证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 弱势行情之后，阶段性 反弹临近 ——2024年9月资产配置报告 HWABAO SECURITIES 2024年9月3日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 销售服务电话：021-20515355 ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 美联储降息、美国大选第二场辩论将至，外部波动或再度放大 Ø 美联储降息即将落地，"买预期、卖现实"再现？ u 当前市场对美联储降息、经济放缓而非衰退的乐观预期已充分计价，若美联储 降息落地且对未来降息节奏指引并不激进，则市场或将获利兑现，导致美股短 期调整； u 降息超预期的前提是经济数据出现衰退信号，则会引发市场新一轮下挫，股跌 债涨。 海外宏观 u 美国大选不确定性仍然较高，或放大外部波动 u 哈里斯支持率领先特朗普，但领先优势不明显，大选变数仍然较大。 u 美国大选第二场辩论即将举行，辩论结果不确定性偏高，或加剧市场波动。 Ø 地缘风险仍需警惕 u 中东局势复杂多变，以色列与巴勒斯坦、黎巴嫩、伊朗冲突风险仍然偏高；俄 乌 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hydrogen energy industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The hydrogen energy market is expected to see growth in both supply and demand due to the implementation of relevant policies, with an increase in market scale anticipated [3] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure development, particularly in hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen storage and transportation, and core components of fuel cells [3] Monthly Data Changes - In July, the price of high-purity hydrogen in Guangdong decreased by 11.74% to 2.03 CNY/Nm3, while other markets remained stable [7] - The total capacity of renewable hydrogen production projects in China reached 969.7 MW, a slight decrease of 1.02% from the previous month [7] - The number of operational hydrogen refueling stations in China is 368, with a total daily supply capacity of 279,000 kg [7] Policy Developments - The central government has issued documents to promote the full-chain development of hydrogen energy, indicating a strong emphasis on the industry at the macro level [9][10] - Local governments, such as Shanghai and Beijing, are taking steps to standardize and promote the construction of hydrogen refueling stations and fuel cell vehicles [19][20] Investment and Financing Events - Notable financing activities include a 400 million C+ round financing for Suzhou Kairun New Materials and the completion of a listing application for Guofu Hydrogen Energy on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [21][22][23]

2024 年 09 月 03 日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 供给、消费端氢价持续降低，加氢站日供给能力提升 氢能月度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 7 月广东省高纯氢价格有所回落，可再生能源制取规模小幅回落：7 月上海/ 北京/广东/河南/河北高纯氢（≥4N）市场主流价格为 2.7/2.3/2.03/2.1/2.2 元 /Nm3，其中广东市场环比上月下跌 11.74%，其他市场环比上月均无明显变化。 根据中国氢能联盟的统计数据，7 月中国氢价指数生产侧指数保持不变，为 29.3 元/千克。从可再生能源制氢情况来看，7 月全国共有 78 个可再生制氢能源项 目，环比持平，合计可再生能源制氢规模达 969.7MW，环比下降 1.02%，从 地区来看已覆盖 25 个省（直辖市，自治区），涉及 70 家企业。技术路线以碱 性电解水制氢（AE）为主，项目规模达到 841.4 兆瓦，占比 86.8%；电力来源 主要来源于光伏，项目规模达到 712.8 兆瓦，占比 73.5%；应用方向以交通为 主，项目规模达到 306.8 兆瓦，占比 31.6%。 邮箱： ...

2024 年 09 月 03 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 铁矿发货量回到近四年高位，港口库存环比增加 340 万吨 铁矿行业周度报告 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 供应：本周（8.24-8.30）进口铁矿石发运量增长至近四年同期高位，到港量 大幅回落 14.93%。澳洲、巴西本周发货量（14 个港口）合计 2615.4 万吨，环 比 11.36%，同比 7.7%，居于近四年同期高位，增量主要来自巴西。澳洲、巴 西发货量（14 个港口合计）分别为 1629.7 万吨、985.6 万吨，环比分别为-1.03%、 40.42%。四大矿山发货至中国的量合计 2086 万吨，环比 7.3%。其中力拓、必 和必拓、淡水河谷、FMG 本周至中国的发货量分别为 503.9 万吨、479.2 万吨、 785.1 万吨、317.8 万吨，环比分别为-2.61%、4.36%、27.29%、-9.36%。到 港方面，中国 26 港到港量 2100.8 万吨，环比-14.93%；中国北方港口到港量 1134.6 万吨，环比-9.5% ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Recommended (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on the upward trend in upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [2][3] - The government has introduced a new scheme to promote the replacement of old electric bicycles, indicating the increasing importance of the electric bicycle industry [2][3] - The domestic new energy vehicle market continues to grow rapidly, supported by favorable policies, with a cumulative battery installation volume of 244.9 GWh from January to July 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.8% [2][3] Summary by Sections Upstream Materials - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaged 72,000 CNY/ton this week, up 1.41% from last week, while battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 75,000 CNY/ton, up 1.35% [8][9] - The supply of lithium carbonate is sufficient, with a slight increase in domestic production [11] - The average price of lithium hydroxide is 72,500 CNY/ton, down slightly from last week [14][15] Midstream Materials - The price of ternary materials remains stable, with the market price for NCM523 at 109,000 CNY/ton and NCM622 at 109,500 CNY/ton [19][20] - The negative electrode material market is characterized by high supply and stable prices, with a reference price of 33,138 CNY/ton [25][28] - Electrolyte prices remain unchanged, with the average price for lithium iron phosphate electrolyte at 18,300 CNY/ton [34][36] Downstream Cells - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is 0.46 CNY/Wh, remaining stable [47] - The cumulative production of power and other batteries reached 91.8 GWh in July 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [48]

2024 年 09 月 02 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 钢材消费有回暖迹象，钢价在供减需增下震荡走强 钢铁行业周度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 供应：本周（8.24-8.30）日均铁水产量环比下降 3.57 万吨，成材端的供给呈 现长增板降的格局。本周高炉开工率（样本数 247 家）76.41%，环比下降 1.06 个百分点；日均铁水产量 220.89 万吨，环比下降 3.57 万吨，跌幅为-1.59%， 高炉开工率、日均铁水产量降速均有所放缓。五大材总产量 778.66 万吨，环比 -0.04%，基本持平。长板材走势出现分化，建材产量合计 240.72 万吨，环比 1.54%，供给出现反弹；板材产量合计 537.94 万吨，环比-0.7%，下滑主要来 自热卷。本周螺纹钢、线材、中厚板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的周度产量分别为 162.26 万吨、78.46 万吨、149.74 万吨、305.05 万吨、83.15 万吨，环比分别 为 1.03%、2.59%、0.62%、-1.68%、0.46%。本周高炉铁水产量下滑至 220 万吨附近，同比 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overseas market's interest rate cut expectations have not further increased, leading to a shift from rebound to a more volatile stance, with ongoing vigilance required for geopolitical risks [4][5] - Domestic market demand remains insufficient, and weak expectations persist, suggesting an increased likelihood of additional policy measures to alleviate pessimistic sentiment [4][5] - A-share market activity remains low, with average daily trading volume slightly recovering to 606.4 billion yuan, an increase of 63.9 billion yuan from the previous week, but still in a generally subdued state [4][12] Group 2 - The report notes a reversal in market style, with previously strong-performing bank stocks adjusting, while most other sectors are experiencing a rebound from oversold conditions [4][5] - The report highlights that only the technology sector, particularly electronics, has shown better mid-term performance, suggesting that its rebound may be more sustainable than other sectors [4] - There is a potential short-term disturbance for the banking sector due to expected adjustments in existing mortgage rates, as reported by Bloomberg [4] Group 3 - The report tracks the valuation levels of major indices, indicating a notable decline in the valuation percentiles of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300, while the valuation of small-cap indices has seen some recovery [6][7] - A-share risk premium has risen again, reaching a new high for the year, reflecting the weak equity market conditions [8][9] - The turnover rates of various indices have generally increased, with significant recoveries noted in the Wind Micro-Cap Index and the ChiNext Index [10][11]

动力电池行业周报：四川省首个固态电池创新产业园在 宜宾开工，产能规划 40GWh 2024.08.17-2024.08.23 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 电力设备及新能源 | 投资要点 | | 投资评级：推荐（维持） | 行业数据：1）本周工业级碳酸锂市场均价 7.05 万元/吨，较上周上涨 0.1 万 元/吨，涨幅 1.44% ；电池级碳酸锂市场均价 7.3 万元/吨，较上周上涨 0.1 万 | | 分析师：胡鸿宇 | 元 / 吨，涨幅 1.39%。2 ）三元材料 523 单晶动力市场价格在 10.9 万元/ 吨， | | 分析师登记编码： S0890521090003 | 较上周价格下调 0.05 万元/ 吨 ...

2024 年 08 月 28 日 证券研究报告 | 银行理财周报 银行理财周报 现金管理类理财产品近 7 日年化收益率 1.74% 银行理财产品周数据 分析师：张菁 分析师登记编码：S0890519100001 电话：021-20321551 邮箱：zhangjing@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《 1-3 年期 封闭 式固收 理财收益 3.23%，呈走弱趋势—银行理财产品周数 据》2024-08-21 2、《再降 4BP,现金管理类理财近 7 日年 化收益率 1.76%—银行理财产品周数据》 2024-08-14 3、《现金管理类理财产品近 7 日年化收 益率 1.80%—银行理财产品周数据》 2024-08-07 4、《存款利率再下调，短期限理财收益 高出 100BP—银行理财产品周数据》 2024-07-31 5、《封闭式产品达标率 84%，高于平均 水 平 — 银 行 理 财 产 品 周 数 据 》 2024-07-24 投资要点 现金管理类理财产品近 7 日年化收益率 1.74%。截止 2024 年 8 月 25 日， 现金管理类理财产品近 7 日年化收益率为 1.74 ...

2024 年 08 月 28 日 证券研究报告 | 银行理财周报 银行理财周报 现金管理类理财产品近 7 日年化收益率 1.74% 银行理财产品周数据 分析师：张菁 分析师登记编码：S0890519100001 电话：021-20321551 邮箱：zhangjing@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《 1-3 年期 封闭 式固收 理财收益 3.23%，呈走弱趋势—银行理财产品周数 据》2024-08-21 2、《再降 4BP,现金管理类理财近 7 日年 化收益率 1.76%—银行理财产品周数据》 2024-08-14 3、《现金管理类理财产品近 7 日年化收 益率 1.80%—银行理财产品周数据》 2024-08-07 4、《存款利率再下调，短期限理财收益 高出 100BP—银行理财产品周数据》 2024-07-31 5、《封闭式产品达标率 84%，高于平均 水 平 — 银 行 理 财 产 品 周 数 据 》 2024-07-24 投资要点 现金管理类理财产品近 7 日年化收益率 1.74%。截止 2024 年 8 月 25 日， 现金管理类理财产品近 7 日年化收益率为 1.74 ...