Core Insights - Microsoft exceeded earnings expectations with Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $81.27 billion and EPS of $4.14, surpassing the anticipated $80.27 billion and $3.97 respectively [2][8] - Despite positive earnings, the stock dropped 7% after hours due to slowing Azure growth and significant reliance on OpenAI, which accounts for 45% of its $625 billion backlog [2][3][9] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 17% year-over-year, driven by strong cloud and productivity software growth, with Microsoft 365 Copilot reaching 15 million paid subscriptions [8] - Q3 revenue guidance is projected between $80.65 billion and $81.75 billion, aligning with consensus expectations, indicating no positive surprise [7] Growth and Margins - Azure's growth guidance for Q3 is projected at 37-38% in constant currency, barely meeting the 37.1% consensus, reflecting a deceleration trend over three consecutive quarters [2][9] - Operating margin guidance for Q3 is approximately 45.1%, below the 45.5% consensus, as Microsoft increases investments in AI infrastructure with quarterly capital expenditures of $37.5 billion [4][6] Backlog and Risks - OpenAI's commitment to $250 billion in cloud spending inflated Microsoft's backlog by 110% year-over-year, but excluding OpenAI, the backlog only expanded by 28% [6] - The heavy reliance on OpenAI raises concerns about revenue generation and the potential impact on Microsoft's financial stability if OpenAI fails to meet its obligations [3][6] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Microsoft currently trades at a P/E ratio of around 30x, which is not excessive but reflects market concerns over growth acceleration in AI [10] - The stock's current valuation presents an attractive entry point, with a potential upside of 35% based on the Street's average estimate of $620 [10][12]

Group 1: Tech Earnings Overview - The earnings season for major tech companies, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," has commenced, with investors expecting strong guidance for 2026 and evidence of profitability from AI investments in Q4 [1] - Prominent venture capitalist Bill Gurley predicts a correction in the tech sector due to high burn rates among venture-backed companies, which are reportedly losing more money than Uber and Amazon at their peak [2] - The initial tech earnings reports did not meet all investor expectations, although some companies performed well [2] Group 2: Tesla's Performance - Tesla's recent earnings call revealed a more efficient approach, with a focus on future projects like robotaxis and humanoid robots, despite a 16% drop in total deliveries [3] - Elon Musk expressed a vision for a new era of abundance and indicated plans to build a "TeraFab" for semiconductor manufacturing, which will require significant investment [3] - Analysts noted multiple areas of progress for Tesla, including robotaxi and chip design, but expressed concerns that current stock prices may already reflect this success [3] Group 3: Microsoft's Earnings Call - Microsoft's recent earnings call was criticized for being filled with corporate jargon, leading to confusion among investors regarding the company's current projects [4]

近年来，美科技公司一直是其大盘的关键增长驱动力。聚焦2025年第四季度，剔除科技板块，标普500指数的盈利增长将从9.2%降至5.5%。 投资研究公司扎克斯估算，2026年科技板块将占标普500指数盈利增长的近一半。 本周是美科技股的财报周，科技股展示出喜忧参半的局面，投资者依旧重点关注各家公司在AI大额支出和回报方面的表现。1月30日晨间，苹果 将公布财报，为此番财报季画上尾声。 押注AI业绩喜忧参半 1月28日盘后，特斯拉公布2025年第四季度及全年财务报告，季度盈利与收入均超出市场预期，但全年营收出现首次同比下降，凸显出其核心汽 车业务面临的挑战。 具体来看，去年第四季度，特斯拉总收入较去年同期的257亿美元下降约3%；汽车业务收入同比下滑11%，至177亿美元。2025年全年，特斯拉总 收入从2024年的977亿美元降至948亿美元，降幅为3%。公司解释称，下降主要源于"车辆交付量减少"及"监管信贷收入下降"。 盈利方面，特斯拉第四季度净利润为8.4亿美元，同比暴跌61%。同时运营费用激增39%，公司称部分由人工智能（AI）及其他研发项目推动。 同日，科技巨头Meta与微软也都发布了超出预期的营收，但 ...

格隆汇1月29日｜伯恩斯坦：将微软(MSFT.US)目标股价从645美元下调至641美元。 ...

CNBC 蒋钰：特斯拉当地时间周三公布的第四季度业绩好于预期，但特斯拉全年营收同比下降3%，创 下该公司有史以来首次年度营收下滑。 第四季度特斯拉的每股收益调整后为50美分，超出市场预期的45美分，营收为249亿美元，同样高于预 期。财报显示，特斯拉全年营收从2024年的977亿美元降至2025年的948亿美元。还值得关注的就是，隔 夜特斯拉的CEO马斯克宣布要精简车型阵容，并且在股东支持力度有限的背景下，仍决定要向其旗下的 人工智能公司xAI投资20亿美元。马斯克表示，特斯拉将在下个季度结束旗舰车型Model S和Model X的 生产，并将位于美国加州的工厂转型用于生产Optimus人形机器人。分析认为这标志着特斯拉正在将重 心从汽车转向AI和机器人。 （央视财经《天下财经》）特斯拉精简车型阵容，重心转向AI和机器人。Meta2026年资本支出或高于 市场预期 ，AI投资能否获益仍存疑。微软云服务表现不及预期，过度依赖OpenAI引发市场担忧。 隔夜Meta公布的第四季度财报显示，营收和利润均超出预期，并发布了强于预期的指引，盘后交易 中，公司股价上涨。四季度Meta每股收益为8.88美元，高于市场预期的 ...

Core Insights - The fourth quarter earnings season is underway, with major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple leading the earnings calendar [1] - An optimistic consensus is forming, with 13% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, and an estimated 8.2% increase in earnings per share for the fourth quarter, marking the potential for the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth [2] - Analysts had initially expected an 8.3% jump in earnings per share, a decrease from the previous quarter's 13.6% growth rate, but have since raised expectations, particularly for tech companies [3] Company Updates - In addition to the reports from major tech stocks, earnings updates will also come from a diverse range of companies including UnitedHealth, Boeing, General Motors, IBM, Starbucks, Levi Strauss, Visa, American Express, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AT&T, and Verizon [4]

分组1 - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference revealed limited insights, with stock futures showing little change and major indexes posting modest gains [1][2] - Meta's shares rose over 8% after beating fourth-quarter earnings expectations and providing strong sales guidance, although its Reality Labs unit reported a wider operating loss of $6.02 billion compared to the expected $5.67 billion [2][3] - Microsoft shares fell 7% despite surpassing Wall Street predictions, attributed to cooling cloud growth and light operating margin guidance [4] 分组2 - Tesla reported stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter, leading to a 2% increase in shares, but also noted its first full-year sales decline on record [5][6] - CEO Elon Musk announced the discontinuation of Model S and X production, reallocating resources to build Optimus humanoid robots, and Tesla plans to invest around $2 billion in xAI, a startup competing with OpenAI [6][7] 分组3 - The U.S. dollar index regained some ground after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denied intervention reports, despite the index falling over 10% in the past year, leading some to view the dollar as being in a bear market [9][11] - JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo committed to matching the U.S. government's contribution to tax-advantaged savings accounts for children, with additional support from Altimeter Capital and rapper Nicki Minaj [12][13][14]

格隆汇1月29日｜TD Cowen：将微软目标价从625美元下调至610美元。将特斯拉目标股价从509美元上 调至519美元。 ...

OpenAI 正拟从其一众头部科技合作伙伴处获得巨额投资，该公司计划募资至多 1000 亿美元，以满足其 人工智能业务不断增长的资金需求。据知情人士透露，英伟达作为 OpenAI 的现有投资方，其芯片为 OpenAI 的人工智能模型提供算力支持，目前该公司正洽谈向其注资至多 300 亿美元。 微软是 OpenAI 的长期投资方，且拥有向云服务客户独家销售 OpenAI 模型的权利，此次正洽谈的投资 额低于 100 亿美元；亚马逊则为新晋潜在投资方，洽谈的注资金额远超 100 亿美元，甚至有可能突破 200 亿美元。 核心要点 两名知情人士表示，除上述三家企业外，OpenAI 现有投资方软银也在洽谈注资至多 300 亿美元，上述 三家企业的投资均为额外追加。 若这一轮规模空前的融资顺利落地，将缓解投资者对 OpenAI 现金消耗速度的担忧。近期，公开市场投 资者对 OpenAI 能否兑现其与甲骨文、微软的相关支出承诺已日渐持怀疑态度。 此次新一轮融资完成前，OpenAI 的估值预计将达 7300 亿美元。 一众科技巨头的入局，将为 OpenAI 带来远超以往的资金资源，用于人工智能模型的运行、训练及其他 算力相 ...

马斯克旗下人工智能公司xAI，也有最新动向。特斯拉当地时间周三（1月28日）宣布，将向xAI投资20亿美 元，并表示其 Cybercab无人出租车的生产计划正按计划于今年实现。今年1月6日，xAI宣布完成E轮200亿美元 融资，整体估值达到2300亿美元，较去年春季时的估值翻了一番。 OpenAI拟融资近1000亿美元 据《The Information》报道，英伟达、亚马逊和微软正在就向OpenAI投资至多600亿美元展开磋商，此举可能 成为人工智能领域迄今规模最大的融资轮之一。当前，在生成式人工智能竞争日趋激烈之际，OpenAI拟持续 扩大其计算需求与长期研究能力，因此促成了这一谈判。 AI巨头，正在筹集巨额资金！ 据最新消息，英伟达、微软、亚马逊正在洽谈向OpenAI投资高达600亿美元，作为OpenAI新一轮1000亿美元重 大融资的一部分。1月28日还有消息称，软银正洽谈向OpenAI追加至多300亿美元投资。 据报道，此次融资谈判尚处初步阶段，尚未签署最终协议。上述三家公司分别提出不同规模的投资承诺，但相 关数字仍可能变动。 特斯拉宣布对xAI投资20亿美元 OpenAI的上述融资谈判，发生在整个 ...