Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price adjusted to $188, indicating a potential upside of 50.9% from the current price of $124.62 [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a 10 billion RMB subsidy policy aimed at supporting merchants, which is expected to stabilize profit growth. The forecast for Q3 indicates a net profit of approximately 30.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 80% [1]. - The report anticipates that both GMV and company profits will continue to grow at double-digit rates through 2025, despite a downward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts for Q3 due to the subsidy policy [1][4]. - The financial projections for 2024 and 2025 show an expected adjusted net profit growth of 93% and 29%, respectively, with a focus on maintaining a stable monetization rate despite the subsidy initiatives [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 404.273 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.1% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be 538.332 billion RMB, down 3.8% [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 130.869 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.7% reduction from prior estimates, with a further increase to 168.736 billion RMB in 2025 [3][7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 64.3% in 2024, slightly down from previous estimates, while the adjusted operating profit margin is projected at 32.1% [3][7]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 14.82%, with a 52-week high of $157.57 and a low of $89.17 [2][4]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 11.90 million shares, indicating active market participation [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The report details several strategic initiatives under the subsidy policy, including reductions in service fees and promotional costs, aimed at enhancing merchant profitability and competitiveness [1][4]. - The anticipated performance of TEMU in the U.S. market is expected to reach breakeven by 2025, contributing positively to overall profitability [1].

Economic Growth - China's GDP in Q3 2024 grew by 4.6% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 4.5% and down from 4.7% in Q2[1] - The quarter-on-quarter growth for Q3 was 0.9%, surpassing the previous quarter's 0.5%[2] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Industrial value-added in September increased by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 4.5%[3] - The service sector's value-added grew by 4.7% year-on-year, indicating steady performance[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% year-on-year in September, up from 2.2% in August[5] - Manufacturing investment accelerated to 9.7% year-on-year, driven by strong export demand[5] Consumer Spending - Retail sales in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, improving from 2.1% in August[3] - The growth in retail sales was supported by significant increases in home appliance and communication equipment sales, which rose by 20.5% and 12.3% respectively[3] Financial Indicators - Total social financing in September increased by CNY 37,634 billion, up from CNY 30,323 billion in August[5] - The year-on-year decrease in new loans was CNY 7,200 billion, indicating a need for stronger credit demand[5] Capacity Utilization - The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q3 was 75.1%, a slight increase from 74.9% in Q2 but down from 75.6% a year earlier[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (916 HK) with a target price of HKD 8.35, indicating a potential upside of 32.8% from the current price of HKD 6.29 [11]. Core Views - The report anticipates a weaker net profit for the third quarter, projecting a year-on-year decline of 22% to RMB 4.7 billion, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - There was a significant rebound in wind power generation in September, with a year-on-year increase of 29%, primarily due to improved wind speeds in coastal areas [1]. - The overall power generation for the third quarter is expected to rise by 6% year-on-year, driven by a 42% increase in solar power generation, while thermal power generation is projected to decline by 14% due to project sales [1][2]. - The report highlights that operational improvements and progress in acquisitions are key factors for valuation enhancement, with an upward adjustment of the valuation standard to 10.5 times the 2025 earnings [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the expected revenue is RMB 37.638 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at RMB 6.355 billion, reflecting a 26.4% increase [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 0.65, down 11.8% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery in subsequent years, expecting EPS to rise to RMB 0.97 by 2026 [3][12]. - The report projects a gradual increase in installed capacity, with wind power expected to reach 30,754 MW by 2024 and 41,254 MW by 2026 [7][12]. - The report also notes a decline in the operating profit margin by approximately 6 percentage points due to falling on-grid electricity prices for wind and solar [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD US with a target price raised to $56.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of $44.14 [1][9]. Core Insights - The third quarter performance is expected to meet market expectations, with total revenue projected to increase by 4.9% year-on-year to RMB 259.8 billion, and adjusted net profit expected to rise by 2% to RMB 10.9 billion [1][2]. - The "trade-in" program is anticipated to boost sales in September, leading to a recovery in performance [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved business health, with a projected gross profit margin improvement and continued marketing investments driving double-digit user growth [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue and adjusted net profit are forecasted to grow by 4.6% and 21.8% respectively in 2024, with further growth expected in 2025 at 5.8% and 10% [2][3]. - The report outlines a steady increase in revenue from RMB 1,046.2 billion in 2022 to an estimated RMB 1,269.3 billion by 2026, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 28.2 billion to RMB 51.4 billion in the same period [3][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from RMB 17.73 in 2022 to RMB 35.17 by 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][10]. Market Performance - The report highlights that JD US's stock has shown a significant performance relative to the MSCI China Index, with a potential for further gains as indicated by the revised target price [4][9]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are noted at $47.08 and $21.44 respectively, indicating a strong recovery potential [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the valuation benchmark to 13 times the 2025 earnings, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects and operational efficiency improvements [2][3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.6 in 2022 to 8.9 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [3][10]. Revenue Breakdown - The report anticipates a recovery in self-operated revenue growth, particularly in the electronics and daily necessities categories, driven by the trade-in program and upcoming sales events like Double Eleven [2][5]. - Advertising and commission revenues are expected to recover, with a projected high single-digit growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) [2][5]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow is projected to increase from RMB 57.8 billion in 2022 to RMB 77.4 billion by 2026, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [10]. - The report also highlights a healthy balance sheet with net cash positions expected to remain stable, supporting future growth initiatives [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $25.00, indicating a potential upside of 23.1% from the current price of $20.31 [1][9]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q3 2024 by 1% to RMB 7.3 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 26%, primarily driven by the performance of the game "Three Miao" [1]. - The expected gross margin is projected to increase by 9 and 4 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively, to 34%, due to operational leverage and an increase in the proportion of game and advertising revenues [1]. - The game "Three Miao" is expected to generate over RMB 1.3 billion in revenue for Q3, leading to an upward adjustment of the game revenue forecast to RMB 1.9 billion for Q3 and RMB 5.6 billion for 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 92% and 40%, respectively [1]. - Advertising and VAS revenue are expected to grow by 25% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, supported by improved advertising infrastructure and product iterations [1]. - The report anticipates a long-term profit margin normalization of 10-15% due to the stable performance of "Three Miao" and the launch of new games [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Bilibili are as follows: RMB 22.5 billion in 2023, RMB 26.9 billion in 2024 (19.2% growth), RMB 29.9 billion in 2025 (11.3% growth), and RMB 31.8 billion in 2026 (6.6% growth) [2][10]. - The net profit forecast shows a significant improvement, with expected losses of RMB 3.4 billion in 2023, narrowing to RMB 119 million in 2024, and turning profitable with RMB 1.8 billion in 2025 and RMB 2.8 billion in 2026 [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 283 million in 2024, with a corresponding adjusted net profit margin of 4% [6][10]. Market Performance - Bilibili's stock has shown a significant range over the past 52 weeks, with a high of $29.66 and a low of $8.94, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately $6.55 billion [3][10]. - The stock's year-to-date performance indicates a strong recovery, with a notable increase compared to the MSCI China Index [3][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $113.00, indicating a potential upside of 32.9% from the current price of $85.01 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face challenges in the third quarter of 2024, with a projected revenue decline of 4% year-on-year to 26.3 billion RMB, and an adjusted net profit of 7.4 billion RMB, which is lower than previous expectations [2]. - The gaming segment is anticipated to recover in the fourth quarter, driven by the launch of new games, which could improve mobile game performance [2]. - The valuation remains attractive, with the current price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 12x for 2024 and 11x for 2025, below the industry average [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 96.5 billion RMB in 2022 to 128.4 billion RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.2% [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 22.8 billion RMB in 2022 to 38.3 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 34.60 RMB in 2022 to 59.30 RMB in 2026, with a notable increase in the dividend yield from 1.7% in 2022 to 2.6% in 2026 [3][10]. Market Performance - The company’s market capitalization is approximately $106.1 billion, with a 52-week high of $118.47 and a low of $76.42 [5]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 8.75% [5]. Game Segment Analysis - The PC gaming segment is expected to show positive growth, while mobile gaming is under pressure due to high year-on-year comparisons from the previous year [2]. - New game launches, including "蛋仔滑滑" and "燕云十六声," are anticipated to boost mobile game revenue in the fourth quarter [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 12.0 for 2023, which is lower than the industry average, suggesting potential for price appreciation as new games are released [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Legend Biotech (LEGN US), with a target price of $76, indicating a potential upside of 53% from the current price of $49.68 [4]. Core Insights - The sales of CARVYKTI® (cilta-cel) in Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, recording $286 million, a year-on-year increase of 88% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54%. This performance surpassed market consensus expectations of $241 million and the report's own forecast of $274 million [1]. - The significant growth in sales is attributed to the increasing treatment demand following the approval of early relapsed multiple myeloma indications, improved clinical data driving market share gains, and the gradual release of new production capacity [1]. - The report anticipates that the momentum in sales will continue into Q4 2024, with a projected sales figure of $322 million for that quarter, representing a 13% increase from Q3 2024 [1]. - CARVYKTI® was approved for sale in China in August 2024, which is expected to contribute significantly to future sales growth [1]. - The report maintains its full-year sales forecast for CARVYKTI® at $951 million, with a peak sales expectation exceeding $7 billion [1]. Summary by Sections - **Sales Performance**: Q3 2024 sales of CARVYKTI® reached $286 million, up 88% year-on-year and 54% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased demand and market share gains [1]. - **Production Capacity**: The report notes that production capacity is steadily being released, with Johnson & Johnson confirming the approval of commercial production capacity in Ghent, Belgium [1]. - **Future Outlook**: The report expresses confidence in the continued outperformance of CARVYKTI® sales, supported by strong clinical data and the recent approval in China, projecting a robust long-term market potential [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 228, implying a potential upside of 24.2% from the current price of HKD 183.60 [1][2] Core Views - Meituan's profit growth trend is expected to remain sustainable, leading to an upward revision of 2025 profit forecasts and target price [1] - The company is expected to report a 21% YoY increase in total revenue for Q3 2024, slightly above Bloomberg/Visible Alpha (VA) consensus of 20% [1] - Net profit is projected to surge 98% YoY to RMB 11.4 billion in Q3 2024, with a net margin of 12.3%, outperforming Bloomberg/VA expectations of 106%/109% growth [1] - Local commerce (CLC) is expected to grow 20% YoY, with delivery order volume up 14%, revenue up 18%, and profit up 36% [1] - In-store, hotel, and travel (IHT) business is forecasted to grow 20% in revenue and 32% in profit, with a margin of 35% [1] - New businesses are expected to grow 25% YoY, with quarterly losses narrowing to RMB 1.86 billion [1] Financial Projections - Local commerce revenue is projected to grow 21% in 2024 and 18% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 30% and 27%, respectively [2] - IHT revenue is expected to accelerate, growing 23% in 2024 and 30% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 20% and 33%, respectively [2] - New business losses are expected to narrow further in 2025, following a trend of reduced losses in H2 2024 [2] - Adjusted net profit growth is forecasted at 78% in 2024 and 25% in 2025, with a 2025 PEG ratio of 1x and a P/E of 25x [2] Industry Position - Meituan maintains a leading position in China's instant retail and delivery industry [2] - The company's food delivery business, despite high online penetration, continues to meet diverse user needs through products like "Pinhao Fan" [2] - Flash delivery faces competition but has significant market potential, with scale effects and category diversification being key to monetization [2] - Local life services market competition is largely under control, with emerging industry investments still in early stages [2] Financial Data Highlights - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 276.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 420.2 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 23.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 59.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 3.71 in 2023 to RMB 9.59 in 2026 [3] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 45.1x in 2023 to 17.5x in 2026, reflecting improving profitability [3]

Export Performance - In September, China's exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year in USD terms, down from 8.7% in August and below the expected 6.0%[1] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders fell to 47.5, marking the lowest level since February[2] - Exports of labor-intensive products, such as bags and shoes, saw double-digit declines, while steel exports accelerated from 5.6% to 11.1%[2] Import Trends - Imports in September further slowed to a growth of 0.3%, below the previous month's 0.5% and the expected 0.9%[1] - Energy and raw material imports showed significant declines, with crude oil imports down 11.1% and iron ore imports down 15.3%[4] - Automotive imports, including parts, decreased by 19.1% and 12.4%, respectively[4] Trade Balance - The trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September, lower than the expected $89.8 billion and the previous month's $91.02 billion[1] - The decline in exports and imports reflects short-term disruptions, including extreme weather and labor strikes affecting logistics[1] Future Outlook - Strong stimulus measures are expected to gradually take effect, promoting a rebalancing of domestic and external demand[1] - The recent "924" policy and signals from the central government indicate a commitment to stabilizing the economy, with anticipated fiscal support measures[1]

交银国际研究 行业更新 输入文字 行业评级 领先 2024 年 10 月 15 日 汽车行业 9 月新能源车渗透率 53.3%；以旧换新+新车型发布，看好"银十"表现 9 月乘用车零售销量环比增长 10.6%，自主品牌市场份额进一步提升。随 着政策进一步发力以及地方以旧换新政策陆续出台，整体市场环比继续回 升，9 月全国乘用车市场零售 210.9 万辆（同/环比+4.5%/+10.6%）；1-9 月 累计零售 1557.4 万辆（同比+2.2%）。自主品牌份额继续提升，合资车份 额则下滑。9 月自主品牌零售 134 万辆，同/环比+25%/+11%，9 月自主品 牌全国零售份额同比增加 10.1 个百分点至 63.5%； 1-9 月自主品牌累计份 额 59%，相对去年同期增加 8.1 个百分点。9 月主流合资品牌零售 53 万辆 （ 同 / 环 比 -22%/+10% ） ， 其 中 德 系 / 日 系 / 美 系 零 售 份 额 为 16.5%/12.6%/5.7%（同比-3.6/-4.0/-1.7 个百分点）。 9 月新能源汽车零售渗透率 53.3%，连续第三个月突破 50%。9 月新能源车 零售销量录得 ...