Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - Tencent Holdings (700) is expected to announce its Q3 2024 financial results on November 13, 2024, with a subsequent earnings call at 20:00 Beijing time [1] - Visible Alpha consensus estimates Q3 2024 revenue at 167 billion RMB, an 8% YoY increase [1] - Value-added services are expected to contribute 82.3 billion RMB, up 8.71% YoY [1] - Advertising revenue is projected to rise 15.18% YoY to 29.6 billion RMB, driven by video accounts [1] - Cloud and fintech revenues are anticipated to reach 53.5 billion RMB, a 2.75% YoY increase [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to grow 19.55% YoY to approximately 53.7 billion RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services: 82.3 billion RMB, +8.71% YoY [1] - Advertising: 29.6 billion RMB, +15.18% YoY [1] - Cloud and fintech: 53.5 billion RMB, +2.75% YoY [1] Gaming Segment - Tencent's evergreen gaming strategy continues to drive growth, with AI enhancing monetization efficiency [1] - Domestic games like Peacekeeper Elite maintain 100 million users, while DNF remains stable on the game bestseller list [1] - Overseas games, including the overseas version of Honor of Kings, performed well, ranking in the top three on Sensor Tower's China mobile game overseas market download list in July [1] - New game Delta Action reached 25 million registered users within a week of its launch in late September [1] Advertising Business - Advertising revenue is expected to benefit from the rapid development and operational optimization of video accounts [1] - AI technology is enhancing the efficiency of Tencent's advertising 3.0 platform, supporting high gross margins in the advertising business [1] Cloud and Fintech - Cloud business is focusing on operational efficiency and cost reduction while pursuing high-quality growth [1] - Fintech is expected to see increased demand due to the rising market environment for large models and the commercialization progress of projects like mini-programs [1] - The interconnection between WeChat Pay and Taobao Tmall starting in September is anticipated to significantly boost Q4 2024 and 2025 technical service fees [1] Overall Outlook - The company's overall revenue is expected to improve, with continued cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1] - Sales and management expense ratios are lower than expected, with promising data from video accounts anticipated [1] - Management is expected to provide further insights during the earnings call regarding new game releases and future commercialization strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 48.96, equivalent to 14 times the expected EV/EBITDA for 2025 [1]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a net revenue increase of 10.5% year-on-year, although it decreased by 2.3% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The introduction of smart gaming tables and the launch of new products are expected to help the company regain market share, which is estimated to exceed 20% [1][2]. - The company has a strong balance sheet and management execution capabilities, contributing to confidence in its long-term development [1]. Financial Summary - Total net revenue for 2022 was HKD 11,474 million, with a significant increase to HKD 35,683.6 million in 2023, and projected revenues of HKD 43,358.2 million for 2024 [2]. - EBITDA for 2023 was HKD 9,955 million, with forecasts of HKD 12,278.2 million for 2024 and HKD 14,220.4 million for 2025, indicating a growth trend [2]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 6,828 million, with projections of HKD 9,166.4 million for 2024 and HKD 10,301.6 million for 2025, reflecting a positive outlook [2]. Operational Highlights - The company's EBITDA margin is expected to improve, with rates projected at 28.3% for 2024 and 29.9% for 2025 [2]. - The occupancy rates for the "Galaxy Macau™" and StarWorld Hotel were reported at 98% and 100%, respectively, indicating strong demand [1]. - The company plans to continue expanding its offerings, including the development of new hotel brands and entertainment facilities [1].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

理想汽车（LI.O/2015.HK） 更新报告 买入 2024 年 11 月 8 日 智能驾驶推送加速，车辆毛利率回升明显 公司 Q3 业绩符合预期：公司 2024 年 Q3 实现车辆销售收入 413.2 亿元，同比增长 22.9%，环比增长 36.3%。2024 年 Q3 汽车总交付 量为 15.3 万辆，同比增长 45.4%。Q3 车辆毛利率提升至 20.9%。 净利润 28.1 亿元，同比减少 0.3%。新产品 L6 抬升整体销量，平 均月销量达到 25000 台，进一步扩大 20 万元及以上的国内新能源 汽车市场份额，理想市场份额由 2024 年 Q2 的 14.4%增加至 Q3 的 17.3%，公司计划目标四季度至明年进一步提升 L6 产能。公司预指 引 4 季度交付量为 16-17 万辆，收入指引 432 亿-459 亿元。 费用率改善明显：公司 2024 年 Q3 研发费用率 6%，同比减少 2.1pct，环比减少 3.5pct；SG&A 费用率分别为 7.8%，同比增长 0.5pct，环比减少 1.1pct。新产品推出放缓，部分研发费用降 低，智驾方面路径变化导致研发成本减少，雇员薪酬减少。此 ...

盈利摘要 股价表现 财务年度截至12月31日 2022历史 2023历史 2024预测 2025预测 2026预测 营业总收入(百万元) 127,554 150,560 173,697 191,815 211,229 变动(%) 16.9% 19.0% 15.4% 10.4% 10.1% 归母净利润(百万元) 62,717 74,734 86,441 95,924 106,059 变动(%) 19.6% 19.2% 15.7% 11.0% 10.6% 基本每股收益(元) 49.93 59.49 68.81 76.36 84.43 市盈率@1,610.0元(倍) 32.2 27.1 23.4 21.1 19.1 每股股息(元) 47.8 50.0 51.6 57.3 63.3 股息现价比（%） 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9% 来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源：彭博 贵州茅台（600519） 更新报告 中期分红发布，静待政策催化需求改善 兑现中期分红规划：公司发布利润分配预案，拟派发中期红利每股 23.882 元（含 税），合计总金额为 300 亿元，相当于公司 2024 年中期利润的 7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Palantir (PLTR.US) following its strong performance and inclusion in the S&P 500 [1]. Core Insights - Palantir reported Q3 2024 total revenue of approximately $726 million, a year-over-year increase of 30%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - Government customer revenue reached about $408 million, up 33% year-over-year, with a significant increase in average revenue per customer [1]. - Commercial customer revenue was approximately $317 million, a 27% year-over-year increase, although average revenue per customer saw a slight decline [1]. - The total number of customers increased to 629, reflecting a 39% year-over-year growth [1]. - The company announced a strategic partnership with Microsoft, enhancing its government business potential [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 operating profit margin was 15.59%, an increase of 8.43 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - Net profit for the quarter was $149 million, a 103% year-over-year increase [1]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $788 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $435 million [1]. - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be in the range of $767 to $771 million, with adjusted operating profit projected between $298 to $302 million [1]. Future Outlook - For the full year 2024, Palantir anticipates total revenue between $2.805 billion and $2.809 billion, with U.S. commercial revenue expected to exceed $687 million, representing at least a 50% year-over-year growth [1]. - The report highlights significant growth potential in the government sector, particularly in AI applications within defense budgets [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT US) with a target price of $32 5, representing a 23 1% upside from the current price [1] Core Views - Atour is a leading player in China's mid-to-high-end hotel industry, with a strong brand and high-quality service [1] - The company has achieved rapid expansion through a light-asset franchise model, with 1,412 hotels and 161,686 rooms as of FY24Q2 [1] - Atour has developed a robust membership system, with over 76 million members and a member repurchase rate increasing from 45% in 2019 to 58% in 2022 [1] - The company's recovery from the pandemic has been industry-leading, with RevPar reaching 114% of 2019 levels [1] - Atour's retail business, Atour Market, has become a significant growth driver, contributing 20 8% of total revenue in 2023 [1] Company Overview - Atour operates six hotel brands and a retail brand, Atour Market, with 1,412 hotels and 161,686 rooms as of FY24Q2 [1][2] - The company has a strong customer satisfaction record, ranking first among six major mid-to-high-end hotel chains since 2017 [2] - Atour's brands include Atour, Atour S, Atour Light, Atour X, Z Hotel, and A T HOUSE, catering to different market segments [3] Business Model - Atour primarily uses a franchise model for expansion, with 98% of its hotels being franchised as of FY24Q2 [10] - The company's revenue is mainly driven by franchise fees, with franchise hotel revenue accounting for 58% of total revenue in 2023 [12] - Atour's retail business has seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing from RMB 69 million in 2019 to RMB 972 million in 2023 [13] Industry Overview - China's hotel industry is undergoing structural changes, with the mid-to-high-end segment growing rapidly [1] - The industry's chain rate has increased from 20% in 2017 to 41% in 2023, with further growth expected to 47 8% by 2026 [17][18] - The mid-to-high-end hotel market is the fastest-growing segment, with total revenue increasing from RMB 19 5 billion in 2016 to RMB 65 9 billion in 2021 [27] Competitive Advantages - Atour has a strong focus on customer experience, with a well-designed service process and a unique "peak-end" service concept [36][37] - The company's membership system is highly effective, with a low entry barrier and attractive benefits, leading to high member loyalty [39][42] - Atour's retail business has become a significant growth driver, with GMV reaching RMB 1 14 billion in 2023, up 253% YoY [48][51] Operational Performance - Atour's operational recovery has been industry-leading, with RevPar reaching 114% of 2019 levels [1] - The company's occupancy rate in 2023 was 78%, close to the industry leader Huazhu Group [53] - Atour's retail business has seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing from RMB 69 million in 2019 to RMB 972 million in 2023 [13]

新东方（EDU/9901） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|--------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is transitioning into a manufacturer of new energy commercial vehicles, aiming to penetrate the European new energy commercial vehicle market [10] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Handerson Automotive Technology for HKD 166 million is a significant step in expanding the company's automotive business from sales and after-sales services to full-scale OEM manufacturing [2][10] - The company leverages a light-asset model to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, allowing for quicker development cycles and lower initial investments [4][5] Company Background - The company primarily engages in investment holding, with its main businesses being automotive distribution and property investment [1] - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of HKD 47.504 million, with automotive business contributing HKD 15.839 million (33%) and property investment generating HKD 31.665 million (67%) [1] Business Model and Operations - Handerson utilizes China's automotive production capacity and supply chain advantages, focusing on the development and manufacturing of new energy logistics vehicles [3] - The company has established strategic partnerships with Dongfeng Motor and JAC Motors to enhance its R&D capabilities [3] - The light-asset model allows the company to significantly reduce development time and upfront investment, exemplified by the eBOLD logistics vehicle, which took only one year from project initiation to delivery [4] Market Opportunity - The European market for new energy commercial vehicles is still in its early stages, with only 7% of new registered vans being electric as of 2023 [6][9] - The report highlights a growing demand for new energy vehicles in Europe, driven by regulatory changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions [6][9] - The company has received orders for 800 vehicles in 2024 and plans to increase this to 2,000 vehicles per month in 2025 [5] Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in Europe is low compared to traditional diesel vehicles, presenting a significant growth opportunity [7][9] - The company faces challenges from established European manufacturers and must invest in technology and brand recognition to capture a larger market share [10]

超威半导体（AMD） 更新报告 买入 2024 年 11 月 1 日 上调加速卡收入至 50 亿美元，25 年底有望追赶 Blackwell 业绩摘要：2024Q3 公司营收 68.2 亿美元，同比增加 17.6%，略高于 彭博一致预期 67.1 亿美元。毛利率为 50.1%，同比增加 2.8 个百分 点；经营利润为 7.2 亿美元，同比增长 223%，营业利润率为 10.6%； GAAP 净利润 7.7 亿美元，Non-GAAP 净利润 15.0 亿美元，同比增长 32.5%。Non-GAAP 摊薄 EPS 为 0.92 美元，符合彭博一致预期的 0.92 美元。Q3 收入指引中值 75 亿美元，同比增加 21.6%，基本符合彭博 一致预期。Non-GAAP 毛利率指引为 54%。 MI300 全年收入指引 50 亿美元，25 年底 MI350 性能实现代际飞跃： 本季度数据中心营收同比增长 122.1%达 35.5 亿美元。第五代 EPYC 处 理器在 OEM 及 ODM 中广泛应用，9005 系列价格同比+10%-25%，性能较 竞争对手提升 60%。本季度 GPU 销售额达 15 亿元，公司上调全年收 ...