Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 6.58, representing a potential upside of 39.3% from the current price of HKD 4.72 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for the fiscal year 2023/24 is expected to decline by 12.6%, with total revenue decreasing by 9.4% to HKD 12.86 billion. Excluding currency fluctuations, the revenue decline is 4.1% [3][4]. - Despite the decline in overall performance, core businesses such as water supply, direct drinking water, and environmental services remain robust, indicating a pathway to high-quality development [3][6]. - The direct drinking water segment saw a revenue increase of 31.4% to HKD 1.72 billion, now accounting for 13.2% of total revenue, with over 3,000 new projects added during the period [3][4]. - The water supply business experienced a slight revenue decline of 5.8% to HKD 8.90 billion, but the company anticipates significant revenue growth from over 20 water price adjustment projects currently in progress [3][6]. - The environmental segment's revenue decreased by 35% to HKD 1.03 billion, primarily due to the completion of large projects, but is expected to rebound with the upcoming production of the Mobil project [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023/24, the company reported a net profit of HKD 2.59 billion, down 16.1% year-on-year, with a core net profit decline of 4.0% when excluding currency impacts [3][4]. - The EBITDA margin improved slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 40.1%, indicating operational efficiency despite revenue challenges [3][4]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 30%, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.15 per share [3][4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 1.70 billion, HKD 1.93 billion, and HKD 2.12 billion over the next three fiscal years [3][4]. - The anticipated reduction in capital expenditures due to the commencement of trial production for approximately 800,000 tons of capacity in the water supply and environmental sectors is expected to improve the financial structure and cash flow [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Kuaishou-W (1024) with a target price of **HKD 60**, representing a **26% upside** from the current price [1] Core Views - Kuaishou is positioned as a leading content community and social platform with **700 million MAUs**, leveraging its "short video + live streaming" ecosystem to drive sustainable growth through advertising, e-commerce, and live streaming [1] - The company's **online marketing business** is a key revenue driver, benefiting from refined operations, upgraded intelligent marketing products, and algorithm optimization [1] - E-commerce GMV has grown rapidly from **RMB 96.6 million in 2018 to RMB 1.18 trillion in 2023**, with a projected **18% CAGR from 2024 to 2026** [1] - Kuaishou has achieved significant **cost reduction and efficiency improvements**, with adjusted net profit turning positive in 2023, reflecting strong operational resilience [1] Business Model and Growth Drivers Content Ecosystem - Kuaishou has built a **diverse content ecosystem** centered around short videos and live streaming, fostering a vibrant community with **7 billion MAUs** [1][7] - The platform emphasizes **user engagement**, with average daily usage time reaching **129.5 minutes** in Q1 2024 [1] Online Marketing - Online marketing revenue grew **27.4% YoY in Q1 2024**, contributing **56.6% of total revenue** [10] - **Internal loop advertising**, driven by e-commerce, is a major growth driver, with penetration of smart marketing products reaching **30% in Q1 2024** [10][11] E-commerce - Kuaishou's e-commerce business has seen rapid growth, with **GMV reaching RMB 1.18 trillion in 2023** [1][14] - The company is expanding into **pan-shelf scenarios**, integrating live streaming, short videos, and traditional e-commerce to enhance conversion efficiency [1][14] - **Monthly active buyers** reached **126 million in Q1 2024**, with a penetration rate of **18.6%** [14] Live Streaming - Live streaming revenue has declined as a percentage of total revenue, from **95.3% in 2017 to 34.4% in 2023**, but remains a foundational business [12] - The company is diversifying into new verticals such as recruitment and real estate to reduce reliance on traditional live streaming [12] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from **RMB 8.3 billion in 2017 to RMB 113.5 billion in 2023**, with a **54.5% CAGR** [1] - Gross margin improved from **31.3% in 2017 to 50.6% in 2023**, driven by cost optimization and a shift toward higher-margin businesses [1] - Adjusted net profit turned positive in 2023, reaching **RMB 10.3 billion**, with further growth expected to **RMB 26.3 billion by 2026** [1][20] Industry Context Short Video and Live Streaming - Short video users account for **96.4% of China's internet users**, with platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin dominating the market [26] - The **live streaming e-commerce market** is expected to grow at an **18% CAGR from 2024 to 2026**, reaching **RMB 49.2 trillion in 2023** [33] Advertising Market - China's internet advertising market grew **7.6% YoY in 2023**, reaching **RMB 714.6 billion**, with Kuaishou benefiting from both internal and external loop advertising [27] E-commerce Market - Live streaming e-commerce penetration reached **31.9% in 2023**, with Kuaishou's **pan-shelf strategy** expected to drive further growth [33][36] Strategic Initiatives AI and Technology - Kuaishou has developed its own large language model, **KwaiYii**, and other AI tools to enhance content creation and advertising efficiency [42] - AI-driven solutions are being applied across various business segments, including **digital humans and smart customer service** [42] Overseas Expansion - Overseas revenue grew **193.2% YoY in Q1 2024**, with a focus on key markets like Brazil and Indonesia [15][16] - The company aims to achieve **break-even in overseas operations by 2025** [42] Share Repurchase - Kuaishou plans to repurchase up to **HKD 16 billion worth of shares over the next three years**, starting with **HKD 6 billion in 2024** [44]

研究观点 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——2024 年下半年策略报告 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 中特估继续回吐 港股支撑力减弱 7 月 10 日，港股出现冲高后又再回压下跌，日内跌幅不算太大，但是总体上仍未 能摆脱反复下放的运行模式，要注意短期后市仍有进一步下探的倾向。恒指再跌 了有 50 多点，跌低于 17500 点来收盘，是 4 月 25 日以来的首次，而大市成交量 回升至逾 1000 亿元，但仍低于年内的日均 1097 亿元，盘面流动性依然未见转活。 走势上，恒指仍受制于前一级微型浪顶 18133 点以下，一浪低于一浪发展模式未 可改观，估计后市仍有反复下放的机会。消息方面，内地公布了 6 月居民消费物 价指数 CPI 同比上升 0.2％，虽然是连续第五个月录得上升，但升幅较上月回落 0.1 个百分点，显示经济仍处于供给强、需求弱的状态，市场普遍预期人行在下 半年有降准降息的机会。另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会听证会时表示， 不太可能在 7 月底的议息会议上减息，但重申下一步行动也不太可能是加息，并 指出太迟减息或减幅太小会对经济及劳动市场构成风险。 852-25321 ...

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 2024 年 7 月 9 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 | | 李倩 | 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 | | +852-25321539 | | | Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk | 政治事件 | | | 第一个是法国的第二轮选举极右派没有获得执政权，对欧洲的股票是一个好消 息，因为对于股市而言，平 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - Tencent's new game "Apex Warriors 2" was launched on July 6, 2024, allowing Android users immediate download, while iOS users are still awaiting access [3]. - The game features a 5V5 hero shooting format and offers special benefits for returning players, allowing them to redeem previous in-game purchases [3]. - Tencent showcased its advancements in AI large models at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, emphasizing its leadership in the domestic AI model landscape [3]. - The company has initiated a significant share buyback program, repurchasing 10.63 million shares for a total of 4 billion HKD from July 2 to July 5, 2024 [3]. Company Overview - Tencent's market capitalization stands at 35,380 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 9.355 billion [3]. - The stock price is currently at 378 HKD, with a 52-week high of 400.2 HKD and a low of 256.8 HKD [3]. - The book value per share is reported at 89.7 HKD [3]. Industry Developments - Tencent's large model technology is becoming a core driver for various industries, with significant advancements in computational power and efficiency [3]. - The report highlights ten trends in AI development, indicating that large models are evolving to support human intelligence and enhance interaction capabilities [3].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 9 日 星期二 【公司评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 李倩 852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 陈晓霞 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 汽车 股价 251.52 美元 市值 8021.48 亿美元 总股本 31.89 亿股 52 周高/低299.29 美元/ 138.80 美元 每股账面值 20.19 美元 股价表现 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk FSD v12.4.3 正在向部分客户推出 7 月 4 日,Teslascope 表示,已确认特斯拉将开始推出 FSD v12.4.3,而非此前 原定的 v12.4.2。马斯克上周表示,v12.4.2 版本被暂停推送是因为该版本减少 了干预,但驾驶平稳性却受到影响,正常驾驶的训练不充足。FSD 用户 Dave Lee 收到了 v12.4.3,并分享了有关新软件的多个细节,他特别指出,新 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - Laopuhuang, established in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting "ancient method gold" in China, holding a market share of 2.0% in the ancient method gold jewelry market and 0.6% in the overall gold jewelry market as of 2023 [1]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 1.265 billion to 3.180 billion, a CAGR of 58.6% from 2021 to 2023. Gross profit rose from 521 million to 1.332 billion, with a CAGR of 59.8%, and net profit surged from 114 million to 416 million, reflecting a CAGR of 91.0% [1]. - Laopuhuang operates 33 stores across mainland China and Hong Kong, targeting high-end consumers in top luxury shopping centers [20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopuhuang is recognized for its craftsmanship, inheriting traditional techniques from the Qing Dynasty, including flower wire inlay and gold-silver techniques, which are classified as national intangible cultural heritage [5]. - The company’s unique selling proposition lies in its exclusive use of a fixed-price model for gold jewelry, which positions it as a premium brand despite not being significantly more expensive than competitors when comparing gold weight to price [8][22]. Market Position - The company has successfully captured a growing consumer interest in gold jewelry, particularly as consumers shift from diamond-set luxury items to gold due to rising gold prices and a preference for safer investments [12]. - In the first half of 2024, Laopuhuang's sales surpassed those of four major international luxury jewelry brands in select high-end malls, indicating a strong acceptance among affluent consumers [12]. Future Plans - Laopuhuang plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 in overseas markets, including Hong Kong and Macau, over the next two years [20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated oil and gas operator in China, benefiting from a comprehensive upstream and downstream operational structure, which enhances its risk resilience and profitability [1][7]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in its oil and gas and new energy segments, with projected revenues of 1,732 billion, 1,895 billion, and 2,001 billion RMB for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7%, 9%, and 6% respectively [1][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 10.06 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 19.3% from the current price [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, known as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China and ranks third among the world's top oil companies [3][7]. - Its main business segments include oil and gas exploration, production, transportation, sales, refining, and new energy [3][7]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenues of 30,110.12 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.04% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.34% to 1,611.46 billion RMB [7]. - The company's oil and gas production reached 1,759.2 million barrels in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [17]. Oil and Gas Segment - The company's oil and gas exploration and production revenues are highly correlated with international oil prices, which are expected to remain elevated due to ongoing global economic recovery and seasonal demand [1][27]. - The company has a robust resource base, with proven oil and gas reserves totaling 18,352 million barrels as of 2023 [26]. Natural Gas Business - The company is actively developing unconventional natural gas resources and has introduced foreign resources to enhance supply channels [66]. - The natural gas sales volume reached 2,198 billion cubic meters in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [66]. Refining and Chemical Segment - The refining and chemical segment is expected to see improved profitability due to a recovery in product prices and stable demand for refined products [42]. - The company processed 1,399 million barrels of crude oil in 2023, marking a 15.3% increase from the previous year [41]. Sales and Marketing - The company has expanded its marketing efforts, resulting in a significant increase in sales volumes for gasoline, kerosene, and diesel, which totaled 166 million tons in 2023, a 10.1% increase year-on-year [73]. - The company operates approximately 22,800 gas stations, accounting for 20% of the national total, which supports its integrated operational strategy [72].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for TSMC, setting a target price of $245.00, indicating a potential upside of 34.25% from the current price of $182.49 [1][4]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to benefit from a simultaneous increase in volume and price due to the demand for AI computing chips and the upcoming product launches from major clients like Apple and Qualcomm [1]. - The advanced packaging capacity is projected to double over the next two years, driven by the increasing demand for higher performance chips [1]. - The foundry industry is experiencing a significant concentration of orders towards leading companies, with TSMC holding over 60% market share due to its superior yield and advanced process technology [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at NT$2,161,736 million, with a forecasted increase to NT$2,859,312 million in 2024, representing a 32.3% growth [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is NT$837,768 million, expected to rise to NT$1,108,724 million in 2024, marking a 32.3% increase [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from NT$32.3 in 2023 to NT$43.4 in 2024, reflecting a 34.4% increase [2]. Company Overview - TSMC, founded in 1987, pioneered the foundry model and currently holds over 60% of the market share in the semiconductor industry [5][29]. - The company operates multiple fabs and focuses on advanced process technologies ranging from 3nm to 3um [5]. Business Segments - TSMC's advanced process technology contributes significantly to its revenue, with 67% of revenue coming from 7nm and below processes in the fiscal year 2023 [9]. - The company also provides mature process technologies for IoT, automotive, and consumer electronics, with a declining revenue contribution from 67% in 2020 to 33% in 2023 [9]. Competitive Advantages - TSMC's foundry model allows it to focus on chip manufacturing while its clients, primarily fabless companies, can concentrate on design [29]. - The company has established deep relationships with major clients like Apple and NVIDIA, which contribute significantly to its revenue [32]. Future Outlook - The demand for AI computing chips is expected to drive TSMC's growth, with advanced process and packaging technologies playing a crucial role in meeting this demand [1]. - TSMC's capital expenditures are projected to remain high, with a forecast of $32 billion for 2024, indicating strong growth prospects [35].

宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 2 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治事件 上周美国总统选举首次辩论上拜登表现不佳，被川普打中痛处。媒体认为这是川 普一边倒的胜利，相应地提高了川普在 11 月份胜选的概率，因此对市场投资有一 些影响。川普的政策主张是加关税以及降低企业所得税，这样带来的后果是市场 普遍以为川普上台之后，因为加关税的原因会导致通胀上升，从而会影响联储降 息的节奏。可能是这个原因，导致美国十年期国债利率飙升至 4.46，为近期的高 点。 第二个事件是在 7 月 1 日，美国最高法院裁定，总统对"官方行为"享有豁免 权，几乎保证了川普关于 1 月 6 日国会山骚乱案不会在今年总统大选前开庭审 理，此举基本扫平川普选举的所有障碍。 经济数据 第一个数据是，上周公布了一季度 GDP 的年化季环比终值为 1.4%，较初值有 0.1% 的上修；预计二季度大概会升到 2%。一季度经济放缓主要是由进口增加和商业 ...