行 业 研 究 | 第1 海 证 学 | | --- | | Bohai Securities | [Table_MainInfo] 文化纸温和上涨可期，上海推动 IP、宠物消费发展 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 推荐组合：欧派家居（603833）、索菲亚（002572）、探路者（300005）、 森马服饰（002563）、乖宝宠物（301498）。 风险提示 宏观经济波动；原材料成本上涨；新产能无法及时消化；大客户流失。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 12 行业周报 | | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | SAC NO： S1150521120002 | | | 2025 | 年 月 2 | 17 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | |  行业要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry and textile apparel sectors, while recommending "Increase" ratings for specific companies including Oppein Home, Sophia, Explorer, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet [25][4][24]. Core Insights - Global corrugated packaging giant Smurfit Westrock reported a record revenue of approximately 226.1 billion RMB for 2024, establishing a new industry benchmark [8]. - Hermes experienced a 13% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching 15.2 billion euros, with plans for a 6%-7% price increase globally [8]. - The cultural paper sector is expected to see a price increase of 200 RMB per ton starting March 1, 2025, driven by rising raw material costs and the upcoming peak demand season for educational printing paper [23][24]. Industry News - The corrugated packaging industry is witnessing significant growth, with Smurfit Westrock leading the way [8]. - The demand for cultural printing paper is anticipated to rise as the traditional peak season approaches [23]. - The Shanghai government is promoting new consumption initiatives, particularly in the IP and pet economy sectors, which are expected to stimulate market demand [24]. Company Announcements - Chenming Paper Industry received approval for the dissolution of its financial subsidiary [17]. - Aori Jin is expected to complete the acquisition of remaining shares from COFCO Packaging by April 17, 2025 [17]. Market Review - From February 10 to February 14, the light industry sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.11 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind by 0.01 percentage points [18][21]. - The top-performing stocks in the light industry included Jinyun Laser and Delixi, while the textile sector saw significant movements in stocks like Ruibeka and Zhejiang Wenyi [18][21].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [2] - Key companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC are rated as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - In January 2025, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China were 66.20 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 17.20% [7] - The Tesla Shanghai energy storage super factory has commenced production, marking a new phase for Tesla's operations in China [7][8] - The construction machinery industry is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and a recovering real estate market, which will drive demand for related equipment [24] Industry News - The operating hours of Komatsu excavators in various regions showed mixed results, with Japan, North America, Europe, and Indonesia experiencing year-on-year growth [7] - Tesla's new factory in Shanghai is expected to produce 10,000 units of the Megapack energy storage system annually, with a storage capacity of nearly 40 GWh [8] Industry Data - As of February 8, 2025, the steel composite price index (CSPI) was 96.34 [9] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices were reported at $72.32 and $75.87 per barrel, respectively, as of February 11, 2025 [10] Company Announcements - Kede CNC reported a revenue of approximately 605 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.88% [14] - Zhongdali intends to invest approximately 200 million yuan in a precision core component production line project [15] Market Review - From February 5 to February 11, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.73%, while the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector increased by 6.10%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.37 percentage points [17] - The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Machinery Equipment sector was 27.55, with a valuation premium of 128.39% relative to the CSI 300 [18] Weekly Perspective - Excavator sales in 2024 reached 201,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, with domestic sales showing significant growth [24] - The anticipated mass production of humanoid robots by Tesla in 2026 is expected to create investment opportunities in the related supply chain [24]

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [1] Core Views - The steel production is expected to rebound after the Spring Festival, but short-term demand remains weak due to adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic disturbances, leading to a potential decline in steel prices [1][16] - Copper supply is tight, which supports copper prices; however, short-term demand may be weak due to the time required for downstream manufacturers to resume normal production [1][37] - Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure due to ongoing declines in alumina prices and external factors such as EU sanctions and US tariffs affecting aluminum exports [1][42] - Gold prices are rising due to safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, with long-term bullish factors including high US debt and inflation risks [1][71] - The tin industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the semiconductor sector and demand driven by AI and new energy developments [1][71] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel inventory continues to accumulate as downstream production has not fully resumed; production is expected to increase post-holiday, but demand is still weak [16][26] - As of February 7, steel production was 8.0863 million tons, down 0.36% from January 24, and inventory reached 5.2374 million tons, up 38.72% from January 24 [18][26] - The average profit margins for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [36] Copper Industry - The copper smelting fee is negative, indicating tight supply conditions; LME copper prices increased by 0.76% to $9,300 per ton as of February 7 [38][41] - The copper inventory at LME decreased by 3.88%, while SHFE inventory increased significantly by 143.55% [41] Aluminum Industry - The price of alumina is expected to continue declining, which will reduce cost pressures for aluminum producers; LME aluminum prices decreased slightly by 0.02% to $2,600 per ton [42][44] - The domestic aluminum production capacity is expected to gradually increase post-holiday [42] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 3.91% to $2,886.10 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [47] - Silver prices also rose, reflecting similar trends in the precious metals market [47] Lithium and New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply pressures from the resumption of domestic lithium salt production [49] - As of February 7, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 77,500 yuan per ton, down 0.64% from January 24 [50] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Light rare earth prices increased, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 425,000 yuan per ton, up 2.41% [59] - Tungsten and other minor metal prices remained stable [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [5][31] - Specific companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, Toread, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet are rated as "Buy" [5][31] Core Insights - In 2024, the paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 51.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Sport have outlined plans to build around 100 high-quality outdoor sports destinations by 2030, which is expected to boost the outdoor sports equipment and apparel sectors [5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy during the Spring Festival in 2025 has shown significant effects, with key monitored retail enterprises reporting a year-on-year sales increase of over 10% in home appliances and communication equipment [5][31] Industry News - The paper and paper products industry reported a revenue of 1,456.62 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [12] - The Weifu Group has shown initial success in its transformation, with a revenue of 2.8 billion USD in Q3 of FY2025, marking a 2% year-on-year increase [12] Market Review - From February 5 to February 7, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.38 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 1.60% compared to the CSI 300's 1.98% [25] - The textile and apparel sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.43 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 0.55% [29] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in stimulating home decoration and household consumption, which are expected to benefit the home furnishing sector [5][31] - The report also notes that the recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have led domestic export-oriented companies to accelerate their globalization strategies to mitigate tariff risks [5][31]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Positive" rating, with specific companies such as SANY Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), and CRRC (601766) receiving an "Accumulate" rating [2] Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector shows strong domestic sales performance, with a notable increase in demand driven by infrastructure investments and real estate market stabilization [1][2] - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the machinery equipment industry is 26.35 times, reflecting a valuation premium of 122.99% compared to the CSI 300 index [1][49] - The Central Committee and State Council have issued a rural revitalization plan, which is expected to enhance agricultural modernization and increase demand for agricultural machinery [1] Summary by Sections Industry Development - In December 2024, excavator sales reached 19,369 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with domestic sales up by 22.1% [12] - The construction machinery sector is expected to benefit from accelerated urban renewal efforts, which will drive equipment demand [1] Market Review - From January 6 to February 5, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.53%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 7.87%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 7.34 percentage points [45] - The machinery equipment industry ranked third among all primary industries during this period [45] Monthly Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring downstream demand improvements and the potential for investment opportunities in the agricultural machinery sector due to policy support [1]

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous metals: Positive [1] Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing weak performance due to the impact of holiday seasons on production and demand recovery, with expectations of continued pressure on steel prices [15][1] - For copper, uncertainties regarding tariffs and potential trade wars are pressuring prices, but tight supply and domestic demand expectations provide some support [27][1] - The aluminum market faces challenges from tariffs and a potential decline in prices due to sufficient supply of alumina [32][1] - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors, with a long-term positive outlook due to high U.S. debt and inflation risks [36][1] - The tin industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the semiconductor sector and demand from AI and new energy developments [64][1] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - January PMI for the steel industry was 43.3%, indicating weak performance, with production and demand affected by cold weather and holidays [15][1] - December 2024 steel consumption was 10,999.28 million tons, down 0.01% month-on-month but up 8.45% year-on-year [16][1] - January 2025 steel production data is not yet available, but expectations indicate continued pressure on production and prices [15][1] Copper - December 2024 refined copper production was 124.20 million tons, up 9.62% month-on-month and 6.24% year-on-year [27][1] - LME copper price increased by 3.96% to $0.91 per ton during the reporting period [27][1] Aluminum - December 2024 alumina production was 750.80 million tons, down 0.65% month-on-month but up 9.70% year-on-year [32][1] - LME aluminum price rose by 3.97% to $0.26 per ton during the reporting period [32][1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold price rose by 3.93% to $2,743.10 per ounce, while SHFE gold price increased by 4.85% to 647.54 yuan per gram [36][1] Lithium and Other Metals - Domestic lithium carbonate production in December 2024 was 37,900 tons, down 5.94% year-on-year [38][1] - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to weak demand, but potential recovery in the digital market may provide support [43][1] - Nickel production in December 2024 was 31,200 tons, up 27.42% year-on-year [46][1] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth elements such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 4.27% to 415,000 yuan per ton [50][1] - Tungsten concentrate price rose by 1.40% to 145,000 yuan per ton [55][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [3][36] - The report recommends "Increase" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home (603833.SH), Sophia (002572.SZ), Guobao Pet (301498.SZ), Explorer (300005.SZ), and Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) [3][36] Core Insights - The domestic furniture industry is expected to see a retail sales total of 169.11 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.60% [9] - The textile and apparel sector's retail sales for clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles are projected to reach 1,469.05 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.30% [27] - The electric two-wheeler industry is anticipated to benefit from the implementation of old-for-new policies and new national standards, leading to sustained growth and increased market concentration among leading companies [35][36] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Development - The furniture manufacturing industry achieved a revenue of 601.68 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 0.80% [9] - The domestic paper products sector saw a production increase of 8.60% in 2024, with a total output of 15,846.89 million tons [21] - The sports and entertainment retail sector recorded a retail sales total of 141.54 billion yuan, growing by 11.10% in 2024 [25] - The textile and apparel sector's clothing retail sales reached 1,071.62 billion yuan, with a modest growth of 0.10% [27] 2. Market Review - From December 30, 2024, to January 24, 2025, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.99 percentage points, with a decline of 5.72% [30] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.45 percentage points, with a decline of 3.27% [31] 3. Monthly Strategy - The report emphasizes the focus on domestic product consumption and the rise of diverse consumption scenarios, particularly during the upcoming Spring Festival [34] - The "2025 National Online New Year Goods Festival" is highlighted as a key event to stimulate consumption, with a focus on premium shopping and cultural tourism [34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "old-for-new" consumption policy, which is anticipated to boost demand in the home furnishing industry [4] - The company has launched the "Whole House 4.0" strategy to enhance its one-stop customization capabilities across all product categories, aiming to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs [4] - The company is projected to experience a decline in revenue in 2024 due to the real estate cycle and intensified market competition, but net profit is expected to grow [2][3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts 2024 revenue between CNY 10.50 billion and CNY 11.67 billion, representing a year-on-year change of -10% to 0% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between CNY 1.32 billion and CNY 1.45 billion, reflecting a growth of 5% to 15% compared to the previous year [2] - The company anticipates a significant impact from non-recurring gains and losses on net profit, with an estimated increase of CNY 229 million to CNY 280 million due to the sale of equity in a subsidiary [3] - For the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue is projected to be between CNY 2.84 billion and CNY 4.01 billion, with a year-on-year change ranging from a decline of 17.95% to an increase of 15.73% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to CNY 1.39, CNY 1.46, and CNY 1.57, respectively, with a 2025 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 times, which is below the average of comparable companies [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the engineering machinery sector [25][35]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that China's engineering machinery import and export trade volume is projected to reach USD 55.45 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.59% [7][8]. - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, emphasizing the expected demand increase due to urban renewal initiatives and the recovery of the real estate market [25]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The rental index for aerial work platforms in December 2024 was 616 points, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.3% [7]. - The import value for engineering machinery in December 2024 was USD 216 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.52%, while the export value was USD 5.047 billion, up 26.3% [7]. Industry Data - The comprehensive steel price index (CSPI) was 96.06 as of January 17, 2025 [9]. Company Announcements - Shandong Weida announced a projected net profit increase of 44.24%-86.31% for 2024 [13]. - Dazhu CNC projected a net profit increase of 99.19%-136.08% for 2024 [14]. Market Review - From January 15 to January 21, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.32%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 2.02%, outperforming the index by 1.71 percentage points [16]. Weekly Insights - Excavator sales in 2024 are expected to reach 201,100 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.13% [25]. - The report anticipates that 2025 will be a pivotal year for humanoid robots, with significant investment opportunities in the related supply chain [25].