Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% in the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's home decoration festival, running from September 15 to October 20, is expected to boost performance in the decoration channel, with significant promotional efforts [2]. - Continuous progress in flagship store reforms and a comprehensive promotional strategy are anticipated to mitigate industry downturn pressures [2]. - The traditional electrical connection business shows steady growth, driven by product structure improvements and price increases [3][10]. - The new energy charging segment is projected to experience rapid growth in the coming years, with revenues increasing by 120% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [3]. - The company's internationalization strategy is expected to become a long-term growth driver, particularly in Southeast Asia and developed markets [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 15,695 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.5% [4]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 3,870 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [4]. - Earnings per share for 2023 is expected to be 4.36 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 26 [4][10]. - The company anticipates continued profit margin improvement in the second half of 2024, supported by raw material hedging and price adjustments [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in lens manufacturing, focusing on core business for steady growth. It has shifted from overseas OEM to developing its own brand and domestic market, enhancing its growth momentum. The product structure is evolving towards high-margin products, which is driving continuous improvement in profitability [4][6]. - The lens industry is experiencing stable global demand growth, with significant potential in China. New opportunities are emerging in myopia prevention and smart glasses [4][6]. - The company achieved revenue of 1.775 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 15.6% from 2018 to 2023, and a net profit of 327 million yuan, with a CAGR of 33.0% during the same period. In the first half of 2024, revenue reached 987 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and net profit was 209 million yuan, up 31.6% year-on-year [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was established in 1996 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2021. It has transitioned from primarily overseas OEM to focusing on its own brand and domestic market, which has created new growth drivers. The product mix is shifting towards high-margin products, enhancing profitability [4][15]. - The company has a strong manufacturing capability and is gradually increasing its focus on the domestic market and its own brand. In the first half of 2024, the domestic market accounted for 30.9% of revenue, an increase of 16.2 percentage points since 2018 [4][6][19]. 2. Industry Analysis - The global lens market is experiencing stable growth, with traditional lenses seeing significant demand from Europe and the US, while the Chinese market shows great potential. The domestic retail market for eyeglass lenses was valued at 89.06 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.7% from 2018 to 2023, and is expected to grow at 7.9% from 2023 to 2028 [4][6]. - The demand for myopia prevention lenses is driven by the severe myopia problem among youth, with increasing government focus on prevention. The market for defocus lenses has seen rapid growth, with sales expected to continue increasing [4][6][7]. 3. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 418 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 593 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.8%, 19.6%, and 18.5% [4][6]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to PE ratios of 13.4, 11.2, and 9.4 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][6]. 4. Product and Market Strategy - The company has a comprehensive product SKU matrix and is enhancing its product structure. In the first half of 2024, standard lenses accounted for 79.7% of revenue, while customized lenses contributed 19.9% [4][17]. - The company is actively expanding its domestic market presence and brand development, with a significant increase in the proportion of self-owned brands [4][6][19].

Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating, citing its high-margin and high-growth medium borosilicate molded bottles as key drivers for steady performance improvement [5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.75 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.11 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 15.3%, 12.5%, and 10.0% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 975 million, 1.155 billion, and 1.288 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 25.7%, 18.4%, and 11.6% respectively [5] - The company's medium borosilicate molded bottles benefit from policy-driven demand growth and have a favorable industry structure [6][8] Company Overview - The company has a 70% market share in the molded bottle segment and has maintained a 13.0% CAGR in revenue from 2012-2023 [6] - Its product portfolio includes molded bottles, brown bottles, ampoules, tubular bottles, butyl rubber stoppers, and aluminum-plastic cap plastic bottles [6] - Molded bottles contributed 2.264 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a 39.2% gross margin [6] Industry Trends - Medium borosilicate glass has superior properties and is widely used in international markets, while China's penetration rate remains low [6] - Policies such as consistency evaluation and centralized procurement are driving the upgrade to medium borosilicate packaging [6][8] - The aging population and increasing healthcare expenditure are supporting stable demand for pharmaceutical glass [54] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 1.468 billion yuan in 2012 to 4.982 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 11.8% [26] - Net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 120 million yuan in 2012 to 776 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 18.5% [26] - The company's ROE has shown three distinct phases: pressure from antibiotic restrictions (2011-2014), recovery (2015-2020), and recent cost pressures (2021-2023) [29][31] Capacity Expansion - The company raised 1.866 billion yuan in 2022 to fund projects including a first-class water-resistant glass bottle project and a pre-filled syringe expansion project [56] - The first-class water-resistant glass bottle project is expected to generate a post-tax IRR of 49.35% and a payback period of 5.26 years [56] - One furnace for medium borosilicate molded bottles was put into operation in November 2023, with more capacity coming online [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology [5] Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou is committed to investing in AI large models to reshape its platform ecosystem, with its self-developed video generation model, Keling AI, having served over 2.6 million users and generated 53 million images and 27 million videos [5] - The company is leveraging its content ecosystem advantages, with AI technology expected to enhance commercial efficiency, particularly in e-commerce conversion rates [5] - Kuaishou's local life services are experiencing rapid growth, with a 37% increase in daily payment users and nearly tripling GMV year-on-year [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are adjusted to 127.3 billion, 142.3 billion, and 157.7 billion RMB for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [6][8] - Adjusted net profit expectations are revised to 17.4 billion, 26.2 billion, and 32.4 billion RMB for the same years [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth in traffic and commercial performance, with a narrowing of overseas losses anticipated [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the 6G and satellite internet industry, highlighting the significant commercial potential of Direct-to-Smartphone (DS) satellite connectivity [2] Core Viewpoints - Direct-to-Smartphone (DS) satellite connectivity is identified as one of the largest opportunities in satellite communication history, with both short-term and long-term applications [2] - Three main approaches to DS satellite connectivity are identified: customized smartphone connectivity, existing smartphone connectivity, and NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) smartphone connectivity [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of satellite operators, key satellite components, and ground terminal manufacturers in the DS satellite ecosystem [4] Detailed Summary by Sections Introduction: Why Direct-to-Smartphone Satellite Connectivity Matters - DS satellite connectivity is crucial for emergency communication in the short term and for ubiquitous connectivity in the 6G era in the long term [12] - The market for DS satellite connectivity is expected to accumulate to $66.8 billion over the next decade, with user numbers projected to reach nearly 400 million by 2030 [12] Practical Perspectives: Three Approaches to DS Satellite Connectivity - **Customized Smartphone Connectivity**: Requires collaboration between satellite operators, smartphone manufacturers, and chipmakers, with Huawei leading in this area [3][20] - **Existing Smartphone Connectivity**: Led by emerging low-orbit satellite companies like SpaceX, which has already launched satellites supporting DS connectivity [3][27] - **NTN Smartphone Connectivity**: Based on 3GPP standards, this approach is still in the testing phase but is expected to become the dominant long-term solution [3][18] Technical Challenges and Capacity Calculations - Antenna gain is a critical factor in satellite signal transmission, with higher gain improving communication distance and reliability but also increasing complexity and cost [6] - Huawei's capacity density evaluation shows that frequency and antenna size significantly impact capacity density, with larger antennas and controlled frequencies improving performance [6] Key Industry Players - **Satellite Operators**: Major players include China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, China Satcom, and Shanghai Yuanxin [4] - **Key Satellite Components**: Companies like Shanghai Hanxun, CETC Mobile, and Qianzhao Optoelectronics are crucial for communication payloads and solar panels [4] - **Ground Terminal Manufacturers**: Key players include Haige Communications, Huaruitong, and Mengsheng Electronics [4] Market Potential and Revenue Projections - The DS satellite market is projected to reach 141.1 billion RMB by 2035, driven by low ARPU (around 200 RMB per user annually) and massive user numbers [31] - SpaceX's Starlink DS business is expected to generate significant revenue, with projections showing a potential market space of 141.1 billion RMB by 2035 [31][32] Technological Evolution and Future Directions - The report predicts that the three DS connectivity approaches will coexist in the near future, but the industry will likely converge on the NTN standard in the long term [42] - Key technologies to be addressed include shared frequency usage, high-gain satellite antennas, and high-performance satellite base stations [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected net profit of 6.181 billion, 7.578 billion, and 8.341 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned from a "me-too" model to a "first-in-class" and "best-in-class" innovation strategy, focusing on high-quality, differentiated products [14][18]. - The company has experienced a significant recovery in its innovative drug segment, achieving a growth rate of 33% in the first half of 2024, driven by new product approvals and a more stable pricing environment in the healthcare negotiations [21][25]. - The company has established a robust pipeline of BD (business development) collaborations, with total upfront and milestone payments reaching approximately 10 billion USD since 2023, indicating strong potential for future revenue growth [4][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Drug Recovery and BD Contributions - The company has over 10 billion in generics affected by centralized procurement, but has quickly recovered by focusing on high-difficulty generics and improved new drugs [4][19]. - The innovative drug segment faced pressure in 2021 and 2022 but has rebounded with a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2023, primarily due to new product launches [21][25]. - The BD collaborations have exploded in growth, with significant deals contributing to the company's revenue, including a 1.6 billion Euro deal confirmed in 2024 [25]. 2. Platform-Driven Innovation Upgrades - The company is actively optimizing its pipeline by eliminating low-competitiveness products and focusing on high-quality, differentiated offerings [4][14]. - The establishment of advanced technology platforms such as PROTAC and ADC has positioned the company for future innovation and internationalization [4][14]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 6.181 billion, 7.578 billion, and 8.341 billion, respectively [5][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 48X for 2024, which is significantly lower than the average PE of comparable companies at 61X, indicating a potential upside of 28% [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of 6.2 billion yuan, indicating a 29% upside potential from the current market value [4][6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated independent growth resilience, achieving 16 consecutive quarters of year-on-year revenue growth since Q3 2020, with a CAGR of 14% for revenue and 16% for net profit from 2021 to 2023 [4] - The wool and cashmere sectors are expected to drive growth, with wool production capacity doubling and cashmere production reaching full capacity, potentially accelerating the company's growth trajectory [4][6] - The global wool spinning industry has undergone significant consolidation, with the company leading in both domestic and international markets, holding a 13.9% market share domestically and 3.5% internationally in the combed wool yarn segment [4][6] Industry Analysis - The wool spinning industry has seen a significant reduction in competitors, with the number of large-scale wool textile enterprises in China decreasing by 42% from 2010 to 2021, and the loss-making rate remaining high at 25% in 2022-2023 [6][42] - The global cashmere yarn market is estimated to exceed 20,000 tons, with the company holding a 14.9% market share domestically and 4.6% internationally in the carded cashmere yarn segment [6][52] Company Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its wool spinning capacity, with new production bases in Vietnam and Ningxia, leveraging cost advantages and tariff benefits to enhance competitiveness [6][54][57] - The cashmere business is expected to transition from revenue growth to profit growth, with the Ningxia New Cashmere facility nearing full production capacity, which could significantly improve profitability [6][58] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 450 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 590 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11x, 9x, and 8x [4][6] - The company's gross margin for wool spinning is expected to reach a historical high of 27.1% in 2024, driven by increased production efficiency and cost optimization [26][57]

行 业 及 产 业 汽车/ - 证 券 研 究 报 告 摩托车及其他 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张文静 A0230122100001 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 张文静 (8621)23297818× zhangwj@swsresearch.com 2024 年 09 月 26 日 越南两轮车展会开启，品牌出海正 当时 看好 ——电动两轮车行业点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 9 月 26 日第九届越南国际两轮车展览会开启，东南亚电动两轮车市场持续发酵。9 月 26 日第九届越南国际两轮车展览会（Vietnam Cycle 2024）在胡志明市开启，持续 3 天；设置 400 +展位，全球参展企业 300+家，彰显东南亚两轮车市场热度。 ⚫ 东南亚油摩保有量高，各国相继推行油改电，电动两轮车潜在空间大，是国内电动两轮 车品牌出海的主力市场。根据东盟统计局数据，2022 年印尼/越南/菲律宾/泰国/马来西 亚的摩托车保有量分别为 1.07/0.72/0.08/0.22/0. ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights that the silicon photonics (SiPh) technology path and industry trends are clear, positioning it as a high-growth area in the communications sector [2] - The silicon photonics industry chain is expected to benefit significantly, driven by downstream AI and network demand, with the "breakout moment" for the SiPh industry chain already underway [2] Core Viewpoints - Silicon photonics is expected to play a crucial role in AI chip design, interconnectivity, and the formation of intelligent computing clusters due to its compatibility, integration, and performance advantages [3] - The industry's inflection point has arrived due to the demand for technological iteration from AI and 5G/6G evolution, which traditional optical communication networks cannot meet [3] - Silicon photonics will reshape the value distribution of the optical communication industry chain, with trends towards vertical integration and chip design and foundry separation [3] Industry Development and Technology Paths - The growth of the optical module industry is driven by rate improvement, with three main technical paths: increasing the number of channels, upgrading modulation technology, and enhancing the speed of optoelectronic chips [9][10][11] - Traditional optical chips are primarily guided by III-V semiconductors, with materials like GaAs and InP dominating the market [12] - Silicon photonics is expected to accelerate its penetration, especially in high-speed scenarios like 800G and beyond, due to its integration and performance advantages [7][18] Silicon Photonics' Impact on the Industry Chain - Silicon photonics will change the division of labor and value distribution in the optical communication industry chain, with a trend towards chip design and foundry separation [36] - Key players like Intel, Nvidia, and Broadcom are advancing silicon photonics integration, with Nvidia focusing on optical interconnects for GPU clusters and Broadcom developing CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) solutions [38][39][46] - Domestic companies like InnoLight and Accelink are also making significant strides in silicon photonics, with InnoLight already shipping 400G/800G SiPh modules and Accelink achieving breakthroughs in 1.6T SiPh modules [50][51] Key Companies in the Silicon Photonics Industry Chain - **Optical Module Companies**: InnoLight, Eoptolink, TFC Optical, HG Tech, and Accelink [4] - **Silicon Photonics Chip/Light Source/Material Companies**: Yuanjie Technology, Changguang Huaxin, Shijia Photon, and Guoke Optoelectronics [4] - **Silicon Photonics Equipment Companies**: Robotec (ficonTEC) [5] Market Growth and Forecast - The silicon photonics module market share is expected to grow from 24% in 2022 to 44% by 2028, with the silicon photonics chip market reaching $3 billion by 2029 [53] - The global optical module market is projected to grow rapidly from 2024, driven by the demand for high-speed optical modules like 400G and 800G [30]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-bank financial industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Long-term Capital into the Market," which outlines three core measures to encourage long-term investment in the capital market [2]. - The main objectives of the opinions include significantly increasing the scale and proportion of long-term capital investment, improving the structure of capital market investors, and enhancing the stability of investment behaviors [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting the development of public equity funds and private securities investment funds to foster a healthier capital market ecosystem [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent policy initiatives aimed at boosting the capital market, particularly focusing on long-term investments [2]. - It notes that the regulatory environment is evolving with new policies being introduced to facilitate mergers and acquisitions and improve market value management [2]. Investment Analysis - The report expresses optimism regarding the insurance sector, anticipating positive impacts from upcoming supportive policies and better-than-expected quarterly results [2]. - It recommends specific companies within the insurance sector, including New China Life, China Life, Ping An, and Sunshine Insurance, based on their potential for valuation growth [2]. - For brokerage firms, the report suggests focusing on leading firms with improved risk control metrics and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key brokerage firms, detailing metrics such as closing price, price-to-book ratio (PB), and projected return on equity (ROE) for 2024 [3][4]. - Notable firms include CITIC Securities with a closing price of 22.48 RMB and a projected ROE of 7.4%, and Guotai Junan with a closing price of 14.70 RMB and a projected ROE of 5.6% [3].