北京大学国民经济研究中心 政策效应释放，内需修复继续 点评报告 A0012-20250317 | | | | | 北大国民 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上年同 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 经济研究 | Wind 市场 | | | 期值 | | | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | | | | 经济增长 | 值 | | | 工业增加 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.13 | | 值同比(%) | | | | | | | 固定资产 | | | | | | | 投资累计 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.76 | | 同比(%) | | | | | | | 社会消费 | | | | | | | 品零售额 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | | 出口同比 同比(%) | 7.1 | 10.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | | (%) | | | | | | | 进口同比 | 3.5 | 1.0 | -8.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | | (%) | | | | | | | ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 政策效应释放，内需修复继续 点评报告 A0012-20250317 | | | | | 北大国民 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上年同 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 经济研究 | Wind 市场 | | | 期值 | | | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | | | | | 值 | | | | | | 经济增长 | | | | 工业增加 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.13 | | 值同比(%) | | | | | | | 固定资产 | | | | | | | 投资累计 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.76 | | 同比(%) | | | | | | | 社会消费 | | | | | | | 品零售额 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | | 同比(%) | | | | | | | 出口同比 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | | (%) | | | | | | | 进口同比 | 3.5 | 1.0 | -8.4 | 2.7 ...

s 北京大学国民经济研究中心 受春节错位影响,CPI 增速下行 蔡含篇 CPI、PPI 点评报告 A0101-20250310 北京大学国民经济研究中心 | | | | 北大国民 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 2 | 上年同 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 经济研究 | Wind 市场 | | 月 | 期值 | | | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | | | | | 值 | | | CPI 同比 (%) | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.4 | | PPI 同比 %) | -2.7 | -2.3 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -2.1 | 宏观经济研究课题组 学术指导: 刘伟 组长: 苏剑 要点 课题组成员: ● 春节错位, CPI 增速阶段性下降 供需结构无明显变化,PPI 增速继续低位前行 ● 需求不足问题仍需重视,未来价格表现或有改善 蔡含篇 010-62767607 gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 扫描二维码或发邮件订阅 第一时间阅读本中心报告 WAS NOT 1999 北京大学国民经济研究中心 ...

受春节错位影响，CPI 增速下行 CPI、PPI 点评报告 A0101-20250310 | | | | | 北大国民 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 2 | 上年同 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 经济研究 | Wind 市场 | | 月 | 期值 | | | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | | | | | 值 | | | CPI 同比 | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.4 | | (%) | | | | | | | PPI 同比 | -2.7 | -2.3 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -2.1 | | (%) | | | | | | 北京大学国民经济研究中心 宏观经济研究课题组 北京大学国民经济研究中心 陈丽娜 联系人： 蔡含篇 联系方式： 010-62767607 gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 学术指导：刘伟 组长：苏剑 要点 ● 春节错位， CPI 增速阶段性下降 ● 供需结构无明显变化，PPI 增速继续低位前行 ● 需求不足问题仍需重视，未来价格表现或有改善 课题组成员： 蔡含篇 扫描二维码或发邮 ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 出口韧性复工复产步伐加快，进出口增速回暖 基数效应影响，进、出口额增速双收缩 进出口点评报告 A0306-20250310 | | | | | 北大国民 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 02 | 上年同 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 经济研究 | Wind 市场 | | 月 | 期值 | | | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | | | | | 值 | | | 出口同比 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | | (%) | | | | | | | 进口同比 (%) | 3.5 | 1.0 | -8.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | | 贸易差额 （亿美元） | 1251.6 | 1048.4 | 1705.2 | 1331 | 1207 | 组长：苏剑 课题组成员： 蔡含篇 陈丽娜 要点 ● 高基数效应，出口额增速下降 ● 基数效应叠加结构调整，进口额增速继续 下行 ● 未来展望：外部环境复杂多变，外贸增速 震荡前行 联系人：蔡含篇 联系方式： gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 扫描二维码或 ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 出口韧性复工复产步伐加快，进出口增速回暖 基数效应影响，进、出口额增速双收缩 进出口点评报告 A0306-20250310 | | | | | 北大国民 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 02 | 上年同 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 经济研究 | Wind 市场 | | 月 | 期值 | | | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | | | | | 值 | | | 出口同比 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | | (%) | | | | | | | 进口同比 | 3.5 | 1.0 | -8.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | | (%) | | | | | | | 贸易差额 | 1251.6 | 1048.4 | 1705.2 | 1331 | 1207 | | （亿美元） | | | | | | 组长：苏剑 课题组成员： 蔡含篇 陈丽娜 | 月 | 期值 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 受春节错位影响，CPI 增速下行 CPI、PPI 点评报告 A0101-20250310 | | | | | 北大国民 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 2 | 上年同 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 经济研究 | Wind 市场 | | 月 | 期值 | | | 中心预测 | 预测均值 | | | | | | 值 | | | CPI 同比 | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.4 | | (%) | | | | | | | PPI 同比 | -2.7 | -2.3 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -2.1 | | (%) | | | | | | 北京大学国民经济研究中心 宏观经济研究课题组 学术指导：刘伟 组长：苏剑 要点 ● 春节错位， CPI 增速阶段性下降 ● 供需结构无明显变化，PPI 增速继续低位前行 ● 需求不足问题仍需重视，未来价格表现或有改善 课题组成员： 蔡含篇 联系人： 蔡含篇 联系方式： 010-62767607 gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn 扫描二维码或发邮件订阅 ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 春节错位叠加政策效应释放，经济恢复继续 预测报告 B0011-20250227 | 上年同 | 上年值 | | 上期值 | 2025 年 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期值 | | | | 月预测 | | 经济增长 | | | | | | 工业增加 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | | 值同比(%) | | | | | | 固定资产投资 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | | 累计同比(%) | | | | | | 社会消费品零 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 5.3 | | 售额同比(%) | | | | | | 出口同比(%) | 5.9 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 4.3 | | 进口同比(%) | 1.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.7 | | 贸易差额 （亿美元） | 9922 | 1251.6 | 1048.4 | 1331 | | 通货膨胀 | | | | | | CPI 同比(%) | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.5 | | PPI 同比(%) | -2.2 | ...

Price Trends - In January 2025, the CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from December 2024, and rose 0.7% month-on-month[7] - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year in January 2025, unchanged from December 2024, indicating persistent economic pressure and insufficient effective demand[7] Monetary and Credit Conditions - The new social financing scale in January 2025 was 70,600 billion RMB, an increase of 5,866 billion RMB year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[8] - New RMB loans amounted to 51,300 billion RMB in January 2025, up 2,100 billion RMB year-on-year, significantly higher than market forecasts[8] - M2 at the end of January 2025 was 318.52 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[51] Economic Outlook - The marginal improvement in corporate expectations is reflected in the stable scissors difference between social financing and M2 growth rates, indicating a relative balance in liquidity[10] - The ongoing "stabilization growth" policies are expected to continue supporting economic recovery, despite the need for further stimulus measures[6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2025, the CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up 0.4 percentage points from December 2024[6] - The CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month, also an increase of 0.7 percentage points from December 2024[6] - The impact of last year's price changes was approximately -0.2 percentage points, while new price increases contributed about 0.7 percentage points[9] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January 2025, the PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from December 2024[27] - The PPI saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from December 2024[27] - The current economic pressure and insufficient effective demand continue to affect PPI growth, which remains at a low level[28] Group 3: Economic Conditions - The warm winter and the Spring Festival effect contributed to a slight increase in CPI growth, while food prices remained stable[10] - The demand issue remains critical, with expectations for future price performance to improve but still constrained by insufficient consumer demand[38] - The economic structure adjustment continues, with traditional industries facing contraction while high-tech industries are growing[27]