5月20日，携程发布2025年端午假期出游趋势预测报告显示，在旅游市场持续复苏的背景下，端午小长 假出行市场重回稳步增长区间。国内本地游、周边游以50%的比重占据主导地位，融合微度假、避暑以 及民俗体验等多种元素，成为端午旅游市场的显著特征。海外游中日本、韩国、泰国等中短途3小时航 程圈受游客青睐，同时入境游热度依旧。 民俗活动也带动当地旅游大幅增长。携程数据显示，端午假期，佛山整体旅游预订订单量同比去年增长 167%，酒店订单量同比去年增长145%，机票订单量同比去年增长110%。截至5月13日，端午期间汨罗 旅游预订订单量同比去年增长85%，酒店预订订单量同比去年增长88%；嘉兴旅游预订订单量同比增长 40%，酒店预订订单同比增长63%。 而位于陕西的永兴坊非遗剧场则凭借秦腔+木偶戏+华阴老腔+原生态皮影戏的"非遗组合拳"在端午档一 骑绝尘，园内四种非遗演出通场票售卖异常火爆，同比去年端午增长了12.6倍。 具体来看，携程数据显示，2025年端午假期国内周边游预订量同比增长23%，市场整体呈现稳步增长态 势。 值得一提的是，端午期间各色主题的音乐节、演唱会扎堆，也带动跨城旅游迎来明显增长。 携程平台上，端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [6][3] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding market expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, while cross-border orders increased by 30%, with inbound bookings surging by 150% [3][2] - The company is expected to continue outperforming the overall tourism market in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement [3][2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 80%, down 1 percentage point from the previous year [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 4.2 billion, maintaining a net profit margin above 30% [2][3] Business Segment Analysis - Domestic business remains strong, with double-digit growth in hotel night stays and a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) expected in Q2 [3][2] - International OTA hotel and flight bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region [3][2] - The company anticipates that international business will account for over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term, expanding into the Middle East and Europe [3][2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][2] - The target price corresponds to a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [3][2] - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million [3][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [3][6][23] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, and international bookings are expected to maintain high growth rates, contributing to long-term revenue support [3][4] - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 139 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 42 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin maintained above 30% [2][3] - The company expects continued growth in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement, with international OTA business projected to maintain high growth rates [3][5] Business Outlook - The domestic business outlook remains stable, while international operations are in an investment phase, with expectations for revenue growth to outpace the overall tourism market [3][4] - The company plans to expand its market presence from Asia-Pacific to the Middle East and Europe, with international business expected to contribute over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term [3][5] Shareholder Returns - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 13.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 4.2 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains strong, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on outbound business travel [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 61.694 billion, with a growth rate of 15.6%. This is a slight decrease from previous estimates [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 18.084 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 17.927 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 29.1% [4][14]. - **Segment Performance**: The hotel accommodation segment is projected to generate RMB 25.946 billion in 2025, while transportation ticketing is expected to contribute RMB 22.261 billion [4][8]. Market Position and Trends - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 3.20 million shares, indicating active market participation [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in hotel and transportation segments, with hotel nights in mainland China projected to increase by 10-15% and outbound hotel nights by 15-20% in the upcoming quarters [5][8]. - The competitive landscape is expected to ease some pressure on monetization, allowing for more stable profit margins moving forward [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 138 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 42 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains robust, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on business travel outbound demand [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E: RMB 61,694 million (down 1.0% from previous forecast) - 2026E: RMB 69,889 million (down 1.6%) - 2027E: RMB 78,816 million (down 2.2%) [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 18,084 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 29.3% [4]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to be RMB 17,927 million, with a net profit margin of 29.1% [4]. - **Market Position**: - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3][6]. Earnings Performance Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase in various segments: - Hotel accommodation: RMB 5,541 million (up 23% year-on-year) - Transportation ticketing: RMB 5,418 million (up 8%) - Vacation services: RMB 947 million (up 7%) - Corporate travel: RMB 573 million (up 12%) [6]. - The company’s gross profit for the first quarter was RMB 11,125 million, with a gross profit margin of 80.3% [6]. Future Outlook - For the second quarter of 2025, the company expects: - Hotel accommodation revenue to reach RMB 6,000 million (up 17%) - Transportation ticketing revenue to be around RMB 5,300 million (up 9%) - Total revenue projected at RMB 14,600 million (up 14%) [8]. - The company is also focusing on maintaining a competitive edge in the market, with expectations of stable growth in business volume as the industry recovers [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 138.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. However, the profit margin decreased compared to the previous year [1][9] - The company is strategically increasing investments in international platforms while maintaining flexibility in marketing strategies, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities [3][12] - The company is leveraging the recovery in inbound tourism and the growth of outbound travel, with significant increases in hotel bookings and international travel reservations [2][10] Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, the company reported accommodation booking revenue of 55.4 billion yuan (+23.2%), transportation ticketing revenue of 54.2 billion yuan (+8.4%), and other income sources showing substantial growth [2][10] - Domestic hotel bookings continue to grow, with a double-digit increase in room nights, while outbound travel bookings have recovered over 120%, outpacing industry capacity growth [2][10] - The international platform saw a booking increase of over 60%, driven by favorable visa policies and a significant rise in inbound tourism [2][10] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2025, attributed to increased personnel costs and strategic investments in international expansion [3][11] - The sales expense ratio for Q1 was 21.4%, which is below the annual budget, indicating a flexible approach to marketing expenditures [3][11] - The company expects profit growth to lag behind revenue growth in the short term due to margin pressures, with a projected CAGR of 11% for profits versus 15% for revenue over the next three years [12] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of 182 billion yuan, 209 billion yuan, and 244 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 19, 16, and 14 times [12][19] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 61.6 billion yuan in 2025, 71.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 81.9 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][19] - The company maintains a strong cash flow position and is proposing an additional share buyback plan, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [12]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 亿回购额度基础上提议新增港股回购计划。整体上公司作为国内领先在线旅 游龙头，基本盘稳健且护城河深厚，良好的现金流下股东回报态度更积极， 新业务打开中线成长空间，参考海外龙头值得享估值溢价，维持"优于大市"。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,627 | 71,093 | 81,870 | | (+/-%) | 122.1% | 19.7% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 15.2% | | 经调整净利润(百万元) | 13071 | 18041 | 18241 | 20938 | 24442 | | (+/-%) | 910.1% | 38.0% | 1.1% | 14.8% | 16.7% | | 每股收益（元） | 18.32 | 25.28 | 25.56 | 29.34 | 34.25 | | EBIT Margin | 46.3% | 33. ...

国内旅游需求稳健，酒店价格下滑有望收窄 1)国内酒店：1Q25公司住宿预订收入55.4亿元，同增23%，超市场预期1.4%;1Q25国内酒店预订量同增 接近20%，需求稳健。今年五一公司国内酒店预订量同增20%，酒店ADR基本和去年持平，节假日出行 需求旺盛。该行预计2Q25公司国内酒店间夜量维持中低两位数同比增长;2)国内交通：公司预计2Q25机 票、火车票预订量同增中低个位数，该行预计收入同比有望持平。 泰国需求尚未回暖，旅游目的地分流 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，基本维持携程集团-S(09961)25/26年收入预期，考虑到费控好于 预期，上调25/26年非通用准则净利润预测3%/3%至164和189亿元。维持跑赢行业评级，该行维持美股 和港股的目标价75.9美元和588.5港元，对应美股和港股的2025年非通用准则市盈率估值24倍和24倍，较 当前股价分别有13%和14%的上行空间，公司目前交易于美股21倍和18倍，港股21倍和18倍的25/26年非 通用准则市盈率。 中金主要观点如下： 1Q25非通用准则净利润高于一致预期 公司公布1Q25业绩：收入同增16%至138亿元，符合一致预期;非通 ...

今日早参 2025 年 5 月 21 日 4 月财政数据点评 低基数下 4月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比进一步上行至 12.9%，显示财政政策总体维持温和宽松态势、但财政扩张动能环比季节性 放缓。一般公共预算支出增速较 3 月略回升至 5.8%，政府性基金支出在低基 数下大幅走高至 44.7%，专项债发行前置推动政府性基金支出持续回升；4 月广义财政收入同比亦转正至 2.7%，主要受政府性基金收入大幅回升的提 振，同时一季度名义增速实现良好开局、亦可能部分体现在财政收入改善层 面。财政支出结构中，城乡社区事务、交通运输、卫生健康等支出同比回 升。4 月广义财政赤字录得 3,367 亿元、较去年同期多增 2,479 亿元、财政 政策保持宽松态势。此外，低基数下财政存款同比从 3 月的 17%上行至 21.5%，或反映政府发债融资前置、但财政资金拨付仍待提速。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦程度超预期、内需修复力度不及预期。 研报发布日期：2025-05-20 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 吴宛忆 SAC:S0570524090005 SFC:BVN199 策略 ...

证券研究报告 携程集团 (TCOM US/9961 HK) 1Q25 业绩：看好海外长期成长 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 20 日│美国/中国香港 | 互联网 | 盈利预测与估值 我们预测公司 25-27 年收入分别为 613/712/823 亿美元（基本不变），调整后 归母净利润分别 193/225/260 亿美元（25 年下调 2%，26、27 年不变），其中 25 年主要为小幅调高了联营企业亏损等非经营项目，在经营层面我们认为仍随 着营销投放优化向好。因旅游服务消费的需求韧性，25 年可比公司 VA 的 PE 估值较前值 18.3 倍 PE 抬升至 21.3 倍，考虑到公司虽在国内 OTA 板块的龙头 地位稳固，但短期内因增加国际业务投入利润端有小幅影响，因此在行业平均 PE 基础上给予一定折价，且后续海外投入仍有不确定性，小幅增加折价幅度， 以 25 年 19 倍（前值 18 倍）PE 给予携程美股目标价 78.0 美元（前值：75.5 美元）；港股目标价 559.4 港币（前值：563.7 港币）。 风 ...