Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the home appliance sector, particularly highlighting the white goods segment as having high allocation value [3][8]. Core Insights - In Q4 2024, the proportion of fund holdings in the home appliance sector decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 5.19%, while the white goods segment saw an increase in fund allocation, with its market value rising to 3.84% of total fund holdings, up by 0.04 percentage points [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the "old-for-new" policy in 2025 is expected to boost domestic home appliance consumption, alongside the ongoing globalization efforts of appliance companies targeting emerging markets like the Middle East and Latin America [3][8]. - Fund holdings in major companies such as Midea Group and Gree Electric Appliances increased, with Midea's holdings rising by 0.22 percentage points and Gree's by 0.06 percentage points in Q4 2024 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Fund Allocation Trends - The report notes a decrease in the overall fund allocation to the home appliance sector, with a specific decline in the black goods and small appliances segments due to concerns over U.S. tariff risks [4][12]. - The white goods segment, however, experienced a positive trend, with a 2.60% overweight in fund holdings, reflecting a 0.12 percentage point increase [8][10]. Company Performance - Midea Group and Gree Electric Appliances are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the "old-for-new" policy, with Midea's domestic sales benefiting significantly from this initiative [22]. - The report provides a comparative analysis of domestic and international appliance companies, detailing their recent performance metrics, including revenue growth and price-to-earnings ratios [49][50][51][52].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report indicates a slight decrease in equity positions among active equity funds, reflecting a stabilization in risk appetite [1][15] - There is an increase in allocation towards Hong Kong stocks, with median positions rising across various fund types [2][17] - Active equity funds have increased their positions in technology and consumer sectors while reducing exposure to cyclical sectors and pharmaceuticals [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Position Analysis - The median equity position for active equity funds decreased slightly in Q4 2024, with ordinary stock funds at 90.74%, mixed equity funds at 89.15%, and flexible allocation funds at 84.37% [1][15] - The historical percentile for these positions indicates they remain relatively high compared to past data [15] 2. Concentration Analysis - The concentration of individual stocks and sectors has decreased, indicating a more diversified approach among active equity funds [21] - The median concentration for the top 10 stocks decreased by 1.65%, while the top 3 and top 5 sector concentrations also saw declines [21] 3. Sector Analysis - Active equity funds increased their positions in technology, consumer, and financial sectors, with technology seeing the largest increase of 2.89% [3][25] - Conversely, there was a reduction in positions in cyclical sectors and pharmaceuticals, with decreases of 2.41% and 1.16% respectively [25] 4. Primary Industry Analysis - The top three primary industries with increased positions were electronics, banking, and automotive, with electronics seeing a rise of 2.94% [4][32] - The report highlights a significant focus on the electronics sector, with a historical high in allocation [31] 5. Secondary Industry Analysis - The top five secondary industries with increased positions included semiconductors, new energy power systems, and regional banks [5][50] - The report notes a shift towards sectors like semiconductors and new energy, reflecting current market trends [50][59] 6. Heavyweight Stock Analysis - The top three stocks with increased positions were Xiaomi Group, ZTE Corporation, and SMIC, with respective increases of 45.88 billion, 44.90 billion, and 42.19 billion [6][71] - The report also identifies significant reductions in positions for stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Sunshine Power [71] 7. Fund Size Analysis - The report indicates a high proportion of active equity funds are below 1 billion in size, with a notable increase in smaller funds [72][76] - The trend shows a shift towards smaller fund sizes, with a decrease in larger funds [76] 8. Fund Manager Holdings Analysis - The report provides insights into the preferences of top fund managers, with a focus on large-cap stocks among certain managers [80][83] - Different fund managers exhibit varying preferences for sectors, with some favoring technology and others leaning towards consumer sectors [80]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific funds. Core Insights - The report focuses on the analysis of dividend-themed funds, particularly how to participate in investments in these funds, comparing A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, and evaluating both active and passive dividend-themed funds [1][18]. Summary by Sections 1. How to Invest in Dividend-Themed Funds - A-share markets generally outperform Hong Kong markets in terms of dividend index performance, with A-share dividend indices showing more stable excess returns since 2014, averaging 4.11% against the CSI 300 index [5][22]. - The current valuation of Hong Kong dividend indices is relatively lower, with higher dividend yields compared to A-share indices, as evidenced by the PE(TTM) of 7.47 for the Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index [5][25]. - Active funds tend to perform better in rising markets, while passive funds show better resilience in declining markets [5][33]. 2. How to Invest in Active Dividend-Themed Funds - Active dividend-themed funds are evaluated based on three dimensions: return capability, drawdown control, and holding experience [5][40]. - A total of 10 active dividend-themed funds have been identified as performing exceptionally well across these dimensions, including 景顺长城沪港深精选 A and 长盛量化红利策略 A [5][61]. 3. How to Invest in Passive Dividend-Themed Funds - Passive dividend-themed funds are analyzed for liquidity, tracking error, market capitalization style, and sector style [7][185]. - The report highlights that low-volatility dividend indices and central state-owned enterprise dividend indices perform better in declining market environments [7][186]. 4. Performance Analysis of Dividend Indices - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of various dividend indices, indicating that low-volatility and central state-owned enterprise indices have shown superior performance during market downturns [7][186]. 5. Fund Performance and Characteristics - Specific funds such as 景顺长城沪港深精选 A and 长盛量化红利策略 A are noted for their strong performance in terms of returns and drawdown control [5][61][63]. - The report also categorizes funds based on market capitalization styles, identifying large-cap, balanced-cap, and small-cap funds [5][205]. 6. Sector Style Analysis - The report categorizes dividend-themed funds based on their sector allocations, including financial real estate, cyclical sectors, and consumer sectors [5][176]. - Funds that maintain a stable allocation to financial real estate and cyclical sectors are highlighted for their investment strategies [5][176]. 7. Passive Fund Tracking Error Analysis - The report evaluates the tracking errors of passive dividend-themed funds, indicating that lower tracking errors reflect better alignment with their respective indices [7][199]. 8. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding market conditions and fund characteristics when investing in dividend-themed funds, providing a comprehensive overview of strategies and performance metrics [1][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Continuous attention is recommended for the natural gas long-distance pipeline sector, which possesses low volatility and dividend attributes. The sector is characterized by stable business models based on "pipeline transportation fees × gas volume," making it a stable choice within the public utility sector [3][12]. - In 2024, the industrial power generation volume is expected to grow by 4.6% year-on-year, with significant increases in hydropower and nuclear power generation in December [2][12]. - The report highlights the importance of natural gas supply and demand, with a steady increase in natural gas production and consumption in China. In December 2024, the industrial natural gas output reached 21.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.31%, the ChiNext Index increased by 4.66%, the public utility index grew by 1.36%, and the environmental index saw a rise of 4.4% last week [1]. Market Information Tracking - The total trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 134,100 tons this week, with a total transaction value of 0.13 billion yuan. The average transaction price in the Shanghai market was the highest at 72 yuan/ton [17]. - As of January 17, the LNG import price in China was 13.61 USD/mmbtu, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.56% [20]. Focused Companies - Recommended companies include China General Nuclear Power, China Nuclear Power, Xinjie Energy, Shaanxi Energy, Blue Sky Gas, Fuan Energy, and Anhui Natural Gas [14][59]. - Anhui Natural Gas is noted for its stable profits and rapid gas volume growth, while Blue Sky Gas is recognized for its high dividend yield and strategic acquisitions in urban gas [3][59][61]. Industry News - The report discusses various regional initiatives, such as Sichuan's adjustment of natural gas power generation pricing and the establishment of a government-authorized pricing mechanism for coal power plants [27][28]. - The focus on green energy and low-carbon transitions is emphasized, with plans for new energy projects in Hebei and Jiangxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Fuan Energy reported a 23.52% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2024, while Gansu Energy projected a net profit of 1.6 to 1.66 billion yuan for the same year [45]. - The report also highlights the strategic partnerships and projects undertaken by various companies, such as the collaboration between Haitian Co. and China Everbright Environment [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the construction industry, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The construction industry is projected to experience steady growth in infrastructure investment in 2024, with a positive outlook for 2025 due to proactive fiscal policies and increased funding support [3][4]. - The report highlights that the total fixed asset investment in China for 2024 is expected to reach 51.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.4% [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "National Nine Articles" and "1+N" policy framework, which aims to enhance market value management and promote cash dividends among listed companies [4][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to reach 134.91 trillion yuan, marking a 5% year-on-year growth, with infrastructure investment showing a growth rate of 4.4% [2][14]. - The report notes that the growth rates for narrow and broad infrastructure investments are 4.40% and 9.19%, respectively, with significant contributions from the energy and utilities sector, which saw a 23.90% increase [15][35]. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a 2.95% increase in stock prices from January 13 to January 17, 2025, with all sub-sectors showing positive performance [17][21]. - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved operational metrics and market returns [9][28]. Company Announcements - The report includes significant contract announcements, such as China Energy Construction winning a bid for a 62.55 billion yuan project, indicating robust demand in the sector [31]. - It also highlights the performance of various companies, with China Nuclear Engineering reporting a new contract value of 162.37 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.62% [32]. Industry News - The report discusses the ongoing efforts by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to implement policies that enhance market value management and promote high-quality development among central enterprises [33][34]. - It notes that the government is focusing on optimizing the real estate market and increasing investment in major infrastructure projects, which is expected to further stimulate the construction sector [34].

Group 1: Market Trends - The sudden rise in funding rates has created pressure on the bond market, leading to passive deleveraging and a historical high in the duration of negative carry[1][12][13][14] - The average capital gain loss for credit bonds within five years has reached 16%, indicating a "slow gain, fast loss" characteristic that affects demand for new funds[2][3][26][27] Group 2: Asset Performance - Interest rate bonds have shown greater stability compared to credit bonds, with the 10-year and above government bonds performing well despite funding pressures[2][4][20] - The cumulative capital gains for 30-year government bonds have reached 8.8%, with total returns exceeding 9% when considering coupon income[2][26] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on local government bonds with yields around 2.3% to 2.4% as suitable base assets, and on large bank subordinated bonds with yields between 1.8% and 1.9%[2][51] - Insurance companies have significantly increased their holdings in long-term credit bonds, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation[2][42][47]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Leading the Market - A" indicating a projected investment return exceeding the CSI 300 Index by 10% or more over the next six months [2][63]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Aokai Electric is a rapidly growing provider of household and central air conditioning, ranking as the fifth largest air conditioning supplier globally by sales volume in 2023 [2][3]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a revenue increase of 27% in 2023 and 15% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by an expanding sales network and an increase in overseas customers [2][3]. - Aokai Electric aims to accelerate its global expansion, enhance its own brand sales, particularly overseas, and continue to develop its central air conditioning business [2]. Revenue Sources - The primary revenue source for Aokai Electric is household air conditioning, while central air conditioning revenue has been growing rapidly, with revenue growth rates of 46% in 2023 and 16% in the first three quarters of 2024 [6]. Profitability - The gross margin for central air conditioning is higher than that of household air conditioning, and the report indicates an upward trend in the gross margin for central air conditioning due to improved product mix and increased sales of higher-margin products [10]. Sales Channels - Aokai Electric has diversified its sales channels, with overseas revenue accounting for over 40% of total revenue. The company is actively promoting its OBM business in various countries, including Malaysia, Thailand, and the United States [13].

Summary of the Conference Call for Guotou Electric Power Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the electric power industry in Sichuan Province, focusing on the supply and demand situation, as well as the pricing expectations for hydropower [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Stable Supply and Pricing**: The supply and demand situation for electricity in Sichuan Province is expected to remain stable, with hydropower prices maintaining a relatively stable level. The market-oriented portion of Yalong River's electricity accounts for approximately 10-15%, which has a limited impact on overall profitability [3][4]. - **Long-term Contract Pricing for 2025**: - Tianjin: No significant change - Fujian: Decrease of 0.03 CNY/kWh - Guizhou: Decrease of 0.017 CNY/kWh - Guangxi: Negotiation pressure is high, and prices are yet to be determined [4][5]. - **Impact of Self-owned Power Sales Company**: The company's self-owned power sales company has a limited effect on balancing the price reduction of thermal power. Future strategies for long-term contracts and spot market pricing are heavily influenced by government supply guarantee policies [4][6]. - **Profitability Challenges in Guangxi**: The profitability outlook for Guangxi in 2025 is challenging due to high electricity price pressures, despite a decrease in coal prices providing some cost advantages. A recovery in prices is anticipated next year [4][7]. - **Coal Procurement Structure for 2024**: The coal procurement structure for 2024 consists of 45% long-term contract coal, 45% imported coal, and 10% market coal. This structure is expected to remain stable without significant adjustments in 2025 [4][8]. - **Long-term Coal Contract Signing**: The signing of long-term coal contracts for 2025 is expected to be completed in January, with price negotiations ongoing [4][9]. - **Pressure from Thermal Power Enterprises**: There is a strong price reduction demand from thermal power enterprises due to high current electricity prices. The company plans to increase its renewable energy capacity to 17 million kW by 2025 [4][10]. - **Hydropower Pricing Competitiveness**: The average on-grid price for hydropower in the third quarter was approximately 0.28 CNY/kWh, which remains competitive even when delivered to Jiangsu [4][12]. - **Debt Situation of Yangfanggou**: As of the third quarter of 2024, the cumulative debt for Yangfanggou is approximately 6 billion CNY, with an annual increase of about 2 billion CNY [4][13]. - **Profitability of Yalong River's Photovoltaic Projects**: The largest photovoltaic project at Yalong River has a capacity of 1 million kW, with a profit of about 100 million CNY in 2023 and an internal rate of return (ROE) of 10-13% [4][14]. - **Capital Expenditure Plans**: The company plans to invest nearly 35 billion CNY in 2024, with allocations of 20 billion CNY for renewable energy, 10 billion CNY for hydropower, and 5 billion CNY for thermal power [4][15]. - **Dividend Policy**: The company commits to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 55% from 2024 to 2026, with actual ratios depending on operational conditions and shareholder demands [4][16]. - **Accounts Receivable**: The accounts receivable over one year mainly include debts from Yangfanggou and operational subsidies [4][17]. - **Asset Composition**: Water power assets account for over 70% of the company's fixed assets, while thermal and renewable energy assets combined account for 30-40% [4][18]. - **Cautious Approach to Overseas Investment**: The company maintains a cautious stance on overseas expansion, with no new projects planned [4][19]. - **Future Dividend Potential**: The potential for increasing dividends depends on the company's future project investments and funding needs [4][20]. - **2025 Performance Expectations**: The water power sector is expected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024, while the thermal power sector will continue to face pressure [4][21]. - **Renewable Energy Subsidy Situation**: The company has approximately 6 billion CNY in outstanding renewable energy subsidies, with limited annual cash flow recovery [4][22]. - **Negotiation Power in Jiangsu**: Hydropower has certain negotiation power due to its peak-shaving capabilities and clean energy status, but outcomes depend on annual negotiations [4][23]. - **Impact of Coastal Price Declines**: The company has limited renewable energy reserves in coastal areas, focusing on projects in Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Tianjin [4][24][25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is maintained at "Buy-A" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 124-130 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 77%-85% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to see a net profit of 20-26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -2% to +27% [2] - The growth in profits is primarily driven by scale effects, increased exports, and higher sales of high-end models [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 127.3 billion yuan in 2024, 170.3 billion yuan in 2025, and 190.1 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.4, 13.0, and 11.7 times [4][9] - The expected revenue for 2024 is 2,023.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.8% [11] Market Outlook - The off-road vehicle market has significant potential, with the Hi4Z technology expected to enhance the performance of the Tank series [3] - The company is making progress in mainstream markets, with successful product refinement and marketing strategies [3] - The diverse product range and technological reserves indicate strong export potential [3] Valuation - The target price for the stock is set at 39.80 yuan per share, based on a 20 times PE ratio for 2025 [4] - The current stock price is 25.93 yuan, indicating a potential upside [6]

2025 年 1 月 14 日 内容提要 2024 年 12 月通胀数据显示总需求不足的局面延续，存货调整对经济活动的 推升或趋于尾声，未来通胀水平的回升可能较长时间。同期出口的走强可能来自 于抢出口的行为，持续性取决于中美贸易关系的变化。 尽管 12 月的房地产市场成交出现改善，但房地产企业的股票和债券价格出 现较大幅度的波动。这表明当前房地产主体的流动性压力依然突出。在需求不 足、预期转弱的背景下，房地产企业流动性环境的改善可能依赖于政策的纾困。 当前权益市场基于基本面反转的定价或许需要较长时间，流动性环境的宽 松可能在受到汇率的牵制。不过考虑到监管当局对市场风险的关注以及稳定资 本市场的决心，我们倾向于认为市场单边下行的风险有限，仍处于震荡环境中。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————经济波澜不惊，市场起伏加剧 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡（联系人）3 证券研究报告/国投证券宏观定期报告 第 1 页，共 11 页 2025 年 1 月 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，shujp ...