2025 年 5 月 22 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 港股分类指数上日表现 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 40,872 | 0.24 | 37.05 | | 恒生工商业 | 13,639 | 0.85 | 47.71 | | 恒生地产 | 16,558 | 0.53 | -9.65 | | 恒生公用事业 | 37,033 | 0.11 | 12.65 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 北方华创（002371 CH，买入，目标价：512 元人民币）- 扩展产品组合，巩 固国产半导体设备龙头地位 公司2024年新增订单同比增长约25%，主要受集成电路设备订单强劲拉动， 且这一势头在 1Q25 持续。公司预计地缘政治局势不会给公司带来实质性影 响，全年新增订单有望延续此前增长态势。公司正通过内部研发及外部并购， 积极拓展产品覆盖面。其主要集成电路设备产品包括刻蚀、沉积、热处理、 清洗设备，并于 2025 年 3 月起新增离子注 ...

2025 年1 季度业绩：收入138 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增16%，与我们/彭博市场预期基本一致，其 中住宿+23%/交通+8%/度假+7%/商旅+12%。 中国内地酒店间夜量同比增15%+，ADR 中低个位数降幅好于行业水平。 出境机酒预定恢复至2019 年的120%，领先国际航班83%的恢复速度。 Trip.com 收入同比增近60%，占收比~13%。调整后净利润同比增3%至42亿元，超过我们/彭博市场预期 10%/9%，主因营销费用少于预期，净利率30%，同比降约4 个百分点，因Trip.com 海外品牌增加投入。 展望：预计2 季度公司收入增14%，其中酒店/交通增17%/9%，中国内地/出境酒店间夜量增10-15%/15- 20%，随着业务可比基数恢复至常态水平，预计业务量增长渐趋稳定，但行业竞争格局良好或一定程度 上缓释变现压力。预计调整后运营利润同比基本持平，利润率下降反映海外投入持续。 机构：交银国际 研究员：孙梦琪/谷馨瑜/赵丽/蔡涵 1 季度收入符合预期，利润超市场预期9%。预计2 季度收入增14%，调整后运营利润同比持平。休闲旅 游需求仍然快速增长，考虑因2 季度关税扰动对商旅出境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit exceeding market expectations, driven by controlled marketing expenses and favorable foreign exchange gains [1][3]. Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 16% to 13.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations; non-GAAP net profit reached 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 9% [1]. - The company's hotel booking revenue in Q1 2025 was 5.54 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 1.4% [1]. Development Trends - Domestic tourism demand remains robust, with hotel prices expected to stabilize. The company anticipates a mid-to-low double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic hotel night stays for Q2 2025, with a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) [1]. - For outbound travel, the company expects a 15-20% year-on-year increase in outbound flight and hotel bookings in Q2 2025, recovering to 120% of 2019 levels, despite challenges in the Thai market [2]. Growth Expectations - Trip.com is projected to achieve high growth, with international OTA bookings increasing over 60% in Q1, and inbound travel bookings nearly doubling [3]. - The company expects to maintain a 50%+ revenue growth rate for Trip.com in the second half of the year, supported by strong demand from inbound tourism policies and brand expansion into new markets [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 16.4 billion yuan and 18.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining revenue expectations [3]. - The target prices for the company's shares are set at $75.9 for US stocks and HK$588.5 for Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a potential upside of 13% and 14% from current prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Trip.com Group achieved revenue of 13.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.18%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.188 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with revenue meeting expectations and profit exceeding Bloomberg consensus [1] Revenue Performance - Q1 revenue reached 13.85 billion RMB, aligning with guidance of 13.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - Breakdown of revenue sources: - Transportation ticketing revenue: 5.42 billion RMB, up 8.4% [1] - Hotel revenue: 5.54 billion RMB, up 23.2% [1] - Vacation revenue: 0.95 billion RMB, up 7.3% [1] - Business travel revenue: 0.57 billion RMB, up 12.1% [1] - Other revenue: 1.37 billion RMB, up 32.98% [1] - Domestic hotel booking volume growth reached high teens, with ADR decline being lower than the industry average [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross profit for Q1 was 11.125 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.08%, with a gross margin of 80.44%, down 0.76 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was 4.188 billion RMB, corresponding to a net margin of 30.28%, down 3.78 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The increase in international business share and investment led to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [2] Future Projections - Expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 61.12 billion RMB and 70.96 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 14.68% and 16.10% respectively [3] - Projected Non-GAAP net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 17.383 billion RMB and 20.759 billion RMB, with corresponding net margins of 28.44% and 29.25% [3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 569.30 HKD, corresponding to an 18X PE for 2026 [3]

机构：国证国际 研究员：王婷 经营数据：1）国内：Q1 酒店间夜量同比双位数增长，ADR 同比高个位数下降，但4-5 月降幅有收窄趋 势。携程老友会用户及GMV 同比翻倍增。2）出境：出境酒店及机票预订较1Q19 增20%，泰国短期波 动，但欧洲长线游增长强劲。 3）国际：国际OTA 酒店及机票预订量同比增超60%，亚太贡献主要增量。移动端订单占比约70%，一 站式服务心智强化，有望带动交叉销售率提升。4）入境：入境游预订同比增超100%（对比整体入境游 人次同比增40%），受益于免签、离境退税等政策利好。 国内业务前景稳健，海外是投入周期。五一假期国内旅游人次/收入同比增8%/6%。公司在业绩会披 露，五一假期携程国内酒店预订同比增20%，跨境订单同比增30%（其中入境预订同比增150%），机票 价格同比增长，酒店价格同比降幅收窄至低个位数。我们预计2 季度携程收入仍快于旅游大盘增长，受 益于持续丰富的供给、用户心智、份额稳定。预计国际OTA 业务GMV 及收入维持高增速（与投入一 致），中长期收入占比有望提升至20%+，市场区域将逐步从亚太拓展中东和欧洲。 财务预测及估值：我们微调2025 年收入及利润预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 13.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 4.19 billion yuan, up 3.3%, both slightly exceeding market expectations. Domestic leisure travel demand has shown steady improvement, while outbound and international business continues to grow significantly, supported by optimized overseas marketing expenses [1][8]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the vast growth potential in overseas markets, with expectations of continued performance improvement as international operations mature and profitability enhances [1][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 44.51 billion yuan - 2024: 53.29 billion yuan (+20%) - 2025E: 61.81 billion yuan (+16%) - 2026E: 70.80 billion yuan (+15%) - 2027E: 80.91 billion yuan (+14%) [3][11]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.92 billion yuan in 2023, reaching 23.99 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13% [3][11]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 19.11 yuan in 2023 to 37.56 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.2 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [3][12]. Business Performance - The company’s revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 includes: - Accommodation bookings: 5.54 billion yuan (+23.2%) - Transportation ticketing: 5.42 billion yuan (+8.4%) - Travel vacation: 0.95 billion yuan (+7.2%) - Business travel management: 0.57 billion yuan (+12.1%) - Other businesses: 1.37 billion yuan (+33.0%) [8]. - The overall gross margin for the reporting period was 80.4%, slightly down by 0.8 percentage points, while the operating profit margin (OPM) was 29.2%, exceeding the expected 27.5% [8]. Market Outlook - The company’s outbound and international business continues to show high growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels, and international OTA platform bookings increasing by over 60% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a 15%-20% growth in outbound business for 2025, driven by high-margin outbound operations [8].

5月20日，携程发布2025年端午假期出游趋势预测报告显示，在旅游市场持续复苏的背景下，端午小长 假出行市场重回稳步增长区间。国内本地游、周边游以50%的比重占据主导地位，融合微度假、避暑以 及民俗体验等多种元素，成为端午旅游市场的显著特征。海外游中日本、韩国、泰国等中短途3小时航 程圈受游客青睐，同时入境游热度依旧。 民俗活动也带动当地旅游大幅增长。携程数据显示，端午假期，佛山整体旅游预订订单量同比去年增长 167%，酒店订单量同比去年增长145%，机票订单量同比去年增长110%。截至5月13日，端午期间汨罗 旅游预订订单量同比去年增长85%，酒店预订订单量同比去年增长88%；嘉兴旅游预订订单量同比增长 40%，酒店预订订单同比增长63%。 而位于陕西的永兴坊非遗剧场则凭借秦腔+木偶戏+华阴老腔+原生态皮影戏的"非遗组合拳"在端午档一 骑绝尘，园内四种非遗演出通场票售卖异常火爆，同比去年端午增长了12.6倍。 具体来看，携程数据显示，2025年端午假期国内周边游预订量同比增长23%，市场整体呈现稳步增长态 势。 值得一提的是，端午期间各色主题的音乐节、演唱会扎堆，也带动跨城旅游迎来明显增长。 携程平台上，端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [6][3] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding market expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, while cross-border orders increased by 30%, with inbound bookings surging by 150% [3][2] - The company is expected to continue outperforming the overall tourism market in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement [3][2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 80%, down 1 percentage point from the previous year [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 4.2 billion, maintaining a net profit margin above 30% [2][3] Business Segment Analysis - Domestic business remains strong, with double-digit growth in hotel night stays and a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) expected in Q2 [3][2] - International OTA hotel and flight bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region [3][2] - The company anticipates that international business will account for over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term, expanding into the Middle East and Europe [3][2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][2] - The target price corresponds to a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [3][2] - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million [3][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [3][6][23] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, and international bookings are expected to maintain high growth rates, contributing to long-term revenue support [3][4] - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 139 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 42 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin maintained above 30% [2][3] - The company expects continued growth in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement, with international OTA business projected to maintain high growth rates [3][5] Business Outlook - The domestic business outlook remains stable, while international operations are in an investment phase, with expectations for revenue growth to outpace the overall tourism market [3][4] - The company plans to expand its market presence from Asia-Pacific to the Middle East and Europe, with international business expected to contribute over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term [3][5] Shareholder Returns - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 13.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 4.2 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains strong, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on outbound business travel [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 61.694 billion, with a growth rate of 15.6%. This is a slight decrease from previous estimates [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 18.084 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 17.927 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 29.1% [4][14]. - **Segment Performance**: The hotel accommodation segment is projected to generate RMB 25.946 billion in 2025, while transportation ticketing is expected to contribute RMB 22.261 billion [4][8]. Market Position and Trends - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 3.20 million shares, indicating active market participation [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in hotel and transportation segments, with hotel nights in mainland China projected to increase by 10-15% and outbound hotel nights by 15-20% in the upcoming quarters [5][8]. - The competitive landscape is expected to ease some pressure on monetization, allowing for more stable profit margins moving forward [5].