Earnings Reports - 180 S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings this week, including four from the Magnificent 7, which will test the market's appetite for momentum names [2] - Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon are among the key companies reporting, with Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday [3] Microsoft - Analysts expect Microsoft to report EPS of $3.22 on revenue of $68.44 billion, although Morgan Stanley has lowered some estimates due to macroeconomic uncertainty [4] - There are mixed views on Microsoft's strategy, with some analysts believing the company is sacrificing profitability for economies of scale, while others warn of potential impacts from tariff retaliation and a U.S. recession [5] Apple - The Street anticipates Apple will report EPS of $1.61 on revenue of $94.06 billion, with some analysts expecting a slight earnings beat due to effective tariff management [6] - However, concerns exist regarding Apple's vulnerability to tariff impacts due to its integrated supply chain and significant revenue from China [6] Economic Indicators - The first estimate of Q1 GDP is expected to show a growth rate of 0.4%, influenced by a historic import surge due to anticipated tariff hikes [7] - Payrolls are expected to rise by 130,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2% and average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3% [7] Trade Relations - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated uncertainty about direct communications between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, suggesting that high tariff levels are unsustainable for China's business model [8] - Ken Griffin criticized the Trump administration's trade policies, arguing that tariffs will not revive American manufacturing jobs and emphasized the need for the U.S. to leverage its competitive advantages [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet and Meta Platforms are facing antitrust actions that have negatively impacted their stock prices, but this situation may present a buying opportunity for investors [1][2][3]. Company-Specific Risks - Alphabet's stock has fallen by 27% and Meta's by 32% as of April 22 due to increased market volatility and company-specific risks [2]. - Alphabet has lost two antitrust cases related to Google Search and online advertising, with potential remedies including the sale of its Chrome web browser or changes to its payment agreements with Apple [6][10]. - The Federal Trade Commission's case against Meta is in its early stages, with potential outcomes including the forced sale or spinoff of Instagram and WhatsApp [7][11]. Market Position and Revenue - Alphabet and Meta are major players in the tech industry, generating billions in annual ad revenue, with Alphabet dominating internet search and Meta's apps reaching 3.35 billion daily active users [4][5]. Antitrust Implications - The potential breakup of these companies may not be as detrimental as perceived, as both have established ecosystems with strong network effects [8][10]. - Even if Alphabet were to lose its payment arrangement with Apple, Google Search would likely remain viable due to its multiple distribution channels [9][10]. - Meta's ecosystem is less layered, and losing a major app could impact its overall value, but a spinoff could also unlock shareholder value [12]. Investment Opportunities - Despite antitrust risks, the long-term potential of AI technologies could provide significant growth opportunities for both companies [14][17]. - Current valuations are compelling, with Alphabet trading at a PEG ratio of 1.2 and Meta at 1.4, suggesting they may be better investment options compared to more mature companies like Walmart [14][17]. Future Growth Catalysts - Both companies are exploring AI-driven growth, with Alphabet focusing on cloud services, autonomous vehicles, and quantum computing, while Meta is expanding its hardware offerings and integrating AI into its social media platforms [15].

当下，AI 发展正如互联网初期般充满无限可能与机遇。广州日报进行多方采访了解到，人工智能将呈 现四大发展趋势：具身智能加速发展、垂直领域AI应用进入爆发期、有望迎来AI终端元年以及科技巨 头加大AI研发投资、投入。从机器人"大脑"的突破难题，到各行业AI赋能的迫切需求，一场由AI驱动 的产业变革正蓄势待发，深刻重塑未来经济与社会生活图景。 趋势1 冲呀，机器人！ 从工业领域来看，蘑菇物联工业AI首席技术官周子叶博士直言，人工智能在工业的应用涵盖了工业生 产的全流程：产品研发、生产制造、供应链管理、市场营销、售后服务等。AI可以提高产品研发的效 率，优化生产制造的工艺，提高产品生产的良率，分析制定市场营销策略等。 具身智能与机器人绝对是近期的大热。"具身智能的发展值得期待。"香港科技大学（广州）协理副校长 （知识转移）、人工智能学域讲座教授熊辉在接受采访时表示，传统机器虽然具备知识理解和推理能 力，但缺乏行动能力。而具身智能的出现，在理解意图的基础上，不仅能做出决策，还能付诸行动，实 现从"认知"到"执行"的跨越。 《2025人形机器人与具身智能产业研究报告》提出，2025年，人形机器人产业有望从"技术验证 期 ...

4. 周四：①数据：瑞士3月实际零售销售年率；英国4月制造业PMI终值、英国3月央行抵押贷款许可； 美国4月挑战者企业裁员人数、美国当周初请、美国4月标普全球制造业PMI终值、美国4月ISM制造业 PMI、美国3月营建支出月率、美国至4月25日当周EIA天然气库存。②事件： 日本央行公布利率决议和 经济前景展望报告、植田和男召开货币政策新闻发布会；加拿大央行公布4月货币政策会议纪要。③假 期：韩国、德国、法国、意大利、西班牙、中国台湾、中国香港、中国-沪深及北交所、国内期货交易 所、印度及越南股市均因劳动节休市一日。④财报：苹果、亚马逊。 2. 周二：①数据：德国5月Gfk消费者信心指数；欧元区4月工业与经济景气指数；美国2月FHFA房价指 数月率、美国2月S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数年率、美国3月JOLTs职位空缺、美国4月谘商会消 费者信心指数。②假期：日本股市因昭和日休市一日。③财报：工行、中行、交行、农行。 3. 周三：①数据：美国当周API、EIA原油库存；中国4月官方制造业PMI、中国4月财新制造业PMI； 澳大利亚第一季度CPI年率、澳大利亚3月加权CPI年率；法国第一季度GDP年率初 ...

据参考消息援引今日俄罗斯电视台网站报道，美国竞争监管机构寻求拆分社交媒体巨头元宇宙平台公司，指控它通过收购照片墙(Instagram)和沃茨阿普 (WhatsApp)不当地主导市场。 周一，由美国联邦贸易委员会提起的一场历史性反垄断诉讼在华盛顿一家联邦法院开庭。联邦贸易委员会指责元宇宙滥用市场力量，用"买不到就埋掉战 略"收购潜在竞争对手。马西森说，扎克伯格在2012年的一条消息中讨论"摧毁"Instagram的重要性，这是"确凿的证据"。 据美国《纽约邮报》16日报道，美媒爆料称，社交媒体巨头"元宇宙"（Meta）公司的首席执行官马克·扎克伯格，为了将美国政府针对Meta的反垄断诉讼案 件的和解金从300亿美元降为4.5亿，亲自去游说美国总统特朗普，并向他的总统就职典礼捐款100万美元。FTC认为，这些视频平台于Meta公司提供的服务 元宇宙"（Meta）总部（资料图） 处在不同的竞争市场。Meta公司发言人表示，该公司"已准备好在庭审中获胜"。 美国硅谷（资料图） 有消息说，扎克伯格以前想掏2500万美元给特朗普，说是所谓的"封号赔偿"，就为了私底下把他们之间的矛盾解决掉。不过呢，特朗普那边的团队觉得这钱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic uncertainty and potential recession are impacting AI stocks, but Meta Platforms presents a strong investment opportunity due to its competitive advantages and AI capabilities [2][3][15]. Group 1: Meta's Competitive Advantages - Meta is classified as a "hyperscaler," focusing on building extensive data centers for AI training and inference, which provides a significant edge over competitors that operate public cloud platforms [5]. - Unlike other tech companies, Meta is not reliant on cloud customers, allowing it to concentrate on long-term goals and maintain high utilization rates for its capital investments [6]. - Historically, Meta has shown resilience in the advertising market, which is crucial as its primary revenue source is advertising [7][15]. Group 2: AI Development and Opportunities - Meta has made significant advancements in AI, particularly with its recommendation algorithms for products like Reels, leading to increased user engagement and ad views [9][10]. - The company has integrated generative AI features into its ad-buying tools, optimizing ad campaigns for specific marketing goals, which could lead to increased advertiser spending [11]. - Meta is developing its own AI chatbot, aiming for 1 billion users, which has already surpassed 700 million users, presenting monetization opportunities through personalized features [12]. - AI agents are being created for Messenger and WhatsApp to enhance customer service and sales, potentially driving revenue through increased ad spending [13]. - The use of AI-generated content on Meta's platforms could further boost user engagement and advertising opportunities [14]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Despite potential risks from economic slowdowns, Meta's position in the advertising market and growth opportunities mitigate these risks, making it an attractive investment at current stock prices [15][17]. - The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 22, significantly below its average valuation, indicating a bargain price for investors [15]. - Analysts predict that while AI spending may impact profits in the short term, Meta is expected to achieve positive earnings-per-share growth, supported by a share repurchase program [16].

长期以来，欧洲是美国数字服务的"大买家"。欧委会数据显示，欧洲是全球最大的服务进口市场，2023 年占全球服务进口的约23.8%。苹果公司财报也显示，欧盟占该公司2024财年净销售额的26%，仅次于 美国。鉴于欧洲的"购买力"，美国科技巨头不得不遵循欧盟严格的科技法规，但仍被多次处以高额罚 款。欧盟2022年通过的《数字市场法案》和《数字服务法案》（DSA）进一步为科技巨头立下"规矩"。 特朗普一直对欧盟的科技法规持批评态度。例如，在今年1月的达沃斯世界经济论坛上，他曾表示欧盟 的科技法规是"一种征税形式"。就任当天，他还发布行政令，指示美国政府调查外国对美国公民或企业 实施"歧视性或域外税收"的情况，直指欧盟的数字服务税。 有分析认为，此次罚款或为科技巨头提供了一个机会，让特朗普政府进一步意识到欧盟的科技竞争规则 已直接影响美国企业，促使其采取更多行动。Meta全球事务负责人卡普兰（Joel Kaplan）在一份声明中 称，来自欧盟2亿欧元罚款及强制调整广告模式"实际上相当于数十亿美元的关税"，迫使Meta提供"次等 服务"。 谷歌母公司Alphabet和马斯克的社交媒体平台X可能成为欧盟监管机构下一个罚款 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook and AI Investment - The economy faces uncertainty, but investing in top AI companies remains promising due to productivity gains expected over the next decade [1] - Leading companies are likely to continue attracting investment, driving returns for investors [1] Group 2: Amazon's Position and Performance - Amazon's shares have decreased by 31% from recent highs, with potential consumer demand impacts due to tariffs [3] - In the previous year, Amazon's revenue grew by 11% to $638 billion, with net income nearly doubling to $59 billion [4] - AI is enhancing Amazon's operations by optimizing inventory and delivery routes, leading to cost reductions and profit growth [4] - The company is advancing same-day delivery and exploring drone deliveries, which could increase purchase frequency and cash flow [5] - Despite recession fears, Amazon's stock is considered attractively valued, with expected earnings growth of 20% annually [6] Group 3: Meta Platforms' Market Position - Meta Platforms has seen a 15% decline in share price this year, influenced by recession fears affecting advertising companies [7] - The digital advertising market, where Meta operates, is valued at $700 billion, and the company has a significant user base of over 3.3 billion daily users [8] - Meta's revenue and earnings grew by 21% and 60%, respectively, last year, aided by the launch of Meta AI [9] - The company utilizes AI for optimal ad placement, enhancing user engagement and advertiser ROI through its Andromeda machine learning system [10] - With a net income of $62 billion last year, Meta is positioned as a strong long-term investment, with expected earnings growth of 14% annually [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the "Artificial Intelligence +" industry Core Insights - The global landscape is witnessing a paradigm shift driven by artificial intelligence, which is reshaping technology, economy, and society at an unprecedented pace. AI is characterized as a self-evolving general enabling technology that is breaking through the boundaries of technology, economy, and society, showcasing its potential to reshape human civilization [4][9] - The report aims to analyze the current state and trends of AI development, exploring its applications across various industries and providing insights for government and industry stakeholders on how AI can facilitate the transformation and innovation of traditional industries [4][9] Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the global development of AI and its implications for technology, economy, and society, emphasizing the need for international cooperation and governance frameworks [9] Chapter 1: AI Large Models - AI large models are seen as a new route for the evolution of general artificial intelligence technology, significantly impacting human society [20] - OpenAI is highlighted as a leader in the current AI revolution, with its products like ChatGPT demonstrating the early forms of general artificial intelligence [21] Chapter 2: AI Data - AI data is identified as the core engine driving the intelligent era, essential for the development and application of AI technologies [6] Chapter 3: AI Computing Power - AI computing power is described as the foundational support for the evolution of intelligence, crucial for training large models and processing vast amounts of data [6] Chapter 4: AI Empowerment in Various Industries - The report outlines typical application scenarios of AI in various sectors, including manufacturing, information technology, materials, energy, healthcare, space, and financial services, showcasing how AI can enhance productivity and innovation [6] Chapter 5: AI Application Cases - The report provides specific case studies of AI applications across different industries, illustrating successful implementations and outcomes [6] Chapter 6: Domestic and International AI Policies and Trends - An analysis of AI policies and trends both domestically and internationally is presented, highlighting the competitive landscape and the role of government support in fostering AI development [6] Chapter 7: AI Ethics and Governance Framework - The report discusses the ethical considerations and governance frameworks necessary for the responsible development and deployment of AI technologies, addressing issues such as human-machine relationships, data privacy, and intellectual property [6]

见闻财经日历 WSCN Economic Calendar 地区 前值 时间 内容 预期 4月28日 周一 待定 十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议4月27日至 園内 30日在北京举行 事件 海外 待定 加拿大大选正式投票日 海天味业、昆仑万维、传音控股、药明康德、青岛啤酒 京东方A、上海电气、迈瑞医疗、恒立液压、保利发展 国内 中国石化、张小泉、中国建筑、顺丰控股、宁沪高速 财报 老板电器、百济神州-U、华帝股份 达美乐披萨、恩智浦 海外 4月29日 周二 待定 日本股市因昭和日休市一日 海外 事件 海外 Meta首届开源Al大会 光明乳业、工商银行、海尔智家、贵州茅台 万科A、长江电力、通威股份、伊利股份、金龙鱼 韦尔股份、中国海油、中远海控、招商银行、三一重工 国内 中信证券、中国人保、片仔擴、海螺水泥、隆基绿能 财报 浪潮信息、美的集团、新希望、工业富联 红星美凯龙、复星医药、中国中免 辉瑞制药、希尔顿、可口可乐、霍尼韦尔 海外 联合包裹、通用汽车、星巴克、阿迪达斯 4月30日 周三 v 华尔街见闻 | | 国内 | 09:30 中国4月官方制造业PMI | | 50.5 | | --- | --- | ...