Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that the expansion of AI capabilities is significantly constrained by TSMC's conservative capacity expansion strategy, which may lead to a major chip shortage by 2029 if not addressed [2][4]. Group 1: TSMC's Capacity and AI Expansion - TSMC, as a monopolistic player, is cautious in expanding its production capacity due to the high risks associated with wafer fabrication, preferring to avoid the potential for overcapacity and its associated depreciation costs [2][3]. - This conservative approach results in a misalignment of risks, transferring the burden of insufficient capacity to major tech companies like NVIDIA and Apple, which face the risk of losing future revenues due to inadequate computing power [3]. Group 2: Future Predictions - A significant prediction made is that a large-scale chip shortage is expected around 2029, as current capital expenditure growth (e.g., TSMC's increase from $40 billion to $60 billion) is insufficient to meet the exponential demand for computing power driven by AI advancements [4]. Group 3: Recommendations for Tech Giants - Tech giants are urged to support companies like Intel or Samsung, or to take on factory construction risks through prepayments, driven by economic motives rather than geopolitical considerations, to avoid being trapped in a capacity bottleneck [5]. Group 4: Monetization of AI Applications - The article emphasizes that advertising is the most effective monetization method for AI applications, particularly for companies like OpenAI that have significant traffic but lack a solid business model [6]. - Thompson counters the argument that advertising negatively impacts AI answer quality, asserting that a comprehensive understanding of users is essential for effective advertising [10]. Group 5: Analysis of Major Tech Companies - Meta is highlighted as having the strongest execution capabilities, with its advertising model being undervalued despite concerns over capital expenditures [12]. - Google is described as chaotic yet resilient, likened to a slime mold that, while appearing disorganized, possesses great adaptability [13]. - Amazon's strategy in the AI era raises concerns, as its focus on low-cost alternatives may hinder competitiveness in a rapidly evolving market [14]. - Apple is criticized for being a poor platform manager despite its hardware strengths, indicating a need for improvement in software and service platforms [16]. Group 6: Future of SaaS and Value of "Live" Experiences - The article suggests that if AI leads to a reduction in workforce numbers, the SaaS business model based on "per seat" pricing will face growth limitations [18]. - In a world flooded with AI-generated content, the value of "live" experiences, such as shared events and face-to-face interactions, will become increasingly significant [19].

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Nvidia’s ( NVDA ) stock has been flat for almost half a year since August 2025, ranging between $170-$200/share. I believe NVDA’s share price is at risk of a major decline, and here’s why.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I ha ...

Group 1: Palantir Technologies - Palantir Technologies has seen a significant pullback in its stock performance, with shares trading at 128 times forward earnings, indicating an astronomical valuation [1] - The company is described as being priced for perfection, which may not be sustainable in the long term [11] Group 2: Nvidia - Nvidia's stock is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 24.5, which is considered reasonable given its growth prospects [3] - The upcoming launch of the Rubin platform in the second half of 2026 is expected to support inference at a cost up to 10 times lower than Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs and enable training of large models with 4 times fewer GPUs [4] - Nvidia's CEO believes that the demand for powerful AI chips will continue to grow, positioning the company as a major beneficiary of this trend [6] - Nvidia's current market cap is $4.4 trillion, with a gross margin of 70.05% [5][6] Group 3: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD is identified as a credible challenger to Nvidia, trading at nearly 32 times forward earnings, which is still seen as a bargain compared to Palantir [7] - AMD's Instinct MI400 chips are expected to match Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips in performance while offering 1.5 times the memory capacity and scale-out bandwidth [8] - The market anticipates that AMD's stock will regain momentum once the MI400 chips are launched [10] Group 4: Market Dynamics - AI hyperscalers are diversifying their investments and are unlikely to rely solely on Nvidia, which could benefit AMD [10] - Both Nvidia and AMD are expected to benefit from continued demand for GPUs, and they do not need to be perfect to achieve market-beating returns [12]

Group 1 - The world's most valuable technology stocks have experienced significant declines in market value this year, raising concerns about the return on heavy AI investments [1] - Microsoft shares have dropped approximately 17% year-to-date, resulting in a market value loss of about $613 billion, bringing its valuation to around $2.98 trillion [2] - Amazon's stock has decreased by about 13.85% this year, erasing roughly $343 billion in market value, leaving it valued at approximately $2.13 trillion [2] Group 2 - Capital spending for Amazon is expected to increase by more than 50% this year [3] - Other major companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Alphabet have also seen declines in market value, totaling $89.67 billion, $256.44 billion, and $87.96 billion, respectively [3] - The shift in market psychology indicates a move from long-term AI ambitions to a demand for near-term earnings visibility [4] Group 3 - Companies such as TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Walmart have gained market value, adding $293.89 billion, $272.88 billion, and $179.17 billion, respectively [4] - The current valuations for TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Walmart stand at $1.58 trillion, $817 billion, and $1.07 trillion [4]

Market Analysis by covering: NVIDIA Corporation, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Super Micro Computer Inc. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Alphabet's massive capital expenditure plans are great news for computing providers.Listening to other companies' earnings reports outside of the ones you invest in is an important task for investors. You can pick up lots of useful information, especially from the customers of companies that you're invested in.One of the companies to report earnings recently dropped a bombshell that should make Nvidia (NVDA 2.21%) and Broadcom (AVGO 1.87%) investors jump for joy. Alphabet (GOOG 1.10%) (GOOGL 1.06%) told inv ...

如果把时间拨回一年前，华尔街几乎形成了共识：只要是AI相关的资本支出，规模越大、投入 越激进，未来的护城河就越深。彼时的逻辑很简单——算力决定上限，模型决定胜负，而现金 流只是暂时性的牺牲。 但进入2026年，这套逻辑正在被市场亲手拆解。 亚马逊正式跌入熊市区间，微软成为Mag7中最早确认熊市的一员，Meta距离20%的技术性熊 市只剩一步之遥；与此同时，Alphabet的跌幅明显受控，英伟达则被推到了所有交易的"风暴 眼"。 这并不是一轮普通的科技股回调，而是一次 AI投资逻辑的阶段性结算 ： 市场第一次开始系统 性地追问——这些前所未有的AI资本支出，究竟能不能转化为可验证的回报。 七大巨头不再同涨同跌，正是这个问题被摆上台面的直接结果。 分化的起点：当AI资本 支出开始侵蚀现金流安全垫 真正的分水岭：不是投不投AI， 而是AI能否被"内部消化" 表面上看，最近一轮抛售似乎是情绪主导，但真正让市场产生分歧的，是 AI支出对财务结构的 冲击已经变得不可忽视 。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 以亚马逊为例。2026年高达2000亿美元的资本支出计划，在两年前会被视为"云计算+AI长期 护城河"的加码，如 ...

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By Debby Wu, Takashi Mochizuki and Yoolim Lee   A growing procession of tech industry leaders including Elon Musk and Tim Cook are warning about a global crisis in the making: A shortage of memory chips is beginning to hammer profits, derail corporate plans and inflate price tags on everything from laptops and smartphones to automobiles and data centers — and the crunch is only going to get worse.   Since the start of 2026, Tesla Inc., Apple Inc. and a dozen other major corporations have signaled that th ...