研究报告Research Report 25 Mar 2024 中通快递（开曼） ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US) 业绩符合预期，分红、回购超预期 Results in Line with Expectations; Dividends and Share Repurchase Program Exceed Expectations 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 维持优于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM 公司发布 23Q4 及 23年全年业绩： 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 23Q4 公司实现营业收入 106.2 亿元/+7.6%，实现净利润 22.1 亿元 现价 US$21.02 目标价 US$31.40 /+3.8%，调整后净利润 22.1 亿元/+4.4%。23 年全年公司营业收入 384.2 亿元/+8.6%，实现净利润 87.5 亿元/+31.5%，调整后净利润 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 90.06 亿元/+32.3%。 ...

ZTO Express (ZTO) reported fourth-quarter 2023 earnings of 38 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and improved 2.7% year over year.Total revenues of $1,495.7 million improved year over year.Detailed Operational StatisticsRevenues from the core express delivery business jumped 8% year over year, owing to a 32% increase in parcel volume and an 18.2% decrease in parcel unit price. Parcel volume market share increased 32% from the year-ago reported quarter.Revenues from freight f ...

Exhibit 99.2 Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this announcement. Under our weighted voting rights structure, our share capital comprises Class A ordinary shares and Class B ordinary shares. Each ...

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call March 19, 2024 8:30 PM ET Company Participants Sophie Li - Investor Relations Director Meisong Lai - Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Huiping Yan - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Ronald Keung - Goldman Sachs Qianlei Fan - Morgan Stanley Aaron Luo - UBS Operator Good day and welcome to the ZTO Express Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Results Announcement Conference Call. All participants will ...

Company Overview - ZTO is a leading express delivery company in China, utilizing a distinct Network Partner Business Model (NPM)[5, 6, 17] - The company has achieved significant parcel volume growth, with a 48% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2011 to 2023[15] - ZTO's market share in parcel volume was 22.9% in 2023[15] Competitive Advantages - ZTO's "shared-success" philosophy underpins its distinct partner network and contributes to its industry leadership[21, 34] - The company has a superior scale and reach, including 99% county-level city coverage and 96% village-level city coverage[42] - ZTO operates approximately 10,000 self-owned line-haul vehicles and 99 sorting hubs[13, 42] Strategies and Innovation - ZTO is focused on maintaining high service quality and customer satisfaction while maximizing earnings upon achieving targeted volume growth[69, 94] - The company is expanding its logistics ecosystem, including LTL, cloud warehousing, international services, and cold chain solutions[72, 73, 74, 75, 80] - ZTO has approximately 110,000 last-mile posts covering all provinces and approximately 300 cities in China[43, 81] Financial Performance - ZTO's strong operating cash flow supports continued investment in growth, with RMB 13361 million in 2023[126] - The company is committed to "Dual Carbon Reduction" through ESG practices, including low-carbon delivery and green packaging[83, 85]

Financial Performance - Full Year Adjusted Net Income reached RMB9.0 billion, growing 32.3% year over year[1] - Fourth Quarter Revenues were RMB10,619.4 million (US$1,495.7 million), a 7.6% increase from RMB9,871.3 million in Q4 2022[2] - Gross profit for Q4 was RMB3,128.2 million (US$440.6 million), up 12.8% from RMB2,772.6 million in the same period last year[2] - Net income for Q4 was RMB2,209.8 million (US$311.2 million), reflecting a 3.8% increase from RMB2,129.3 million in Q4 2022[2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year was RMB14,107.3 million (US$1,987.0 million), a 25.0% increase from RMB11,289.1 million in 2022[3] - Total Revenues increased by 8.6% to RMB38,418.9 million (US$5,411.2 million) from RMB35,376.9 million last year, driven by a 9.8% increase in express delivery revenue[17] - Net income rose by 31.5% to RMB8,754.5 million (US$1,233.0 million) compared to RMB6,659.0 million in the previous year[24] - Basic and diluted earnings per ADS attributable to ordinary shareholders were RMB10.83 (US$1.53), up from RMB8.41 last year, reflecting a significant increase[25] - Adjusted EBITDA reached RMB14,107.3 million (US$1,987.0 million), compared to RMB11,289.1 million last year, indicating strong operational performance[25] - Operating margin improved to 26.0%, up from 21.9% in the previous year, showcasing enhanced profitability[22] Expenses and Income - Total Operating Expenses were RMB1,654.6 million (US$233.0 million), an increase from RMB1,302.8 million last year, primarily due to higher compensation and benefit expenses[21] - Interest income increased to RMB706.8 million (US$99.5 million) from RMB503.7 million last year, reflecting improved financial management[22] - Gross Profit increased by 29.0% to RMB11,662.5 million (US$1,642.6 million), with a gross margin rate improvement to 30.4% from 25.6% last year[21] - Other operating income, net was RMB770.7 million (US$108.5 million), slightly down from RMB774.6 million last year, indicating stable supplementary income sources[22] - Interest expenses for Q4 2023 decreased to RMB61,804 from RMB76,147 in Q4 2022, a reduction of 18.7%[47] - Income tax expenses for the year ended December 31, 2023, were RMB1,938,600, up from RMB1,633,330 in 2022, reflecting an increase of 18.7%[47] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company approved a regular dividend policy starting with US$0.62 per share for 2023, with a minimum payout ratio of 40% for 2024[7] - The company declared a cash dividend of US$0.62 per ADS, representing a 68% increase compared to the previous fiscal year[26] - The Company has approved a semi-annual regular cash dividend policy starting from 2024, with a minimum of 40% of distributable profit to be distributed each year[27] - The share repurchase program has been increased to US$2.0 billion, with US$437.0 million remaining available for repurchase as of December 31, 2023[28] Operational Metrics - Annual parcel volume increased to 30.2 billion, expanding market share to 22.9%[1] - The number of parcel delivery outlets exceeded 31,000, with over 10,000 self-owned line-haul vehicles as of December 31, 2023[4] - The core express average selling price (ASP) declined by 11.3% in 2023, primarily due to intense price competition[7] - The parcel volume for 2024 is expected to be between 34.73 billion and 35.64 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15% to 18%[29] Cash Flow and Assets - Capital spending for 2023 was RMB6.7 billion, with operating cash flow growing 16.4% to RMB13.4 billion[7] - Total current assets increased to RMB 26,953,548 as of December 31, 2023, from RMB 24,475,027 as of December 31, 2022, representing an increase of 10.1%[43] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were RMB 12,333,884, up from RMB 11,692,773 at the end of 2022, indicating an increase of 5.5%[46] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 28,184,813 as of December 31, 2023, from RMB 24,051,116 as of December 31, 2022, marking an increase of 17.2%[43] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 13,360,967, an increase of 16.4% from RMB 11,479,308 in 2022[44] - Total equity increased to RMB 60,280,408 as of December 31, 2023, from RMB 54,472,470 as of December 31, 2022, reflecting an increase of 10.5%[43] - Short-term bank borrowing rose to RMB 7,765,990 as of December 31, 2023, compared to RMB 5,394,423 as of December 31, 2022, an increase of 43.9%[43] Earnings and Share Metrics - Basic earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 10.83, down from RMB 10.60 in 2022, reflecting a decrease of 1.9%[41] - Basic earnings per share for Q4 2023 was RMB 2.72, up from RMB 2.67 in Q4 2022, indicating a 1.9% increase[48] - Diluted earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 10.60, compared to RMB 8.36 in 2022, marking a 26.8% increase[48] - The weighted average shares used in calculating diluted earnings per share for Q4 2023 was 837,291,253, slightly down from 841,226,602 in Q4 2022[48] Other Financial Metrics - Adjusted net income for the year ended December 31, 2023, reached RMB 9,005,920, up 32.5% from RMB 6,805,999 in 2022[47] - EBITDA for Q4 2023 was RMB 3,647,210, a 7.1% increase compared to RMB 3,406,549 in Q4 2022[47] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 14,107,290, reflecting a 25.5% growth from RMB 11,289,073 in 2022[47] - The Company reported an income from operations of RMB 10,007,924 for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to RMB 7,736,481 in 2022, marking an increase of approximately 29.5%[40] - Interest income for the three months ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 201,383, compared to RMB 111,768 for the same period in 2022, reflecting an increase of approximately 80%[40] - The company reported a foreign currency translation adjustment of RMB 70,677 for the three months ended December 31, 2023, compared to RMB 35,752 for the same period in 2022, indicating a significant increase[41] - The effective exchange rate used for translating Renminbi amounts into U.S. dollars was RMB 7.0999 to US$1 as of December 29, 2023[30] - The Company emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP financial measures for understanding underlying business trends and operational performance[32]

RMB9.0 Billion Full Year Adjusted Net Income Grew 32.3% 30.2 Billion Annual Parcels Expanded Market Share to 22.9%US$0.62 per Share Annual Dividend Increased 68%Upsizes Share Repurchase Program by USD500 million SHANGHAI, March 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO and SEHK: 2057), a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China ("ZTO" or the "Company"), today announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2023[1]. The ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express is set to report its fourth-quarter 2023 results on March 19, with a history of outperforming earnings estimates, averaging a 17.31% beat over the last four quarters [1]. Group 1: Q4 Expectations - Fourth-quarter 2023 revenues for ZTO Express are anticipated to benefit from strong performance in the express delivery services unit [2]. - However, rising operating expenses, particularly in selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A), are expected to negatively impact ZTO's profitability, with SG&A costs driven up by increases in compensation, benefits, and office expenditures [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ZTO's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings has been revised downward by 7.5% over the past 90 days [2]. Group 2: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for ZTO Express, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3]. - A combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) typically increases the likelihood of an earnings beat, which is not applicable in this case [3]. Group 3: Highlights of Q3 - In the third quarter of 2023, ZTO Express reported earnings of 39 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents, and showing year-over-year improvement [4]. - Total revenues for Q3 were $1,244 million, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,452.5 million [4].

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is set to release its unaudited financial results for Q4 and the fiscal year 2023 on March 19, 2024, after U.S. market closure [1] Group 1: Financial Results Announcement - The unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023, and the annual results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023, will be announced after the U.S. market closes on March 19, 2024 [1] - An earnings conference call will be hosted by ZTO's management team at 8:30 P.M. U.S. Eastern Time on March 19, 2024, which corresponds to 8:30 A.M. Beijing Time on March 20, 2024 [1] Group 2: Conference Call Details - Dial-in details for the earnings conference call include numbers for the United States, Hong Kong, Singapore, Mainland China, and international callers [2] - A replay of the conference call will be available until March 26, 2024, with specific numbers provided for different regions [2] - A live and archived webcast of the conference call will be accessible on the Company's investor relations website [2] Group 3: Company Overview - ZTO Express is recognized as a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China, providing express delivery and value-added logistics services through a nationwide network [3] - The company operates a scalable network partner model to support the growth of e-commerce in China, focusing on pickup and last-mile delivery services while managing critical line-haul transportation and sorting [3]

Core Insights - ZTO Express held its National Network Conference on January 23, 2024, to review 2023 achievements and outline 2024 goals, focusing on high-quality development of its network [1][3] Company Performance - In 2023, ZTO achieved a parcel volume of 30.2 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 23.8% and capturing a market share of 22.9%, further solidifying its leadership position [2] Strategic Focus for 2024 - The conference emphasized the need to integrate "development" and "security," with key tasks including prioritizing safety, enhancing capabilities, strengthening services, improving efficiency, ensuring transparency, activating potential, promoting collaboration, and building a strong team [3] Industry Outlook - The chairman highlighted the potential of the Chinese express delivery market and ZTO's advantages in scale, cost, foundation, brand, and network, aiming for excellence in core business, ecological expansion, and channel building [4] Business Model - ZTO operates a scalable network partner model, which supports the growth of e-commerce in China by leveraging network partners for pickup and last-mile delivery while controlling critical line-haul transportation and sorting [5]