Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" with a target to exceed the market by 10% or more in the next six months [2][38]. Core Insights - Online sales of major home appliance categories have rapidly recovered post-Spring Festival, with significant year-on-year growth in sales for various products [2][6]. - The "old-for-new" policy is effectively driving home appliance sales, with over 397 million consumers participating and sales exceeding 20 billion yuan as of February 19, 2025 [3][5]. - The sales growth for specific categories during the weeks following the Spring Festival includes sweeping robots (+264%), air conditioners (+217%), range hoods (+135%), and color TVs (+83%) [2][6]. Summary by Sections Online Sales Performance - In January 2025, online sales of white goods and color TVs faced pressure due to the Spring Festival timing, but they rebounded strongly in February [2][6]. - Year-on-year sales growth for major appliances during the weeks of February 3 to February 16, 2025, shows significant recovery [7]. Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has been smoothly implemented, with substantial consumer engagement leading to increased sales across 12 major appliance categories [3][5]. - The estimated sales driven by this policy have surpassed 20 billion yuan, with central subsidies exceeding 3 billion yuan [3][5]. Market Performance - The report includes a detailed analysis of the performance of domestic and international home appliance companies, highlighting recent stock price changes and projected revenue growth [34][35][36][37].

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————汇率约束利率、AI 主导股市 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡（联系人）3 2025 年 02 月 18 日 内容提要 1 月社融的同比多增主要源于贷款和政府债券的支撑。这既有政府债券发行 提速的影响，也与银行争取"开门红"有关。同期居民部门信贷增速仍然偏弱， 显示终端需求尚未明显改善。 伴随近期部分数据回暖、以及稳汇率压力增加，银行间资金面持续收紧，此 前的降息预期明显回摆，债券收益率出现上行。考虑到这一趋势的延续，短端利 率未来一段时间或将维持高位。而从经济和通胀来看，长端利率配置价值犹存。 当下对未来 AI 应用的交易是春季躁动行情的一部分。未来一两个月经济数 据和企业财报将逐步披露，围绕两会的政策预期交易也将展开，届时政策预期与 现实的博弈将重回定价的核心。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 证券研究报告/国投证券宏观定期报告 第 1 页，共 11 页 2025 年 2 月 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，shujp@essence.com.cn，S1450523010002 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" [6] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a stable growth trend, driven by demand in sectors such as AI, new energy vehicles, and consumer electronics [17] - The introduction of advanced AI models like DeepSeek is enhancing the search experience across various platforms, indicating a shift towards AI integration in consumer products [1][25] - BYD's announcement to equip all its models with the high-level driving system "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" reflects a growing trend towards intelligent driving technologies becoming standard in vehicles [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic index PE is at 48.77 times, with a 10-year PE percentile of 68.19% [4][35] - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 0.92%, ranking 27th out of 31 industries [4][36] - The top three gainers in the electronic sector for the week were Yunzhong Technology (+29.69%), Zhishang Technology (+22.73%), and Liyang Chip (+20.83%) [4][33] Semiconductor Sector - AI remains the core driver of incremental demand in the semiconductor market, with stable growth observed in automotive and industrial sectors [17] - TSMC reported a monthly revenue of 293.29 billion NTD in January 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.90% [17] Consumer Electronics - The DeepSeek AI model is being integrated into various products, with different configurations available for enterprise users, indicating a trend towards AI-driven solutions in consumer electronics [25] - In October 2024, China's smartphone shipments reached 27.884 million units, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 1.1% but a month-on-month increase of 17.6% [25][26] Electric Vehicles - BYD plans to equip 21 models with the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" intelligent driving system, emphasizing the trend of intelligent driving becoming a standard feature across all vehicles [3][20] - The domestic production of new energy vehicles increased from 1.074 million units last year to 1.566 million units in November 2024, reflecting strong consumer demand [20]

Performance Overview - The simulated portfolio experienced a significant decline this week, with credit style strategies outperforming rate style strategies[1] - Among rate style strategies, the city investment ultra-long and city investment barbell strategies had smaller drawdowns of -0.32% and -0.33% respectively[1] - In the credit style strategies, the city investment ultra-long and barbell strategies reported returns of -0.02% and -0.06% respectively[1] Yield Sources - Yield from various strategy combinations generally declined, with capital loss significantly impacting the returns of the secondary capital bond heavy strategy[2] - The weekly yield for the secondary capital bond duration strategy fell to a low of 0.035%, with a minor decline compared to previous weeks[2] - The yield contributions from the secondary capital bond heavy strategy were around -15%, indicating substantial capital loss[2] Excess Returns Tracking - The city investment barbell strategy achieved a cumulative excess return of 31.8 basis points (bp) over the past four weeks, outperforming other medium to long-term strategies[3] - More than half of the strategies recorded cumulative excess returns below 10 bp, indicating a decline in the effectiveness of credit strategies[3] - The short-end strategies, particularly the deposit strategy, underperformed the benchmark, with excess returns dropping to -4.3 bp, the lowest since early December[3] Risk Factors - There are potential distortions in the simulated portfolio configuration methods and errors in yield calculation methods[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" for the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in demand for industrial metals as the post-holiday period approaches, supported by a loose domestic monetary policy and ongoing overseas tariff policy negotiations [1][23]. - The report suggests focusing on specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Jiangxi Copper among others, indicating potential investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Domestic monetary policy remains accommodative, while overseas tariff negotiations continue, impacting industrial metal prices positively [1][23]. - Copper prices have shown strength, with LME copper closing at $9,465 per ton, up 0.26% week-on-week, and SHFE copper at ¥78,090 per ton, up 1.09% [29]. - Aluminum prices are also on the rise, with LME aluminum at $2,635 per ton, up 0.27%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,710 per ton, up 0.53% [35]. - Zinc prices have shown slight fluctuations, with LME zinc at $2,839 per ton, down 0.12% [6]. - Tin prices have increased significantly, with LME tin at $32,615 per ton, up 5.11% [7]. Energy Metals - The Mariana lithium salt lake project has commenced production, with a planned annual capacity of 20,000 tons of lithium chloride [39]. - The outlook for solid-state batteries is positive, with significant developments expected by 2027 [39]. Lithium - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices are at ¥76,250 per ton, down 1.4% week-on-week, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide is at ¥70,500 per ton, down 0.1% [42]. - Supply remains tight due to low import volumes, while demand from downstream sectors is cautious [42]. Nickel - Nickel prices are under pressure, with electrolytic nickel priced at ¥125,400 per ton, down 2.5% [11]. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is affected by seasonal weather, but overall supply remains ample [11]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are declining, with electrolytic cobalt at ¥162,500 per ton, down 0.6% [12]. - Demand remains weak as downstream purchasing activity is slow [12]. Rare Earths - Supply of rare earth raw materials is tight, leading to fluctuations in prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium [13]. Precious Metals - Gold prices remain strong amid ongoing tariff negotiations and inflation risks, with COMEX gold closing at $2,893.7 per ounce, up 0.26% [14].

Group 1: Market Trends - The main theme in A-shares this week is DS, with AI-driven gains lifting blue-chip stocks, indicating a potential shift away from pricing based on economic fundamentals and fiscal expectations since September 2022[1] - If stocks continue to become desensitized to economic fundamentals and fiscal policies, it will represent a significant macroeconomic change[1] Group 2: AI+ Implications - AI+ may serve not only as a thematic investment but also as a hedge against domestic overcapacity cycles and could influence the rhythm of China-US relations[1] - The transition from current enterprise consumption DS to future edge-side capital expenditures aligns with macroeconomic logic[1] Group 3: Asset Pricing Dynamics - In terms of asset performance, A-shares experienced a "break flag" during the Lantern Festival, while Hong Kong stocks confirmed a "finger pointing to the road" on Valentine's Day[1] - The black commodity market is characterized by weak demand and low inventory, creating an intertwined dynamic[1] - Bond markets are facing high funding costs and weak economic expectations, leading to a split between short-term and long-term yields[1] - The pricing logic of major asset classes appears to be diverging this week, but it is expected to eventually converge unless new significant variables or market signals emerge[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 5.45 CNY, while the current stock price is 5.06 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is actively deepening its digital transformation by integrating its three major smart platforms with DeepSeek, enhancing AI design capabilities, marketing precision, and creating a unified smart living environment [2][6]. - The strategic focus is on digitalization, intelligence, internationalization, and sustainability, marking a significant shift from traditional home retail to smart home experience centers [3][6]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 137.16 billion, 149.63 billion, and 164.28 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 9.71 billion, 11.38 billion, and 12.62 billion CNY [6][7]. Summary by Sections Digital Transformation - The company has successfully integrated its platforms with DeepSeek, which enhances AI design responsiveness and marketing accuracy, providing personalized recommendations based on user data [2][6]. - The collaboration with major tech companies like Alibaba and Huawei is aimed at furthering digital and intelligent cooperation, with over 300 partner brands and 300,000 smart devices connected [5][6]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 12.98 billion CNY in 2022, with projections for 2023 at 13.51 billion CNY and expected growth in subsequent years [7][9]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 971 million CNY, with a recovery expected in 2025 and 2026 [6][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic home furnishing industry, with a steady expansion of home furnishing markets and a supportive "old-for-new" policy [6][7]. - The stock has shown strong performance with a relative return of 43.0% over the past month and 79.5% over the past three months [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 39.80 CNY per share [3]. Core Views - January sales met expectations, with a total wholesale volume of 81,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 40% and a year-on-year decrease of 22% [1][2]. - The decline in sales is attributed to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with a notable drop in both new energy and fuel vehicle sales [2]. - The Tank 500Hi4Z model has shown strong delivery performance, with 3,668 units delivered within 20 days of its launch [2][3]. - The company is expected to enter a new growth phase, driven by a comprehensive transformation and successful product launches [3]. Sales Performance - In January, the breakdown of sales included 22,000 new energy vehicles (down 47% month-on-month, down 11% year-on-year) and 59,000 fuel vehicles (down 37% month-on-month, down 26% year-on-year) [2]. - Retail sales for January are estimated at approximately 55,000 units, with new energy vehicle retail sales around 20,000 units [2]. - The Tank brand sold 13,000 units in January, while the Haval brand sold 49,000 units, and the Wey brand sold 5,007 units, reflecting varying performance across different models [2][3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Great Wall Motors from 2024 to 2026 are 12.73 billion CNY, 17.03 billion CNY, and 19.01 billion CNY, respectively [3][10]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are expected to be 16.7, 12.5, and 11.2 times [3][10]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue, with estimates of 202.31 billion CNY in 2024, 290.17 billion CNY in 2025, and 324.99 billion CNY in 2026 [10]. Market Outlook - The off-road market presents substantial growth potential, with the Hi4Z technology expected to enhance the Tank brand's market penetration [3]. - The company is focusing on refining its products and marketing strategies, which are anticipated to yield positive results in the domestic market [3]. - Great Wall Motors has a diverse product lineup and strong technological capabilities, indicating significant export potential as new models and powertrains are introduced [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the building materials industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The building materials sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market, particularly through the demand for renovation in the second-hand housing market and the ongoing transformation of supply channels [2][7] - Cement and fiberglass industries are anticipated to experience a bottom-up recovery, supported by improved pricing strategies and demand stabilization [3][7] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Real estate sales area is expected to stabilize, with construction and new starts still under pressure, while infrastructure investment is projected to act as a stabilizer for growth in 2025 [1] - The real estate sector will maintain a loose policy framework in 2024, with significant policy releases on May 17 and September 24 aimed at improving sales data, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year decline in new housing sales area [1][16] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 4.4% year-on-year in 2024, with fiscal policies set to be positive in 2025, supporting a faster pace of infrastructure investment [1] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is expected to face revenue and performance declines in 2024 due to the real estate sector's challenges, but leading companies are effectively implementing channel construction and product expansion strategies [2] - The demand for consumer building materials in 2025 will shift towards renovation needs driven by the recovery in second-hand housing transactions and the redecoration of existing homes [2] - The credit risk release in the real estate sector is likely to reach its tail end in 2024, with significant potential for performance recovery in 2025 [2] Cement - The cement industry is currently facing demand shrinkage and oversupply, but a strategic shift among leading companies is expected to enhance profitability through price increases starting in late 2024 [3] - The demand for cement is anticipated to be dragged down by new housing starts in 2025, but sufficient funding support for infrastructure projects is expected to create demand [3] - Supply-side optimization policies are expected to alleviate supply-demand imbalances, supporting price stabilization and profit recovery in the cement sector [3] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing pressure from declining demand, but a series of price recovery initiatives are expected to improve performance gradually [7] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly wind energy and automotive, is projected to improve, contributing to a positive outlook for fiberglass pricing and profitability in 2025 [7] - The supply-side capacity is still growing, but the willingness of fiberglass companies to maintain price levels is clear, indicating potential for improved pricing and profitability in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on interest rates, indicating a downward trend in rates based on quantitative model signals [5][6]. Core Insights - The overall signal from the interest rate timing model suggests a downward movement in interest rates, with trend signals starting from November 8, 2024, and volatility signals from December 2, 2024 [5][6]. - The median duration of public funds slightly decreased by 0.03 years to 2.89 years, placing it at the 74th percentile over the past three years [16]. - The duration divergence index increased to 0.58, which is at the 78th percentile over the past three years, indicating rising divergence among fund durations [2][16]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Timing Model - The latest model signals indicate a shift to a downward outlook for interest rates, with the total signal direction confirming this since December 2, 2024 [5]. - The model has maintained a bullish signal since the beginning of 2025, continuing from the previous year's signals [6]. Duration Tracking - The median duration of public funds has slightly decreased, reflecting a cautious approach among fund managers [16]. - The increase in the duration divergence index suggests a growing disparity in duration strategies among different funds [2][16].