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高途:2季度收入超预期,行业需求仍将继续拉动收入增长
交银国际证券· 2024-08-29 02:22
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Gaotu (GOTU US), with a target price of $6.50, indicating a potential upside of 96.4% from the current closing price of $3.31 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a quarterly revenue increase of 44% year-on-year to 1 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 2% and 3% [1]. - Cash collections grew by 87% year-on-year, driven primarily by K12 education services, which accounted for over 85% of total revenue [2]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 50.5-53% for Q3 2024, with revenue expected to be between 1.188 billion and 1.208 billion RMB [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 69%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year due to changes in revenue structure [1][3]. - Adjusted operating loss for Q2 2024 was 450 million RMB, with a loss margin of 45%, aligning with previous expectations [1]. - The company expects to continue incurring operating losses due to increased customer acquisition costs and expansion efforts, projecting an adjusted operating loss of 400 million RMB for Q3 2024 [2]. Revenue Breakdown - K12 revenue grew by over 55% year-on-year, with non-academic subjects experiencing triple-digit growth, contributing over 20% to total revenue [2]. - Adult education revenue increased by over 10% year-on-year, with significant growth in study abroad-related services [2]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been raised by 4% and 14%, respectively, while overall profit expectations have been adjusted downward [2]. - The K12 business is projected to achieve an operating profit margin of approximately 7% in 2024 and 13% in 2025, indicating potential for margin improvement [2]. - The target price has been adjusted to $6.50 from a previous $7.50, reflecting the anticipated continued growth in revenue driven by industry demand [2].
中海物业:毛利率回升,上调中期分红比例;维持买入
交银国际证券· 2024-08-29 02:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its ability to achieve stable growth and improve gross margins despite challenging market conditions [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 9.0% year-on-year to RMB 6.838 billion for the first half of 2024, slightly below market expectations [1][3]. - Three out of four business segments experienced positive year-on-year growth, with property management services showing the fastest revenue growth due to enhanced management scale [1]. - The gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 16.8%, outperforming peers who generally saw declines in the same period [1][3]. - Net profit rose by 16.0% year-on-year to RMB 738 million, aligning closely with market forecasts [1][3]. - The company increased its interim dividend payout ratio to 35%, up from 25% in the previous year, with a dividend of HKD 0.085 per share, representing a 54.5% increase [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 6.838 billion, a 9.0% increase from the previous year [3]. - Property management service revenue grew by 14.2% to RMB 5.166 billion [3]. - Non-residential value-added services revenue decreased by 13.7% to RMB 912 million, while residential value-added services revenue increased by 10.3% to RMB 687 million [3]. - Gross profit increased by 14.2% to RMB 1.148 billion, with a gross margin of 16.8% [3]. Operational Expansion - Managed area increased by 16.4% year-on-year to 422.7 million square meters, with the proportion of non-residential projects rising from 28.2% to 30.1% [1][3]. - The company achieved a target of 1:1 for internal and external growth, with 46.7% of new contracted area coming from external sources [1][3]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The interim dividend payout ratio was raised to 35%, with a dividend of HKD 0.085 per share, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [1][3].
华润电力:上半年火电分部利润超预期,期待新增装机量进度加快
交银国际证券· 2024-08-29 02:19
交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 23.00 | 港元 26.83↓ | +16.7% | 华润电力 (836 HK) 上半年火电分部利润超预期,期待新增装机量进度加快 上半年火电超预期表现,但被新能源偏低的利用率有所抵销。上半年核心 盈利同比上升 23.8%,优于我们预期的 10.7%,主要原因是公司火电分部 利润高于我们预期。期内,公司火电/新能源分部纯利同比+75%/-12%,管 理层解释受到利用小时和电价双降的影响,风/光项目的利用小时在上半 年分别同比下降 9.5%/3.7%,上网电价分别下跌 1.9%/11.8%,造成约 9-10 亿港元的利润影响。火电经营方面,上半年燃料成本同比下降 10.7%,点 火价差同比改善 18%至每度电 0.142 人民币。 有计划以收购完成年内新增装机目标,下调利用小时预期。今年上半年, 公司风电和光伏新增并网装机合计约 0.93 吉瓦,相对我们估计全年目标 8 吉瓦仍有一定距离。管理层补充截至 7 月底, ...
小鹏汽车-W:M03定价极具吸引力,图灵芯片和AI鹰眼视觉方案助力智能化
交银国际证券· 2024-08-29 02:19
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK) with a target price of 39.29 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 35.3% from the closing price of 29.05 HKD as of August 27, 2024 [11]. Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors launched the MONA M03 at an attractive starting price of 119,800 RMB, which is lower than previous expectations and competitive against similar models like the Qin PLUS EV and Model 3 [1][2]. - The company introduced the Turing chip, which has successfully completed its first tape-out, aimed at L4 autonomous driving and applicable across AI vehicles, robots, and flying cars [2]. - The new AI Eagle Eye vision solution enhances real-time perception capabilities significantly, allowing for improved autonomous driving experiences without relying on LiDAR [1][2]. Summary by Sections Product Pricing and Competitiveness - The MONA M03 is available in three versions with prices of 119,800 RMB, 129,800 RMB, and 155,800 RMB, making it highly competitive in the mid-range electric vehicle market [1]. - Compared to competitors, the M03 offers superior performance and driving experience, particularly against the Qin PLUS EV and Model 3 [1]. Technological Advancements - The Turing chip features a 40-core processor and is designed for L4 autonomous driving, capable of running large AI models with parameters up to 30 billion [2]. - The AI Eagle Eye vision system, set to debut with the P7+ model, boasts a 1.25x improvement in perception distance and a 40% increase in recognition speed compared to previous generations [1][2]. Market Outlook - The M03 is positioned to capture market share in the mid to low-end electric vehicle segment, with expectations of becoming a best-selling model and driving sales growth in the latter half of the year and into the next [2].
康诺亚-B:1H24商业化准备工作和管线研发稳步推进,维持买入评级
交银国际证券· 2024-08-29 02:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 康诺亚 (2162 HK) with a target price of HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 105.9% from the current closing price of HKD 32.05 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is steadily advancing its commercialization preparations for CM310 and pipeline research, with sufficient cash reserves to support operations for the next 3-4 years. The target price has been slightly adjusted downwards due to revised sales forecasts for 2025-26, but the "Buy" rating remains intact [1][2]. - In 1H24, the company reported revenues of RMB 0.55 billion, primarily from a collaboration with AstraZeneca related to CMG901. The net loss increased to approximately RMB 3.9 billion, attributed to rising R&D and sales expenses [2][3]. - CM310 has submitted three indications for NDA approval, with expectations for approval for atopic dermatitis by year-end. The company is also focusing on developing additional indications and expanding its clinical pipeline [2][3]. Financial Model Update - Revenue forecasts for 2024E have been reduced to RMB 78 million, reflecting a 27.7% decrease from previous estimates. For 2025E and 2026E, revenue forecasts are RMB 788 million and RMB 1.404 billion, respectively, with slight adjustments of -1.0% and -2.8% [3][9]. - The gross profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 73 million, with a gross margin of 93.2%, which is a decrease of 6.8 percentage points from prior estimates [3][9]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - As of 1H24, the company holds cash reserves of RMB 2.58 billion, which is expected to support operations for the next 3-4 years. The capital expenditure budget for the year is approximately RMB 200 million, mainly for the construction of a new headquarters and the development of drug platforms [2][9]. Clinical Pipeline Development - The company is advancing its clinical pipeline with multiple indications for CM310 and other candidates like CD38 monoclonal antibody CM313 and CM383, which have shown promising preclinical results [2][3].
携程集团-S:内地酒店业务表现好于预期,并将在下半年看到边际改善
交银国际证券· 2024-08-29 02:18
交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 27 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 336.00 港元 509.00 +51.5% 携程集团 (9961 HK) 内地酒店业务表现好于预期,并将在下半年看到边际改善 2024 年 2 季度业绩:收入 128 亿元(人民币,下同),同比增 14%,与我 们/彭博市场预期基本一致,其中住宿+20%/交通+1%/旅游度假+42%/商旅 +8%。调整后净利润同比增 45%至 50 亿元,净利率 39%,对比去年同期 30%,超过我们/彭博市场预期 34%/39%,得益于规模效应、交叉销售优 化、高利润率业务占比提升以及联营公司利润超预期。市场恢复下营销活 动保持投入,调整后营销费用同比增 20%,占收比 22%,同比基本稳定, 与我们预期一致。 2 季度业绩要点:1)中文站点酒店预定同比增 20%,内地间夜量增约 15%,较行业增长高 10 个百分点,持续扩张市占,得益于用户心智及交叉 销售效率提升。内地 ADR 仍承压,但竞争缓和下补贴率下降缓释 ADR 压 力。2)出境机酒预订完全恢复至 2019 年水平,领先整体国际航班 70%+ 的恢复速度。机票价格 ...
妙可蓝多:预计短期內收入仍承压,利润增长或难持续,维持中性
交银国际证券· 2024-08-29 02:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of RMB 13.40, indicating a potential upside of 12.5% from the current price of RMB 11.91 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, and profit growth may not be sustainable. The first half of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 6.9% year-on-year to RMB 1.922 billion, while net profit increased by 71% to RMB 770 million due to lower raw material costs and cost control measures [1][2]. - The cheese business, particularly the ready-to-eat nutrition series, continues to decline, with sales down 6.2% year-on-year. However, the restaurant industrial series showed a growth of 13.8%, partially offsetting the decline [2]. - The company is actively seeking new growth drivers by developing new products and enhancing channel operations, particularly in lower-tier cities and online platforms [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 3.892 billion, a decrease of 3.9% from 2023. Net profit is expected to recover to RMB 135 million in 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 112.1% compared to 2023 [3][6]. - The gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 34.6% in the first half of 2024, driven by cost reductions and efficiency improvements [1][2]. - The company maintains a strong market position with over 35% market share in the cheese market and over 40% in the cheese stick market [2].
信也科技:盈利保持平稳,take rate仍具改善空间
交银国际证券· 2024-08-28 03:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $6.30, indicating a potential upside of 10.5% from the current price of $5.70 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's earnings remain stable, with a projected net profit growth of 2.3% year-on-year for 2024. The take rate is expected to improve in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The company has maintained its full-year guidance, anticipating an acceleration in loan facilitation growth in the second half of the year, with a target growth rate of 5-10% for mainland China and 20-40% for international markets [1][2]. - The take rate for mainland China business is currently at 3.1%, showing a slight increase, primarily due to a decrease in funding costs. The average loan pricing remains stable at 22.2% [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company reported a net profit of 550 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.4%. Net revenue grew by 3.0% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company expects to achieve a net income of 13,019 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [3][9]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 2,394 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2][3]. Loan Facilitation and Market Insights - Loan facilitation in Q2 2024 grew by 3.0% year-on-year, with mainland China and international markets growing by 2.0% and 27.8%, respectively [1][5]. - The company has seen improvements in risk indicators, with a 90-day delinquency rate of 2.65%, which is a slight increase but reflects earlier improvements in risk metrics [1][5]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.5 in 2024, decreasing to 3.7 by 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [3][9]. - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is 4.4%, increasing to 5.3% by 2026, which enhances shareholder returns [3][9].
富途控股:盈利符合我们预期,新增付费客户增长强劲
交银国际证券· 2024-08-28 03:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $90, indicating a potential upside of 50.7% from the current price of $59.71 [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue significantly exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 25.9% in Q2 2024, driven by higher trading volumes and interest income. The net profit for Q2 2024 was HKD 1.209 billion, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The company has shown strong growth in new paying customers, adding 155,000 in Q2 2024, bringing the total to 2.04 million, a 28.8% increase year-on-year. The annual guidance for new paying customers has been raised from 400,000 to 550,000 [1][2]. - The trading commission rate has rebounded, with Q2 trading volume reaching HKD 1.62 trillion, a 69% year-on-year increase. The average commission rate was 8.5 basis points, slightly up from the previous quarter [1][2]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be HKD 11.616 billion, with a net profit of HKD 4.539 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 6% [2][4]. - The average customer acquisition cost in Q2 2024 was HKD 2,182, which, while higher than Q1, remains significantly lower than the average for 2023 [1][2]. - The company's wealth management assets grew by 84% year-on-year, now accounting for 14% of total customer assets, with a penetration rate exceeding 25% [1][2]. Customer and Market Performance - The company reported a total of 2.04 million paying customers as of the end of Q2 2024, with significant contributions from the Malaysian market, despite a slight decline in growth rate [1][2]. - The average assets per customer remained stable at HKD 284, with total customer assets reaching HKD 579.3 billion in Q2 2024 [1][5].
达达:即时配送业务稳健;京东场域渗透为首要战略,短期调整影响持续
交银国际证券· 2024-08-28 03:38
交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 美元 1.32 | 美元 1.50↓ | +13.6% | 达达集团 (DADA US) 即时配送业务稳健;京东场域渗透为首要战略,短期调整影响持续 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 2 季度业绩:收入 23.5 亿元(人民币,下同),同比降 9.5%,其 | | 中达达快送收入增 47%,得益于连锁品牌同城配送单量增加,京东秒送收 | | 入降 44%,由于广告收入下滑及免运门槛降低后履约服务收入下降。调整 | | 后净亏损 1.4 亿元,亏损率 6%,对比彭博市场预期亏损 2 亿元。运营费率 | | 74%,较去年同期 58%上升,因同城配送单量增加导致骑手成本增加;营 | | 销费率 33%,同比降低约 10 个百分点,因京东秒送营销活动减少。 | | --- | |------ ...