这标志着这家传统 CPU巨头在新任CEO领导下的重大战略扩张，目标直指利润丰厚的数据中心AI芯片业务。 瞄准数据中心GPU，直面英伟达主场 据路透与TechCrunch，Lip-Bu Tan明确将GPU目标指向数据中心市场。相较英特尔长期主导的CPU， GPU更偏向特定工作负载，常用于游戏以及训练人工智能模型等任务，而这正是英伟达最核心的业务优 势。 据TechCrunch与路透，Eric Demmers已于1月加入英特尔。TechCrunch称，Eric Demmers此前在 Qualcomm任职超过13年，最近的职位为工程高级副总裁。 据路透，英特尔CEO Lip-Bu Tan周二在Cisco AI Summit上表示，公司计划制造图形处理器GPU，并称已 聘请高通资深高管Eric Demmers担任GPU首席架构师。 Lip-Bu Tan对路透表示，英特尔将先与客户一起工作，再定义客户需要什么，显示其切入策略将以实际 部署需求为导向，而非先行给出固定产品路线。 先定客户需求再定产品策略，项目仍在早期阶段 Lip-Bu Tan在 ...

银河证券表示，模拟芯片行业供需关系或将迎来变化。数字芯片方面，以AI算力、国产CPU为代表的先 进设计领域表现强势，国产数字芯片自主可控仍将是长期方向。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 科创芯片设计ETF天弘（589070）具备20%的涨跌幅空间，该产品紧密跟踪上证科创板芯片设计主题指 数，指数聚焦于芯片设计核心环节，相关行业含量接近95%，行业集中度较高、"含芯量"突出，其成分 股涵盖50家科创板芯片领域龙头企业。 消息面上，据第一财经，英特尔首席执行官陈立武周二在思科人工智能峰会上表示，公司已任命新的首 席架构师全面推进图形处理器（GPU）研发，以把握人工智能数据中心需求快速增长带来的机遇。他表 示，人工智能算力需求激增，正显著推高对GPU和存储芯片的依赖，而当前席卷行业的存储芯片短缺已 成为AI发展面临的"最大挑战"，相关供需失衡预计要到2028年才可能缓解。 2月4日，三大指数涨跌不一，芯片方向走弱。上证科创板芯片设计主题指数(950162.SH)下跌2.91%，该 指数成分股中，国芯科技上涨超3%，盛科通信与灿芯股份上涨超1%，睿创微纳上涨近1%。 相关ETF方面，科创芯片设计ETF天弘（58907 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CPU market is experiencing structural differentiation rather than a uniform price increase, with consumer-grade CPUs remaining stable while server-grade CPUs may see short-term fluctuations due to demand from AI and high-performance computing applications [3][21]. Group 1: Price Trends - Recent reports indicate that major cloud service providers have significantly increased their purchases, leading Intel and AMD to plan a price increase of 10%-15% for server CPUs due to supply-demand imbalances [4][18]. - Despite rumors of price increases, consumer-grade CPU prices have remained largely unchanged since December, with some models only seeing minor increases [6][7]. - The price of server CPUs has shown variability, with different retailers offering different prices for the same model, such as the Intel Xeon 6530 processor, which is currently priced around 8300 yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The CPU market is currently characterized by a "differentiated" phase, with consumer-grade CPUs showing stable prices due to sufficient inventory and competitive market conditions [18]. - In contrast, server CPUs, particularly mid-to-high-end products, are experiencing longer delivery times and increased bargaining power for specific models, but this does not translate to widespread price increases [18][19]. - The demand for CPUs is expected to rise, particularly in the context of AI applications, with predictions of a potential price increase of around 15% in the near future [20][21]. Group 3: Industry Shifts - Many CPU vendors are shifting their focus to memory products due to the limited price changes in CPUs, indicating a trend towards higher profitability in the memory market [12][14][15]. - The overall market for storage products is currently very strong, with significant price increases reported for DRAM and NAND Flash, which may influence the CPU market indirectly [15]. - The role of CPUs is evolving in the AI era, transitioning from being mere computation providers to becoming central to system scheduling and general computing, with a focus on high concurrency and low latency products [21].

Core Viewpoint - The analyst believes that the investment opportunity in Intel Corporation has passed, maintaining a hold rating on the stock [1]. Company Summary - Intel Corporation is currently viewed as having missed a critical investment window, leading to a cautious stance from analysts [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst has a strong focus on the tech sector and holds a Bachelor of Commerce Degree with Distinction, majoring in Finance [1]. - The analyst is a lifetime member of the Beta Gamma Sigma International Business Honor Society, emphasizing values such as Excellence, Integrity, Transparency, and Respect [1].

Core Viewpoint - The opportunity window for Intel Corporation (INTC) has passed, leading to a reiterated hold rating on the stock [1]. Company Analysis - Intel Corporation is currently viewed as having missed a critical opportunity in the market, which affects its investment attractiveness [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst has a strong focus on the tech sector and holds a Bachelor of Commerce Degree with Distinction, majoring in Finance [1]. - The analyst is a lifetime member of the Beta Gamma Sigma International Business Honor Society, emphasizing values such as Excellence, Integrity, Transparency, and Respect [1].

Group 1 - Intel has appointed a new Chief Architect to lead its GPU business, amidst a significant shortage of memory chips expected to last at least two more years [1][2] - The demand for GPUs, essential for large language models, has surged as companies invest in AI infrastructure and data centers [1] - Intel has lagged behind major semiconductor firms like TSMC, but has seen a stock price rebound due to significant investments from the U.S. government, SoftBank, and Nvidia [1] Group 2 - CEO Chen stated that there are no signs of relief from the ongoing memory chip shortage, with expectations that it will not ease until at least 2028 [2] - UBS analysts noted a structural differentiation in the global memory industry, predicting meaningful supply relief will not occur until around 2028 [2] - The expansion of AI infrastructure is driving up demand for memory chips, which is constraining supply for traditional computers and smartphones, potentially affecting consumer purchasing behavior [2] Group 3 - Nvidia's latest Rubin platform and next-generation products are expected to further increase demand for memory chips, with AI anticipated to "consume" vast amounts of storage resources [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Global Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry, specifically the competition between Intel and TSMC regarding advanced packaging technologies for AI chips, particularly the Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge-T (EMIB-T) technology offered by Intel as an alternative to TSMC's CoWoS packaging method [2][12]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **EMIB-T Technology**: - EMIB-T is an enhanced version of Intel's existing EMIB technology, designed to support larger reticle sizes and provide a more cost-effective solution for AI chip packaging compared to TSMC's CoWoS [3][34]. - Intel claims EMIB-T can support reticle sizes of 8-12x by 2026-2027, compared to TSMC's current capabilities of 3.3x and future plans for 5.5x and 9.5x [3][34]. 2. **Financial Impact**: - If 1 million chips shift from CoWoS to EMIB-T, TSMC could face a revenue loss of approximately $1 billion, which is about 5-10% of its advanced packaging revenue in 2027, but only 0.5% of its total revenue [4][52]. - Conversely, Intel could see a revenue increase of high triple-digit millions, representing 1-2% of its revenue [4][51]. 3. **Market Positioning**: - Ibiden is highlighted as a strong player in the EMIB-T market, with expectations of increased revenue and margins due to the complexity of EMIB-T substrates [5][54]. - The substrate value for EMIB-T is projected to rise to approximately $300, significantly higher than previous generations [5][49]. 4. **Geopolitical Considerations**: - Intel's existing advanced packaging capacity in the U.S. provides a competitive edge, especially as TSMC plans to build new packaging fabs in Arizona, which may not be operational until 2028 [13][35]. 5. **Challenges for EMIB-T**: - The main challenges for EMIB-T include a lack of proven track record and potential lower production yields due to the complexity of embedding silicon bridges in the substrate [3][34]. Additional Important Content - **Customer Engagement**: Intel has indicated potential early customer engagements worth "north of a billion dollars" each, although this remains uncertain [4][51]. - **Future Developments**: Intel is also exploring advancements in 3.5D packaging, which combines EMIB with Foveros Direct technology, aiming to compete more effectively with TSMC's offerings [42][43]. - **Investment Ratings**: - Ibiden, TSMC, and MediaTek are rated as "Outperform," while Intel is rated as "Market-Perform" [8][9][10][11]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a significant shift with Intel's EMIB-T technology potentially challenging TSMC's dominance in advanced packaging for AI chips. The financial implications for both companies are substantial, with Ibiden positioned to benefit from this transition. However, challenges remain regarding production yields and the need for proven technology.

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 英特尔首席执行官陈立武周二表示，该公司计划生产图形处理器（GPU），这是英伟达推广的一种芯 片类别。 本月初，生产中断和供应问题掩盖了这家芯片制造商好于预期的季度业绩。投资者也一直希望该公司 能更明确其代工业务的核心客户。 "我刚刚聘请了首席GPU架构师，他非常优秀。我很高兴他能加入我的团队，"陈说道，并声称这费了 他一番功夫才说服他。 高通高管埃里克·德默斯上个月跳槽去了英特尔，这一消息最初由行业出版物 CRN 报道，后来德默斯 本人也在 LinkedIn 上证实了此事。 在思科人工智能峰会期间接受路透社采访时，陈立武表示，GPU 计划将瞄准数据中心，英伟达近年 来在该领域建立了庞大的业务，而德默斯将向英特尔数据中心芯片负责人凯沃尔克·凯奇奇安汇报工 作。 "这与数据中心息息相关，"陈立武告诉路透社。"我们正在与客户合作，然后确定客户的需求。" 陈立武在台上表示，"有几家客户正在积极与英特尔的芯片代工业务部门——英特尔晶圆代工（Intel Foundry）——开展合作"。在接受路透社采访时，他表示，这些客户对英特尔的14A制造技术很感兴 趣，预计今年晚些时候将 ...

另一方面，ZAM 的命名源于 Z 轴，这意味着芯片是垂直堆叠的。与传统 DRAM 相比，这种设计可 以实现更低的功耗、更大的容量和更宽的带宽。通过垂直堆叠芯片，每个芯片产生的热量可以均匀地 向上扩散，从而有望解决传统平面堆叠方式中存在的散热问题。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 日本内存制造商 SAIMEMORY 于 2 月 3 日在英特尔举办的"Intel Connection Japan 2026"活动上 首次公开亮相，介绍了其业务详情以及目前正在开发的新内存结构"ZAM"的概述。 SAIMEMORY 是 一 家 由 软 银 、 英 特 尔 和 东 京 大 学 共 同 成 立 的 存 储 器 制 造 商 ， 成 立 于 2024 年 12 月，并于 2025 年 6 月开始全面运营。其主要业务是存储器及相关产品的研发、制造和销售。 然而，此前从未公开宣布过此事，相关业务细节也一直不为人知。在本次英特尔活动上，一种面向人 工智能市场的新型内存结构——ZAM（Z字形内存）——正式亮相。 到目前为止，存储器的结构都是堆叠在平面上的，但由于功率和散热的限制，目前这种结构的 16 层 已经接近其极限 ...