Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [5] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [5] Core Views - The report suggests that the steel price is facing insufficient support due to accumulating inventory as downstream enterprises begin to close for the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to domestic and international macroeconomic events affecting steel prices [2][17]. - For copper, the report anticipates weak consumption and increasing inventory as more downstream enterprises close for the holiday, leading to a potential weak fluctuation in copper prices [2][34]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience weak fluctuations due to declining demand as downstream enterprises close for the holiday, alongside a downward trend in alumina prices [2][41]. - The lithium market is projected to see wide fluctuations in carbonate prices due to nearing end-of-year inventory preparations and supply-demand dynamics [2][47]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the tin industry driven by the recovery of the global semiconductor sector and demand from AI and new energy developments [3][67]. Summary by Sections Industry Situation and Product Price Trends - Steel: Inventory continues to accumulate, with steel prices lacking support. Attention is needed on macroeconomic influences [2]. - Copper: Anticipated weak consumption and increasing inventory leading to potential price fluctuations [2]. - Aluminum: Expected weak fluctuations due to declining demand and alumina price trends [2]. - Lithium: Price fluctuations expected due to inventory levels and supply-demand relationships [2]. Weekly Strategy - Copper/Aluminum: Supply disruptions are supporting copper prices, while aluminum profits are expected to expand with new project capacity releases. Positive signals from central government meetings suggest focusing on these sectors [3][67]. - Gold: Recent price increases are linked to risk aversion and macroeconomic data, with long-term factors favoring gold prices [3][67]. - Tin: Positive outlook due to semiconductor recovery and demand from new technologies [3][67]. Key Stock Recommendations - Maintain "Buy" ratings for companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Tin Industry Co. (000960), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to see marginal improvement in Q4 of the previous year and anticipates a gradual recovery throughout this year [1] - The company is implementing a "big home" strategy to address the overall decline in demand for home products due to pressures in new home sales and a sluggish existing home market [5] - The company is expected to benefit from government policies promoting home renovation and replacement, particularly in 2025 [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2024 to be between 258.03 million and 288.39 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5% to 15% [4] - The expected operating revenue for 2024 is projected to be between 1,825.67 million and 2,050.39 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10% to 20% [4] - For Q4 2024, the estimated revenue is between 4.347 billion and 6.625 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change ranging from a decline of 30.10% to an increase of 6.54% [4] - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 14.11% for 2024, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from 2023 [6] Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its EPS forecast for 2024-2026 at 4.37 yuan, 4.61 yuan, and 4.93 yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 13 times for 2025 [7] - The company is expected to see a slight increase in profitability due to enhanced internal management and operational efficiency [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry and textile apparel sectors [4][27] - The report recommends "Increase" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home, Sophia, Explorer, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet [4][27] Core Insights - The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1, 2025, which includes enhanced safety requirements and is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry [3][26] - The central government has allocated 81 billion yuan for the 2025 consumption upgrade policy, which is expected to boost the home furnishing sector as it is seen as a beneficiary of the real estate cycle [4][27] - The light industry and textile apparel sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index during the week of January 13 to January 17, with the light industry gaining 3.25% compared to the index's 2.14% [20][27] Industry News - The Shouguang base of Chenming Group has gradually resumed production, indicating recovery in the paper industry [9] - The Greater Bay Area is being developed into a world fashion capital, with significant growth in the fashion industry expected [9] Company Announcements - Mountain Eagle International expects a loss of 350 million to 390 million yuan in 2024 [19] - Oppein Home anticipates a year-on-year decrease in performance of 5% to 15% for 2024 [19] Market Review - The light industry sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.11 percentage points from January 13 to January 17, with notable performances in the packaging and printing sectors [20][21] - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.02 percentage points during the same period [23][24]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index [30][40]. Core Insights - In December 2024, the national urban rail completed a passenger volume of 2.81 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [11]. - The EU has imposed anti-dumping duties ranging from 20.6% to 54.9% on Chinese mobile elevating work platforms [11]. - In December 2024, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China reached 108.0 hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.5% [12]. - The construction machinery industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing urban renewal initiatives and improved liquidity from local governments, which will likely sustain domestic demand [30]. Industry News - The EU's final ruling on anti-dumping duties on mobile elevating work platforms from China has varied rates, with some companies facing increased duties [11]. - The operating hours of Komatsu excavators globally showed growth, with Japan at 49.2 hours (up 3.1%), Europe at 51.6 hours (up 4.3%), North America at 54.9 hours (up 0.7%), and Indonesia at 203.6 hours (up 5.1%) [12]. Company Announcements - JiuLi Rigging plans to increase capital by 50 million RMB to its subsidiary in Henan, aiming to enhance its operational efficiency and establish a specialized steel wire and rope production base [17]. - Haoshi Electromechanical has forecasted a turnaround in its net profit for 2024, expecting to achieve a profit of 70 million to 102 million RMB due to increased market demand and improved cost management [18]. Market Review - From January 8 to January 14, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.64%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 5.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.44 percentage points [20]. - The overall price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 25.93, with a premium of 117.75% relative to the CSI 300 [21]. Weekly Perspective - The excavator sales in 2024 reached 201,100 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.13%, with domestic sales showing significant growth while exports slightly declined [30]. - The focus on urban renewal and infrastructure investment is expected to drive demand for construction machinery, supported by government initiatives to stabilize the real estate market [30].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the steel market is experiencing a weakening demand due to the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to an accumulation of steel inventory and a potential decline in steel prices. It is essential to monitor overseas macroeconomic disturbances [1][16]. - For copper, the report notes that the demand is expected to remain weak during the off-season, with tight copper ore supply and low smelting processing fees impacting production. Short-term copper prices are anticipated to fluctuate under raw material support [1][31]. - The aluminum market is also expected to see weakened demand as downstream enterprises begin their holiday breaks, with low inventory providing limited support for aluminum prices. The price of alumina is likely to continue its downward trend [2][38]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the tin industry, driven by the recovery of the global semiconductor sector and demand from AI and new energy developments [3][66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing a decline in demand, with inventory levels rising as the Spring Festival approaches. The average steel price index is reported at 3,548.80 CNY/ton, down 1.97% from the previous week [1][28]. - As of January 10, 2025, the total steel inventory is 1,154.23 million tons, reflecting a 1.22% increase from the previous week but a 16.97% decrease year-on-year [21][22]. - The production of five major steel products is reported at 8.0842 million tons, down 2.56% from the previous week and down 7.00% year-on-year [18]. Copper Industry - The report notes that as of January 10, 2025, the LME copper spot price is 9,000 USD/ton, reflecting a 3.38% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper inventory has decreased by 30.70% [35][36]. - The copper smelting fees are reported at 4.67 USD/ton for rough smelting and 0.47 cents/pound for refined smelting [34]. Aluminum Industry - The LME aluminum spot price is reported at 2,600 USD/ton, up 3.45% from the previous week, while SHFE aluminum inventory has decreased by 12.18% [39][41]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate weakly due to reduced demand and ongoing cost declines in the electrolytic aluminum industry [2][38]. Precious Metals - As of January 10, 2025, COMEX gold and silver closing prices are reported at 2,717.40 USD/ounce and 31.30 USD/ounce, respectively, with increases of 2.44% and 3.99% from the previous week [43][44]. New Energy Metals - The report indicates that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 76,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.40% increase from the previous week, while the price of lithium concentrate is reported at 813 USD/ton, up 0.99% [46][49]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earth oxide neodymium praseodymium is reported at 400,500 CNY/ton, up 0.63% from the previous week [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [2][25]. Core Views - The report highlights the commencement of a life paper full industry chain project with an investment exceeding 10 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance production capacity and employment [9]. - The report notes a 10.40% increase in revenue for Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, in the first quarter, indicating strong performance in the retail sector [9]. - The central government has allocated 81 billion yuan for a consumption upgrade program, which is expected to benefit the home furnishing sector as it is positioned to gain from post-real estate cycle consumption [25]. Summary by Sections Industry News - A life paper full industry chain project with an investment of 137 billion yuan has started construction, expected to produce 1.26 million tons of pulp and paper annually, generating an annual output value of 17.6 billion yuan [9]. - Fast Retailing reported a revenue of approximately 41.52 billion yuan for the first quarter, marking a 10.40% year-on-year increase [9]. Sub-industry Ratings - Home Products: Neutral [2] - Paper: Neutral [2] - Packaging and Printing: Neutral [2] - Entertainment Products: Neutral [2] - Textile Manufacturing: Neutral [2] - Apparel and Home Textiles: Neutral [2] Company Announcements - Taiping Bird reported a 39.06% decline in net profit for 2024, attributed to store closures and changes in consumer behavior [20]. - Arrow Home plans to repurchase shares worth between 50 million and 100 million yuan [20]. Market Review - From January 6 to January 10, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.09 percentage points, with a decline of 2.23% [21]. - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.83 percentage points, with a decline of 2.96% [22]. Weekly Strategy - As of January 10, prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with corrugated paper prices decreasing by 30 yuan per ton, while white card paper prices increased by 33.33 yuan per ton [23].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" [2] - Specific companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC are rated as "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - In December 2024, the sales of various excavators reached 19,369 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% [12] - The total sales of excavators in 2024 amounted to 201,131 units, a year-on-year growth of 3.13%, with domestic sales increasing by 11.7% [12] - The report anticipates that the acceleration of urban renewal under high-quality development will drive demand for related equipment, supported by improved liquidity from local governments [32] - The rail transit sector is expected to see continued growth in fixed asset investment, driven by the ongoing maintenance cycle of rail transit vehicles and significant procurement announcements [32] Summary by Sections Industry News - In December 2024, sales of various loaders were 9,410 units, showing a slight decline of 0.08% year-on-year [12] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products decreased by 2.91% month-on-month in December 2024 [12] Industry Data - The comprehensive steel price index (CSPI) was recorded at 96.98 as of January 3, 2025 [15] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices were $73.56 and $76.30 per barrel, respectively, as of January 7, 2025 [16] Company Announcements - Zhonghe Technology's consortium won the bid for the Shenyang Metro Line 10 signal system integration project [19] - Shenzhen Jingzhida's semiconductor testing equipment has completed internal testing and is now being validated by clients [20] Market Review - From January 1 to January 7, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 3.53%, while the mechanical equipment sector declined by 4.28%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.75 percentage points [22] - The TTM P/E ratio for the mechanical equipment sector was 24.83, with a valuation premium of 108.29% relative to the CSI 300 as of January 7, 2025 [24] Weekly Insights - The report maintains a "Positive" industry rating and "Buy" ratings for SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC, citing expected growth in domestic demand for construction machinery [32]

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [1] Core Views - The steel industry is expected to experience a decline in supply and demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to increased inventory pressure and potentially weaker short-term steel prices [1][17] - Copper demand is weak during the off-season, with tight copper ore supply and low smelting processing fees affecting production; short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate under raw material support [1][31] - Aluminum demand may weaken as the holiday season progresses, although the supply tightness trend is easing, which may reduce cost pressures [1][37] - Lithium market sentiment is optimistic for January, but high production enthusiasm on the supply side may lead to inventory pressure, resulting in wide fluctuations in lithium prices [1][42] Summary by Sections Steel - Supply and demand are weakening, with inventory accumulation and insufficient fundamental support leading to a decline in steel prices [17] - As of January 3, 2025, the procurement volume of Shanghai terminal rebar was 13,800 tons, down 22.03% from the previous week [17] - The production of five major steel varieties was 8.2964 million tons, down 1.64% week-on-week and down 5.34% year-on-year [18] - The total steel inventory was 11.4004 million tons, up 0.50% week-on-week but down 16.47% year-on-year [23] Copper - Domestic copper inventory is increasing, and copper prices are declining due to weak downstream consumption [30] - As of January 3, 2025, the copper smelting fee was $5.20 per ton, down 22.96% from the previous week [32] - LME copper spot price was $8,700 per ton, down 1.61% week-on-week [34] Aluminum - Domestic aluminum production increased by 4.13% year-on-year, but demand is expected to weaken as the holiday season approaches [37] - As of January 3, 2025, LME aluminum spot price was $2,500 per ton, down 1.51% week-on-week [38] Lithium - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan per ton, down 0.65% week-on-week [43] - The market is optimistic about January's downstream production, but supply-side production enthusiasm may lead to inventory pressure [42] Precious Metals - As of January 3, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $2,652.70 per ounce, up 0.61% week-on-week [40] - The silver price also saw a slight increase, closing at $30.10 per ounce, up 0.42% week-on-week [40] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earth praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 398,000 yuan per ton, unchanged week-on-week [51] - Tungsten concentrate price was 143,000 yuan per ton, unchanged week-on-week [55]

行 业 研 究 [Table_MainInfo] "两新"政策加力扩围，宠物食品进口关税上调 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | | SAC NO： | | | S1150521120002 | | 年 2025 | 月 1 | 6 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | 行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com | | （1）2025 | | | | 年多个纸种继续实施进口零关税。 | | | | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 子行业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Positive" rating, with specific companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC receiving an "Increase" rating [33][61]. Core Insights - The construction machinery sector shows signs of recovery, with excavator sales improving significantly due to large-scale equipment renewal policies, achieving over 20% growth for three consecutive months [51][58]. - Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector has seen a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.30% from January to November 2024, maintaining the growth rate from the previous ten months [15]. - The industrial robot market is expanding, with a cumulative production of approximately 483,900 units from January to November 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.10% [80]. Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - General Equipment: Positive - Specialized Equipment: Neutral - Transportation Equipment: Neutral - Engineering Machinery: Positive - Automation Equipment: Positive [6]. Monthly Stock Pool - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC, all rated for increase [7]. Market Performance - The machinery equipment industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.92% from December 1 to December 31, 2024, trailing the index by 2.39 percentage points [57]. Infrastructure Investment - National railway fixed asset investment reached 711.7 billion yuan from January to November 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.08% [27]. - The cumulative production of high-speed trains during the same period was 1,576 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.80% [27]. Economic Indicators - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% in November 2024, while the producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month [69].