交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 美元 155.28 | 美元 200.00 | +28.8% | 超微半导体 (AMD US) 收购服务器公司 ZT Systems，增强 AI 服务器系统集成能力 收购服务器公司 ZT Systems：AMD 宣布通过 75%现金加 25%公司普通股， 作价 49 亿美元，收购总部在美国新泽西的服务器公司 ZT Systems。ZT Systems 之前为 AMD 的合作伙伴之一，主营数据中心服务器的设计、维护 和制造，过去一年收入 100 亿美元，在美国和欧洲有 2500 人的工程师团 队。公司称将保留其中 1000 名系统设计工程师，但寻求向产业伙伴出售 ZT Systems 制造部分的业务。我们认为，这或许是公司在美国本土服务器 人才短缺下变相获取人才的一种方法。市场反应正面，AMD股价在8月19 日收盘较上一交易日涨愈 4.5%，相对费城半导体指数涨近 1.9%。 我们的思考：我们认为，AMD 对 ZT Sys ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 美元 12.96 | 美元 19.00↓ | +46.6% | 哔哩哔哩 (BILI US) 新游拉动游戏收入加速增长，3 季度运营层面有望实现盈利 2 季度亏损收窄好于预期。哔哩哔哩 2024 年 2 季度收入为 61 亿元人民币 （下同），同/环比增16%/8%，基本符合预期。调整后净亏损为2.7亿元， 同/环比收窄 72%/38%，好于我们预期的 3.3 亿元亏损，主要受益于收入结 构改善带动毛利率提升（同/环比+6.8/1.6 个百分点）以及运营费用率优化 （同环比收窄 7.8/3.3 个百分点）。 广告收入维持快于行业增长。2 季度广告收入同比增 30%，仍受益于：1） 流量增长（总时长/日均视频播放量同比+11%/18%）；2）基建及垂直行业 解决方案优化带动广告主数量增长（上半年，效果 KA 广告主数量同比 +50%）及投放效率提升，电商/数码家电投放增量领先。3）交易带动广告 投放，2 季度，观看交易内容的 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 27.55 | 港元 30.53 | +10.8% | 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) 2 季度业绩整体符合预期，M03定价决定下半年销量节奏，维持中性 2024 年 2 季度收入略低于预期，但毛利率和净亏损好于預期。2 季度小鹏 汽车营收 81亿元（人民币，下同），环比上升 23.9%，略低于市场和我们 预期 5%。汽车销量 3 万辆，环比增长 38.4%。大众合作收入持续入账令服 务和其他收入环比增长 28.8%至 12.9 亿元， 服务和其他收入毛利率稳定在 54%。2 季度毛利率 14%，环比上升 1.1 百分点，好于市场和我们预期的 11-12%，其中汽车毛利率 6.4%，环比上升 0.9 百分点，我们认为主要受惠 成本下降和销量环比回升带来的规模效应。小鹏 2 季度维持高效的成本控 制，好于我们预期。研发/销售费用环比微增 8.6%/增长 13.3%，占收入比 例环比下降。4 季度公司净亏损 12.8 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company Kuaishou (1024 HK) with a target price of HKD 54.00, indicating a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of HKD 44.40 [1][18]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's Q2 2024 profits exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, slightly above market expectations due to a smaller-than-expected decline in live streaming revenue [2]. - The gross margin improved to 55.3%, up 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by better cost control and an increase in advertising and e-commerce revenue [2]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was RMB 4.7 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 74%, outperforming both the report's and market's expectations [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 126.97 billion in 2024, RMB 140.03 billion in 2025, and RMB 151.8 billion in 2026, with respective growth rates of 11.9%, 10.3%, and 8.4% [3][19]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 18.01 billion in 2024, RMB 22.03 billion in 2025, and RMB 26.42 billion in 2026, with significant growth rates of 77.2%, 23.3%, and 21.1% respectively [3][19]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for profits from 2024 to 2026, indicating a favorable long-term outlook [2]. Business Segment Performance - E-commerce GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) grew by 15% year-on-year, although this was below the expected 19%, primarily due to the impact of top streamers' inactivity and competition [2]. - Online marketing revenue increased by 22%, driven by accelerated growth in external advertising revenue, benefiting from increased spending on paid short dramas and local businesses [2]. - Live streaming revenue saw a slight decline of 7% year-on-year, which was better than expected due to improved operational efficiency [2]. Valuation - The report has adjusted the target price to HKD 54, based on a 10x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous target of HKD 55 [2]. - The current price corresponds to an 8.1x P/E ratio for 2025, indicating that the stock is undervalued relative to its growth potential [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kingsoft Corporation (3888 HK) with a target price of HKD 30.00, representing a potential upside of **46.0%** from the current closing price of HKD 20.55 [1] Core Views - Kingsoft's Q2 2024 revenue increased by **13% YoY** to RMB 2.47 billion, with adjusted operating profit up **14% YoY** to RMB 880 million, driven by better-than-expected gaming performance [1] - Gaming revenue grew **20% YoY**, while WPS revenue growth slowed to **6% YoY** due to the transition of B2B business to SaaS model [1] - The launch of **JX3: Infinite** mobile game in June 2024 achieved over **11 million daily active users**, with **62% being returning players**, expected to drive significant revenue growth in Q3 2024 [1] - WPS upgraded its AI strategy with the release of **WPS AI 2.0** in July 2024, enhancing user experience and stickiness for both individual and enterprise customers [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2024 revenue breakdown: Gaming contributed RMB 1.286 billion (+20% YoY), while WPS contributed RMB 1.188 billion (+6% YoY) [5] - Adjusted operating profit margin improved to **35%** in Q2 2024, up from 32% in Q1 2024 [5] - WPS's contract liabilities increased by **24% YoY**, indicating a solid foundation for long-term growth despite the short-term slowdown in revenue growth [1] Business Segment Analysis - WPS revenue growth slowed to **6% YoY** in Q2 2024, compared to **17% YoY** in Q1 2024, due to the SaaS transition [1] - WPS subscription revenue breakdown: Personal subscriptions grew **20% YoY**, while institutional licensing and subscriptions declined by **2%** and **27% YoY**, respectively [1] - Gaming revenue growth was driven by mobile games, partially offset by a decline in **JX3** PC game revenue due to a high base in the previous year [1] Future Outlook - The report expects gaming revenue to accelerate in Q3 2024, driven by the strong performance of **JX3: Infinite** and the upcoming expansion pack in October 2024 [1] - Full-year gaming revenue is expected to achieve **double-digit growth**, supported by the strong performance of mobile games [1] - WPS's AI upgrades and SaaS transition are expected to enhance long-term growth prospects, despite short-term revenue headwinds [1] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue forecast adjusted to RMB 9.668 billion, a **2% decrease** from the previous forecast of RMB 9.882 billion [4] - 2025E revenue forecast adjusted to RMB 10.586 billion, a **6% decrease** from the previous forecast of RMB 11.304 billion [4] - Adjusted operating profit margin is expected to improve to **35%** in 2025E, up from **31%** in the previous forecast [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a moderate year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the year, driven by stable growth in the natural gas sales segment and restructuring of the gas station business [1] - The natural gas sales segment is projected to see a pre-tax profit increase of 5% year-on-year, with retail gas volume expected to rise by approximately 2% and wholesale gas volume increasing by 30% due to the integration of gas stations [1] - The LNG segment is anticipated to remain stable, while the oil and gas extraction business is expected to contribute less to profits, with a projected 76% decline in pre-tax profit for this segment [1] - The company has announced a mid-term dividend distribution for the first time in this interim report, with a dividend of approximately 0.15 RMB per share, maintaining a 40% payout ratio [1] - The company has a robust cash flow and cash position, with a net cash of approximately 15.5 billion RMB at the end of 2023, and an average free cash flow of about 9 billion RMB per year from 2024 to 2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first half of 2024 is estimated at 93,999 million RMB, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [2] - The pre-tax profit for the first half of 2024 is projected to be 6,986 million RMB, a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit for the first half of 2024 is expected to be 3,315 million RMB, also a 2.9% increase year-on-year [2] - The company’s gas sales volume is expected to grow from 30.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 33.3 billion cubic meters in 2024, representing a 9.7% growth [2] - The LNG processing volume is projected to increase from 2.83 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 3.08 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a utilization rate of 49% [2] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The operating cash flow for 2024 is estimated at 13,295 million RMB, with capital expenditures projected at 5,013 million RMB [5] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio increasing from 40% in 2023 to 45% in 2025 [5] - The net debt-to-equity ratio is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating a net cash position [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 44.00, indicating a potential upside of 138.9% from the current closing price of HKD 18.42 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's 1H24 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit increasing by 68% and 147% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1.67 billion and RMB 530 million respectively. The gross margin improved significantly by 9 percentage points to 32.1% due to enhanced operational efficiency and optimized procurement strategies [1][2]. - WuXi AppTec secured 26 new comprehensive projects, bringing the total to 167, including 29 Phase II or III projects and 9 projects nearing submission. The company anticipates a BLA submission in the U.S. within this year and the initiation of CMO projects starting next year [1][2]. - The North American revenue contribution rose to 49% in 1H24, up from 40% for the entire year of 2023, with expectations that North America will contribute over 40% of total revenue for the year [1][2]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to RMB 34.0 billion, RMB 51.4 billion, and RMB 68.3 billion respectively, while adjusted net profit forecasts have been increased to RMB 9.3 billion, RMB 14.2 billion, and RMB 19.2 billion [2][3]. - The report reflects a downward adjustment of the perpetual growth rate to 2% due to uncertainties in the competitive landscape, while the DCF valuation model continues to be applied [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - For 2024E, the projected revenue is RMB 3.402 billion with an adjusted net profit of RMB 934 million, reflecting a net profit margin of 27.4% [3][7]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in revenue and profitability over the next few years, with projections indicating a revenue increase to RMB 6.827 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.922 billion by 2026E [3][7].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|-----------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 2.99 | 港元 4.72 | +57.9% | 越秀服务 (6626 HK) 2024 上半年业绩符合预期，现金充裕支持股份回购 2024 上半年业绩大致符合预期：收入同比增 29.7%至 19.6 亿元人民币（下 同），和我们的预测基本一致（为我们全年预测 41 亿元的 47.8%）。整体 毛利率同比下跌 2.2 个百分点至 25.9%，比我们全年预测 24.9%略高。净利 润同比增 12.1%至 2.78 亿元，为我们全年利润预测约 50.5%。每股中期股 息拟定为0.1港元（2023年上半年：0.089港元），派息比率维持在50%。 在管面积扩张至 66.7 百万平方米：截至 2024 年 6 月，在管面积/合约面积 环比增长 14.6%/13.5%至 8,880 万/6,670 万平方米。上半年新签约项目 59 个，新签合约面积为926万平方米，其中约599万平方米来自第三方项目， 占 65%。鉴于外拓能力提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 雅生活服务 (3319 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.20, indicating a potential upside of 18.5% from the current closing price of HKD 2.70 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a significant loss for the first half of 2024, estimated between RMB 1.54 billion to RMB 1.70 billion, compared to a net profit of RMB 840 million in the same period of 2023. This loss is attributed to a sharp decline in revenue and profit from value-added services and a substantial impairment provision of approximately RMB 2.7 billion to RMB 2.9 billion for trade receivables from related parties [1][2]. - Revenue growth for the first half of 2024 is projected to be below 10%, influenced by slow sales and deliveries from the parent company 雅居乐 and another major shareholder 绿地. The full-year revenue growth is anticipated to be around 5% [2][3]. - The gross margin is expected to slightly decline, with the contribution from value-added services continuing to decrease, projected to account for only 4% of total revenue in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.379 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%. However, the core profit for 2023 is expected to drop significantly to RMB 1.552 billion, reflecting a 30.3% decline [3][7]. - The forecast for core earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease to RMB 0.72 in 2024, down from RMB 1.09 in 2023, with a further decline expected in 2025 before a modest recovery in 2026 [3][7]. - The company maintains a net cash position of RMB 3.95 billion at the end of 2023, which is 1.1 times its market capitalization, providing a buffer against market volatility [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 2.60, reflecting a cautious outlook on the industry and the company's performance challenges [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 3.064 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. However, operating profit decreased by 32% to RMB 392 million, resulting in an operating profit margin of 12.8%, down from 20.0% in the same period of 2023 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 67.5% to RMB 72.29 million, with a net profit margin dropping over 5 percentage points to 2.36% [1]. - Despite the opening of 59 new restaurants in the first half of 2024, the overall performance remained under pressure, particularly for the main brand, which saw declines in key metrics such as table turnover rate and same-store sales [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.499 billion, with a growth rate of 8.6%. Net profit is expected to be RMB 257 million, a decrease of 43.3% compared to the previous year [4][6]. - The company has decided not to distribute an interim dividend due to the significant drop in net profit [1]. Store Expansion and Guidance - The company has adjusted its store opening guidance, planning to open only 80 new restaurants in mainland China and 13 overseas, down from previous targets of 80-100 and 15-20 respectively [1][2]. - The performance of the main brand, which accounts for 73% of revenue, has been negatively impacted by a decline in table turnover rate from 4.3 to 3.8, marking the lowest since 2019 [1]. Market Context - The report reflects a cautious stance on the restaurant industry, noting that competition remains intense and the overall consumer environment is weak, which has contributed to the downward revision of performance expectations [2][5].