交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 2.04 港元 2.37↓ +16.2% 新能源 2024 年 10 月 21 日 京能清洁能源 (579 HK) 四川水电厂解网影响轻微，预期补偿款明年到位 86 兆瓦水电装机因配合政策需退出运行。公司近期收到四川省芦山县当 地政府通知，为加强位于四川省的大熊猫国家公园的生态环境及景观的保 护，减少国家公园内的电站运营对周边环境的不利影响，公司位于四川省 芦山县的四座水电站（共86.4兆瓦装机）需尽快解网并退出运行。公司预 计 2024 年内的水力发电量减少约 1.1 亿千瓦时，营业收入预计减少约 3 千 万元（人民币，下同），同时预计相关减值金额在 7.5-8.5 亿元。 预期补偿款 2025 年到位。去年公司亦有两个位于四川的水电项目因成都 市小水电清理退出政策而停止运营，相关减值项（商誉、经营权及设备 等）约为2.1亿元，于今年上半年已收到补偿款2.3亿元，应能覆盖减值金 额。我们估计公司在年内核算减值金额后应可与地方政府确认补偿款金 额，并于2025年中收到补偿款，我们相信今次公司能得到合理的补偿款。 2024 年将有一次性减值，2025-26 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price adjusted to $188, indicating a potential upside of 50.9% from the current price of $124.62 [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a 10 billion RMB subsidy policy aimed at supporting merchants, which is expected to stabilize profit growth. The forecast for Q3 indicates a net profit of approximately 30.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 80% [1]. - The report anticipates that both GMV and company profits will continue to grow at double-digit rates through 2025, despite a downward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts for Q3 due to the subsidy policy [1][4]. - The financial projections for 2024 and 2025 show an expected adjusted net profit growth of 93% and 29%, respectively, with a focus on maintaining a stable monetization rate despite the subsidy initiatives [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 404.273 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.1% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be 538.332 billion RMB, down 3.8% [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 130.869 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.7% reduction from prior estimates, with a further increase to 168.736 billion RMB in 2025 [3][7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 64.3% in 2024, slightly down from previous estimates, while the adjusted operating profit margin is projected at 32.1% [3][7]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 14.82%, with a 52-week high of $157.57 and a low of $89.17 [2][4]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 11.90 million shares, indicating active market participation [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The report details several strategic initiatives under the subsidy policy, including reductions in service fees and promotional costs, aimed at enhancing merchant profitability and competitiveness [1][4]. - The anticipated performance of TEMU in the U.S. market is expected to reach breakeven by 2025, contributing positively to overall profitability [1].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------|--------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------| | | 宏观策略 | 交银国际研究 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------|--------------|-------|----------|-------------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | 新能源 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | | | | 港元 6.29 | 港元 8.35↑ | | +32.8% | 2024 年 10 月 17 日 | | 龙源电力 | (916 HK) | | | | | | | | | | | | 预期 3 季报纯利偏弱，期待运营改善及收购进展的突破 9 月份风力发电量有较大反弹。公司 9 月份风力发电量扭转近六个月的弱 势，从去年低基数出现较大反弹（同比上升 29%），主要受益于沿海地区 风速回升。3 季度总体发电量同比上升 6%，其中风力发电同比上升 6%， 光伏发电则同比上升 42%，唯火力发电因出售项目影响同比下跌 14%。整 体 1-9 月份，公司仍面临限电上升及年内大部份时间风速同比下降，风电 发电量同比下跌 1.8%，整体发电量微 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------|---------------|----------|-------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 \n公司更新 | | | | | | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2024 年 10 月 15 日 | | | 美元 44.14 | 美元 56.00↑ | +26.9% | | | | | | | | | 京东 (JD US) | | | | | | | | | | | 预计 3 季度业绩符合预期，以旧换新带动 9 月销售数据回暖 3 季度业绩预览：预计 3 季度公司总收入同比增 4.9%至 2598 亿元（人民 币，下同），符合我们和市场的此前预期。预计调整后净利润为 109 亿 元，同比增 2%，市场预期为 113 亿元。预计业务健康度提升，毛利润率 同比改善，营销费用持续投入，带动用户数保持双位数增长。 以旧换新拉动 9 月数据回暖：预计自营收入同比低个位数增长，其中带电 品类较 2 季度增速恢复， ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 20.31 美元 25.00↑ +23.1% 互联网 2024 年 10 月 16 日 哔哩哔哩 (BILI US) 3 季度业绩预览：《三谋》拉动游戏收入加速增长 微幅上调 3 季度收入预期，维持盈利预期。我们小幅上调 2024 年 3 季度收 入 1%至 73 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 26%，主要因《三谋》流水超 预期。我们预计毛利率同/环比升 9/4 个百分点至 34%，因经营杠杆持续释 放以及游戏/广告收入占比提升。我们基本维持3季度盈利预期，预计经调 整净利润 2.8 亿元，对比去年同期/2 季度净亏损 8.8/2.7 亿元。 《三谋》3 季度流水超 13 亿元，小幅上调游戏收入预期。《三谋》9 月新 赛季开启，拉动日流水重回高位，最高登 iOS 游戏畅销榜第 2 名，好于我 们此前预期。考虑流水摊销，我们小幅上调 3 季度/2024 年游戏收入至 19/56 亿元，对应同比增速 92%/40%，高于目前市场预期的 70%/31%。哔 哩代理《咒术回战幻影夜行》年内海外发行（日本市场以外），截至 10 月 16 日预约人数超 515 万， ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 85.01 美元 113.00 +32.9% 互联网 2024 年 10 月 15 日 网易 (NTES US) 3 季度游戏承压，4 季度新游推动手游表现改善 3 季度业绩预览：我们预计 3 季度总收入同比跌 4%至 263 亿元（人民币， 下同），较我们此前预期下调 6%，市场预期为 270 亿元。预计调整后净 利润为74 亿元，较我们此前预期下调7%，市场预期为81 亿元。预计端游 收入同比增速转正，手游受制于去年高基数而下降。 端游恢复同比增长：《梦幻西游》调整结束，环比止跌，同比对端游收入 增长仍有一定影响，但被《魔兽世界》国服回归及《七日世界》上线所抵 消，实现端游总收入同比增长。根据 Steamcharts.com 数据，7-9 月《七日 世界》最高同时在线玩家人数分别为 23 万/19 万/13 万。《永劫无间》手 游上线后端游版本同时在线玩家人数峰值提升明显，7-9月为35-40万，对 比 1-2 季度 30-35 万，以及转免之前的 10-20 万。 手游短期承压：根据第三方数据统计，《逆水寒》、《巅峰急速》、《蛋 仔派对》较上线初期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Legend Biotech (LEGN US), with a target price of $76, indicating a potential upside of 53% from the current price of $49.68 [4]. Core Insights - The sales of CARVYKTI® (cilta-cel) in Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, recording $286 million, a year-on-year increase of 88% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54%. This performance surpassed market consensus expectations of $241 million and the report's own forecast of $274 million [1]. - The significant growth in sales is attributed to the increasing treatment demand following the approval of early relapsed multiple myeloma indications, improved clinical data driving market share gains, and the gradual release of new production capacity [1]. - The report anticipates that the momentum in sales will continue into Q4 2024, with a projected sales figure of $322 million for that quarter, representing a 13% increase from Q3 2024 [1]. - CARVYKTI® was approved for sale in China in August 2024, which is expected to contribute significantly to future sales growth [1]. - The report maintains its full-year sales forecast for CARVYKTI® at $951 million, with a peak sales expectation exceeding $7 billion [1]. Summary by Sections - **Sales Performance**: Q3 2024 sales of CARVYKTI® reached $286 million, up 88% year-on-year and 54% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased demand and market share gains [1]. - **Production Capacity**: The report notes that production capacity is steadily being released, with Johnson & Johnson confirming the approval of commercial production capacity in Ghent, Belgium [1]. - **Future Outlook**: The report expresses confidence in the continued outperformance of CARVYKTI® sales, supported by strong clinical data and the recent approval in China, projecting a robust long-term market potential [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 228, implying a potential upside of 24.2% from the current price of HKD 183.60 [1][2] Core Views - Meituan's profit growth trend is expected to remain sustainable, leading to an upward revision of 2025 profit forecasts and target price [1] - The company is expected to report a 21% YoY increase in total revenue for Q3 2024, slightly above Bloomberg/Visible Alpha (VA) consensus of 20% [1] - Net profit is projected to surge 98% YoY to RMB 11.4 billion in Q3 2024, with a net margin of 12.3%, outperforming Bloomberg/VA expectations of 106%/109% growth [1] - Local commerce (CLC) is expected to grow 20% YoY, with delivery order volume up 14%, revenue up 18%, and profit up 36% [1] - In-store, hotel, and travel (IHT) business is forecasted to grow 20% in revenue and 32% in profit, with a margin of 35% [1] - New businesses are expected to grow 25% YoY, with quarterly losses narrowing to RMB 1.86 billion [1] Financial Projections - Local commerce revenue is projected to grow 21% in 2024 and 18% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 30% and 27%, respectively [2] - IHT revenue is expected to accelerate, growing 23% in 2024 and 30% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 20% and 33%, respectively [2] - New business losses are expected to narrow further in 2025, following a trend of reduced losses in H2 2024 [2] - Adjusted net profit growth is forecasted at 78% in 2024 and 25% in 2025, with a 2025 PEG ratio of 1x and a P/E of 25x [2] Industry Position - Meituan maintains a leading position in China's instant retail and delivery industry [2] - The company's food delivery business, despite high online penetration, continues to meet diverse user needs through products like "Pinhao Fan" [2] - Flash delivery faces competition but has significant market potential, with scale effects and category diversification being key to monetization [2] - Local life services market competition is largely under control, with emerging industry investments still in early stages [2] Financial Data Highlights - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 276.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 420.2 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 23.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 59.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 3.71 in 2023 to RMB 9.59 in 2026 [3] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 45.1x in 2023 to 17.5x in 2026, reflecting improving profitability [3]

| --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 \n宏观策略 | | | | | | | 2024 年 10 月 14 日 | | 中国宏观 | | | | | 短期扰动因素致出口放缓—中国 9 月进出口数据点评 中国 9 月出口回落。以美元计价，9 月出口同比增 2.4%，预期 6.0%，前值 8.7%；9 月进口同比进一步放缓至 0.3%，预期 0.9%，前值 0.5%。9 月贸易顺差 收窄至 817.1 亿美元，预期 898 亿美元，前值 910.2 亿美元。 短期偶发性因素导致 9 月出口降温。9 月出口同比增速降至 2.4%，较此前四个 月7-8%的增速出现回落。其中主要受到了高基数以及短期偶发性因素的影响， 包括中国东部港口城市遭遇极端天气、以及美国港口罢工等事件影响了企业出 货、物流运转，预计积压的订单有望在后续月份滞后反映。因此，出口斜率尚 未出现改变，且在海外进入降息周期后，全球制造业景气度底部回升、外需有 韧性的形势下，预计短期出口仍有支撑。 强刺激措施将逐渐发力显效，推动 ...