交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 美元 3.31 | 美元 6.50↓ | +96.4% | 高途 (GOTU US) 2 季度收入超预期，行业需求仍将继续拉动收入增长 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入同比增 44%至 10 亿元（人民币，下同），高于 我们/彭博市场预期2%/3%。因收入结构变化，毛利率同比下降5个百分点 至 69%。调整后运营亏损 4.5 亿元，亏损率 45%，与我们预期基本一致。 调整后营销费用跟随强劲的收款增长和暑期获客投入同比增 158%，占收 比提升至 37%，行政费用同比增 209%，因低基数以及加速开设校区和拓 展业务导致相关人员薪酬上升，均符合我们此前预期。调整后净亏损 4.2 亿元，对比我们/彭博市场预期的 3.8 亿元亏损。 2 季度业绩要点：1）现金收款同比增 87%，高于我们预期的增速 82%， K12 占比 85%+，实现翻倍增长；2）K12 收入同比增 55%+，其中非学科三 位数增长，贡献总收入 20%+，同比提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its ability to achieve stable growth and improve gross margins despite challenging market conditions [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 9.0% year-on-year to RMB 6.838 billion for the first half of 2024, slightly below market expectations [1][3]. - Three out of four business segments experienced positive year-on-year growth, with property management services showing the fastest revenue growth due to enhanced management scale [1]. - The gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 16.8%, outperforming peers who generally saw declines in the same period [1][3]. - Net profit rose by 16.0% year-on-year to RMB 738 million, aligning closely with market forecasts [1][3]. - The company increased its interim dividend payout ratio to 35%, up from 25% in the previous year, with a dividend of HKD 0.085 per share, representing a 54.5% increase [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 6.838 billion, a 9.0% increase from the previous year [3]. - Property management service revenue grew by 14.2% to RMB 5.166 billion [3]. - Non-residential value-added services revenue decreased by 13.7% to RMB 912 million, while residential value-added services revenue increased by 10.3% to RMB 687 million [3]. - Gross profit increased by 14.2% to RMB 1.148 billion, with a gross margin of 16.8% [3]. Operational Expansion - Managed area increased by 16.4% year-on-year to 422.7 million square meters, with the proportion of non-residential projects rising from 28.2% to 30.1% [1][3]. - The company achieved a target of 1:1 for internal and external growth, with 46.7% of new contracted area coming from external sources [1][3]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The interim dividend payout ratio was raised to 35%, with a dividend of HKD 0.085 per share, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [1][3].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 23.00 | 港元 26.83↓ | +16.7% | 华润电力 (836 HK) 上半年火电分部利润超预期，期待新增装机量进度加快 上半年火电超预期表现，但被新能源偏低的利用率有所抵销。上半年核心 盈利同比上升 23.8%，优于我们预期的 10.7%，主要原因是公司火电分部 利润高于我们预期。期内，公司火电/新能源分部纯利同比+75%/-12%，管 理层解释受到利用小时和电价双降的影响，风/光项目的利用小时在上半 年分别同比下降 9.5%/3.7%，上网电价分别下跌 1.9%/11.8%，造成约 9-10 亿港元的利润影响。火电经营方面，上半年燃料成本同比下降 10.7%，点 火价差同比改善 18%至每度电 0.142 人民币。 有计划以收购完成年内新增装机目标，下调利用小时预期。今年上半年， 公司风电和光伏新增并网装机合计约 0.93 吉瓦，相对我们估计全年目标 8 吉瓦仍有一定距离。管理层补充截至 7 月底， ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 汽车 2024 年 8 月 28 日 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) M03 定价极具吸引力，图灵芯片和 AI 鹰眼视觉方案助力智能化 事件：2024 年 8 月 27 日，公司举行"小鹏 10 年热爱之夜暨小鹏 MONA M03 上 市发布会"。会上公司公布了 MONA M03 售价，以及首款同时用于 AI 汽车/AI 机器人/飞行汽车的图灵芯片。 M03 起售价11.98 万元，定价极具吸引力。会上，公司公布了小鹏MONA M03 售价，MONA M03 共提供三个版本，515 长续航版/620 超长续航版/580 超长 续航 Max 版售价分别为 11.98 万/12.98 万/15.58 万元人民币，其中 M03 Max 版将于 2025 年春节后开启交付。我们在此前报告中预计入门版本的定价有可 能低至 12 万元，昨晚公布的 M03 入门版本价格不仅低于此前预热的 13.59 万 元，甚至低于我们的预计价格 0.02 万元，价格极具吸引力。和竞品比较， M03 相较 10-15 万元价格带的秦 PLUS EV 在性能和智驾体验上均更具优势，相 较 Model 3 则更具价格优势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 康诺亚 (2162 HK) with a target price of HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 105.9% from the current closing price of HKD 32.05 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is steadily advancing its commercialization preparations for CM310 and pipeline research, with sufficient cash reserves to support operations for the next 3-4 years. The target price has been slightly adjusted downwards due to revised sales forecasts for 2025-26, but the "Buy" rating remains intact [1][2]. - In 1H24, the company reported revenues of RMB 0.55 billion, primarily from a collaboration with AstraZeneca related to CMG901. The net loss increased to approximately RMB 3.9 billion, attributed to rising R&D and sales expenses [2][3]. - CM310 has submitted three indications for NDA approval, with expectations for approval for atopic dermatitis by year-end. The company is also focusing on developing additional indications and expanding its clinical pipeline [2][3]. Financial Model Update - Revenue forecasts for 2024E have been reduced to RMB 78 million, reflecting a 27.7% decrease from previous estimates. For 2025E and 2026E, revenue forecasts are RMB 788 million and RMB 1.404 billion, respectively, with slight adjustments of -1.0% and -2.8% [3][9]. - The gross profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 73 million, with a gross margin of 93.2%, which is a decrease of 6.8 percentage points from prior estimates [3][9]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - As of 1H24, the company holds cash reserves of RMB 2.58 billion, which is expected to support operations for the next 3-4 years. The capital expenditure budget for the year is approximately RMB 200 million, mainly for the construction of a new headquarters and the development of drug platforms [2][9]. Clinical Pipeline Development - The company is advancing its clinical pipeline with multiple indications for CM310 and other candidates like CD38 monoclonal antibody CM313 and CM383, which have shown promising preclinical results [2][3].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 27 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 336.00 港元 509.00 +51.5% 携程集团 (9961 HK) 内地酒店业务表现好于预期，并将在下半年看到边际改善 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 128 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 14%，与我 们/彭博市场预期基本一致，其中住宿+20%/交通+1%/旅游度假+42%/商旅 +8%。调整后净利润同比增 45%至 50 亿元，净利率 39%，对比去年同期 30%，超过我们/彭博市场预期 34%/39%，得益于规模效应、交叉销售优 化、高利润率业务占比提升以及联营公司利润超预期。市场恢复下营销活 动保持投入，调整后营销费用同比增 20%，占收比 22%，同比基本稳定， 与我们预期一致。 2 季度业绩要点：1）中文站点酒店预定同比增 20%，内地间夜量增约 15%，较行业增长高 10 个百分点，持续扩张市占，得益于用户心智及交叉 销售效率提升。内地 ADR 仍承压，但竞争缓和下补贴率下降缓释 ADR 压 力。2）出境机酒预订完全恢复至 2019 年水平，领先整体国际航班 70%+ 的恢复速度。机票价格 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of RMB 13.40, indicating a potential upside of 12.5% from the current price of RMB 11.91 [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, and profit growth may not be sustainable. The first half of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 6.9% year-on-year to RMB 1.922 billion, while net profit increased by 71% to RMB 770 million due to lower raw material costs and cost control measures [1][2]. - The cheese business, particularly the ready-to-eat nutrition series, continues to decline, with sales down 6.2% year-on-year. However, the restaurant industrial series showed a growth of 13.8%, partially offsetting the decline [2]. - The company is actively seeking new growth drivers by developing new products and enhancing channel operations, particularly in lower-tier cities and online platforms [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 3.892 billion, a decrease of 3.9% from 2023. Net profit is expected to recover to RMB 135 million in 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 112.1% compared to 2023 [3][6]. - The gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 34.6% in the first half of 2024, driven by cost reductions and efficiency improvements [1][2]. - The company maintains a strong market position with over 35% market share in the cheese market and over 40% in the cheese stick market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $6.30, indicating a potential upside of 10.5% from the current price of $5.70 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's earnings remain stable, with a projected net profit growth of 2.3% year-on-year for 2024. The take rate is expected to improve in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The company has maintained its full-year guidance, anticipating an acceleration in loan facilitation growth in the second half of the year, with a target growth rate of 5-10% for mainland China and 20-40% for international markets [1][2]. - The take rate for mainland China business is currently at 3.1%, showing a slight increase, primarily due to a decrease in funding costs. The average loan pricing remains stable at 22.2% [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company reported a net profit of 550 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.4%. Net revenue grew by 3.0% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company expects to achieve a net income of 13,019 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [3][9]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 2,394 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2][3]. Loan Facilitation and Market Insights - Loan facilitation in Q2 2024 grew by 3.0% year-on-year, with mainland China and international markets growing by 2.0% and 27.8%, respectively [1][5]. - The company has seen improvements in risk indicators, with a 90-day delinquency rate of 2.65%, which is a slight increase but reflects earlier improvements in risk metrics [1][5]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.5 in 2024, decreasing to 3.7 by 2026, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [3][9]. - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is 4.4%, increasing to 5.3% by 2026, which enhances shareholder returns [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $90, indicating a potential upside of 50.7% from the current price of $59.71 [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue significantly exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 25.9% in Q2 2024, driven by higher trading volumes and interest income. The net profit for Q2 2024 was HKD 1.209 billion, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The company has shown strong growth in new paying customers, adding 155,000 in Q2 2024, bringing the total to 2.04 million, a 28.8% increase year-on-year. The annual guidance for new paying customers has been raised from 400,000 to 550,000 [1][2]. - The trading commission rate has rebounded, with Q2 trading volume reaching HKD 1.62 trillion, a 69% year-on-year increase. The average commission rate was 8.5 basis points, slightly up from the previous quarter [1][2]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be HKD 11.616 billion, with a net profit of HKD 4.539 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 6% [2][4]. - The average customer acquisition cost in Q2 2024 was HKD 2,182, which, while higher than Q1, remains significantly lower than the average for 2023 [1][2]. - The company's wealth management assets grew by 84% year-on-year, now accounting for 14% of total customer assets, with a penetration rate exceeding 25% [1][2]. Customer and Market Performance - The company reported a total of 2.04 million paying customers as of the end of Q2 2024, with significant contributions from the Malaysian market, despite a slight decline in growth rate [1][2]. - The average assets per customer remained stable at HKD 284, with total customer assets reaching HKD 579.3 billion in Q2 2024 [1][5].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 美元 1.32 | 美元 1.50↓ | +13.6% | 达达集团 (DADA US) 即时配送业务稳健；京东场域渗透为首要战略，短期调整影响持续 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 23.5 亿元（人民币，下同），同比降 9.5%，其 | | 中达达快送收入增 47%，得益于连锁品牌同城配送单量增加，京东秒送收 | | 入降 44%，由于广告收入下滑及免运门槛降低后履约服务收入下降。调整 | | 后净亏损 1.4 亿元，亏损率 6%，对比彭博市场预期亏损 2 亿元。运营费率 | | 74%，较去年同期 58%上升，因同城配送单量增加导致骑手成本增加；营 | | 销费率 33%，同比降低约 10 个百分点，因京东秒送营销活动减少。 | | --- | |------ ...