2025 年 12 月 07 日 有色金属 铜铝锡持续上涨，重视贵金属板块 本周有色金属指数周涨幅 5.12%，领跑行业板块。其中，铜铝锡等细 分板块涨幅较高。宏观方面，下周美联储利率决议，市场预期降息 25bp 概率超 80%，特朗普称明年初将宣布美联储主席人选，点名凯 文·哈塞特作为潜在候选人，市场看好 26 年降息周期下的有色普涨 行情。铜因供应紧张叠加伦敦、中国库存偏低，铜价开始拉涨，lme 铜价涨超 11500 美元/吨；锡因供应问题持续扰动，价格涨超 31.5 万 元/吨；铝因低库存叠加国内降息预期，表现强势。下周美联储议息 会议，建议重视贵金属板块的机会，持续看好金银铜铝锡稀土锑锂钴 钽铀等金属，我们预计价格仍有上涨空间。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4197.6、58.3 美元/盎司,环比分别 -0.49%、+3.31%。美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，低于市场 预期，就业市场趋于疲软。特朗普点名凯文·哈塞特作为潜在候选人， 哈塞特表示现在是美联储"谨慎降息"的好时机，市场对 12 月会议 将降息的预期延续。考虑到前期美国政府停摆对就业的负面影响，预 计美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target price set for the leading stocks [7]. Core Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration released the "Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory (2025)", which includes 19 high-cost innovative drugs, including five CAR-T therapies and two Alzheimer's drugs. This is expected to improve payment difficulties for high-value innovative drugs and provide an additional payment pathway beyond basic medical insurance [3][24]. - The report highlights several promising stocks to watch, including those with high certainty for overseas expansion and those with potential overseas data catalysts [2][22]. Weekly New Drug Market Review - From December 1 to December 7, 2025, the new drug sector saw significant stock movements, with the top five gainers being Beihai Kangcheng (+13.94%), Maibo Pharmaceutical (+11.32%), Jiahe Biotech (+8.38%), Junsheng Tai (+7.14%), and Nuo Si Lan De (+6.27%). Conversely, the top five losers included Shengnuo Pharmaceutical (-15.18%), Shouyao Holdings (-9.06%), Boan Biotech (-8.62%), Tengsheng Bo Pharmaceutical (-8.05%), and Yiming Angke (-7.72%) [1][16]. New Drug Approval and Acceptance Status - This week, one new drug or new indication application was approved, and 16 new drug or new indication applications were accepted in the domestic market [4][28]. Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance Status - A total of 44 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 40 new drug clinical applications were accepted this week [5][31].

- The **cyclical analysis model** suggests that despite previous market adjustments and a short-term upward channel breakdown, the monthly upward trend since early 2024 may still persist. This conclusion is supported by comparing the current market structure with the 2017 December trend using **Chan theory** and the **thermometer indicator** for similarity analysis[6] - The **trend strength factor** indicates that since the end of November, the oversold rebound has significantly improved the multi-moving average alignment, leading to a notable recovery in upward trend strength. This supports the view of a moderately positive market outlook[6] - The **industry divergence indicator** has dropped to historically low levels in recent years. Historical data shows that during bull markets or upward trends, low levels of industry divergence often correspond to local lows or even significant bottoms, which is a key basis for maintaining a positive outlook for December[6] - The **four-wheel drive model** signals are relatively dispersed, with notable performances in large-cap value, small-cap growth, technology, and high-dividend sectors. Specific signals on Thursday and Friday highlighted opportunities in non-bank financials, China New Materials, and defense sectors[6][15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.68%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.86%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.45% [2] - The total market turnover was HKD 179.306 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 31.357 billion, representing 19.84% of the total turnover of shortable stocks [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.48 billion, with the most net purchases in the top ten active stocks being in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK), Xiaomi Group (1810.HK), and Xpeng Motors (9868.HK) [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. stock market exhibited a "standstill" trend, with major indices fluctuating near historical highs, reflecting a stable risk appetite among investors [3] - The S&P 500 rose by approximately 0.1%, while the Nasdaq increased by about 0.2%, indicating a slight preference for growth stocks [3] - The Russell 2000 index rose by about 0.8%, outperforming the broader market, suggesting a rotation of funds from large-cap stocks to more resilient sectors like robotics [3] Group 3: Robotics Sector Insights - The robotics sector is experiencing a significant policy-driven acceleration, with U.S. Secretary of Commerce engaging with CEOs in the industry to promote tax incentives, R&D support, and policies for supply chain repatriation [4] - This initiative is viewed as a continuation of the U.S. AI national strategy, aiming to translate technological benefits into actual productivity and job quality improvements [4] Group 4: Influenza Activity and Related Industries - Recent data indicates a significant rise in influenza activity in China, with 1,234 reported outbreaks in the 47th week of 2025, predominantly caused by the H3N2 subtype [8] - The percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases reported by sentinel hospitals in southern provinces was 7.8%, up from 6.8% the previous week, and higher than the same period in 2022 and 2024 [8] - The CDC anticipates further increases in influenza activity levels, which may drive demand in related industries such as flu medications and vaccines [8] Group 5: Recommendations for Investment - Short-term focus is recommended on sectors related to influenza medications, vaccines, and respiratory diagnostics, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [11] - Companies involved in flu vaccines include Hualan Biological Engineering (301207.SZ) and Zhonghui Biological-B (2627.HK), while flu medication companies include Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ) and Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical (6887.HK) [11]

2025 年 12 月 04 日 统联精密(688210.SH) 推进轻质材料业务布局，新增产能规模 效益有望逐步释放 事件：发布可转债预案，资金拟投向轻质材料项目 2025 年 11 月 21 日，公司公布发行可转换公司债券预案，本次拟发 行可转换公司债券募集资金总额不超过人民币 5.76 亿元。拟使用本 次募集资金金额中 4.65 亿元用于新型智能终端零组件（轻质材料） 智能制造中心项目，通过本项目的实施，公司将构建和强化以轻质材 料应用为基础的先进制造工艺的研发及规模化制造能力，推进和完善 公司多样化精密零部件平台建设。 AI 驱动产品形态多元演进，轻量化为智能终端创新方向之一 AI 对智能终端功能体系与应用场景的重构，驱动产品形态向多元化 方向演进，不仅催生行业增量市场，更促使硬件厂商将轻量化作为核 心创新方向之一。以 AI 手机、AIPC、AI 眼镜为代表的新型智能终端 加速渗透消费市场，其核心应用场景正从传统固定式操作向穿戴、手 持及移动化交互迁移。鉴于端侧 AI 功能使用频率与其在多场景下实 现人机直接交互的能力高度关联，智能终端设备的轻便性与便携性已 成为消费者购机决策的关键要素。以钛合金、镁 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng with a target price of HKD 6.0 [1][4]. Core Insights - Bosideng's revenue for the first half of FY26 increased by 1.4% year-on-year to RMB 89.28 billion, while net profit rose by 5.3% to RMB 11.89 billion, indicating healthy growth [2][4]. - The brand's down jacket business saw an 8.3% increase in revenue to RMB 65.68 billion, although the gross margin declined by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% [2][4]. - The OEM business faced challenges, with revenue decreasing by 11.7% to RMB 20.44 billion, but gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% due to better supply chain management [3][4]. - The women's clothing segment experienced an 18.6% decline in revenue to RMB 2.51 billion, reflecting a tough market environment [3][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing channel quality and enhancing store operations, with a net increase of 88 down jacket stores to 3,558 [3][4]. Financial Summary - For FY26, the projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 0.35, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for revenue and 11.3% for net profit [4][5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.3% for FY26, with a net profit margin of 13.7% [5][14]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue from RMB 28.51 billion in FY26 to RMB 34.70 billion by FY28, with corresponding net profits rising from RMB 3.91 billion to RMB 4.86 billion [5][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 126.71 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is actively participating in national strategic projects, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" to drive breakthroughs in key technologies in integrated circuits, high-end instruments, and other critical areas [1]. - The high-end microscope business is expected to see a recovery in growth, with the proportion of high-end products exceeding 40% of total microscope sales [2]. - The company is diversifying its optical business, with semiconductor optics expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [3]. Summary by Sections Business Development - The company is leading national major instrument projects, focusing on ultra-high resolution imaging technology and surgical navigation microscopes, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [2]. - The high-end microscope segment is projected to recover in the second half of 2025, with a significant increase in high-end product orders [2]. Optical Business Diversification - Barcode scanning and machine vision businesses are growing steadily, with successful collaborations with major clients like Zebra and Honeywell [3]. - The automotive laser radar optical components have achieved mass production, with shipments nearing one million units in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The medical optical segment has seen substantial growth, driven by domestic substitution and increased overseas demand for medical imaging components [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.09 billion CNY, 1.40 billion CNY, and 1.78 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits of 270 million CNY, 367 million CNY, and 480 million CNY [8][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong competitive advantage in precision optical manufacturing, with continued growth in microscopes and semiconductor optics [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling approximately 1.3%, and overall market sentiment remained weak, leading to a decrease in trading volume to about 1,644 billion HKD [2][3] - Southbound capital flows showed a decrease, with net inflows remaining low at around 2.3 billion HKD, indicating a cautious market environment [2][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical and technology sectors were the main contributors to the market decline, with significant sell-offs in high-valuation areas such as biomedicine and AI healthcare [3] - The real estate sector continued to struggle, reflecting ongoing concerns about financing conditions and sales data [3] - Consumer stocks also saw a downturn, indicating insufficient recovery in domestic demand, particularly in the automotive sector, which faced notable weakness [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - JD Industrial - JD Industrial is a leading industrial supply chain service platform in China, focusing on supply chain technology and services through its "Taipu" platform, covering over 8.11 million SKUs across 80 categories [6][7] - For the first half of 2025, JD Industrial reported a transaction scale of 14.6 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with self-operated transactions accounting for approximately 66% [6][7] - The company is set to go public, with JD Group retaining a 72.34% stake post-IPO, indicating a strong backing from its parent company [7] Group 4: Financial Performance - JD Industrial's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 10.3 billion HKD, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth, with a gross profit margin of 18.6% [7][8] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 495 million HKD, marking a 34% increase, with a profit margin of 4.8% [7][8] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The industrial supply chain technology and services market in China is projected to reach approximately 800 billion HKD in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2025 to 2029, driven by the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [8][9] - JD Industrial holds a leading market share of 4.1% in the domestic supply chain technology and services market, outpacing the industry growth rate [8][9] Group 6: Competitive Advantages - The industry has significant room for online penetration due to the fragmented distribution channels, and JD Industrial's leading market position and high customer retention rates provide a competitive edge [9] Group 7: IPO Details - The IPO is scheduled from December 3 to December 8, 2025, with expected net proceeds of approximately 2.827 billion HKD, allocated for enhancing supply chain solutions, expanding product categories, and potential strategic acquisitions [11][12] - The offering price is set between 12.7 and 15.5 HKD, with a projected market capitalization of 34 to 41.5 billion HKD post-IPO [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 35.76 CNY per share, while the current share price is 26.89 CNY as of December 3, 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of 11.42% in Q3 2025, reaching 145 million CNY, despite a year-on-year decline of 25.79% in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The FPGA market is expected to grow from 11.73 billion USD in 2025 to 19.34 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increasing demand in data centers, telecommunications, and automotive applications [1]. - The company has established a complete technology chain in automotive electronics, with FPGA products already in mass production for key industry clients, and has received AEC-Q100 Grade 2 certification for some products [3]. - The company is also seeing commercial success in emerging fields such as intelligent computing servers, with its FPGA chips widely used in data centers [3]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 368 million CNY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -191 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.08% [2]. - The company's R&D expenses accounted for 69.45% of total expenses, indicating a strong commitment to innovation despite the revenue decline [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 623 million CNY in 2025, 830 million CNY in 2026, and 1.024 billion CNY in 2027, with net profits expected to improve from -198 million CNY in 2025 to -8 million CNY in 2027 [11]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 23 times in 2025, reflecting the ongoing development of its FPGA product portfolio and the growth in automotive electronics and intelligent computing servers [11].

果链集体走强。其中，瑞声科技 2018.HK 涨 3.95%，富智康集团 2038.HK 涨 5.38%，高伟电子 1415.HK 涨 3%，丘钛科技 1478.HK 涨 1.68%，比亚迪电子 285.HK 涨 1.83%。苹果首款折迭屏手机 iPhone Fold 有望明年年底前发布，引 发市场关注。 昨夜美股在比特币及科技股带动下全面反弹，三大指数扭转前一日大跌格局， 市场情绪明显回暖，投资人重新押注联准会 12 月会议有望启动降息，带动风 险资产同步走强。标普 500 指数上涨约 0.25%、纳斯达克指数则在大型科技与 AI 题材股推动下上涨约 0.6%，反映成长类资产买盘回流。 昨日，港股三大指数涨跌互现。截至收盘，恒生指数涨 0.24%，国企指数涨 0.11%， 恒生科技指数跌 0.37%。大市成交金额 1,782.47 亿元，主板总卖空金额 274.03 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 17.51%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易 净流入 41.01 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是美团 3690.HK、小米集团 1810.HK、阿里巴巴 9988.HK；净卖出最多的是腾 ...