Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart, a leading player in the collectible toy market, has been on a downward trend, dropping 15.74% since reaching a historical high of 339.8 HKD per share on August 26, closing at 275.2 HKD on September 10, with a single-day decline of 4.51% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price has seen a significant decline, with a total drop of 15.74% over the past half month [1] - Despite the stock price pressure, the offline consumer scene remains active, with stores experiencing continuous foot traffic [1] Group 2: Product Demand and Market Dynamics - The core IP series, THE MONSTERS, generated revenue of 4.814 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 668%, accounting for 35% of the company's total revenue [1] - Many popular LABUBU products are currently out of stock in stores, leading to a booming second-hand market, with prices for certain items significantly above retail [2] - Recent trends show a cooling in the second-hand market, with prices for similar products dropping to the range of 600-700 RMB [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Index, which theoretically could attract passive fund allocations, although some investors opted to take profits, creating short-term selling pressure [3] - The company's globalization strategy is progressing steadily, with significant revenue growth in overseas markets, particularly in the Americas and Europe [3]

Group 1 - The LABUBU series, once highly sought after, is experiencing a significant decline in second-hand prices, with the hidden version "Ben Wo" dropping from approximately 4356 yuan to 834 yuan over the past 90 days [1] - Following the peak price of 339.8 HKD per share on August 26, the stock price of Pop Mart has been on a downward trend, falling 7.5% on September 8 and reaching 269 HKD per share by September 10, resulting in a total market capitalization of approximately 361.2 billion HKD [4] - The initial sale of the LABUBU series sparked a buying frenzy, with prices on second-hand platforms reaching as high as 3200 yuan for a complete set of 14 figures, and some sellers charging up to 2699 yuan for "proxy buying" services, which is more than double the official price [4] Group 2 - The average transaction price for the mini LABUBU has significantly decreased, with the A-M version averaging 147 yuan and the complete N-Z set averaging 1511 yuan as of September 10 [4] - In response to the drastic price fluctuations, scalpers are adopting a conservative approach, with some halting purchases and waiting for market conditions to improve, indicating a shift in market sentiment [10] - The latest financial report from Pop Mart shows a remarkable revenue increase of 204.4% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 13.876 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 396.5% [10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Service Trade Fair will feature a cultural and tourism service exhibition at Shougang Park, showcasing various innovative products and experiences [1] Group 1: Event Highlights - The Chaoyang exhibition area will focus on the theme "Trendy Play, Trendy Enjoyment, Trendy Life," presenting multiple first-time exhibits [1] - Notable exhibits include the Bubble Mart's intangible cultural heritage series Molly, the Letsvan's Dream Island series, and the first ultra-realistic 3A XR interactive film work "Mulan 2125 XR" [1] - The exhibition will also introduce the first cultural creation collection store in the city, supported by the government and operated by market entities, as part of the National Cultural Industry Innovation Experimental Zone [1]

Market Performance - On September 10, all three major stock indices in Hong Kong rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.01% to 26,200.26 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.27% to 5,902.69 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.93% to 9,328.16 points [1] - The total market turnover was HKD 288.21 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 7.566 billion [1] Stock Movements - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Index, 65 stocks rose while 21 fell, with Lenovo Group leading the blue chips with a gain of 4.63%, followed by JD Logistics at 4.45% and Sun Hung Kai Properties at 4.28% [2] - In the Hang Seng Tech Index, 20 stocks increased and 9 decreased, with Bilibili leading the gains at 7.57%, followed by Lenovo Group at 4.63% and SMIC at 3.61% [4] Notable Stocks - Alibaba had a trading volume of HKD 26.367 billion, rising by 0.63%, while Tencent Holdings traded HKD 12.190 billion, increasing by 1.04%, and Meituan saw a trading volume of HKD 9.569 billion, up by 2.06% [5] - Pop Mart experienced a significant decline of 4.51% due to reports of falling prices for its LABUBU series, closing at HKD 275.20 per share, despite a year-to-date increase of 208.24% [10] Industry Performance - The financial sector index rose by 1.85%, the real estate and construction index increased by 1.51%, and the composite enterprises index was up by 0.86%. Conversely, the healthcare index fell by 0.94%, and the materials index decreased by 0.41% [6] Concept Sector Performance - Most Wind concept sectors saw gains, with the Foxconn index up by 10.03%, the air pollution control index rising by 5.42%, and the integrated circuit industry fund index increasing by 3.37%. The infant and child index led the declines at 3.01%, followed by the gold and jewelry index down by 2.93% and the photovoltaic solar index down by 2.53% [8] Company Developments - NIO announced plans for an issuance of up to 182 million shares of Class A common stock, including American Depositary Shares (ADS), with the net proceeds intended for investment in core technologies for smart electric vehicles, development of future technology platforms and models, and expansion of battery swapping and charging networks [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market prices for the mini LABUBU have declined, impacting market sentiment towards Pop Mart, despite the company's efforts to increase production and combat scalping [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The mini LABUBU series sold out quickly upon release, leading to a significant spike in secondary market prices, which later fell sharply within a week [1][2]. - The prices of first, second, and third generation LABUBU products in the secondary market have also decreased, with the third generation even experiencing slight depreciation [2][3]. - Following the decline in secondary market prices, Pop Mart's stock price also saw a minor correction, although it remained above levels prior to the release of the half-year performance report [2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - Pop Mart is actively increasing production capacity to meet genuine market demand, with plush toy production capacity reportedly increased to over ten times that of the same period last year, reaching approximately 30 million units in August [2]. - The expansion of production capacity is expected to positively impact the availability of LABUBU and other IP products for consumers, which could benefit the company's long-term performance [3]. Group 3: Long-term Value Considerations - The decline in secondary market prices is viewed as a sign of increased production capacity and a move towards making products more accessible to consumers, which is essential for the sustainable development of the company [3]. - Investors emphasize that the long-term value of the company should not be judged solely based on the fluctuations in secondary market prices of a single IP, as controlling secondary market premiums is crucial for maintaining consumer access and reducing speculation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Service Trade Fair emphasizes dynamic engagement and diverse interactive experiences, with Bubble Mart participating as the exclusive trendy cultural brand partner, showcasing popular IP products and creative installations [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Service Trade Fair commenced on September 10, featuring a variety of supporting activities and interactive scenarios aimed at fostering new development momentum [1] - Bubble Mart set up two major exhibition booths at the fair, highlighting its popular IP products such as labubu, Molly, and Star People [1] Group 2: Interactive Experience - The event included innovative formats like a creative dessert house and large outdoor art installations, enhancing visitor engagement and interaction [1]

Core Insights - The LABUBU secondary market is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping sharply from initial highs shortly after new product releases [1][2][9] - The stock price of Pop Mart has declined over 15% since reaching a historical high of 339.8 HKD on August 26, reflecting the negative sentiment in the market [1][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The release of the MINI version LABUBU blind box on August 28 saw initial resale prices soar to over 1800 RMB, but prices quickly fell as supply outpaced demand [2][11] - Consumers are experiencing shorter "window periods" for selling new products, with the resale value dropping significantly within days of release [2][11] - The rapid introduction of new products has disrupted the supply-demand balance, leading to consumer fatigue and a decrease in speculative buying behavior [11][12] Group 2: Seller Experiences - Sellers like Liu Hui have reported significant losses, with some LABUBU items selling for over 30% below their purchase price, leading to total losses exceeding 10,000 RMB [3][5] - The influx of counterfeit products has further complicated the market, causing hesitation among buyers and impacting sales for legitimate sellers [7][12] - Yellow market participants are adjusting their strategies, focusing on high-demand items while avoiding overstocking less popular products [7][12] Group 3: Company Performance - Pop Mart's market capitalization has decreased by approximately 295.45 billion HKD as of September 8, indicating a substantial loss in investor confidence [9][12] - The company's strategy of releasing multiple new products in a short timeframe has been criticized for contributing to market instability and consumer dissatisfaction [11][12] - There are ongoing consumer concerns regarding the company's supply management practices, with accusations of maintaining artificial scarcity while simultaneously attempting to curb scalping [12]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) opened in Beijing, with Pop Mart participating as the exclusive trendy cultural brand partner, showcasing various popular IP products and interactive experiences [1][2] - Pop Mart created two exhibition areas themed "Cake a wish," featuring a dessert house inspired by its IPs, allowing visitors to enjoy both visual and taste experiences with products like SKULLPANDA ice cream and MOLLY chocolate [2][3] - The company presented its SPACE MOLLY collection and large outdoor art installations, enhancing the aesthetic experience and emotional connection for attendees [3] Group 2 - This year marks Pop Mart's sixth participation in CIFTIS, aiming to showcase the diversity and extensibility of trendy IPs on an international stage, receiving widespread recognition from attendees [4] - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8%, with five major IPs generating over one billion yuan in revenue [4][5] - The company is actively exploring various creative expressions and new business formats centered around IP, with significant growth in international markets, including a tenfold increase in the Americas [5]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart's brand popularity is expected to rebound with the release of the "Labubu and Friends" animation and Labubu 4.0 version, alongside a rise in search interest for "Mini Labubu" since June, now comparable to Skullpanda and Dimoo [1] - The search index for Skullpanda increased by 40% compared to May, anticipating a new plush toy series launch in June, while Crybaby's average search index remained stable from July to August [1] - The interaction volume on Pop Mart's global social media accounts increased by 3% over the past two weeks, leading Morgan Stanley to maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of HKD 400 [1] Group 1 - Mini and large-sized Labubu are hot-selling items, with the "THE MONSTERS Pin For Love" series and "ROCK THE UNIVERSE" series selling out within a minute during their launch on August 28 [2] - The retail price for Mini Labubu is RMB 79 in mainland China and HKD 95 in Hong Kong, with a secondary market price increase of 45% as of September 5 [2] - The large Labubu is priced at RMB 499 in mainland China and HKD 583 in Hong Kong, with a secondary market price increase of 56% as of September 5 [2] Group 2 - Twinkle Twinkle is identified as a new emerging IP, with expected sales of RMB 389 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than other IPs like Crybaby and Hirono [3] - The "Sweet Dream Forecast" series, priced at RMB 79 in mainland China and HKD 95 in Hong Kong, is set to launch in August 2025 and has already shown a secondary market premium of 110% in mainland China and 36% overseas as of September 5 [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the brand popularity of Pop Mart (09992) is expected to rebound due to the launch of the "Labubu and Friends" animation and Labubu 4.0 version, with search interest for "Mini Labubu" rising since June, now comparable to Skullpanda and Dimoo [1] - The search index for Skullpanda increased by 40% compared to May, anticipating the release of a new plush toy series in June, while Crybaby's average search index remained stable from July to August [1] - The global social media engagement for Pop Mart's official accounts rose by 3% over the past two weeks, leading Morgan Stanley to maintain an "overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 400 for Pop Mart [1] Group 2 - Mini and large-sized Labubu are identified as hot-selling items, with the "THE MONSTERS Pin For Love" series (mini version) and "ROCK THE UNIVERSE" series (40 cm version) selling out within one minute during their launch on August 28 [2] - The pricing for Mini Labubu is set at RMB 79 in mainland China and HKD 95 in Hong Kong, with secondary market prices showing a 45% increase as of September 5, while the large Labubu is priced at RMB 499 and HKD 583, with a 56% increase in secondary market prices [2] Group 3 - Twinkle Twinkle is recognized as an emerging IP, with Pop Mart planning to launch it in August 2024, projecting sales of RMB 389 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than other IPs like Crybaby and Hirono [3] - The "Sweet Dream Forecast" series, priced at RMB 79 and HKD 95, is set to launch in mid-August 2025 and is expected to sell out quickly, with secondary market prices showing a premium of 110% in mainland China and 36% overseas as of September 5 [3]