第一条，是平台企业利润高企与"实体经济优先"导向的冲突。与传统行业的垄断不一样，平台企业 的垄断往往不是为了从用户身上赚取超额利润。他们信奉"羊毛出在猪身上"，给用户的价格越低、服务 越好，用户黏性就越大，进而增强平台对商家的话语权，流量费和佣金就挣得越多。所以，平台往往把 用户当上帝，转头从商家身上多挣钱。当携程被调查时，还有不少用户因为"服务好"为携程说好话，也 从侧面证明了平台依托用户获得的议价能力。 然而，这种"流量至上、成本转嫁"的模式，隐患越来越大。自从电商平台出现，平台冲击实体经济 就一直是个热门话题。商家交的流量费虽然高，但只要挣得不少，还能撑得住。问题是，商家身上 的"羊毛"是有限的，经不住平台持续狠薅。 以携程为例，其2025年前三季度的净利润达290亿元，而据媒体统计，同期整个A股旅游链各子板 块净利润合计也才约190亿元。就算剔除非经常性收入，平台的"烈火烹油"与酒店、航司、旅行社等实 体企业的经营困境，对比依然刺眼，也不符合2025年中央经济工作会议强调的"推动平台企业和平台内 经营者、劳动者共赢发展"的要求。 第二条红线更关键。平台利用流量和技术优势，制定规则、挤压商家利润，表面看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The antitrust investigation serves as a critical opportunity for the overall transformation of the platform economy, emphasizing the need for technological innovation to reduce costs and improve efficiency while ensuring fair profit distribution among all stakeholders in the platform ecosystem [1][4]. Group 1: Antitrust Investigation Context - The first antitrust case of 2026 targets Ctrip, with prior indications of issues such as "choose one from two" and technical price intervention being flagged by market regulators [2]. - The investigation suggests that Ctrip's business practices may have already been deemed problematic, raising concerns about potential penalties and their impact on future profitability and business models [2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Ctrip's situation highlights a conflict between high platform profits and the "real economy first" directive, as platforms often profit from merchants rather than users, leading to a concerning trend of cost transfer from users to merchants [3]. - Ctrip's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 29 billion yuan, while the total net profit of the entire A-share tourism chain was approximately 19 billion yuan, illustrating the stark contrast between platform profits and the struggles of traditional businesses [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Directions - The use of pricing tools by platforms like Ctrip creates a vicious cycle for merchants, forcing them into price wars that undermine profitability, which is contrary to the goal of fostering a healthy competitive environment [4]. - The investigation is not only about antitrust but also addresses the issue of "involution" in competition, aiming to create a new ecosystem where all parties can share development benefits through genuine value creation and fair profit distribution [4].

Core Viewpoint - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is investigating potential claims against Trip.com Group Limited for possible violations of federal securities laws and unlawful business practices [1][2]. Investigation Details - The investigation is focused on whether Trip.com has engaged in activities that may have harmed its stockholders [1][2]. - The firm is encouraging investors who have suffered losses to reach out for more information regarding their legal rights [3]. Company Background - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is a law firm with a national presence, representing both individual and institutional investors in various types of litigation, including securities and consumer protection [4]. Recent Developments - On January 14, 2026, Trip.com announced it received a notice of investigation from the State Administration for Market Regulations of China, related to the Anti-Monopoly Law [6]. - Following this announcement, Trip.com's American Depositary Receipt (ADR) price dropped by $12.90, or 17.05%, closing at $62.78 per ADR [6].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group Limited is under investigation for potential securities fraud and unlawful business practices, following a notice from the State Administration for Market Regulations of China regarding an anti-monopoly investigation [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation Details - Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims on behalf of investors of Trip.com, advising them to contact the firm for further information [1]. - The investigation is focused on whether Trip.com and its officers or directors have engaged in securities fraud or other unlawful business practices [1]. Group 2: Market Reaction - On January 14, 2026, Trip.com announced it received a notice of investigation from the SAMR, leading to a significant drop in its American Depositary Receipt (ADR) price, which fell by $12.90, or 17.05%, closing at $62.78 per ADR [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the antitrust investigation into Ctrip, highlighting the mixed public reactions and the company's journey to its current market dominance, which has led to various complaints from users and partners [1] Group 1: Market Position and Financial Performance - Ctrip has consolidated its market position, controlling over 70% of the online travel market, making it difficult for competitors to emerge [3] - As of Q3 2025, Ctrip's net profit margin exceeded 30%, outperforming many other internet companies, raising concerns about the methods used to achieve profitability [3] Group 2: User Experience and Complaints - Users have reported negative experiences, such as default insurance options when purchasing tickets and varying hotel prices for different users, with a reported price difference of up to 15% for the same hotel [5] - The online travel sector has seen a significant increase in complaints, with over 50,000 related complaints reported in 2024, indicating a growing dissatisfaction among consumers [8] Group 3: Merchant Challenges - Merchants face high commission rates, which can exceed 20% during peak seasons, significantly squeezing their profit margins [6] - The "choose one" rule forces merchants to limit their presence on other platforms to gain better visibility on Ctrip, a practice that has drawn regulatory scrutiny [6] Group 4: Industry Impact and Innovation - The dominance of a single player like Ctrip stifles innovation and makes it difficult for new startups to enter the market, leading to a stagnation in service improvement and technological advancement [12] - The focus on maintaining market dominance has shifted resources away from enhancing user experience, resulting in minimal genuine innovation in the online travel sector [12] Group 5: Regulatory Context and Future Implications - The investigation into Ctrip is part of a broader regulatory trend that began in 2020, targeting major internet companies to ensure fair competition and prevent monopolistic practices [14] - The outcome of this investigation could serve as a turning point for the industry, encouraging other platforms to reassess their business practices and move towards a more regulated and service-oriented market [18] Group 6: Consumer Benefits and Market Evolution - Consumers stand to benefit significantly if companies shift their focus from exploiting market power to enhancing service quality, leading to fair pricing and better choices [20] - The ongoing regulatory efforts may lead to more detailed rules governing data usage, algorithm recommendations, and platform fees, fostering a stable and predictable market environment [20] Group 7: Long-term Industry Outlook - The online travel market, valued in the hundreds of billions, requires a vibrant and competitive landscape to foster better products and services [22] - The investigation may mark a significant event in the history of China's platform economy, emphasizing that size and market share do not exempt companies from accountability [22]

Group 1 - The core issue of the investigation against Ctrip is related to its high profits conflicting with the "real economy first" directive, highlighting the tension between platform monopolies and fair market practices [1] - Ctrip's practices, such as the "price adjustment assistant" that pressures hotels to follow suit in pricing, exemplify the "involution" that the policies aim to address, leading to a detrimental cycle for the entire industry [1] - The investigation serves as a critical opportunity for the overall transformation of the platform economy, emphasizing that antitrust actions are intended to promote innovation and ensure fair competition among all market participants [2] Group 2 - The investigation into Ctrip reflects a broader trend of increasing regulatory scrutiny on platform enterprises, necessitating a shift towards creating genuine incremental value through technological innovation and fair profit distribution [1] - The evolving regulatory landscape and the awakening of various stakeholders' rights are reshaping the competitive environment for platform companies, urging them to adapt and innovate [1]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Ctrip facing antitrust complaints from the Yunnan Homestay Association, which accuses the platform of high commissions and unfair pricing practices [1] - The homestay business is struggling, with a significant decline in occupancy rates due to changing consumer preferences, leading to a competitive and price-sensitive market [1] - Prior to 2019, China's tourism industry experienced annual revenue growth of around 15%, but it has stagnated around 0% in recent years, increasing competition among platforms [1] Group 2 - Without platforms like Ctrip, most homestays would struggle to survive due to a lack of customer acquisition channels [2] - Ctrip's commission rate for hotel bookings is approximately 9%, which is lower than the 14.3% commission rate of its U.S. counterpart, Booking.com, indicating that Ctrip's rates are not excessively high by international standards [3] - The intense competition in the domestic market makes it difficult for homestays to absorb even a 9% commission, leading to concerns about sustainability [4] Group 3 - Ctrip's customer service plays a crucial role in advocating for consumer rights, which can sometimes conflict with the interests of hotels [5] - The platform's ability to negotiate on behalf of customers enhances the travel experience, particularly for affluent users who value certainty in their travel arrangements [5] - The balance between protecting consumer interests and the impact on hotel profitability raises questions about the overall fairness of the platform's practices [6]

Company Analysis - Ctrip Group (TCOM) maintains a strong competitive position in the Chinese travel industry despite facing an antitrust investigation, with a buy rating and a target price of HKD 85.00, reflecting a 31% increase from the previous target of HKD 65.00[6][3]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is HKD 47.20, a 68% increase from the previous estimate of HKD 28.10, while the 2026 EPS is expected to decrease by 7% to HKD 29.70[3]. Regulatory Impact - The potential fine for Ctrip, based on historical penalties for similar companies like Alibaba and Meituan, could range from HKD 1.8 billion to HKD 2.5 billion, representing approximately 10%-14% of the estimated annual profit for 2025[8]. - The investigation is expected to lead to regulatory changes focusing on eliminating exclusive agreements and promoting fair competition, which may shift the industry from price competition to service competition[8]. Financial Projections - Ctrip's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at HKD 16.89 billion, HKD 19.84 billion, and HKD 23.14 billion respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory[9][12]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from HKD 61.97 billion in 2025 to HKD 79.92 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.1%[12]. Market Sentiment - The current market price of Ctrip shares corresponds to a P/E ratio of approximately 14.5, which is considered low compared to historical valuations, suggesting that the market may be overreacting to the investigation[9]. - The anticipated recovery in domestic outbound tourism and Ctrip's strong penetration in overseas markets are expected to provide a favorable environment for growth[9].

Group 1 - Major stock indices futures are experiencing declines, with Dow futures down 1.64%, S&P 500 futures down 1.82%, and Nasdaq futures down 2.25% [1] - European countries are considering retaliatory measures, including the potential sale of trillions of dollars in assets, in response to the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on eight European nations starting February 1 [1] - Chinese concept stocks are also declining, with Alibaba down 2.53%, Pinduoduo down 3.79%, and Trip.com down 1.14% [1] Group 2 - Bank of America has raised its target price for IBM from $315 to $335, maintaining a "buy" rating, citing strong free cash flow prospects and an increase in high-margin software business [2] - AppLovin's stock dropped over 10% following a short report from CapitalWatch, which alleged connections to money laundering activities involving cross-border crime groups [2] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged past $4,700, with spot gold at $4,732.85 per ounce and futures at $4,741.54 per ounce, marking significant increases for gold mining companies [3] - BHP has raised its copper production forecast for the 2026 fiscal year despite a 4% year-on-year decline in quarterly copper output, now expecting total copper production of 1.9 to 2 million tons [3] Group 4 - The social media platform X, owned by Elon Musk, has officially open-sourced its new algorithm, which is now accessible on GitHub and is powered by the same Transformer architecture as the xAI Grok model [4]

Trip.com Group (TCOM) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group (TCOM) - **Market Cap**: $39.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $32.9 billion - **Current Share Price**: $61.77 - **12-Month Price Target**: $87.00 (Upside: 40.8%) [1] Key Industry Insights - **Investigation Impact**: TCOM's share price dropped approximately 20% following the announcement of an investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) of the PRC under the Anti-Monopoly Law. Historical cases (e.g., Alibaba, Meituan) were referenced to assess potential impacts on stock performance [1][2]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The investigation may lead TCOM to adopt a more restrained competitive stance, particularly in the hospitality segment, which is more fragmented compared to the airline and railway sectors dominated by state-owned companies [2][28]. - **Booking Volume vs. Take Rate**: The anticipated impact of increased competition is expected to affect booking volumes more than take rates. TCOM and Tongcheng have maintained stable hotel take rates despite competitive pressures [2][32]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2025E: Rmb 62,056.3 million - FY2026E: Rmb 69,843.2 million - FY2027E: Rmb 77,269.2 million [6][19] - **Earnings Adjustments**: Core earnings estimates for FY26-27 were revised down by 5% to 8%, with a slower hotel GMV CAGR projected at 6% (previously 13%) [19]. - **EBIT Margin**: Expected to narrow to 28.9% in FY26E from 30.4% in FY24E [19]. Key Financial Metrics - **EBITDA**: - FY2025E: Rmb 18,927.3 million - FY2026E: Rmb 21,113.1 million - FY2027E: Rmb 23,062.7 million [6][19] - **EPS**: - FY2025E: Rmb 46.30 - FY2026E: Rmb 30.04 - FY2027E: Rmb 32.16 [6][19] Risks and Considerations - **AI Adoption**: TCOM faces potential risks from AI adoption compared to peers, as competitors like Alibaba have integrated AI solutions to enhance customer experiences [21]. - **Market Structure**: The hospitality segment's fragmented nature may lead to increased competition and potential loss of exclusivity agreements, impacting TCOM's hotel business [28][29]. - **Take Rate Sensitivity**: A 10% reduction in hotel GMV could lower FY26E earnings by 5%, while a 1% change in hotel take rate could impact earnings by 8% [19]. Revenue Breakdown - **Domestic Revenue**: Approximately Rmb 40 billion or 63% of total revenue in FY2025E, with significant contributions from domestic hotels (29%) and transportation (15%) [26]. - **EBIT Contribution**: Majority of EBIT derived from domestic and outbound travel businesses, with 41% from domestic hotels [26]. Conclusion - Despite the recent volatility due to regulatory scrutiny, TCOM is positioned to benefit from the long-term growth of Chinese travel demand. The current share price correction may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors [20].