Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Focus Media (002027) [5][6] Core Views - The report highlights the dual support of strong fundamentals and high dividend yield for Focus Media [5][6] - The company's valuation is supported by its historical high dividend payout ratio, with a commitment to distribute at least 80% of non-GAAP net profit as dividends from 2024 to 2026 [6] - Focus Media is expected to benefit from potential improvements in consumer demand, which could lead to increased advertising budgets [5] - The company's international client advertising revenue grew by 20% YoY in H1 2024, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [5] Financial Performance - Focus Media's revenue for H1 2024 was 5,967 million yuan, with a YoY growth of 8.2% [7] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 2,493 million yuan, with a YoY growth of 11.7% [7] - The report forecasts revenue of 12,669 million yuan, 13,563 million yuan, and 14,651 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 5,339 million yuan, 5,872 million yuan, and 6,479 million yuan respectively [6][7] Industry and Market Context - The advertising market saw a 2.8% YoY increase in spending from January to July 2024, with 75% of advertisers indicating no increase in advertising budgets [5] - Focus Media's elevator media segment, particularly in the consumer goods sector, showed strong resilience with a 12% YoY growth in advertising spending [5] - The cosmetics category saw a significant 66% growth in H1 2024, driven by both domestic and international brands [5] Valuation and Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 17x, 15x, and 14x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - Focus Media's ROE is expected to be 28.6%, 29.7%, and 30.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] - The company's dividend yield is 6.86%, based on the most recent dividend payout [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9][7]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading comprehensive environmental operator in Jiangxi, benefiting from multiple injections of quality assets from its parent group, which has led to stable revenue growth and high dividends [16][19][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 11.41 billion yuan in 2024, with a corresponding PE ratio of 10, and a target market value of 148 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price [5][9][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has grown into a leading comprehensive environmental operator in Jiangxi, with significant market shares in water supply, sewage treatment, and gas supply [16][19]. - The company has a strong regional competitive advantage, with over 80% market share in sewage treatment and over 90% in gas supply in Nanchang [16][19]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company reported total revenue of 8,048 million yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 8,122 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1,141 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.4% [4]. Water Supply Segment - The company has a water supply capacity of 194 million cubic meters per day, contributing 17% to the company's gross profit in 2023 [6]. - There is potential for revenue doubling through the expansion of direct drinking water services, targeting a capacity of 400 tons per day by 2024 [6]. Sewage Treatment Segment - The company holds over 80% market share in sewage treatment in Jiangxi, with significant room for growth due to ongoing infrastructure improvements [5][6]. - The company has invested 4.15 billion yuan in integrated plant and network projects, which are expected to enhance operational profits [5]. Gas Supply Segment - The company is the largest gas operator in Nanchang, with a market share exceeding 90%, benefiting from a stable pricing mechanism [6][5]. - The gas supply segment is expected to maintain stable profitability due to the improvement in pricing mechanisms [6]. Waste Management Segment - The company has expanded its operations into waste management through acquisitions, including the largest waste incineration project in Nanchang [7]. - The company aims to further enhance its waste management capabilities through additional acquisitions [7]. Investment Analysis - The company is projected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% from 2024 to 2026, with an expected dividend yield of 4.9% in 2024 [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's stable cash flow and commitment to high dividends, which are expected to continue [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% in the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's home decoration festival, running from September 15 to October 20, is expected to boost performance in the decoration channel, with significant promotional efforts [2]. - Continuous progress in flagship store reforms and a comprehensive promotional strategy are anticipated to mitigate industry downturn pressures [2]. - The traditional electrical connection business shows steady growth, driven by product structure improvements and price increases [3][10]. - The new energy charging segment is projected to experience rapid growth in the coming years, with revenues increasing by 120% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [3]. - The company's internationalization strategy is expected to become a long-term growth driver, particularly in Southeast Asia and developed markets [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 15,695 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.5% [4]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 3,870 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [4]. - Earnings per share for 2023 is expected to be 4.36 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 26 [4][10]. - The company anticipates continued profit margin improvement in the second half of 2024, supported by raw material hedging and price adjustments [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in lens manufacturing, focusing on core business for steady growth. It has shifted from overseas OEM to developing its own brand and domestic market, enhancing its growth momentum. The product structure is evolving towards high-margin products, which is driving continuous improvement in profitability [4][6]. - The lens industry is experiencing stable global demand growth, with significant potential in China. New opportunities are emerging in myopia prevention and smart glasses [4][6]. - The company achieved revenue of 1.775 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 15.6% from 2018 to 2023, and a net profit of 327 million yuan, with a CAGR of 33.0% during the same period. In the first half of 2024, revenue reached 987 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and net profit was 209 million yuan, up 31.6% year-on-year [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was established in 1996 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2021. It has transitioned from primarily overseas OEM to focusing on its own brand and domestic market, which has created new growth drivers. The product mix is shifting towards high-margin products, enhancing profitability [4][15]. - The company has a strong manufacturing capability and is gradually increasing its focus on the domestic market and its own brand. In the first half of 2024, the domestic market accounted for 30.9% of revenue, an increase of 16.2 percentage points since 2018 [4][6][19]. 2. Industry Analysis - The global lens market is experiencing stable growth, with traditional lenses seeing significant demand from Europe and the US, while the Chinese market shows great potential. The domestic retail market for eyeglass lenses was valued at 89.06 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.7% from 2018 to 2023, and is expected to grow at 7.9% from 2023 to 2028 [4][6]. - The demand for myopia prevention lenses is driven by the severe myopia problem among youth, with increasing government focus on prevention. The market for defocus lenses has seen rapid growth, with sales expected to continue increasing [4][6][7]. 3. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 418 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 593 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.8%, 19.6%, and 18.5% [4][6]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to PE ratios of 13.4, 11.2, and 9.4 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][6]. 4. Product and Market Strategy - The company has a comprehensive product SKU matrix and is enhancing its product structure. In the first half of 2024, standard lenses accounted for 79.7% of revenue, while customized lenses contributed 19.9% [4][17]. - The company is actively expanding its domestic market presence and brand development, with a significant increase in the proportion of self-owned brands [4][6][19].

Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating, citing its high-margin and high-growth medium borosilicate molded bottles as key drivers for steady performance improvement [5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.75 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.11 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 15.3%, 12.5%, and 10.0% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 975 million, 1.155 billion, and 1.288 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 25.7%, 18.4%, and 11.6% respectively [5] - The company's medium borosilicate molded bottles benefit from policy-driven demand growth and have a favorable industry structure [6][8] Company Overview - The company has a 70% market share in the molded bottle segment and has maintained a 13.0% CAGR in revenue from 2012-2023 [6] - Its product portfolio includes molded bottles, brown bottles, ampoules, tubular bottles, butyl rubber stoppers, and aluminum-plastic cap plastic bottles [6] - Molded bottles contributed 2.264 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a 39.2% gross margin [6] Industry Trends - Medium borosilicate glass has superior properties and is widely used in international markets, while China's penetration rate remains low [6] - Policies such as consistency evaluation and centralized procurement are driving the upgrade to medium borosilicate packaging [6][8] - The aging population and increasing healthcare expenditure are supporting stable demand for pharmaceutical glass [54] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from 1.468 billion yuan in 2012 to 4.982 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 11.8% [26] - Net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 120 million yuan in 2012 to 776 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 18.5% [26] - The company's ROE has shown three distinct phases: pressure from antibiotic restrictions (2011-2014), recovery (2015-2020), and recent cost pressures (2021-2023) [29][31] Capacity Expansion - The company raised 1.866 billion yuan in 2022 to fund projects including a first-class water-resistant glass bottle project and a pre-filled syringe expansion project [56] - The first-class water-resistant glass bottle project is expected to generate a post-tax IRR of 49.35% and a payback period of 5.26 years [56] - One furnace for medium borosilicate molded bottles was put into operation in November 2023, with more capacity coming online [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology [5] Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou is committed to investing in AI large models to reshape its platform ecosystem, with its self-developed video generation model, Keling AI, having served over 2.6 million users and generated 53 million images and 27 million videos [5] - The company is leveraging its content ecosystem advantages, with AI technology expected to enhance commercial efficiency, particularly in e-commerce conversion rates [5] - Kuaishou's local life services are experiencing rapid growth, with a 37% increase in daily payment users and nearly tripling GMV year-on-year [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are adjusted to 127.3 billion, 142.3 billion, and 157.7 billion RMB for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [6][8] - Adjusted net profit expectations are revised to 17.4 billion, 26.2 billion, and 32.4 billion RMB for the same years [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth in traffic and commercial performance, with a narrowing of overseas losses anticipated [6]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the 6G and satellite internet industry, highlighting the significant commercial potential of Direct-to-Smartphone (DS) satellite connectivity [2] Core Viewpoints - Direct-to-Smartphone (DS) satellite connectivity is identified as one of the largest opportunities in satellite communication history, with both short-term and long-term applications [2] - Three main approaches to DS satellite connectivity are identified: customized smartphone connectivity, existing smartphone connectivity, and NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) smartphone connectivity [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of satellite operators, key satellite components, and ground terminal manufacturers in the DS satellite ecosystem [4] Detailed Summary by Sections Introduction: Why Direct-to-Smartphone Satellite Connectivity Matters - DS satellite connectivity is crucial for emergency communication in the short term and for ubiquitous connectivity in the 6G era in the long term [12] - The market for DS satellite connectivity is expected to accumulate to $66.8 billion over the next decade, with user numbers projected to reach nearly 400 million by 2030 [12] Practical Perspectives: Three Approaches to DS Satellite Connectivity - **Customized Smartphone Connectivity**: Requires collaboration between satellite operators, smartphone manufacturers, and chipmakers, with Huawei leading in this area [3][20] - **Existing Smartphone Connectivity**: Led by emerging low-orbit satellite companies like SpaceX, which has already launched satellites supporting DS connectivity [3][27] - **NTN Smartphone Connectivity**: Based on 3GPP standards, this approach is still in the testing phase but is expected to become the dominant long-term solution [3][18] Technical Challenges and Capacity Calculations - Antenna gain is a critical factor in satellite signal transmission, with higher gain improving communication distance and reliability but also increasing complexity and cost [6] - Huawei's capacity density evaluation shows that frequency and antenna size significantly impact capacity density, with larger antennas and controlled frequencies improving performance [6] Key Industry Players - **Satellite Operators**: Major players include China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, China Satcom, and Shanghai Yuanxin [4] - **Key Satellite Components**: Companies like Shanghai Hanxun, CETC Mobile, and Qianzhao Optoelectronics are crucial for communication payloads and solar panels [4] - **Ground Terminal Manufacturers**: Key players include Haige Communications, Huaruitong, and Mengsheng Electronics [4] Market Potential and Revenue Projections - The DS satellite market is projected to reach 141.1 billion RMB by 2035, driven by low ARPU (around 200 RMB per user annually) and massive user numbers [31] - SpaceX's Starlink DS business is expected to generate significant revenue, with projections showing a potential market space of 141.1 billion RMB by 2035 [31][32] Technological Evolution and Future Directions - The report predicts that the three DS connectivity approaches will coexist in the near future, but the industry will likely converge on the NTN standard in the long term [42] - Key technologies to be addressed include shared frequency usage, high-gain satellite antennas, and high-performance satellite base stations [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected net profit of 6.181 billion, 7.578 billion, and 8.341 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned from a "me-too" model to a "first-in-class" and "best-in-class" innovation strategy, focusing on high-quality, differentiated products [14][18]. - The company has experienced a significant recovery in its innovative drug segment, achieving a growth rate of 33% in the first half of 2024, driven by new product approvals and a more stable pricing environment in the healthcare negotiations [21][25]. - The company has established a robust pipeline of BD (business development) collaborations, with total upfront and milestone payments reaching approximately 10 billion USD since 2023, indicating strong potential for future revenue growth [4][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Drug Recovery and BD Contributions - The company has over 10 billion in generics affected by centralized procurement, but has quickly recovered by focusing on high-difficulty generics and improved new drugs [4][19]. - The innovative drug segment faced pressure in 2021 and 2022 but has rebounded with a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2023, primarily due to new product launches [21][25]. - The BD collaborations have exploded in growth, with significant deals contributing to the company's revenue, including a 1.6 billion Euro deal confirmed in 2024 [25]. 2. Platform-Driven Innovation Upgrades - The company is actively optimizing its pipeline by eliminating low-competitiveness products and focusing on high-quality, differentiated offerings [4][14]. - The establishment of advanced technology platforms such as PROTAC and ADC has positioned the company for future innovation and internationalization [4][14]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 6.181 billion, 7.578 billion, and 8.341 billion, respectively [5][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 48X for 2024, which is significantly lower than the average PE of comparable companies at 61X, indicating a potential upside of 28% [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of 6.2 billion yuan, indicating a 29% upside potential from the current market value [4][6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated independent growth resilience, achieving 16 consecutive quarters of year-on-year revenue growth since Q3 2020, with a CAGR of 14% for revenue and 16% for net profit from 2021 to 2023 [4] - The wool and cashmere sectors are expected to drive growth, with wool production capacity doubling and cashmere production reaching full capacity, potentially accelerating the company's growth trajectory [4][6] - The global wool spinning industry has undergone significant consolidation, with the company leading in both domestic and international markets, holding a 13.9% market share domestically and 3.5% internationally in the combed wool yarn segment [4][6] Industry Analysis - The wool spinning industry has seen a significant reduction in competitors, with the number of large-scale wool textile enterprises in China decreasing by 42% from 2010 to 2021, and the loss-making rate remaining high at 25% in 2022-2023 [6][42] - The global cashmere yarn market is estimated to exceed 20,000 tons, with the company holding a 14.9% market share domestically and 4.6% internationally in the carded cashmere yarn segment [6][52] Company Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its wool spinning capacity, with new production bases in Vietnam and Ningxia, leveraging cost advantages and tariff benefits to enhance competitiveness [6][54][57] - The cashmere business is expected to transition from revenue growth to profit growth, with the Ningxia New Cashmere facility nearing full production capacity, which could significantly improve profitability [6][58] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 450 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 590 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11x, 9x, and 8x [4][6] - The company's gross margin for wool spinning is expected to reach a historical high of 27.1% in 2024, driven by increased production efficiency and cost optimization [26][57]

行 业 及 产 业 汽车/ - 证 券 研 究 报 告 摩托车及其他 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张文静 A0230122100001 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 张文静 (8621)23297818× zhangwj@swsresearch.com 2024 年 09 月 26 日 越南两轮车展会开启，品牌出海正 当时 看好 ——电动两轮车行业点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 9 月 26 日第九届越南国际两轮车展览会开启，东南亚电动两轮车市场持续发酵。9 月 26 日第九届越南国际两轮车展览会（Vietnam Cycle 2024）在胡志明市开启，持续 3 天；设置 400 +展位，全球参展企业 300+家，彰显东南亚两轮车市场热度。 ⚫ 东南亚油摩保有量高，各国相继推行油改电，电动两轮车潜在空间大，是国内电动两轮 车品牌出海的主力市场。根据东盟统计局数据，2022 年印尼/越南/菲律宾/泰国/马来西 亚的摩托车保有量分别为 1.07/0.72/0.08/0.22/0. ...