Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for Futu Holdings (FUTU) [2] Core Views - Futu Holdings continues to demonstrate strong growth through product innovation and market expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia [2] - The company achieved a 30% YoY increase in total revenue to HKD 3.4 billion in Q3 2024, driven by growth across all business segments [2] - FUTU's customer base and assets under management continue to expand rapidly, with total paying clients reaching 2.2 million, a 33% YoY increase [2][5] Financial Performance Revenue Breakdown - Brokerage commission and handling fee revenue grew 52% YoY to HKD 1.5 billion, despite a decrease in commission rates from 9.3 bps to 8.0 bps [2] - Interest income increased 13% YoY to HKD 1.7 billion, driven by margin financing and securities lending businesses [2] - Other income (including wealth management and corporate services) surged 52% YoY to HKD 209 million [2] Cost Structure - Total costs increased 43% YoY to HKD 625 million, primarily driven by higher interest expenses (up 43% YoY) and processing/service costs (up 51% YoY) [2] Profitability - Gross profit grew 27% YoY to HKD 2.8 billion, with a gross margin of 81.8% [2] - Operating profit increased 31% YoY to HKD 1.7 billion, with an operating margin of 50.4% [2] - Net profit rose 21% YoY to HKD 1.3 billion, with a net profit margin of 38.4% [2] Customer Growth and Market Performance - FUTU added 154,000 net new paying clients in Q3 2024, a 138% YoY increase [2] - Total client assets grew 48% YoY to HKD 693 billion, driven by stock appreciation and net asset inflows [5] - Hong Kong and Singapore markets contributed over one-third of new paying clients, while Malaysia remained the largest contributor for three consecutive quarters [4] Trading Volume and Market Activity - Total trading volume increased 17% QoQ to HKD 1.9 trillion [6] - US stock trading volume grew 23% QoQ to HKD 1.53 trillion, driven by increased interest in tech stocks and leveraged ETFs [6] - Hong Kong stock trading volume declined 3% QoQ to HKD 348 billion, despite a 267% weekly surge in late September [6] Product Innovation and Expansion - Launched US stock dividend reinvestment plan in Hong Kong [7] - Introduced NISA savings accounts and mutual funds in Japan, along with US stock margin trading and Japanese options [7] - Became the first broker in Malaysia to offer US stock options trading and launched MYR/USD-denominated money market funds [7] Capital Allocation - The board approved a special cash dividend of USD 0.25 per ordinary share or USD 2.00 per ADS, totaling approximately HKD 195 million [8] Financial Forecasts - Operating revenue is projected to grow from HKD 12.62 billion in 2024 to HKD 16.42 billion in 2026 [9] - Net profit is expected to increase from HKD 5.10 billion in 2024 to HKD 7.45 billion in 2026 [9] - EPS is forecasted to rise from HKD 4.59 in 2024 to HKD 6.78 in 2026 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810) with a target price of **32.91 HKD**, representing a **17.54%** upside from the current price [2][5] Core Views - Xiaomi's smartphone, IoT, and automotive businesses are entering a positive growth cycle, with revenue slightly exceeding expectations and strong cash reserves [2] - The company achieved **925 billion RMB** in revenue in Q3 2024, a **30.5% YoY increase**, with adjusted net profit reaching **63 billion RMB**, up **18.7% YoY** [2] - Cash reserves stood at **1516 billion RMB**, reflecting a **9.7% YoY growth** [2] Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is showing initial success in the high-end market, with revenue reaching **828 billion RMB**, a **16.8% YoY increase** [2] - Shipments grew **3.1% YoY** to **431 million units**, driven by increased domestic high-end smartphone shipments and a **10.6% YoY increase in ASP** to **1102 RMB** [2] - The newly launched Xiaomi 15 series achieved strong sales, with expectations of further competitiveness in the **4000-6000 RMB price segment** [2] IoT Business - IoT revenue reached **261 billion RMB**, a **26.3% YoY increase**, with gross margin hitting a record high of **20.8%**, up **2.9 percentage points YoY** [2] - Strong performance in domestic smart home appliances and global tablet/wearable businesses is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidies and holiday promotions [2] Internet Services - Internet services revenue grew **9.1% YoY** to **85 billion RMB**, with gross margin improving **3.1 percentage points YoY** to **77.5%** [2] - Global MAUs reached **686 million**, a **10.1% YoY increase**, with overseas internet services revenue growing **18.3% YoY** to **27 billion RMB** [2] Automotive Business - Xiaomi's automotive business delivered **39,790 units** in Q3 2024, with monthly deliveries stabilizing at **10,000 units** [2] - The company aims to achieve **200,000 units** in annual deliveries, with gross margin improving **1.7 percentage points YoY** to **17.1%** [2] - The SU7 Ultra model, with an ASP of **239,000 RMB**, is expected to drive profitability as scale expands and promotional costs decrease [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from **355.9 billion RMB** in 2024 to **518.4 billion RMB** in 2026, with net profit increasing from **19.9 billion RMB** to **31.8 billion RMB** over the same period [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from **25.1 billion RMB** in 2024 to **37.1 billion RMB** in 2026 [5] Valuation - The target price of **32.91 HKD** is based on **18x PE** for core businesses and **12x PS** for the automotive segment, implying a **17.54% upside** [5]

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of $108.00 USD / HK$168.05, implying a 26.05% / 24.39% upside potential for the US and HK markets respectively [2] Core Views - Blizzard games' return drives PC gaming revenue growth, with new product cycle expected in 2025 [2] - Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 26.21 billion, down 3.9% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 26.59 billion [2] - GAAP net profit of RMB 6.54 billion, down 16.6% YoY, while Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 7.50 billion, down 13.3% YoY [2] - Mobile gaming revenue under pressure due to lack of new titles, while PC gaming revenue grows 29.0% YoY [2] - Youdao achieves record operating profit in Q3, driven by smart hardware and advertising business growth [2] - Cloud Music enters Hong Kong Stock Connect, with Q3 revenue of RMB 2.0 billion, up 1.3% YoY [2] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 total revenue: RMB 26.21 billion, down 3.9% YoY [2] - Gaming and value-added services revenue: RMB 20.86 billion, down 4.2% YoY [2] - Mobile gaming revenue: RMB 14.3 billion, down 9.7% YoY [2] - PC gaming revenue: RMB 4.55 billion, up 29.0% YoY [2] - Youdao revenue: RMB 1.57 billion, up 2.2% YoY [2] - Cloud Music revenue: RMB 2.0 billion, up 1.3% YoY [2] Profitability - Operating profit margin: 27.3%, down 40bps YoY [2] - GAAP net profit: RMB 6.54 billion, down 16.6% YoY [2] - Non-GAAP net profit: RMB 7.50 billion, down 13.3% YoY [2] - Youdao operating profit: RMB 110 million, up 186% YoY [2] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue CAGR: 10.5% [2] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit CAGR: 8.5% [2] - 2025 PC gaming revenue expected to decline 12% to RMB 21.6 billion [2] - 2025 mobile gaming revenue expected to grow 5.4% to RMB 60.0 billion [2] Business Segments Gaming - Blizzard games' return drives PC gaming growth, with World of Warcraft and Hearthstone contributing to revenue increase [2] - New titles expected in 2025, including Marvel Rivals and Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng [2] - Pipeline includes Code: Infinity, Marvel Rampage, and Destiny: Rise [2] Youdao - Smart hardware revenue grows 25.2% YoY to RMB 320 million, driven by X7Pro dictionary pen sales [2] - Online marketing revenue grows 45.6% YoY to RMB 490 million, supported by AI optimization [2] Cloud Music - DAU/MAU ratio remains above 30%, with 24.4% paying user ratio [2] - ARPU reaches RMB 6.2 per month, with 730,000 independent musicians on the platform [2] Valuation - Target price of $108.00 USD / HK$168.05, based on 14.9x 2025 PE [2] - Gaming business valued at 1.2x PEG, with 12x PE for Non-GAAP net profit [2] - Youdao and Cloud Music valued based on NetEase's shareholding, with 5% discount applied to group valuation [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA.US/9988.HK) with a target price of $112.00 USD / 109.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of approximately 29% from the current price [4][6]. Core Insights - Alibaba's e-commerce business is focusing on enhancing user experience and retention through competitive pricing and improved customer service, which is expected to strengthen market share and monetization in the long term despite short-term uncertainties [1][2]. - Alibaba Cloud is positioned as a leading cloud provider in China, expected to drive demand related to AI, contributing to future growth and profitability [1][3]. - The company is actively reducing losses in underperforming segments and has repurchased shares worth $4.1 billion, resulting in a 2.1% reduction in the number of shares outstanding this quarter [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal quarter ending September 30, 2024, Alibaba reported revenues of RMB 236.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Operating profit also grew by 5% to RMB 35.2 billion, while net profit surged by 63% to RMB 43.5 billion, primarily due to changes in equity investments [2][3]. - Adjusted net profit decreased by 9% to RMB 36.5 billion, with operating cash flow down 36% and free cash flow down 70%, attributed to increased investments in Alibaba Cloud and other operational adjustments [2][3]. - The Tmall Group's revenue grew by 1% to RMB 98.99 billion, with customer management revenue increasing by 2% to RMB 70.36 billion, while the EBITA margin improved by 2 percentage points [3][4]. Segment Performance - The overseas e-commerce segment saw a 29% revenue increase to RMB 31.67 billion, although it reported an EBITA margin of -9% [3]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 7% to RMB 29.61 billion, with public cloud services achieving double-digit growth and AI revenue increasing by triple digits [3]. - The local services segment, including platforms like Ele.me, reported a 14% revenue increase to RMB 17.73 billion, indicating strong order growth [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are projected at RMB 1,003.4 billion, RMB 1,091.4 billion, and RMB 1,205.5 billion respectively, with operating profits expected to reach RMB 147.8 billion, RMB 153.9 billion, and RMB 173.7 billion [4][5]. - The diluted earnings per share are anticipated to be $6.9, $7.2, and $8.2 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company, Pinduoduo (PDD.US), is expected to report total revenue of 101.6 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 48% [2]. - Online marketing revenue is projected to be 49.5 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, while transaction service revenue is anticipated to reach 52.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 80% increase [2]. - Operating expenses are expected to total 35.1 billion yuan, a 38% increase year-on-year, with a cost structure that includes marketing expenses growing 36% to 29.6 billion yuan, management expenses rising 143% to 1.8 billion yuan, and R&D expenses increasing 27% to 4.3 billion yuan [2]. - The anticipated operating profit is 28.6 billion yuan, a 71% increase year-on-year, with a profit margin of 28% [2]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue is projected to be 423.6 billion yuan, a 71% year-on-year growth, with online marketing revenue expected to be 194.4 billion yuan (27% growth) and transaction service revenue at 229.2 billion yuan (144% growth) [2]. - The management has indicated that due to external environment and competitive landscape changes, high growth and profitability will face challenges, leading to increased investments without considering stock buybacks or dividend plans [2]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance Expectations - Total revenue is expected to be 101.6 billion yuan, with online marketing revenue at 49.5 billion yuan and transaction service revenue at 52.4 billion yuan [2]. - Operating expenses are projected at 35.1 billion yuan, with a significant increase in marketing and management expenses [2]. - Anticipated operating profit is 28.6 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 28% [2]. Full Year 2024 Projections - Total revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 423.6 billion yuan, with substantial growth in both online marketing and transaction service revenues [2]. - Operating profit is projected to be 125.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 114% year-on-year increase [2]. - The management's strategy includes increased investments to navigate market uncertainties and competition [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The domestic market remains strong while the overseas market continues to expand [2]. - The company achieved robust performance in Q3 2024, with revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 406.1 billion and RMB 150.0 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of +18.7% and +44.3% [2]. - The strong growth is attributed to robust travel demand during the domestic summer vacation and Golden Week, as well as continued expansion in overseas markets [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue and adjusted net profit of RMB 406.1 billion and RMB 150.0 billion, respectively, with year-on-year increases of +18.7% and +44.3% [2]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 68.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +16.2% [2]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 81.8% in Q3 2024, with a net profit margin of 36.9% [2]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation ticketing, and vacation travel for Q1-Q3 2024 was RMB 164.3 billion, RMB 155.2 billion, and RMB 34.7 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +23.1%, +8.3%, and +42.3% [2]. - The international OTA platform continued to expand rapidly, with hotel and flight bookings growing over 60% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that domestic travel demand will gradually stabilize, while outbound, inbound, and pure overseas markets are expected to maintain strong growth momentum [2]. - The target price for the company is set at USD 71.25, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current stock price of USD 61.32 [2]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 44,562 million, with a growth rate of 122.2% compared to 2023 [4]. - The projected Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is RMB 13,071 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 910.1% [4]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include Baidu Group (8.89%) and Capital World Investors (5.92%) [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA (NVDA) with a target price of $145.00, representing a potential upside of 3.46% from the current stock price of $140.15 [2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates NVIDIA's revenue for FY25Q3 to be approximately $339 billion, with a gross margin slightly declining to 75.1%. The expected net profit is projected to be $178 billion [2]. - The data center business is expected to generate $30 billion in revenue, while the gaming segment is projected to reach $3 billion. The professional visualization segment is estimated to contribute $4.8 billion, and the automotive business is expected to generate $3.5 billion [2]. - For FY25Q4, the consensus estimate is around $372 billion in revenue, with expectations that the company will maintain conservative guidance, projecting revenue of approximately $375 billion [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report provides guidance for FY25Q3, with a revenue midpoint of $325 billion and a GAAP operating expense of $4.3 billion, leading to a net profit estimate of $168 billion. The Bloomberg consensus for FY25Q3 is $332 billion in revenue and a gross margin of 75% [2]. - The report highlights that TSMC's positive guidance supports NVIDIA's revenue growth for 2026, with expectations of at least 20% growth in the data center business [2]. Market Position - NVIDIA's market capitalization is noted to be $343.79 billion, with 245.3 billion shares outstanding [2]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI and networking products, which are expected to contribute over $30 billion in revenue next year [2].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to HIMS & HERS HEALTH (HIMS.US) based on strong demand for personalized medical solutions and the company's growth potential in the weight management sector [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $401.6 million for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 77%. Online revenue accounted for 97.8% of total revenue, growing by 79% year-over-year [2]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 79.16%, a decrease of 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to the early stages of scaling the weight management business. Operating profit margin was 5.57%, with operating profit of $220,000, largely driven by marketing expenses, which accounted for 45% of total revenue [2]. - The total number of subscription users exceeded 200,000, a year-over-year increase of 44%. Average monthly revenue per online user grew by 24% to $67, with nearly 300,000 subscribers receiving treatment for two or more conditions [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the third quarter, the company achieved a net profit of $75.6 million and free cash flow of $79.4 million [2]. - The company plans to launch a generic version of liraglutide, a GLP-1 weight loss drug, in 2025, addressing the current shortage and difficulties in accessing branded weight loss solutions [2]. Market Dynamics - The demand for personalized medical solutions is strong, with personalized subscription users surpassing 1.03 million, a year-over-year increase of 175% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 32%, representing 50.5% of total subscription users [2]. - Four main factors are driving the rapid adoption of personalized solutions: detailed service offerings, increased number of cross-specialty solutions, more medication delivery options, and improved affordability of solutions [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 63.42 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 79% from the current price of 35.50 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a turnaround in Q3 2024, reporting a revenue of 255 million USD, a 309% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 27.9 million USD, reversing a loss of 58.7 million USD from the previous year [2]. - The recovery in the Q3 performance is attributed to rising gold and copper prices, with gold reaching 2,629.95 USD/ounce, a 12.8% increase since June, and copper prices remaining historically high due to tightening supply and increased demand from the renewable energy sector [2]. - The resumption of operations at the Jiama mine has led to a decrease in cash production costs to 3.85 USD/pound, a 4.9% reduction from the previous quarter [2]. - The company has provided production guidance for 2024, expecting gold production from the Changshanhao mine to be between 3.3 to 3.5 tons and copper production from the Jiama mine to be between 43,200 to 44,500 tons [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported revenues of 1.10 billion USD, which decreased by 3% year-on-year. In 2023, revenues dropped significantly to 459.43 million USD, a 58% decline [3][5]. - The forecast for 2024 anticipates a revenue increase to 764.01 million USD, representing a 66% growth, with net profit projected to recover to 95.4 million USD [3][5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from -0.06 USD in 2023 to 0.24 USD in 2024, reflecting a significant recovery [3][5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 19.2 in 2024, decreasing to 5.0 in 2025 and 4.7 in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation compared to historical levels [3][5].