
Search documents
贝壳-W:二赛道业务收入贡献持续提升,可持续成长动力充足
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-29 03:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous growth driven by its dual business segments, with significant contributions from home decoration and rental services [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached 73.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [2]. - The company’s total transaction volume increased by 26.8%, indicating strong market performance [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 62 billion RMB, stable compared to the previous year, with a net income of 77 billion RMB, up 30.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 22.7%, a decrease attributed to rising fixed salary costs and a decline in the profit margin from existing home sales [2]. - The adjusted net profit for the year is projected to be 80 billion RMB, 96 billion RMB, and 109 billion RMB for the next three years, respectively [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The existing home business saw a decline in profit margin, while the new home business outperformed expectations, with transaction volume reaching 4,778 billion RMB, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [2]. - The new home business generated a transaction fee rate of 3.4%, achieving a historical high, with commission income from state-owned developers rising to 58% [2]. - Revenue from home decoration and rental services grew by 62.0% year-on-year, contributing to 35.8% of total revenue, marking a historical high [2]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from recent policy adjustments in real estate credit and transaction taxes, which are likely to lead to significant growth in overall transaction volume [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 66.9 HKD / 25.6 USD, based on a projected PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [2].
苹果:iPhone量价小幅增长,AI为未来软硬件收入成长关键
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-27 13:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of $255.00, indicating a potential upside of 9.50% from the current stock price of $232.87 [2][4][17]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of $94.9 billion for the quarter, a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $94.4 billion. Product revenue was $70 billion, up 4.1%, while service revenue reached $25 billion, growing 11.9% [15][21]. - The gross profit was $43.9 billion, with a gross margin of 46.2%, exceeding the expected 46.0%. However, net profit fell to $14.7 billion, a decline of 35.8% year-over-year due to a one-time tax payment of $10.2 billion [15][22]. - The report highlights the launch of the iPhone 16, which features upgraded memory and processing capabilities, and anticipates that AI developments will drive future growth in both hardware and software revenues [16][38]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit projections for FY2024 to FY2027 are as follows: $93.7 billion, $110.9 billion, $119.3 billion, and $126.5 billion respectively, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) expected to grow from $6.1 to $8.9 over the same period [12][17]. - Total operating revenue forecasts for the next few years are $391.0 billion for FY2024, $415.6 billion for FY2025, $442.3 billion for FY2026, and $464.0 billion for FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% [13][49]. - The report indicates that the company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $15.7 billion, with a net cash position of $5 billion, and it returned over $29 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends [22][37]. Product Performance - iPhone revenue for the quarter was $46.2 billion, showing a 6% year-over-year increase, with an average selling price (ASP) of $825, up $8 from the previous year [32][36]. - Service revenue reached $25 billion, marking a 12% increase, with over 1 billion paid subscribers across various services [37][40]. - The iPad and Mac segments showed growth, with iPad revenue at $7 billion (up 8%) and Mac revenue at $7.7 billion (up 2%), while wearables and accessories saw a decline of 3% to $9 billion [42][44]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the overall revenue growth for FY25Q1 will be in the low to mid-single digits, with gross margins expected to remain between 46% and 47% [15][26]. - The company is expected to benefit from a growing user base in India, with projected hardware sales exceeding $20 billion in the coming years [25].
Legend Biotech Corp ADR:研发进度领先,销售开始逐步放量
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-27 12:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $56.29, indicating a potential upside of 32.9% from the current share price of $42.58 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with CARVYKTI revenue increasing by 88% year-over-year to $286 million in Q3 2024, and a total revenue of $160 million for the quarter, representing a 67% increase [1]. - CARVYKTI is the only therapy clinically proven to significantly extend overall survival in multiple myeloma (MM) patients compared to standard therapies, with a median overall survival (mOS) not reached versus 37.75 months, reducing the risk of death by 45% [1]. - The company has a strong cash position of $1.2 billion, which is expected to support operations until 2026, with plans to reach an annual production target of 10,000 doses by the end of 2025 [1]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of $117 million for 2023, with projections of $285 million for 2024 and $632 million for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 143.7% and 119.1% respectively [2][4]. - Gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 59% in 2024 and 54% in 2025 [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of $62 million by 2026, with a significant reduction in losses expected in the coming years [4].
中国海洋石油:克服油价下跌,产量提升+成本控制拉动净利增长
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-26 07:53
Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 23.12, representing a 33.5% upside from the current price [2] Core Views - The company maintained high single-quarter net profit despite a decline in oil prices, driven by production growth and excellent cost control [2] - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 116.659 billion in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [2] - The company's oil and gas production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [2] - The company's cost per barrel of oil decreased to USD 28.14, with operating costs at USD 7.21 per barrel, placing it among the global leaders in cost control [2] - The company's capital expenditure in the first three quarters was approximately RMB 95.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with high growth potential in future projects [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 99.254 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5% but a sequential increase of 6.3% [2] - The company's net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 36.928 billion, with a total revenue of RMB 326.024 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] - The company's oil and gas sales contributed significantly to revenue, with domestic fields like Bozhong and Enping showing strong production growth [2] - The company's realized oil sales price increased from USD 76.8 per barrel in the first three quarters of 2023 to USD 79.0 per barrel in the same period of 2024, narrowing the discount to international oil prices [2] Production and Reserves - The company's net production in Q3 2024 was 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [2] - Overseas production growth was driven by the successful commissioning of the Payara project in Guyana [2] - The company secured 9 new offshore exploration blocks and discovered 4 new oil and gas structures, with projects expected to come online between 2024 and 2027 [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 451.4 billion, RMB 465.5 billion, and RMB 476.0 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 145.2 billion, RMB 148.9 billion, and RMB 153.0 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 3.05, RMB 3.13, and RMB 3.22 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 5.2x, 5.1x, and 5.0x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The company's PB ratio is expected to be 1.2x, 1.1x, and 1.0x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The dividend yield is projected to be 8.3%, 8.5%, and 8.8% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]
敏华控股:纵使面临宏观挑战,集团也能逆境提升利润率和维持稳定派息
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-26 07:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 6.30 [2][4]. Core Views - Despite facing macro challenges, the company has managed to improve profit margins and maintain stable dividends [2]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its market presence, particularly in the overseas markets, while addressing trade challenges through strategic manufacturing locations [2][4]. Financial Overview - For FY2025, the company reported total revenue of HKD 84.7 billion, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with main revenue declining by 7.1% [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 39.5%, benefiting from a reduction in raw material costs [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 11.4 billion, with a net profit margin of 51.5% [2]. - The company plans to increase its store count in China by 500-600 stores [2]. Market Performance - The Chinese market saw a decline in revenue by 17.2%, while North American revenue increased by 5.7% [2]. - The company continues to lead in global functional sofa sales, with a significant increase in overseas market revenue [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) in the Chinese market decreased by 10%, impacting overall revenue [2]. Product Performance - Sofa sales in China decreased by 5.8%, while bedding sales grew by 26.6% [2]. - The company is focusing on new product development and enhancing its sales team to drive growth [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the decline in the Chinese market will narrow in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by government subsidies [2]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities in the functional sofa market, which currently has low penetration in China [2].
亚朵:门店快速扩张持续,布局高端酒店品牌
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-26 04:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Atour Hotel (ATAT.US) with a target price of $34.8, representing a potential upside of 37.3% from the current stock price of $25.4 [2][6]. Core Insights - Atour Hotel continues to expand rapidly, focusing on high-end hotel brands, with a total of 1,533 stores as of Q3, including 12 self-operated stores and 1,504 franchise stores [2][6]. - The company reported Q3 revenue of 190 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%, but net profit exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations, with a GAAP net profit of 38 million yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company has a strong membership growth, with registered members reaching 83 million, a year-on-year increase of 53.7% [2][6]. Financial Overview - For FY24, the company expects revenue growth of 51.9% year-on-year, with projected revenues of 7.09 billion yuan, 8.86 billion yuan in FY25, and 10.57 billion yuan in FY26 [2][6]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 1.285 billion yuan in FY24, 1.591 billion yuan in FY25, and 1.991 billion yuan in FY26, reflecting significant growth rates [2][6]. - The report highlights a strong retail performance, with GMV reaching 566 million yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 108% [2][6]. Store Expansion and Market Position - The company opened a record number of new stores in Q3, with 140 new openings and a total of 732 stores in the pipeline, indicating a robust expansion strategy [2][6]. - Atour Hotel's RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) faced pressure due to high base effects from last year's summer travel boom, with a year-on-year decline of 10.5% [2][6]. - The company is enhancing its multi-brand matrix with the introduction of a new high-end service brand, aiming to improve its market share in the mid-range segment [2][6].
拼多多:聚焦高质量发展,关税风险可能加速兑现
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-25 08:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.US) with a target price of $142.40, representing a potential upside of 37% from the current price of $104.09 [3][5]. Core Insights - The domestic e-commerce sector is focusing on high-quality development, with a 3.2% year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters of 2024, and a 7.9% increase in online retail sales of physical goods [1]. - Pinduoduo is expected to continue supporting merchants through fee reductions and increased subsidies to maintain price competitiveness, which may impact short-term monetization and profit margins [1]. - The report anticipates that tariffs could negatively affect Temu, with projected global sales of $48 billion in 2024, as external factors may accelerate tariff-related risks [1]. Financial Summary - For Q3, Pinduoduo reported revenues of 99.354 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 44%, but below market expectations. Online marketing services revenue was 49.351 billion RMB, up 24% year-on-year, while transaction services revenue reached 50.003 billion RMB, up 72% year-on-year [2]. - Operating profit for the quarter was 29.292 billion RMB, with an operating margin of 24.5%, reflecting a 9 percentage point decline from the previous quarter [2]. - The company’s net profit was 24.981 billion RMB, a 61% increase year-on-year, resulting in a net margin of 25.1% [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for Pinduoduo has been adjusted to 409.1 billion RMB for 2024, 522.3 billion RMB for 2025, and 627.3 billion RMB for 2026, with corresponding operating profits of 113.3 billion RMB, 134.5 billion RMB, and 168.5 billion RMB respectively [3][4]. - The earnings per ADS are projected to be 83.0 RMB for 2024, 99.8 RMB for 2025, and 124.0 RMB for 2026 [3][4]. Market Position and Competition - The report highlights that the competition among platforms is intensifying, focusing on price competitiveness, user experience, and growth quality [1]. - Pinduoduo is expected to increase its subsidy efforts in Q4 to maintain its competitive edge in pricing [1].
康希诺生物:流脑疫苗带动季度恢复盈利,多管线构建未来增长点
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-25 07:42
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 35.10, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current price of HKD 29.15 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first quarterly profit post-pandemic in Q3 2024, with revenue of HKD 264 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 76.1%. For the first three quarters, total revenue reached HKD 567 million, up 222.9% year-on-year, with a 36.9% growth after adjusting for expected returns of COVID-19 vaccines [2]. - The company's cost management has shown significant improvement, with a reduction in management and R&D expenses by 37.6% and 41.0% respectively, leading to a narrowed net loss of HKD 222 million for the first three quarters [2]. - The company's meningococcal vaccine, "曼海欣," has seen impressive growth, with revenue of HKD 516 million in the first three quarters, a 39.07% increase year-on-year. The product is expected to maintain its market position as the only MCV4 product in China [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 264 million, marking a 76.1% increase year-on-year. The total revenue for the first three quarters was HKD 567 million, reflecting a 222.9% increase year-on-year, with a 36.9% growth after accounting for expected returns of COVID-19 vaccines [2]. - The company managed to reduce its asset impairment losses by HKD 777 million year-on-year, resulting in a narrowed net loss of HKD 222 million for the first three quarters [2]. Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - The company has multiple product pipelines progressing well, including the PCV13i vaccine, which has received acceptance for market application and is expected to be approved next year, providing a second growth point [4]. - The company is actively pursuing the expansion of its meningococcal vaccine for ages 4-6, with approval anticipated next year, which will enhance sales growth [3]. - The company has also received a USD 17 million grant from the Gates Foundation to advance the development of a restructured polio vaccine, indicating strong support for its R&D initiatives [4].
沃尔玛:2025年第三财季业绩点评:美国消费具备韧性,电商增效效果显著,上调财年指引
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-22 06:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Walmart (WMT.US) with an upgraded fiscal year guidance, indicating resilience in U.S. consumer spending and improved e-commerce efficiency [2]. Core Insights - Walmart's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached $169.6 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5.5%. The gross margin was 24.2%, an increase of 21 basis points, primarily due to strong inventory management in the U.S. [2] - The operating profit was $6.7 billion, up 8.2% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 4.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) were $0.57, a significant increase of 850% year-over-year, while adjusted EPS was $0.58, up 13.7% [2]. - For the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, operating cash flow was $22.9 billion, a 21% increase year-over-year, and free cash flow was $6.2 billion, up 43% [2]. - Walmart's same-store sales in the U.S. grew by 5.3%, with essential goods maintaining positive growth. International sales increased by 8.0%, with double-digit growth in China [2]. - E-commerce revenue globally grew by 27%, with U.S. e-commerce up 22% and international e-commerce up 43%, driven by in-store pickup, delivery, and third-party seller services [2]. - The report highlights that U.S. retail sales in October increased by 0.4% month-over-month, indicating resilient consumer demand ahead of the holiday season [2]. Financial Projections - For fiscal year 2025, total revenue is expected to grow by 4.8% to 5.1%, with adjusted operating profit projected to increase by 8.5% to 9.25% [2]. - The earnings forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 shows a steady increase in total revenue, operating profit, and EPS, with projected revenues of $680.5 billion in 2025 and $739.7 billion by 2027 [5].
快手-W:DAU破四亿,盈利能力持续提升
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-11-22 06:04
快手(1024) 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- ...